Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[Deleted]

I'm honestly happy that by the looks of things
This will be a year where we actually have multiple songs by different female rappers make the year end chart

Sweetie, Cardi, City Girls, Meghan Thee Stallion
And Nicki too as a feature on HGS

Here for this representation that we desperately need, even tho Saweetie isn't that good at rapping tbh 

[Deleted]

Sept 29, 2019 19:38:39 GMT -5 @mirza said:

I'm honestly happy that by the looks of things
This will be a year where we actually have multiple songs by different female rappers make the year end chart

Sweetie, Cardi, City Girls, Meghan Thee Stallion
And Nicki too as a feature on HGS

Here for this representation that we desperately need, even tho Saweetie isn't that good at rapping tbh 

There's also Lizzo, who had the biggest year out of all of them.

[narp]

Trampoline making the top 100? Pleasant surprise, that’s what happens when you don’t check here for a good while, last time it was bubbling under in the 110-115 range. Also Someone You Loved rose high, last time I checked it was in the lower range. I hope GIRL and Only Human get spots in this list.

[GPMB]

^ it still hasn't actually made the top 100 yet, but by next week it probably will and by the end of the year it will most likely be in the top 80

[Dadude#0839]

Bold prediction: Beautiful makes the year end list

[Deleted]

Assuming Memories debuts in the 20s, it would have to rise to the top 10 the week after and stay there to even have a shot at the list.

[Naos]

I would say I hope "Memories" gets caught between years, but given how long Maroon 5 singles tend to stick around, that's pretty high hopes.

[Deleted]

Sept 29, 2019 19:52:23 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Sept 29, 2019 19:38:39 GMT -5 @mirza said:

I'm honestly happy that by the looks of things
This will be a year where we actually have multiple songs by different female rappers make the year end chart

Sweetie, Cardi, City Girls, Meghan Thee Stallion
And Nicki too as a feature on HGS

Here for this representation that we desperately need, even tho Saweetie isn't that good at rapping tbh 

There's also Lizzo, who had the biggest year out of all of them.

Oh right, I think of Lizzo as a cross between R&B and rap cause girly got soul and pipes

[nathanalbright]

I don't think that's very likely, but if it can build up the usual longevity on radio it is possible that it could make the 2020 list, though I hope it just drops off and is forgotten.

Edit:  To make it clear I'm talking about the above Maroon 5 "Memories" thread.

[Deleted]

Using All To Myself/Beautiful People as the locking cutoff, that means 82 songs have locked their positions on the 2019 year end list.

This means that there's still 18 spots available on the list. Here are the songs that will pretty much get there in the future:

1) My Type

2) Trampoline

3) Cash Shit

4) Only Human

5) Baby

6) How Do You Sleep?

7) Boyfriend

8) Hot Girl Summer

9) Circles

That leaves 91 songs locked for the year end, with only 9 spots left for any remaining songs. I will divide these songs into 3 categories.

Toss Up Songs (Not Charting):

1) Eyes On You

2) Trip

3) Tequila

4) Talk You Out Of It

5) This Is It

6) Walk Me Home

7) Go Loko

8) Robbery

9) GIRL

Toss Up Songs (Still Charting):
1) One Thing Right

2) China

3) Lover
4) On Chill

Songs Unlikely To Make It (Still Charting):

1) Press

2) Callaita

3) Otro Trago

4) Lalala

5) I Don't Know About You

6) Time

7) Ballin'

8) Hot

9) Good As Hell

10) Memories

Pick 9 songs from the mix of 23 songs I listed above and there are all the songs for the Billboard 2019 year end list.

[Deleted]

Hopefully Good As Hell doesn't get caught in between years

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Sept 29, 2019 20:21:42 GMT -5 Naos said:

I would say I hope "Memories" gets caught between years, but given how long Maroon 5 singles tend to stick around, that's pretty high hopes.

And I thought Girls Like You would their blandest (that is, except for Cardi B's part) song. Unfortunately, I can see it getting lots of radio airplay, but as long as it doesn't get an improved remix or a "memorable" YouTube video, I'd hope it will also end up as a footnote in their Hot 100 chart history.

