Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[lights]

[HeyHeyHey]

As a big country fan one of the interesting things to me is seeing “Speechless”, “Beautiful Crazy” and “Whiskey Glasses” all be so high and right around the same projected spots for many it seems like. “God’s Country” is close to those 3 as well. It will be interesting to see what lands where and even which lower country songs will just make the cut. I think “Speechless” will be the highest of the country songs just because of its crossover success leading the great longevity on the chart.

In terms of songs in other genres, I’m really happy to see “Hey, Look Ma I Made It” become a good sized hit and I’m hoping it has a fairly decent placement.

Also glad to see Shawn Mendez have a great year with a couple big hits that will be high on the YE list.

Thanks to all who have predicted this year. I’d try next year but wouldn’t even know where to start.

[GPMB]

looks like Shotta Flow is likely to make the bottom 10 of the year end! nothing but good news here

[spicymapping]

intro

TL, DR:
Locked: Knockin' Boots, Shotta Flow
Added: Easier, Soltera

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Without Me (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. 7 Rings (+1)
5. Happier (-1)
6. Wow. (=)
7. SICKO MODE (=)
8. bad guy (+2)
9. thank u, next (-1)
10. High Hopes (-1)
11. Sucker (=)
12. Talk (=)
13. Dancing With a Stranger (+2)
14. Eastside (-1)
15. Shallow (-1)
16. Going Bad (=)
17. Better (=)
18. Girls Like You (=)
19. Sweet But Psycho (=)
20. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
21. I Don't Care (=)
22. Drip Too Hard (=)
23. Truth Hurts (=)
24. Señorita (+4)
25. Suge (-1)
26. Please Me (-1)
27. ZEZE (-1)
28. Better Now (-1)
29. If I Can’t Have You (+2)
30. Youngblood (-1)
31. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
32. Money (=)
33. Speechless (+3)
34. a lot (-1)
35. MIA (-1)
36. Look Back At It (-1)
37. No Guidance (+10)
38. ME! (+2)
39. Thotiana (-2)
40. Beautiful Crazy (-2)
41. God's Country (+1)
42. Lucid Dreams (-3)
43. Pop Out (+2)
44. Whiskey Glasses (-1)
45. Mo Bamba (-4)
46. Wake Up In The Sky (-2)
47. Be Alright (-1)
48. Pure Water (=)
49. Close To Me (=)
50. Taki Taki (=)
51. You Say (=)
52. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (+2)
53. Envy Me (-1)
54. You Need To Calm Down (+4)
55. Con Calma (-2)
56. Ran$om (+8)
57. when the party’s over (-2)
58. Money In The Grave (+2)
59. Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
60. Murder on My Mind (-4)
61. Act Up (-4)
62. I Like It (-1)
63. Leave Me Alone (-1)
64. breathin (-1)
65. The London (+3)
66. Goodbyes (+3)
67. Someone You Loved (+4)
68. Close Friends (-3)
69. bury a friend (-3)
70. Baby Shark (-3)
71. The Git Up (+1)
72. Worth It (-2)
73. Trip (=)
74. Swervin (=)
75. Rumor (=)
76. Tequila (=)
77. Knockin' Boots (+7)
78. Look What God Gave Her (-1)
79. Clout (-1)
80. Good as You (-1)
81. Love Lies (-1)
82. Shotta Flow (=)
83. Talk You Out Of It (-2)

Projected Cutoff - 1500

84. Eyes on You (-1)
85. Robbery (=)
86. Beautiful (=)
87. Never Really Over (=)
88. Beautiful People (+15) - WA: 1
89. GIRL (-1)
90. Walk Me Home (-1)
91. All To Myself (+7) - WA: 2
92. Here Tonight (-2)
93. All I Want For Christmas is You (-2)
94. This Is It (-2)
95. EARFQUAKE (-2)
96. Panini (+12) - WA: 2
97. Miss Me More (-3)
98. Girls Need Love (-3)
99. Go Loko (+3) - WA: 4, WL: 2
100. Put a Date On It (-4)

117. Press (+5) - WA: 8, WL: 6
118. Rearview Town (+6) - WA: 6, WL: 5
121. Easier (NEW) - WA: 7, WL: 5
125. Soltera (NEW) - WA: 10, WL: 3

