Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[iggyamo]

I’m actually really surprised Ballin’ is doing this well, and even has a chance to hit the year end, even if it’s not very likely though. I mean, it is the fourth single off of a album that flopped pretty hard and with very little promotion except for Pure Water. I mean, if I feel like it would’ve been better if they promoted On God considering the song has larger star power, just sounds like a single, and honestly, I think it’s a bit better, not much though.

(P.S. I almost said third because I completely forgot 100 bands existed, who decided it was a good single)

[Deleted]

Sept 25, 2019 7:52:52 GMT -5 Dadude#0839 said:

All of the country songs.. Speechless is still charting as well 37 weeks

Tequila theoretically could have charted for 52 weeks if it wasn't knocked out by the Christmas songs.

And had a much better chance of making 2 year end lists.

[Dadude#0839]

True

[inverse]

There might be 14 country songs on the year end list if Nov 24 counts and Girl somehow makes it that might be the most ever. Maybe even 15 if "I Don't Know About You" climbs into the top 40

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 25, 2019 17:00:48 GMT -5 inverse said:

There might be 14 country songs on the year end list if Nov 24 counts and Girl somehow makes it that might be the most ever. Maybe even 15 if "I Don't Know About You" climbs into the top 40

And to think 2016 YE only had 3 country songs then 2019 possibly having 15. It is quite impressive.

[Deleted]

I personally think GIRL and All To Myself are the lowest and highest possible songs to be the cutoff songs for the 2019 year end list.

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All of the songs listed below are pretty likely to make the list proper:

1) My Type
2) Trampoline
3) Cash Shit
4) Only Human
5) Baby
6) How Do You Sleep?
7) Boyfriend
8) Hot Girl Summer

9) Circles

If this is the case, then this will be the projected cutoff (using fhas/rimetm's YE predictions list):

91) All To Myself

92) Eyes On You

93) Trip

94) Tequila

95) Talk You Out Of It

96) This Is It

97) Walk Me Home

98) Go Loko

99) Robbery

100) GIRL

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

All the songs listed below are a complete toss up for the YE list:

1) One Thing Right

2) China

3) Lover

If they all make it, the projected cutoff will be this (let's assume the 3 songs listed above are 91-93):

91) One Thing Right

92) China

93) Lover

94) All To Myself
95) Eyes On You
96) Trip
97) Tequila
98) Talk You Out Of It
99) This Is It

100) Walk Me Home

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The following songs are unlikely in making the YE list:

1) Press

2) Callaita

3) Otro Trago

4) Lalala

5) I Don't Know About You.

The following songs probably charted too late to make the YE list:

1) Time

2) On Chill

3) Hot

4) Memories

5) Take What You Want

I think at most 6 of these 10 songs can possibly pass 180K points (in fhas/rimetm's list), which puts All To Myself right at #100.

[GPMB]

Apr 15, 2019 10:49:52 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Also when CHR picks up Speechless soon it’d be funny if it eventually returns to the hot 100 like Tequila and gets locked.

this is hilarious in retrospect

[kingscouser]

Wow some predictions have sunflower at Number 1, is that even possible? I like Sunflower but having anything but Old Town Road at number one sounds crazy. It reminds me of 2016 where Drake and The Chainsmokers had a big year but somehow an acoustic Justin Bieber song held onto the year end number 1.

[spicymapping]

Sept 26, 2019 4:53:12 GMT -5 kingscouser said:

Wow some predictions have sunflower at Number 1, is that even possible? I like Sunflower but having anything but Old Town Road at number one sounds crazy. It reminds me of 2016 where Drake and The Chainsmokers had a big year but somehow an acoustic Justin Bieber song held onto the year end number 1.

“Some” is just me and I can confirm that it is completely impossible - just a side effect of a flat formula.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 26, 2019 4:53:12 GMT -5 kingscouser said:

Wow some predictions have sunflower at Number 1, is that even possible? I like Sunflower but having anything but Old Town Road at number one sounds crazy. It reminds me of 2016 where Drake and The Chainsmokers had a big year but somehow an acoustic Justin Bieber song held onto the year end number 1.