[korbel16]

Sept 29, 2019 20:22:07 GMT -5 @mirza said:

Sept 29, 2019 19:52:23 GMT -5 @delphox said:

There's also Lizzo, who had the biggest year out of all of them.

Oh right, I think of Lizzo as a cross between R&B and rap cause girly got soul and pipes

and a little bit of pop a la truth hurts

[tanooki]

Sept 29, 2019 15:00:07 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Anybody here remember the URL of a website that kept summary info on not just pop hits but alternative hits too, grouped by year? I'm sure I found out about it on one of these threads, but I can't find it. It was personal, not corporate, and the first several usages were free, but after that you needed to subscribe.

racpro.com i believe 

[Deleted]

So I realized I forgot to account for a few album bombs in calculating This Is It's score for my predictions list. Once I did so, I got an even higher score from my already pretty high score for the song (the old score was 1774 points). This still puzzled me considering most people pretty much give the song no chance of making the year end list at all. After some thinking, I realized that this is due to my method of allocating scores during album bomb weeks and Christmas time.

For example, This Is It debuted at #96 on the week of December 22nd, 2018. This was when the Christmas songs were starting to really show up on the charts, as well as having a large XXXTentacion album bomb that week and some leftovers from Meek Mill & 6ix9ine's album bombs last week. I counted all the Christmas songs, and the XXXTentacion, Meek Mill & 6ix9ine songs that weren't singles, and I got to a total number of 27. If all these songs didn't exist, This Is It would have debuted at #69. Because of this, I gave it the points at the position it would have got without the Christmas songs and album bombs.

Throughout This Is It's charting history, it had to endure 3 weeks of numerous Christmas songs filling the chart. It also had to endure multiple album bombs from XXXTentacion, Kodak Black, 21 Savage, A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie, Ariana Grande, Offset, Juice Wrld, Billie Eilish, Khalid and fading album bombs from Meek Mill and 6ix9ine. I also want to mention I also account for the Nipsey Hussle songs that charted due to his death, with the exception of Racks In The Middle. This is why the song's chart run appeared much weaker than it actually was. I have calculated the song's normal chart run and the chart run it would have had without all these album bombs and Christmas songs. The weeks where the normal chart run and theoretical chart run were different are in bold text.

Normal Chart Run:

96-84-100-57-53-52-53-49-42-52-45-51-53-55-64-68-89-90-97-94

Chart Run Without Album Bombs & Christmas Songs:

69-61-67-57-53-52-53-49-42-42-45-48-53-52-63-68-78-80-91-92

Because its theoretical chart run should have been much stronger, that means the song's total points would have been much higher as well. First of all, I want to mention that I have done this method to every song I have tracked and they usually don't differ much from fhas/rimetm's predictions. The reason why this one differs a lot is due to the fact it has endured way more album bombs and Christmas songs than any other song that I have tracked. I have calculated the song's total points using both methods, the first not accounting for album bombs and Christmas songs, and the second doing the current method I use that accounts for both.

Total Points Using Normal Chart Run: 1680

Total Points Accounting For Album Bombs & Christmas Songs: 1809

Using the former method, you can see the song seems to stand no chance of making the 2019 year end list. Using the latter and current method I'm using, it shows that the song has more of a chance than Eyes On You in my predictions. I know I'm the only person who thinks this way, and my score for this particular song might be way off. However, it definitely does have a running chance, and also proves that accounting for album bombs and Christmas songs can give a much higher score to a song, and in this case is the difference between being projected to miss and projected to make it.

PS: Eyes On You and Talk You Out Of It also benefited from me recalculating their scores but not as much.

[spicymapping]

NRO should be in that toss up group and Intro in the unlikely

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Sept 29, 2019 20:16:56 GMT -5 Dadude#0839 said:

Bold prediction: Beautiful makes the year end list

I can imagine my excitement if "Beautiful" projected in the final predictions NOT to make it, but it does by the official list.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

If everything lines up correctly, Youngblood could be #36 on the year-end list again.