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. Wow.
6. Truth Hurts
7. 7 Rings
8. Happier
9. Sucker
10. Talk
11. Sicko Mode
12. thank u, next
13. High Hopes
14. Senorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. No Guidance
21. Suge
22. Ran$om
23. Better
24. If I Can't Have You
25. Girls Like You
26. Sweet But Psycho
27. MIDDLE CHILD
28. Drip Too Hard
29. You Need To Calm Down
30. Pop Out
31. Goodbyes
32. Money In The Grave
33. Someone You Loved
34. Please Me
35. ZEZE
36. Better Now
37. Youngblood
38. The London
39. BUWYG, IB
40. Money
41. The Git Up
42. Speechless
43. A Lot
44. MIA
45. Look Back At It
46. ME!
47. Thotiana
48. Beautiful People
49. Beautiful Crazy
50. God's Country
51. Lucid Dreams
52. Whiskey Glasses
53. Mo Bamba
54. Wake Up In The Sky
55. Be Alright
56. Pure Water
57. Knockin' Boots
58. Close To Me
59. Taki Taki
60. You Say
61. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
62. Panini
63. Envy Me
64. Circles
65. Con Calma
66. My Type
67. When the Party's Over
68. Beer Never Broke My Heart
69. Boyfriend
70. Murder on My Mind
71. Act Up
72. I Like It
73. Leave Me Alone
74. Breathin
75. Baby
76. Close Friends
77. Bury a Friend
78. Hot Girl Summer
79. Trampoline
80. Baby Shark
81. Cash s**t
82. Worth It
83. Only Human
84. Lover
85. How Do You Sleep?
86. Trip
87. Swervin
88. Rumor
89. Tequila
90. One Thing Right
91. The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home
92. Look What God Gave Her
93. Clout
94. Good as You
95. Love Lies
96. Shotta Flow
97. Talk You Out of It
98. All To Myself
99. Rearview Town
100. Eyes on You

[GPMB]

here's what my prediction of the top 50 of the year end will look like, based on rimetm/fhas's data and how i think the songs will do in the remainder of their chart weeks

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Wow.
5. bad guy
6. Happier
7. 7 rings
8. Talk
9. SICKO MODE
10. High Hopes
11. Sucker
12. thank u, next
13. Truth Hurts
14. Señorita
15. Dancing with a Stranger
16. Eastside
17. I Don’t Care
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. Better
21. No Guidance
22. Girls like You
23. Sweet but Psycho
24. Suge
25. MIDDLE CHILD
26. Someone You Loved
27. Drip Too Hard
28. Ransom
29. If I Can’t Have You
30. Goodbyes
31. Pop Out
32. Better Now
33. ZEZE
34. Money in the Grave
35. Speechless
36. Youngblood
37. Circles
38. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored
39. Please Me
40. Money
41. Look Back at It
42. Beautiful People
43. a lot
44. ME!
45. Beautiful Crazy
46. MIA
47. You Need to Calm Down
48. Thotiana
49. Be Alright
50. Whiskey Glasses

[rimetm]

To clarify my statement last week, data up to August 17 remains the fhas numbers, I'm just doing my own calculations for the weeks afterward unless I get more info straight from him. I'm happy with how bullets and matchups are turning out, but I wouldn't deign to say I've got close to the actual metric insight he has, so my numbers aren't gonna be either as precise or as accurate (I will occasionally have to slightly fudge metric numbers to make things work, primarily because everything but sales I do in intervals of 100k). For full disclosure, here's this week's breakdown for the non-interpolated top 22.



September 14, 2019 - 43/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

[inverse]

Aug 21, 2019 0:35:58 GMT -5 inverse said:

Really worried for Never Really Over. It’s gotten 11 weeks in the top 50 which is a lot but songs like that have a tendency to fall really hard once they exit the top 50, like both End Game and River last year had 10 and 11 weeks top 50 last year but once they fell below they were out in three weeks. If that happens it would wind up with like 155000 points.

Ugh why did I have to get this stupid prediction right? This is a week of sadness and boredom as the highest change in position is #14 and #15 switching places and there's only one new entry and not an interesting one at that. At least it looks like Go Loko will probably get wrecked by Post Malone and then hopefully not return.

