Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[spicymapping]

It's still so weird seeing everyone talk about This Is It with actual hope while my formula sits in the corner and thinks Here Tonight has a better chance.

[Deleted]

Oct 3, 2019 11:56:30 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

It's still so weird seeing everyone talk about This Is It with actual hope while my formula sits in the corner and thinks Here Tonight has a better chance.

The main reason I think This Is It has a better chance is because its first 3 weeks would have been in the 60s/70s if it wasn't for all those Christmas songs and album bombs in December (not to mention the Ariana/Billie Eilish album bombs deflated its chart position as well).

Also no worries I'm quite sure my formula overestimates its chances of making it. There's no way I see it being higher than Eyes On You.

[Deleted]

Unless its gains completely stall out, I think On Chill is a more likely than not bet for the 2019 year end list, probably in the bottom 10 though.

[tallen2001]

Oct 3, 2019 12:47:45 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Unless its gains completely stall out, I think On Chill is a more likely than not bet for the 2019 year end list, probably in the bottom 10 though.

If it does who would’ve thought Wale and Jeremih would’ve been on the 2019 YE. The year keeps on getting weirder.

[inverse]

^ Lol we've long since hit the apex of weirdness with this year with artists on the YE, that was back when Snow, Billy Ray Cyrus, and Brendon Urie 3 TIMES hit the year end list. You can even throw in Tyga (maybe) and 5 Seconds Of Summer in there even though they both made it last year. But imagine someone in 2017 telling you those people would be on the 2019 year end hot 100!

[nathanalbright]

Oct 3, 2019 22:12:17 GMT -5 inverse said:

^ Lol we've long since hit the apex of weirdness with this year with artists on the YE, that was back when Snow, Billy Ray Cyrus, and Brendon Urie 3 TIMES hit the year end list. You can even throw in Tyga (maybe) and 5 Seconds Of Summer in there even though they both made it last year. But imagine someone in 2017 telling you those people would be on the 2019 year end hot 100!

And that's not even getting into Baby Shark in the Top 100 or a comeback that could lead to 2 Jonas Brothers (!) songs in the Top 100.  But yeah, Wale and Jerimeh only adds to the weirdness we had already established.

[sirskimask]

HITR doesn't have enough time to make it onto this year's list unless it stays top 3/4 for the remaining 7 weeks (which is highly unlikely). Shouldn't have a problem making 2020 though

[GPMB]

as the one unique sounding country hit of the year (not counting the rap fusions like Old Town Road and The Git Up), I'm hopeful that God's Country will be able to make the top 50, but sadly I doubt it will

it's currently #46 on rimetm's predictions (the without 11/24 version, since I don't think Billboard will count that week towards the 2019 chart year), and Goodbyes, Money in the Grave, You Need to Calm Down, and Panini are the ones that are guaranteed to pass it, putting God's Country at #50 (most of these songs are good anyway so I don't have a problem), but you also have the ones that aren't guaranteed but are likely such as The Git Up, Beautiful People, and Circles. at least one of these will probably be able to pass GC as well, and in the case of the latter two i wouldn't care that much since i like both songs (and LOVE Circles), but I'd still be a little bit bummed out for GC to miss top 50

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Predictions for Hot 100 2020

Songs That Could End Up Getting Caught: basically songs in trouble of getting their charts runs cut off by years, especially with Christmas season in coming
hot girl bummer by blackbear - ROOTING FOR THIS TRASH THING TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN YEARS...even if the streaming is really good right now. ARGH!
Even Though I’m Leaving by Luke Combs - it could end up getting caught but Luke Combs seems to have better than average runs for his singles so only time will tell
Lover by Taylor Swift - very, very likely to get caught...although, if the radio increases, it could save this song. seriously hoping it doesn't get caught since it's one of her best singles in a while
223’s by YNW Melly feat. 9lokknine - huge on streaming and basically nowhere else...but if Melly gets out of prison well, publicity is his best tool
Camelot by NLE Choppa - also huge on streaming but with a video to boot, honestly expect it to hang around the Top 20 for a bit if the momentum keeps up

Songs that could repeat:
Talk by Khalid - most likely hitting the 52 week rule but if it ends up like Love Lies or Believer, it could notch enough points to land in the bottom ten
I Don’t Care by Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - the song's run is towards it's end but Sheeran and Bieber tend to be radio darlings so it could possibly hit 52 weeks
No Guidance by Chris Brown feat. Drake - currently in the Top 5 but I can see its sales, stream and even radio drop fast
Ransom by Lil Tecca - it's in the Top 5 right now but unless your Lil Nas X, viral rap songs don't tend to have much longevity once all the hype fades, expect it out of the top 50 sooner than later