[rockgolf]

Sept 29, 2019 23:50:44 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Sept 29, 2019 15:00:07 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Anybody here remember the URL of a website that kept summary info on not just pop hits but alternative hits too, grouped by year? I'm sure I found out about it on one of these threads, but I can't find it. It was personal, not corporate, and the first several usages were free, but after that you needed to subscribe.

racpro.com i believe 

Thanks. Alas, the site is displaying a Upgrades  in Progress sign.
I'll see if I can use the Internet Wayback machine on it.

ETA: Got to it, but I'm not willing to  spend $30 or more for what I'm looking for.
But thanks again. 

[Dadude#0839]

Sept 30, 2019 9:35:16 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

If everything lines up correctly, Youngblood could be #36 on the year-end list again.

That would be really interesting

[tanooki]

Sept 30, 2019 9:47:16 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Sept 29, 2019 23:50:44 GMT -5 tanooki said:

racpro.com i believe 

Thanks. Alas, the site is displaying a Upgrades  in Progress sign.
I'll see if I can use the Internet Wayback machine on it.

ETA: Got to it, but I'm not willing to  spend $30 or more for what I'm looking for.
But thanks again. 

I have a subscription, lmk what you want and I can get it for you

[narp]

Shaed released a Trampoline remix featuring ZAYN, should boost it in the coming weeks, at least enough to guarantee a spot on the YE

[lights]

Sept 30, 2019 15:13:55 GMT -5 narp said:

Shaed released a Trampoline remix featuring ZAYN, should boost it in the coming weeks, at least enough to guarantee a spot on the YE

Zayn is completely irrelevant and the remix made no noise, it won't affect its trajectory.

[spicymapping]

Sept 30, 2019 15:19:56 GMT -5 lights said:

Sept 30, 2019 15:13:55 GMT -5 narp said:

Shaed released a Trampoline remix featuring ZAYN, should boost it in the coming weeks, at least enough to guarantee a spot on the YE

Zayn is completely irrelevant and the remix made no noise, it won't affect its trajectory.

I’d say the same about Jhene Aiko+City Girls even that remix made enough noise for a big jump. Trampoline will have no problem with top 25.

[rockgolf]

Sept 30, 2019 14:34:08 GMT -5 tanooki said:

Sept 30, 2019 9:47:16 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Thanks. Alas, the site is displaying a Upgrades  in Progress sign.
I'll see if I can use the Internet Wayback machine on it.

ETA: Got to it, but I'm not willing to  spend $30 or more for what I'm looking for.
But thanks again. 

I have a subscription, lmk what you want and I can get it for you

Thanks, I've PM'ed you with the request, and the reason.

[lights]

Sept 30, 2019 15:23:46 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Sept 30, 2019 15:19:56 GMT -5 lights said:

Zayn is completely irrelevant and the remix made no noise, it won't affect its trajectory.

I’d say the same about Jhene Aiko+City Girls even that remix made enough noise for a big jump. Trampoline will have no problem with top 25.

Huh? Jhene Aiko has charted solo songs this year, and City Girls have had a hit this year. Zayn can't chart singles (or albums).

[spicymapping]

Sept 30, 2019 15:41:08 GMT -5 lights said:

Sept 30, 2019 15:23:46 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

I’d say the same about Jhene Aiko+City Girls even that remix made enough noise for a big jump. Trampoline will have no problem with top 25.

Huh? Jhene Aiko has charted solo songs this year, and City Girls have had a hit this year. Zayn can't chart singles (or albums).

I mean they're more relevant but still, the remix didn't do particularly well on paper but it was still enough for a big jump, and for it to stick there.

[GPMB]

there’s a less than 1% chance that 223’s will be able to make it but god i hope it does

[n13l5]

Sept 30, 2019 18:44:34 GMT -5 GPMB said:

there’s a less than 1% chance that 223’s will be able to make it but god i hope it does

its rising very fast though, it the chance really that small?

[Deleted]

Oct 1, 2019 3:19:24 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Sept 30, 2019 18:44:34 GMT -5 GPMB said:

there’s a less than 1% chance that 223’s will be able to make it but god i hope it does

its rising very fast though, it the chance really that small?

It literally needs to hit the top 10 next week and stay there to make it, which is pretty much impossible.