Sorry about the weird spaces in the middle the table was acting up it's gonna get snatched up

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1424150
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1068200
3	Halsey	Without Me	1040150
4	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
5	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	793820
6	Post Malone	Wow	785980
7	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
8	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
9	Billie Eilish	Bad Guy	701350
10	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
11	Khalid	Talk	644600
12	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	635900
13	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
14	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	586980
15	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
16	Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
17	Khalid	Better	536600
18	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
19	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
20	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
21	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	459900
22	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
23	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	421800
24	DaBaby	Suge	390950
25	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
26	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
27	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	359700
28	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
29	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	343130
30	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
31	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
32	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
33	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	335700
34	Cardi B	Money	331850
35	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
36	Dan + Shay	Speechless	324400
37	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
38	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
39	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	306100
40	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	305270
41	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
42	Blake Shelton	God's Country	300400
43	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	298500
44	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
45	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
46	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
47	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
48	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
49	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
50	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
51	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	263500
52	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
53	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
54	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
55	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
56	City Girls	Act Up	246500
57	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
58	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	240800
59	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	239750
60	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	235600
61	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	232950
62	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
63	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	223800
64	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
65	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
66	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
67	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
68	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
69	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	208550
70	Young Thug, J Cole, Travis Scott	The London	207450
71	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	201500
72	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
73	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
74	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
75	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ 6ix9ine	Swervin	191400
76	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
77	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
78	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
79	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	183350
80	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	181800
81	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
82	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
83	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
84	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
85	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
86	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070
87	Dan + Shay	Tequila	159850
88	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	159650
89	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	157200
90	Summer Walker f/ Drake	Girls Need Love	156320
91	Brett Young	Here Tonight	156280
92	Scotty McCreery	This Is It	153950
93	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520
94	Yo Gotti f/ Lil Baby	Put A Date On It	152450
95	Marshmello f/ CHVRCHES	Here With Me	151970
96	Tyler The Creator	Earthquake	151800
97	Jonas Brothers	Cool	149950
98	Khalid & Normani	Love Lies	149850
99	YNW Melly f/ Kanye West	Mixed Personalities	145230

100

Ed Sheeran f/ Khalid

Beautiful People

143600

[Deleted]

I did an estimate of the cutoff back in August and I said that by September we would have a much clearer view on what the cutoff for the 2019 year end list would be. Since it's now September I'm going to estimate it again using the 3 criteria below and my own opinions on the songs still charting (by opinions I mean estimating their chances of making the list proper).

1) I'm using fhas/rimetm's predictions list like I did back in August.

2) I'm not including the week of November 24th, 2018 in calculating the cutoff.

3) I am assuming that all songs that will make the year end list have now charted.

Songs that are above 180K in fhas/rimetm's predictions: 79

Songs that are guaranteed to lock in the future:

-Panini

-Beautiful People

-My Type

-Boyfriend

Songs that are likely to lock in the future:

-Trampoline

-Cash Shit

-Only Human

-Baby

-How Do You Sleep?

-Hot Girl Summer

-Circles

Songs that are a toss up for making the list:

-All To Myself

-Otro Trago

-One Thing Right

-China

-Lover

Songs that are unlikely to make the list:

-Go Loko

-Rearview Town

-Easier

-Press

-Callaita

-Lalala

Assuming all the songs in the toss up category and above pass the normal 180K cutoff line (I count 16 songs in total), that brings the total number of songs above the cutoff at 95. This leaves us with the remaining songs under the normal 180K cutoff line that can still make the list:

96) Eyes On You
97) Trip
98) Tequila
99) Talk You Out Of It
100) This Is It

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Walk Me Home

This Is It is the projected song at #100 in this scenario. However, the projected YE cutoff could be higher or lower to account for error.

[spicymapping]

I think we can officially say the top 5 is set now.

1. OTR
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. Wow.

After that though....? If 24th is included, it’s a tossup between Happier and 7 Rings for 6, If TH holds and Nov 24th is out, it could make a top 10 run as well. Sucker and talk are most likely 8 & 9 but that could change, and SM is all dependent on the 24th.

[Groovy]

Thoughts on this new country-gospel song The Father, My Son and the Holy Song? It’s currently number one in sales.

[nathanalbright]

Sept 12, 2019 15:51:05 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Thoughts on this new country-gospel song The Father, My Son and the Holy Song? It’s currently number one in sales.