Pretty Much Guaranteed to Make Next Years list:
Take What You Want by Post Malone feat. Ozzy Osbourne and Travis Scott - the fan favorite off of Hollywood's Bleeding, expect it to be a huge hit once the radio push and music video come the new year
Memories by Maroon 5 - all ready a radio darling without any music video yet, and if they get *checks featured rapper list* DaBaby for the remix, they have the urban crossover. ugh.
Beautiful People by Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid - this could end up being the Eastside of 2020
Goodbyes by Post Malone feat. Young Thug - on it's way out of the top 10 but Post is basically the radio's favorite "rapper" at this point
Circles by Post Malone - in the Top 10 and will be in the Hot 100 for less than 15 by the time year-end list comes around. And radio is still strong
bad guy by Billie Eilish - will most likely last a whole 52 weeks
Truth Hurts by Lizzo - same as bad guy
Señorita by Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello - see the previous two songs
Someone You Loved by Lewis Capaldi - expect it to linger in the Top 5 for a few months or so, strap in folks. sigh
Panini by Lil Nas X - in the top 5 right now, expect it to get a healthy run
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM by Travis Scott - don't expect this to be a huge-monster hit and the song's not all that good but expect it to land a decent chart run off of goodwill from SICKO MODE alone
10,000 Hours by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber - a country pop crossover with two artists the radio absolutely loves??? If this does not end up in the at the very least in the Top 20 of the year-end list, I'll be shocked

Outliers: too early to tell but they could become hits
Graveyard/clementine - honestly not a lot of buzz around either of these songs right now...but Halsey's album is scheduled to drop January so I could see a rebound for either. Plus Graveyard is really catchy.
South of the Border - the video just dropped...but Camila Cabello hasn't had the best of track record when it's come to her recent singles and neither has Cardi B
INTRO - even though it's only new to the charts and it could hit the top 10, hype for KIRK is fading surprisingly fast so I don't think it's this song that's gonna stick around, almost similar to what's happened to J. Cole's albums

[spicymapping]

I'd also put On Chill, Ballin', Hot & Time in likely to get caught.

[Dylan :)]

With the talk about year end mashups the other day, I forget if I posted this in here yet or not :) It’s my mashup of what I considered the top songs of the summer to be

[GPMB]

Oct 5, 2019 7:14:45 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Songs that could repeat:
Talk by Khalid - most likely hitting the 52 week rule but if it ends up like Love Lies or Believer, it could notch enough points to land in the bottom ten

I wouldn’t be so confident that Talk will repeat on next year’s YE, it only has either 11 or 12 chart weeks for next year

[lurker2]

Question: if Highest in the Room or 10k Hours were to stay in the top 5 til the end of the year, would they make the year end list?

[spicymapping]

Oct 5, 2019 14:01:59 GMT -5 lurker2 said:

Question: if Highest in the Room or 10k Hours were to stay in the top 5 til the end of the year, would they make the year end list

Yes, although I seriously doubt 10KH will.

[n13l5]

Oh Plaeeese dont let Robbery make it, there is nothing I want more than for Robbery to miss the YE list
Yeah its an obsession of mine im aware, probably not healthy but thats what that 'song' did to me

[inverse]

