Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[twelvevinylrecords]

Sept 5, 2019 9:06:37 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Sept 4, 2019 23:05:16 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Guys, I really like Trampoline. Like, a lot. I want this song to be big, and it keeps rising and should hit the top 40 next week, let's get it.

So... you're hoping it will bounce up???

Boooooooo...... but yes

[Groovy]

Anyone want to do an unpopular opinion thread about the year end charts on here, I strongly do because I got a lot of opinions.

[nathanalbright]

Yes, I'm always game for flaming hot takes and unpopular opinions, my own and others'.

[inverse]

Seems kinda off topic maybe you should Make another thread about that lol

[rockgolf]

Meanwhile, back on topic:

Including the chart dated September 6, 2019, here are my predictions for the top songs of the year:

No changes to the top ten this week, but both Wow. and Bad Guy will climb a spot next week, and Jonas Brothers look set to return to the top ten in two weeks. Khalid's Talk could replace the JoBros before mid-October, and really I don't expect much change in the top ten after that.

Shawn Mendes looks like his second hit this year will overtake his first next week. He is beside himself!

No new songs look to have "locked", but Knockin' Boots and Beautiful People should guarantee a top 100 spot next week.

As with last week, I'm only listing songs below #100 that (were they to average their current position for the rest of the year) could make the "real" top 100. Most of these songs won't. I expect the three Taylor Swift songs qualifying this week will drop enough next week that they'll disappear from the list. Similarly, anything below #50 on this week's chart is likelier to fall off than make the top 100.

[rimetm]

Due to some videos I've been making, I've been doing the estimations for the Hot 100 myself up to September 7. As such, take them with even more heapings of salt than you already would. I've changed the color once more to indicate the decreasing potential reliability of it all.

September 7, 2019 - 42/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

Oh, speaking of the videos I was working on...

[spicymapping]

Here's how the top 20 will probably play out with and without 11/24

WITH
1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. Wow.
6. Happier
7. 7 Rings
8. Talk
9. Sucker
10. SICKO MODE
11. thank u, next
12. High Hopes
13. Truth Hurts
14. Senorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. Better

WITHOUT
1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Bad Guy
4. Without Me
5. Wow.
6. 7 Rings
7. Talk
8. Sucker
9. Happier
10. Truth Hurts
11. Senorita
12. SICKO MODE
13. High Hopes
14. thank u, next
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. Suge

[inverse]

On crazy thing about this year is that it might actually break the record for the most songs to make the year end list without peaking in the top 30. Like there are sooooooo many potential songs. So far we have

Confirmed:
Envy Me
Worth It
Close Friends
Baby Shark

99% Confirmed:
Swervin
Clout
Look What God Gave Her
Good As You

And a whole bunch more contenders:
Knockin Boots (this would have ranked at #30 were it not for Taylor and still might get there)
Talk You Out Of It
Eyes On You
Shotta Flow
All To Myself
Walk Me Home
Girl
Cash Shit (another song where it might not have peaked yet)

And we're still 10 weeks out who knows what else we might get. We could totally get 12 songs and break the record

[moonlite]

Sept 7, 2019 13:06:57 GMT -5 inverse said:

On crazy thing about this year is that it might actually break the record for the most songs to make the year end list without peaking in the top 30. Like there are sooooooo many potential songs. So far we have

Confirmed:
Envy Me
Worth It
Close Friends
Baby Shark

99% Confirmed:
Swervin
Clout
Look What God Gave Her
Good As You

And a whole bunch more contenders:
Knockin Boots (this would have ranked at #30 were it not for Taylor and still might get there)
Talk You Out Of It
Eyes On You
Shotta Flow
All To Myself
Walk Me Home
Girl
Cash s**t (another song where it might not have peaked yet)

And we're still 10 weeks out who knows what else we might get. We could totally get 12 songs and break the record

What year currently holds the record and with how many songs?

[inverse]

Top years:

2017: 11
2018: 8
2014: 6
2016: 5
2000, 2011, 2012: 4
2010, 2015: 3

[GPMB]

"MIA" and "ME!" are now right next to each other on the year end predictions lol

[Deleted]

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Knockin' Boots 3188

?) All To Myself 2821
?) Lover 2725
?) Trampoline 2421
?) Baby 2343
?) Cash s**t 2316
?) Only Human 2162
?) How Do You Sleep? 2148
86) Never Really Over 2083
87) Rumor 2012
88) Clout 1991
89) Good As You 1968
90) Hot Girl Summer 1967
91) Look What God Gave Her 1965
92) Trip 1952
93) One Thing Right 1918
94) Rearview Town 1907
95) Shotta Flow 1882
96) Earfquake 1869
97) Tequila 1866
98) Easier 1854
99) China 1813

100) Go Loko 1809

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Love Lies 1803
102) Otro Trago 1800
103) Callaita 1796
103) Press 1796
105) Eyes On You 1795
106) This Is It 1774
107) Talk You Out Of It 1768
108) Walk Me Home 1733
?) Call You Mine 1581

?) Motivation 1269

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:

Knockin' Boots

Pretty Likely:

Trampoline

Baby

How Do You Sleep?