It's probably a little late for this track to make the YE, I would think....I haven't listened to it yet though myself.

[Deleted]

My prediction for ten is sucker, it just feels like the tenth biggest song of the year

[rockgolf]

We're getting close, people! There's only 8 or 9 charts that will be included in the 2019 year-end charts.

With that in mind, here's where things stand on my predictions for the top 100 inclusive of the September 14, 2019 chart.

As I've done for the past few weeks, the only songs listed outside the top 100 are those that could make the year-end list, if they maintain their current chart position over the remaining 8 or 9 weeks. Of course, songs head down the chart are less likely to make it than those climbing.

Wow. and Bad Guy each climb a spot in the top ten, with the former about 200 points behind #4. It's going to be close. Bad Guy could possible catch up with both those track to pip into 4th in the last week or two. Sucker looks ready to re-enter the top ten next week, but could again get pushed out in about a month's time by Talk.

Truth Hurts is a longshot to get to the top ten but likely to reach the year-end top 15.

Beautiful People and Knockin' Boots look to both have locked top 100 spots, based on my estimated cut-off of 1,100 points.

[Groovy]

Quick question, me and friend were arguing the other day about which year was better for music between 2007 and 2009, I said 2007 because aside from the ringtone rap, it was a good year all around and 2009 was dominated by one act. He said 2009 because of the new artists, what is your guys take between 2007 and 2009?

[Deleted]

Sept 15, 2019 11:36:50 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Quick question, me and friend were arguing the other day about which year was better for music between 2007 and 2009, I said 2007 because aside from the ringtone rap, it was a good year all around and 2009 was dominated by one act. He said 2009 because of the new artists, what is your guys take between 2007 and 2009?

I prefer 2007 because it seemed like all the genres had songs shining equally and I think overall it had much better music. Most of the rap that year wasn't that bad.

[lights]

Sept 15, 2019 11:36:50 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Quick question, me and friend were arguing the other day about which year was better for music between 2007 and 2009, I said 2007 because aside from the ringtone rap, it was a good year all around and 2009 was dominated by one act. He said 2009 because of the new artists, what is your guys take between 2007 and 2009?

As far as the year end charts go, 2007 all day. Welcome to the black parade, Thnks fr th mmrs, Runaway love, Rehab, Snow, Stronger, Who Knew, Makes me wonder etc. Strong year.

[inverse]

Sept 15, 2019 11:36:50 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Quick question, me and friend were arguing the other day about which year was better for music between 2007 and 2009, I said 2007 because aside from the ringtone rap, it was a good year all around and 2009 was dominated by one act. He said 2009 because of the new artists, what is your guys take between 2007 and 2009?

2007 was pretty good but 2009 is the best year in music history like IMO the 30 best songs to have hit #1 5 of them made the 2009 year end list.

Also the bad songs of 2007 really were uniquely awful like Wind It Up and TWO Hinder songs on that year end list

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

"Goodbyes"' ascendance back to the Top 3 could allow the possibility of it ending up within the Top 25 in the Year-End.

[brady47]

Sept 15, 2019 11:36:50 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Quick question, me and friend were arguing the other day about which year was better for music between 2007 and 2009, I said 2007 because aside from the ringtone rap, it was a good year all around and 2009 was dominated by one act. He said 2009 because of the new artists, what is your guys take between 2007 and 2009?

2007 imo. "Say It Right", "Irreplaceable", "The Sweet Escape", "Big Girls Don't Cry", "Umbrella" - there were sooo many classics.

2009 was amazing too with electropop though - "I Gotta Feeling", "Hot N Cold" and "Poker Face" are some of the most iconic hits ever

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

2007

All Good Things, Apologize, Cry For You, Don't Stop The Music, Gimme More, No One, Bleeding Love, Say It Right, Stronger, The Way I Are, Umbrella, What Goes Around..., Smack That, Makes Me Wonder, Girlfriend, Big Girls Don't Cry, Sweet Escape

2009

Boom Boom Pow, Day N Night, Empire State Of Mind, Down, Fireflies, Just Dance, Poker Face, I Gotta Feeling, Good Girls Gone Bad, Halo, My Life Would Suck Without You, Paparazzi, Party In The US, Hot N Cold, Right Round, She Wolf, Use Somebody, Whatcha Say, When Love Takes Over, You Belong With Me, Live Your Life, Single Ladies, I'm Yours

I think 2009 is much better

[aussie1]

2007 but 2009 was still fantastic.