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1489850
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1129500
3	Halsey	Without Me	1077550
4	Post Malone	Wow	831380
5	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
6	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	793820
7	Billie Eilish	Bad Guy	782450
8	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
9	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
10	Khalid	Talk	707500
11	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	687700
12	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
13	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	626030
14	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
15	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
16	Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
17	Khalid	Better	536600
18	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	533300
19	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	522900
20	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
21	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
22	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
23	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	464100
24	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
25	DaBaby	Suge	437150
26	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	385330
27	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	385170
28	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
29	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
30	Dan + Shay	Speechless	357500
31	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
32	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
33	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
34	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
35	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	335700
36	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	334100
37	Cardi B	Money	331850
38	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
39	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	321650
40	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
41	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
42	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	306100
43	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	305900
44	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
45	Blake Shelton	God's Country	300400
46	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
47	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	287350
48	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	285600
49	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
50	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	284300
51	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
52	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
53	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	274300
54	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
55	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	266550
56	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
57	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
58	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
59	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
60	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
61	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
62	City Girls	Act Up	246500
63	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
64	Young Thug, J. Cole, Travis Scott	The London	243950
65	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	241430
66	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
67	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
68	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	217350
69	Lil Nas X	Panini	215280
70	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
71	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
72	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
73	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
74	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
75	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
76	Ed Sheeran f/ Khalid	Beautiful People	193250
77	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
78	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ 6ix9ine	Swervin	191400
79	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
80	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
81	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
82	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	181800
83	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	174150
84	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
85	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
86	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
87	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
88	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
89	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	162100
90	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070
91	Dan + Shay	Tequila	159850
92	Summer Walker f/ Drake	Girls Need Love	156320
93	Brett Young	Here Tonight	156280
94	Scotty McCreery	This Is It	153950
95	SHAED	Trampoline	153700
96	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520
97	Yo Gotti f/ Lil Baby	Put A Date On It	152450
98	Saweetie	My Type	152440
99	Marshmello f/ CHVRCHES	Here With Me	151970
100	Tyler The Creator	Earthquake	151800

Next week there's only one possible new entry, the inconsequential arrival of Rearview Town. In all likelihood that isn't gonna happen and it's just gonna fall off the hot 100. Two weeks from now there's possibilities for Cash Shit, Boyfriend, Only Human, and Circles.

Dancing With A Stranger is probably gonna pass thank u next at some point and even after getting passed by Truth Hurts it'll land squarely at 13 if it can avoid falling off for the remainder of the year.

It looks like If I Can't Have You is gonna fall short of #23 and probably won't even get there at any point this year. To do so it'd have to increase in points by enough to either pass Sweet But Psycho, or to pass Girls Like You and have Suge just evaporate in the next few weeks. It actually seems to be in freefall now, it took a hit of -8.

It also looks like there might be 3 or maybe even 4 songs to make the year end top 50 with a peak of below 20 which I think would be a first time record.

[spoons]

I want robbery to make it so that it can show up on multiple worst lists.

But also even if the song is total trash the chorus is undeniable

[GPMB]

Youngblood getting a second #36 year end in a row seems like pretty much a dead hope at this point. It's at #34 on rimetm's predictions (again, just like i did in that above post about God's Country, i'm doing the not counting 11/24 version) and Ransom, Someone You Loved, and Goodbyes (unless it somehow falls off hard, which is possible considering the continued gains for Circles) are all guaranteed to pass it. also, Panini probably won't pass Youngblood but there's an extremely slight chance it will

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

^ Which lands "Youngblood" in the #38-#42 range.

[inverse]

Oct 5, 2019 21:14:47 GMT -5 spoons said:

I want robbery to make it so that it can show up on multiple worst lists.

But also even if the song is total trash the chorus is undeniable

It is indeed undeniable that there is a chorus.

It's also pretty set in stone that the chorus is really bad and features Juice WRLD screaming ridiculous lyrics like "Now I'm running from her love. I'm not fast so I'm making it worse"

[iggyamo]

Oct 6, 2019 0:00:43 GMT -5 inverse said:

Oct 5, 2019 21:14:47 GMT -5 spoons said:

I want robbery to make it so that it can show up on multiple worst lists.

But also even if the song is total trash the chorus is undeniable

It is indeed undeniable that there is a chorus.

It's also pretty set in stone that the chorus is really bad and features Juice WRLD screaming ridiculous lyrics like "Now I'm running from her love. I'm not fast so I'm making it worse"

Honestly, the whole appeal of the song is drunk karaoke, that’s is quite literally the only environment I heard the song, and honestly, it’s great at being that, no matter how much we didn’t really need it. I definitely heard it more than a couple songs trying to make it near the bottom of the charts.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 5, 2019 21:14:47 GMT -5 spoons said:

I want robbery to make it so that it can show up on multiple worst lists.

But also even if the song is total trash the chorus is undeniable

Also am morbidly hoping this happens, since with the exception of Someone You Loved and possibly One Thing Right, there haven't been any truly horrendous songs that had longevity on the charts for year-end lists.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Also, now that Lil Nas X is officially no longer a one hit wonder, I wonder if his next single will be from his 7 EP (C7osure or Rodeo) or whether he'll start building hype for a debut album.