I believed that "One Dance" would end up at YE #1, but fell off quickly then both "Love Yourself" and "Sorry" had the longevity to end up at #1 and #2. The Chainsmokers, on the other hand, could've released "Closer" a little earlier and could've got a chance at YE #1.

[inverse]

Week 44

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1469450
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1112000
3	Halsey	Without Me	1065150
4	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
5	Post Malone	Wow	818880
6	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	793820
7	Billie Eilish	Bad Guy	757250
8	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
9	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
10	Khalid	Talk	687800
11	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	670600
12	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
13	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	612880
14	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
15	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
16	Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
17	Khalid	Better	536600
18	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
19	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	502800
20	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	496200
21	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
22	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
23	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
24	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	430500
25	DaBaby	Suge	422050
26	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	372530
27	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
28	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
29	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	358270
30	Dan + Shay	Speechless	346800
31	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
32	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
33	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
34	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
35	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	335700
36	Cardi B	Money	331850
37	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
38	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	322700
39	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
40	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
41	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	306100
42	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
43	Blake Shelton	God's Country	300400
44	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	294050
45	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
46	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
47	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
48	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	276800
49	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
50	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	274300
51	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	271900
52	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	268700
53	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
54	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	266350
55	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
56	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
57	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
58	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
59	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	255750
60	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
61	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
62	City Girls	Act Up	246500
63	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
64	Young Thug, J. Cole, Travis Scott	The London	232350
65	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	228530
66	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
67	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
68	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
69	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
70	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
71	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
72	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	207350
73	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
74	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
75	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
76	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ 6ix9ine	Swervin	191400
77	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
78	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
79	Lil Nas X	Panini	188730
80	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
81	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	181800
82	Ed Sheeran f/ Khalid	Beautiful People	176550
83	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	174150
84	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
85	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
86	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
87	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
88	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
89	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	162100
90	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070
91	Dan + Shay	Tequila	159850
92	Summer Walker f/ Drake	Girls Need Love	156320
93	Brett Young	Here Tonight	156280
94	Scotty McCreery	This Is It	153950
95	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520
96	Yo Gotti f/ Lil Baby	Put A Date On It	152450
97	Marshmello f/ CHVRCHES	Here With Me	151970
98	Tyler The Creator	Earthquake	151800
99	Jonas Brothers	Cool	149950
100	Khalid & Normani	Love Lies	149850

Next week will be a good one as we will be finally be relieved of the unfortunate situation of Happier at #4. 

Hey Look Ma, I Made It will not finish in the year end top 50 and it's gonna fall to 53 next week.

Speechless rises into the top 30 to become the highest song to have not reached the top 10, although if the November 24 week is counted it's still behind Youngblood and it's in danger of falling off next week which would put it within the margin of error to be switched with Youngblood or Look Back At It. Pop Out will probably pass all three of them at some point.

There will probably be very little movement in the 80's and 90's in the next few weeks, the only possible new entry next week is My Type (should be a given unless it falls to like #40)

Miss Me More seems to be a somewhat good guess for the cutoff right now but it could potentially fall down to Girls Need Love which would be just a ridiculous song to finish on the year end list

[nathanalbright]

Miss Me More at 160k is still a ridiculously low cutoff point.

EDIT:  Are you going to add Katy Perry to the Con Calma points?  I think she got counted on the song for her (terrible) remix.

[lights]

Miss Me More is so good I'd love it to make the year-end but I don't think it's likely.

[Deleted]

The cutoff this year is so low, that songs like Sit Next To Me could have made it if they charted in 2019.

[GPMB]

it would be really cool if GIRL made the year end

[Dadude#0839]

Sept 26, 2019 20:04:14 GMT -5 GPMB said:

it would be really cool if GIRL made the year end

It would be interesting as well, but songs with sub top 40 peaks made it before, IDGAF and Dura come to mind, it could happen

[nathanalbright]

It looks like we're going to have some of those this year--see "Close Friends" and "Talk You Out Of It."