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Locked This Week:
-Knockin' Boots

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future:
-Beautiful People
-Panini
-My Type
-Boyfriend

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 79. Here are the other songs that can still make it:

78) Knockin' Boots 2032 (+134)

79) Rumor 2012

- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -

80) Clout 1991
81) Good As You 1968
82) Look What God Gave Her 1965
83) Trip 1952
84) Shotta Flow 1877

85) Tequila 1866

86) Love Lies 1803

87) Eyes On You 1795

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

88) This Is It 1774
89) Talk You Out Of It 1768
90) All To Myself 1764 (+99)
91) Walk Me Home 1733

92) Go Loko 1710 (+60)

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -

93) Rearview Town 1447 (+87)
94) Press 1429 (+74)
95) Easier 1428 (+68)
96) Trampoline 1319 (+128)
97) Callaita 1231 (+92)
98) Cash s**t 1222 (+124)
99) Otro Trago 1189 (+105)
100) One Thing Right 1120 (+115)
101) Only Human 1090 (+123)
102) Baby 1037 (+140)
103) How Do You Sleep? 1011 (+132)
104) Lalala 883 (+102)
105) China 877 (+112)
106) Hot Girl Summer 787 (+146)

107) Lover 636 (+121)

108) Circles 571 (+308)

109) On Chill 501 (+122)
110) Motivation 435 (+108)

Dropouts:

Shotta Flow 1877 (Will probably make the 2019 year end list.)

Call You Mine 1093 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

83) Shotta Flow 1877
84) Eyes On You 1795
85) Trip 1788
86) This Is It 1774

87) Talk You Out Of It 1768

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

88) All To Myself 1764 (+99)

89) Tequila 1742

90) Walk Me Home 1733

91) Go Loko 1710 (+60)

Love Lies is at 1653 points and it will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Circles 3343
?) Knockin' Boots 3238
?) Trampoline 2471
?) Cash s**t 2338
?) Baby 2297

?) How Do You Sleep? 2199

?) Only Human 2197

?) One Thing Right 2155

?) Hot Girl Summer 2101
87) Rumor 2012
88) Clout 1991
89) Good As You 1968
90) Look What God Gave Her 1965
91) Trip 1952
92) China 1885
93) Shotta Flow 1882
94) Tequila 1866
95) All To Myself 1863
96) Otro Trago 1819
97) Love Lies 1803
98) Lalala 1801
99) Press 1799
100) Eyes On You 1795
100) Rearview Town 1795

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
102) Callaita 1783
103) This Is It 1774
104) Go Loko 1770
105) Talk You Out Of It 1768
106) Walk Me Home 1733
107) Lover 1725
108) Easier 1700
?) On Chill 1599
?) Motivation 1407

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

91) China 1885
92) Shotta Flow 1882
93) All To Myself 1863
94) Otro Trago 1819
95) Lalala 1801
96) Press 1799
97) Eyes On You 1795
97) Rearview Town 1795

99) Trip 1788

100) Callaita 1783

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) This Is It 1774
102) Go Loko 1770
103) Talk You Out Of It 1768

104) Tequila 1742

105) Walk Me Home 1733

106) Lover 1725
107) Easier 1700

?) Love Lies 1653

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Knockin' Boots

Pretty Likely:

Circles
Trampoline
Baby
How Do You Sleep?

Slightly Likely:
Cash s**t
Only Human
Hot Girl Summer

All To Myself

Toss Up:
One Thing Right

China

Lalala

Lover

Slightly Unlikely:

Otro Trago

Press

Go Loko

Pretty Unlikely:

Rearview Town
Callaita

On Chill

No Chance:

Easier

Motivation

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Got a little bored and decided to calculate the points from rimetm/fhas' predictions but with the "same points for the remaining weeks" stuff and here are some notable points (I used the 43/53 weeks):

1. The Top 4 would practically be the same (OTR, Sunflower, Without Me, BG), but the #5 would grant more girlpower in the Top 5 as it will be Ariana in #5 with "7 Rings" instead of Post with "Wow." (If this happens, Post would land back-to-back with #6 in the YE, as he held there last year with "Psycho", but he still gets this recognition if he lands at #5 instead of Ariana with "rockstar")

2. The remaining #7-#10 featured Khalid's "Talk" being higher than both "Happier" and "Sucker". Lizzo with "Truth Hurts" closes out the possible YE Top 10 (which it should)

3. "ME!" and "You Need To Calm Down" would be next to one another. On a similar note, "Going Bad" and "No Guidance", both feature Drake are back-to-back.