[nick64]

Oct 5, 2019 7:14:45 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Predictions for Hot 100 2020

Songs That Could End Up Getting Caught: basically songs in trouble of getting their charts runs cut off by years, especially with Christmas season in coming
hot girl bummer by blackbear - ROOTING FOR THIS TRASH THING TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN YEARS...even if the streaming is really good right now. ARGH!
Even Though I’m Leaving by Luke Combs - it could end up getting caught but Luke Combs seems to have better than average runs for his singles so only time will tell
Lover by Taylor Swift - very, very likely to get caught...although, if the radio increases, it could save this song. seriously hoping it doesn't get caught since it's one of her best singles in a while
223’s by YNW Melly feat. 9lokknine - huge on streaming and basically nowhere else...but if Melly gets out of prison well, publicity is his best tool
Camelot by NLE Choppa - also huge on streaming but with a video to boot, honestly expect it to hang around the Top 20 for a bit if the momentum keeps up

Songs that could repeat:
Talk by Khalid - most likely hitting the 52 week rule but if it ends up like Love Lies or Believer, it could notch enough points to land in the bottom ten
I Don’t Care by Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - the song's run is towards it's end but Sheeran and Bieber tend to be radio darlings so it could possibly hit 52 weeks
No Guidance by Chris Brown feat. Drake - currently in the Top 5 but I can see its sales, stream and even radio drop fast
Ransom by Lil Tecca - it's in the Top 5 right now but unless your Lil Nas X, viral rap songs don't tend to have much longevity once all the hype fades, expect it out of the top 50 sooner than later

Pretty Much Guaranteed to Make Next Years list:
Take What You Want by Post Malone feat. Ozzy Osbourne and Travis Scott - the fan favorite off of Hollywood's Bleeding, expect it to be a huge hit once the radio push and music video come the new year
Memories by Maroon 5 - all ready a radio darling without any music video yet, and if they get *checks featured rapper list* DaBaby for the remix, they have the urban crossover. ugh.
Beautiful People by Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid - this could end up being the Eastside of 2020
Goodbyes by Post Malone feat. Young Thug - on it's way out of the top 10 but Post is basically the radio's favorite "rapper" at this point
Circles by Post Malone - in the Top 10 and will be in the Hot 100 for less than 15 by the time year-end list comes around. And radio is still strong
bad guy by Billie Eilish - will most likely last a whole 52 weeks
Truth Hurts by Lizzo - same as bad guy
Señorita by Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello - see the previous two songs
Someone You Loved by Lewis Capaldi - expect it to linger in the Top 5 for a few months or so, strap in folks. sigh
Panini by Lil Nas X - in the top 5 right now, expect it to get a healthy run
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM by Travis Scott - don't expect this to be a huge-monster hit and the song's not all that good but expect it to land a decent chart run off of goodwill from SICKO MODE alone
10,000 Hours by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber - a country pop crossover with two artists the radio absolutely loves??? If this does not end up in the at the very least in the Top 20 of the year-end list, I'll be shocked

Outliers: too early to tell but they could become hits
Graveyard/clementine - honestly not a lot of buzz around either of these songs right now...but Halsey's album is scheduled to drop January so I could see a rebound for either. Plus Graveyard is really catchy.
South of the Border - the video just dropped...but Camila Cabello hasn't had the best of track record when it's come to her recent singles and neither has Cardi B
INTRO - even though it's only new to the charts and it could hit the top 10, hype for KIRK is fading surprisingly fast so I don't think it's this song that's gonna stick around, almost similar to what's happened to J. Cole's albums

Beautiful People is ready to drop any second, I see no way it makes it next year. Clementine also isn’t going to radio (as it shouldn’t), so I see no possibility for that either.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 6, 2019 1:20:04 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Also, now that Lil Nas X is officially no longer a one hit wonder, I wonder if his next single will be from his 7 EP (C7osure or Rodeo) or whether he'll start building hype for a debut album.

Release "Rodeo", then prepare the debut album hype.