[Deleted]

Sept 26, 2019 20:33:20 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

It looks like we're going to have some of those this year--see "Close Friends" and "Talk You Out Of It."

Confirmed:

Close Friends (Peak 47 In 2019)

Worth It (Peak 48)

Toss Up:

This Is It (Peak 42)

One Thing Right (Peak 42 Maybe?)

China (Peak 43 Maybe?)

GIRL (Peak 44)

Walk Me Home (Peak 49)

Go Loko (Peak 49)

Callaita (Peak 52 Maybe?)

Talk You Out Of It (Peak 57)

[HeyHeyHey]

It's too bad that "Even Though I'm Leaving" by Luke Combs is in a prime position to be caught between calander years. It is shaping up to be a huge country hit for hit this fall and will peak on Country Airplay in November/December. I know it can't rack up enough points this year and next year it may not have enough weeks on.

At least he has an album come nh out in November that should give the song a boost and hopefully a top 20 peak on the Hot 100.

[cedric]

Sept 26, 2019 21:50:05 GMT -5 HeyHeyHey said:

It's too bad that "Even Though I'm Leaving" by Luke Combs is in a prime position to be caught between calander years. It is shaping up to be a huge country hit for hit this fall and will peak on Country Airplay in November/December. I know it can't rack up enough points this year and next year it may not have enough weeks on.

At least he has an album come nh out in November that should give the song a boost and hopefully a top 20 peak on the Hot 100.

If this happens, this might be his 3rd single to get caught between years/almost made it after When It Rains It Pours and She Got the Best of Me.

Then all his singles so far could've been yearend hits if their chart runs were in the same year

[rockgolf]

My estimated top songs on the Billboard Hot 100 through the week of September 28, 2019. I'm thinking we got maybe 8, maybe only 7 more weeks before Billboard blows the whistle on year-end.

Wow. Sucker, and Bad Guy each climb one point in the top ten with the latter set up for even more gains. Wow. won't go any higher on this chart. Too much space between #3 & #4 (almost 2000 points). If Truth Hurts holds onto #1 another 3 or 4 weeks (not impossible by any means) she stands a good chance of creeping into the top ten.

Another week of no songs breaking the 1100 point barrier I originally thought would be needed to guarantee a year-end spot. And none likely next week either. I think I'll need to lower my standards...

[Dadude#0839]

Rooting for Trampoline to make it

[inverse]

That tie @ 999 points though. Pretty much everyone has All To Myself as the higher of the two songs so it should probably be above just for the sake of when it comes down to the wire and they're both near 100 it'll be a more accurate picture of how likely each one is to make it

[GPMB]

no way Eyes on You makes the year end and All to Myself doesn't

[spicymapping]

Haven't done one of these in a while but here's the graph of points. Unfortunately, it's gotta break zoom because of how much bigger the top 3 is than everything else. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JGiZDiB4mEiNzYg_fLJTX7giQGFVYPU-HY5Ij80pWJs/edit?usp=sharing

Also, I plugged in simon's predictions for next week & coupled with me using my big brain and not relying on this goddamn formula that somehow gets Mi Gente/Believer 99/100 right but thinks that sunflower will be #1, here are some educated guesses at the year end.