Shotta Flow

Slightly Likely:

Cash s**t

Only Human

Hot Girl Summer

Toss Up:

All To Myself

Lover

One Thing Right

Slightly Unlikely:

Easier
China
Otro Trago

Pretty Unlikely:

Never Really Over

Rearview Town

Earfquake

Go Loko

Callaita

Press

Motivation

No Chance:

Call You Mine

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 7, 2019 16:49:13 GMT -5 GPMB said:

"MIA" and "ME!" are now right next to each other on the year end predictions lol

I'll be shocked if "MIA" and "ME!" did end up next to each other in the Year-End.

[GPMB]

Sept 8, 2019 1:54:28 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Sept 7, 2019 16:49:13 GMT -5 GPMB said:

"MIA" and "ME!" are now right next to each other on the year end predictions lol

I'll be shocked if "MIA" and "ME!" did end up next to each other in the Year-End.

it could, as long as next week is its last (which seems likely given the fact that Post is going to bomb the week of 9/21) and it doesn’t get enough points next week to pass A Lot

[lights]

I'm sure this question has been asked many times before here, but I'm new so what's the consensus on whether the 24 Nov week will count? And what clues do we have as to whether it will or not? Thanks.

[rockgolf]

Sept 8, 2019 8:56:17 GMT -5 lights said:

I'm sure this question has been asked many times before here, but I'm new so what's the consensus on whether the 24 Nov week will count? And what clues do we have as to whether it will or not? Thanks.

Different people have different opinions. I think, based on last year's dates, that Billboard will have a 52-week year, which, if I've counted right, will go from Dec 1, 2018 to Nov 17, 2019. That means the last week of both Nov 2018 & Nov 2019 will not be included in any year-end chart.

[lights]

Sept 8, 2019 16:26:31 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Sept 8, 2019 8:56:17 GMT -5 lights said:

I'm sure this question has been asked many times before here, but I'm new so what's the consensus on whether the 24 Nov week will count? And what clues do we have as to whether it will or not? Thanks.

Different people have different opinions. I think, based on last year's dates, that Billboard will have a 52-week year, which, if I've counted right, will go from Dec 1, 2018 to Nov 17, 2019. That means the last week of both Nov 2018 & Nov 2019 will not be included in any year-end chart.

Is there any precedent for billboard leaving out weeks from counting towards any year-end chart?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

If "If I Can't Have You" ends up at #23, it will be interesting because it's Shawn Mendes' third time landing a song of his in that number in the Billboard Year-End Hot 100 (with "Stitches" in 2016 and "There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back" in 2017 being the other two)

[rockgolf]

lights said:

Is there any precedent for billboard leaving out weeks from counting towards any year-end chart?

Yes, I believe so. I recall seeing a reference to this on this site but can’t remember where.

[nathanalbright]

Sept 8, 2019 2:06:54 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Sept 8, 2019 1:54:28 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

I'll be shocked if "MIA" and "ME!" did end up next to each other in the Year-End.

it could, as long as next week is its last (which seems likely given the fact that Post is going to bomb the week of 9/21) and it doesn’t get enough points next week to pass A Lot

Since Me! crashed hard this week below #50 it seems nearly certain that it will fall out of the charts next week with the Posty album bomb, and will likely not be gaining very many more points towards its YE ranking.  

[Deleted]

RIP Never Really Over & Earfquake. Both dropped out and I don't see them returning anytime soon. They'll miss by a comfortable margin.

[tallen2001]

My Type looks like it’s on its way to being locked and Trampoline and Cash Shit are getting closer. When’s the last time their was this many different female rappers on a year end list?

[spicymapping]

Sept 9, 2019 21:30:01 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

My Type looks like it’s on its way to being locked and Trampoline and Cash s**t are getting closer. When’s the last time their was this many different female rappers on a year end list?

I don't think ever, especially if we're counting shaed for some reason

[tallen2001]

Sept 9, 2019 21:51:38 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Sept 9, 2019 21:30:01 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

My Type looks like it’s on its way to being locked and Trampoline and Cash s**t are getting closer. When’s the last time their was this many different female rappers on a year end list?

I don't think ever, especially if we're counting shaed for some reason

Yeah my wording made that look funny. I’m just hoping Trampoline makes the list.

[Deleted]

Trampoline should be a pretty safe bet for the YE list as long as it stays in the top 50 for at least another 6 weeks (or 5 weeks in the top 40).