4. The highest non-Top 10 song would possibly be also the highest non-Top 20 thanks to Dan + Shay's "Speechless" peaking #24.

==

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. 7 Rings
6. Wow.
7. Talk
8. Happier (from #80)
9. Sucker
10. Truth Hurts

11. Sicko Mode (from #42)
12. Dancing With A Stranger
13. High Hopes
14. Señorita
15. I Don't Care
16. Thank U, Next
17. Eastside (from #77)
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. No Guidance

21. Suge
22. Better
23. Ransom
24. If I Can't Have You
25. Girls Like You (from #10)
26. Sweet But Psycho
27. Middle Child
28. Drip Too Hard
29. Speechless
30. Someone You Loved

31. Goodbyes
32. ME!
33. You Need To Calm Down
34. Money In The Grave
35. Whiskey Glasses
36. Pop Out
37. God's Country
38. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
39. Better Now (from #13)
40. Zeze

41. Youngblood (from #36)
42. Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored
43. Please Me
44. Money
45. Look Back At It
46. Beer Never Broke My Heart
47. The Git Up
48. A Lot
49. The London
50. Beautiful Crazy

51. Mia
52. Thotiana
53. Be Alright
54. Beautiful People
55. Lucid Dreams (from #12)
56. Knockin' Boots
57. Pure Water
58. Envy Me
59. Mo Bamba
60. Wake Up In The Sky

61. You Say
62. Shotta Flow
63. Close To Me
64. Taki Taki
65. Con Calma
66. All To Myself
67. Panini
68. When The Party's Over
69. My Type
70. Murder On My Mind

71. Circles (#71 last year has one of the word classifies the word in general)
72. Act Up
73. I Like It (from #7)
74. Bury A Friend
75. Leave Me Alone
76. Trampoline
77. Close Friends
78. Baby Shark
79. Breathin'
80. Boyfriend

81. Cash S**t
82. Worth It
83. Baby
84. Go Loko
85. Swervin'
86. One Thing Right
87. Otro Trago
88. Clout
89. Rumor
90. Press

91. Lover
92. Callaita
93. Look What God Gave Her
94. Trip (from #92)
95. Good As You
96. Tequila (from #32)
97. China
98. Love Lies (from #19)
99. Eyes On You
100. Talk You Out Of It

*Bazzi/Camila's "Beautiful" ended at #103, so at least gives me hope*

[GPMB]

oh fuck Go Loko might actually have a chance to make it

[lights]

[Deleted]

With Knockin' Boots now locked, there will at least be 10 country songs on the 2019 year end list.

1) Speechless
2) Beautiful Crazy
3) Beer Never Broke My Heart
4) Whiskey Glasses
5) God's Country
6) The Git Up
7) Knockin' Boots
8) Rumor
9) Look What God Gave Her
10) Good As You

There are also other country songs that can potentially scrape the bottom of the list.

11) Tequila
12) All To Myself
13) Eyes On You
14) Talk You Out Of It
15) This Is It
16) Rearview Town

And then you have those songs whose country status are disputed.

17) Old Town Road
18) One Thing Right

Country is really having a good year considering 3 years ago there were only 3 songs that got in the year end, and now we have 10 to 18 songs that will get in.

[hydraflare]

Billboard is fucking stupid

[Deleted]

Sept 17, 2019 15:15:02 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

Billboard is f**king stupid

I wish I could like this comment an infinite anount of times.

[GPMB]

Sept 17, 2019 15:15:02 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

Billboard is f**king stupid

what happened now...

[Deleted]

Sept 17, 2019 15:20:23 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Sept 17, 2019 15:15:02 GMT -5 hydraflare said:

Billboard is f**king stupid

what happened now...

Pretty much all the charts but the main one (and I think artist and BB200) are now locked and you need to pay a monthly subscription to view them.