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. Bad Guy
5. Wow.
6. Happier
7. 7 Rings
8. Sucker
9. Talk
10. SICKO MODE
11. Truth Hurts
12. High Hopes
13. thank u, next
14. Senorita
15. Dancing With a Stranger
16. I Don't Care
17. Eastside
18. Going Bad
19. Shallow
20. Suge
21. Someone You Loved (I pray not top 20)
22. No Guidance
23. Better
24. Sweet But Psycho
25. Girls Like You
26. MIDDLE CHILD
27. Drip Too Hard
28. Ran$om
29. If I Can't Have You
30. ZEZE
31. Please Me
32. Panini
33. Better Now
34. Goodbyes
35. Money In The Grave
36. Speechless
37. You Need To Calm Down
38. break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored
39. Youngblood
40. Money
41. Pop Out
42. ME!
43. Look Back At It
44. a lot
45. MIA
46. Thotiana
47. Beautiful People
48. The Git Up
49. God's Country
50. Beautiful Crazy
51. Whiskey Glasses (Possibly 5 country songs in the top 50. Just wow.)
52. Lucid Dreams
53. Be Alright
54. Mo Bamba
55. Pure Water
56. Wake Up In The Sky
57. Envy Me
58. Close To Me
59. Taki Taki
60. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
61. The London
62. You Say
63. Beer Never Broke My Heart
64. Con Calma
65. when the party's over
66. Murder on My Mind
67. Act Up
68. Circles
69. Baby (double whammy)
70. I Like It
71. Leave Me Alone
72. bury a friend
73. Hot Girl Summer
74. Boyfriend
75. breathin
76. Trampoline
77. Close Friends
78. My Type
79. Knockin' Boots
80. Baby Shark
81. Worth It
82. Hot Do You Sleep?
83. Swevin
84. Rumor
85. Cash Shit
86. Only Human
87. Clout
88. Look What God Gave Her
89. Tequila
90. Good As You
91. One Thing Right
92. Love Lies
93. All To Myself 
94. Talk You Out of It
95. Shotta Flow
96. Eyes On You
97. On Chill
98. Beautiful
99. Lover
100. Robbery

[rockgolf]

Anybody here remember the URL of a website that kept summary info on not just pop hits but alternative hits too, grouped by year? I'm sure I found out about it on one of these threads, but I can't find it. It was personal, not corporate, and the first several usages were free, but after that you needed to subscribe.

[GPMB]

^^ on that topic i have mine too, based off rimetm's predictions

1. Old Town Road
2. Sunflower
3. Without Me
4. bad guy
5. Wow.
6. Happier
7. Talk
8. 7 rings
9. Sucker
10. SICKO MODE
11. High Hopes
12. Truth Hurts
13. thank u, next
14. Dancing with a Stranger
15. I Don’t Care
16. Senorita
17. Eastside
18. Shallow
19. Going Bad
20. Better
21. Someone You Loved
22. Suge
23. Girls like You
24. Sweet but Psycho
25. No Guidance
26. MIDDLE CHILD
27. Drip Too Hard
28. Ransom
29. If I Can’t Have You
30. Panini
31. Goodbyes
32. Money in the Grave
33. You Need to Calm Down
34. Speechless
35. Better Now
36. ZEZE
37. Youngblood
38. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored
39. Please Me
40. Pop Out
41. Money
42. Look Back at It
43. Beautiful People
44. a lot
45. ME!
46. Beautiful Crazy
47. MIA
48. Thotiana
49. The Git Up
50. Be Alright
51. Whiskey Glasses
52. Lucid Dreams
53. Circles
54. God’s Country
55. Pure Water
56. Envy Me
57. Mo Bamba
58. Wake Up in the Sky
59. You Say
60. Close to Me
61. Taki Taki
62. Hey Look Ma, I Made It
63. Con calma
64. The London
65. when the party’s over
66. Beer Never Broke My Heart
67. Murder on My Mind
68. Act Up
69. I Like It
70. Trampoline
71. bury a friend
72. Leave Me Alone
73. Close Friends
74. Baby Shark
75. My Type
76. breathin
77. Worth It
78. Cash s**t
79. Only Human
80. Baby
81. Knockin’ Boots
82. How Do You Sleep?
83. One Thing Right
84. Swervin
85. Boyfriend
86. Clout
87. Rumor
88. Hot Girl Summer
89. Look What God Gave Her
90. Trip
91. Memories
92. Good as You
93. Shotta Flow
94. Tequila
95. All to Myself
96. Love Lies
97. Lover
98. Eyes on You
99. Talk You Out of It
100. On Chill

[korbel16]

Praying that 7 rings stays at #7

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Still hoping that "Beautiful" ends up at the Billboard YE Hot 100 (even if it means "Talk You Out of It" does too)

[dovahduck]

"Earfquake" deserves :(