[Deleted]

Sept 8, 2019 19:59:55 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

If "If I Can't Have You" ends up at #23, it will be interesting because it's Shawn Mendes' third time landing a song of his in that number in the Billboard Year-End Hot 100 (with "Stitches" in 2016 and "There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back" in 2017 being the other two)

I think Ludacris had 3 songs at #77 in the 2000s if I remember right.

[tallen2001]

Sept 9, 2019 23:16:29 GMT -5 @slipperyslope said:

Sept 8, 2019 19:59:55 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

If "If I Can't Have You" ends up at #23, it will be interesting because it's Shawn Mendes' third time landing a song of his in that number in the Billboard Year-End Hot 100 (with "Stitches" in 2016 and "There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back" in 2017 being the other two)

I think Ludacris had 3 songs at #77 in the 2000s if I remember right.

Yep. Southern Hospitality in 2001, Rollout(My Business) in 2002, and Get Back in 2005.

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Locked This Week:
-The Git Up
-Goodbyes

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future:
-Beautiful People
-Panini
-My Type
-Boyfriend

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 78. Here are the other songs that can still make it:

78) Rumor 2012

- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -

79) Clout 1991
80) Good As You 1968
81) Look What God Gave Her 1965
82) Trip 1952
83) Knockin' Boots 1898 (+129)
84) Shotta Flow 1877 (+110)

85) Tequila 1866

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

86) Love Lies 1803
87) Eyes On You 1795
88) This Is It 1774
89) Talk You Out Of It 1768

90) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -

91) All To Myself 1665 (+109)
92) Go Loko 1650 (+63)
93) Rearview Town 1360 (+95)
93) Easier 1360 (+88)
95) Press 1355 (+70)
96) Trampoline 1191 (+123)
97) Callaita 1139 (+87)
98) Cash s**t 1098 (+124)
99) Call You Mine 1093 (+72)
100) Otro Trago 1084 (+100)
101) One Thing Right 1005 (+117)
102) Only Human 967 (+125)
103) Baby 897 (+138)
104) How Do You Sleep? 879 (+128)
105) Lalala 782 (+97)
106) China 765 (+107)
107) Hot Girl Summer 641 (+148)
108) Lover 515 (+144)
109) On Chill 379 (+112)
110) Motivation 327 (+103)
111) Circles 263 (+263)

Dropouts:
Never Really Over 1621 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Earfquake 1549 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

82) Knockin' Boots 1898 (+129)
83) Shotta Flow 1877 (+110)

84) Eyes On You 1795

85) Trip 1788

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

86) This Is It 1774
87) Talk You Out Of It 1768

88) Tequila 1742

89) Walk Me Home 1733

Love Lies is at 1653 points and it will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Knockin' Boots 3188
?) Circles 2893
?) All To Myself 2755
?) Trampoline 2421
?) Cash s**t 2338
?) Baby 2277
?) Only Human 2217
?) One Thing Right 2175
?) How Do You Sleep? 2159
?) Hot Girl Summer 2121
88) Rumor 2012
89) Clout 1991
90) Good As You 1968
91) Look What God Gave Her 1965
92) Lover 1955
93) Trip 1952
94) Shotta Flow 1877
95) Tequila 1866
96) China 1835
96) Rearview Town 1835
98) Love Lies 1803
99) Easier 1800
100) Eyes On You 1795
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) Otro Trago 1784
102) Go Loko 1776
103) Press 1775
104) This Is It 1774
105) Talk You Out Of It 1768
106) Lalala 1751
107) Callaita 1748
108) Walk Me Home 1733
?) Call You Mine 1525
?) On Chill 1499
?) Motivation 1357

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

93) Shotta Flow 1877
94) China 1835
94) Rearview Town 1835
96) Easier 1800
97) Eyes On You 1795
98) Trip 1788
99) Otro Trago 1784
100) Go Loko 1776
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) Press 1775
102) This Is It 1774
103) Talk You Out Of It 1768
104) Lalala 1751
105) Callaita 1748
106) Tequila 1742
107) Walk Me Home 1733
?) Love Lies 1653

[spicymapping]

Judging by the HHRB charts, EARFQUAKE was most likely #101, ahead of Uno, Playing Games, and 223’s, so don’t count it out just yet.

[Deleted]

Sept 10, 2019 5:21:06 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Judging by the HHRB charts, EARFQUAKE was most likely #101, ahead of Uno, Playing Games, and 223’s, so don’t count it out just yet.

It might have a slight chance, but it would need to re-chart for 4 more weeks in the 90s for it even have a shot (5 weeks to be above the cutoff).

While I agree that it might re-chart later (definitely not the week of the Post Malone album bomb), I don't see it getting a full 20 week run.