[Dadude#0839]

Oct 6, 2019 3:55:26 GMT -5 nick64 said:

Oct 5, 2019 7:14:45 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Predictions for Hot 100 2020

Songs That Could End Up Getting Caught: basically songs in trouble of getting their charts runs cut off by years, especially with Christmas season in coming
hot girl bummer by blackbear - ROOTING FOR THIS TRASH THING TO GET CAUGHT BETWEEN YEARS...even if the streaming is really good right now. ARGH!
Even Though I’m Leaving by Luke Combs - it could end up getting caught but Luke Combs seems to have better than average runs for his singles so only time will tell
Lover by Taylor Swift - very, very likely to get caught...although, if the radio increases, it could save this song. seriously hoping it doesn't get caught since it's one of her best singles in a while
223’s by YNW Melly feat. 9lokknine - huge on streaming and basically nowhere else...but if Melly gets out of prison well, publicity is his best tool
Camelot by NLE Choppa - also huge on streaming but with a video to boot, honestly expect it to hang around the Top 20 for a bit if the momentum keeps up

Songs that could repeat:
Talk by Khalid - most likely hitting the 52 week rule but if it ends up like Love Lies or Believer, it could notch enough points to land in the bottom ten
I Don’t Care by Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber - the song's run is towards it's end but Sheeran and Bieber tend to be radio darlings so it could possibly hit 52 weeks
No Guidance by Chris Brown feat. Drake - currently in the Top 5 but I can see its sales, stream and even radio drop fast
Ransom by Lil Tecca - it's in the Top 5 right now but unless your Lil Nas X, viral rap songs don't tend to have much longevity once all the hype fades, expect it out of the top 50 sooner than later

Pretty Much Guaranteed to Make Next Years list:
Take What You Want by Post Malone feat. Ozzy Osbourne and Travis Scott - the fan favorite off of Hollywood's Bleeding, expect it to be a huge hit once the radio push and music video come the new year
Memories by Maroon 5 - all ready a radio darling without any music video yet, and if they get *checks featured rapper list* DaBaby for the remix, they have the urban crossover. ugh.
Beautiful People by Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid - this could end up being the Eastside of 2020
Goodbyes by Post Malone feat. Young Thug - on it's way out of the top 10 but Post is basically the radio's favorite "rapper" at this point
Circles by Post Malone - in the Top 10 and will be in the Hot 100 for less than 15 by the time year-end list comes around. And radio is still strong
bad guy by Billie Eilish - will most likely last a whole 52 weeks
Truth Hurts by Lizzo - same as bad guy
Señorita by Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello - see the previous two songs
Someone You Loved by Lewis Capaldi - expect it to linger in the Top 5 for a few months or so, strap in folks. sigh
Panini by Lil Nas X - in the top 5 right now, expect it to get a healthy run
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM by Travis Scott - don't expect this to be a huge-monster hit and the song's not all that good but expect it to land a decent chart run off of goodwill from SICKO MODE alone
10,000 Hours by Dan + Shay and Justin Bieber - a country pop crossover with two artists the radio absolutely loves??? If this does not end up in the at the very least in the Top 20 of the year-end list, I'll be shocked

Outliers: too early to tell but they could become hits
Graveyard/clementine - honestly not a lot of buzz around either of these songs right now...but Halsey's album is scheduled to drop January so I could see a rebound for either. Plus Graveyard is really catchy.
South of the Border - the video just dropped...but Camila Cabello hasn't had the best of track record when it's come to her recent singles and neither has Cardi B
INTRO - even though it's only new to the charts and it could hit the top 10, hype for KIRK is fading surprisingly fast so I don't think it's this song that's gonna stick around, almost similar to what's happened to J. Cole's albums

Beautiful People is ready to drop any second, I see no way it makes it next year. Clementine also isn’t going to radio (as it shouldn’t), so I see no possibility for that either.

Beautiful people is doing good on radio, so I expect it to have a chance to make next year, but I predict a 25 week run for this, and Clementine will flop Nightmare style, not sure about Graveyard though

[Deleted]

Oct 5, 2019 16:27:09 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Oh Plaeeese dont let Robbery make it, there is nothing I want more than for Robbery to miss the YE list
Yeah its an obsession of mine im aware, probably not healthy but thats what that 'song' did to me

[n13l5]

Oct 6, 2019 1:11:09 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Oct 5, 2019 21:14:47 GMT -5 spoons said:

I want robbery to make it so that it can show up on multiple worst lists.

But also even if the song is total trash the chorus is undeniable

Also am morbidly hoping this happens, since with the exception of Someone You Loved and possibly One Thing Right, there haven't been any truly horrendous songs that had longevity on the charts for year-end lists.

Hot take, but I see that as a good thing and a nice change of pace with the last couple of years

[T. Eddy]

Month 10, September 2019

Here’s the better late than never forecast for September. I’m using the October 5th hot 100, which covered chart activity in late September. Starting now I’ll include the “Contenders for 2020” category, for songs that I see missing 2019, but possibly making 2020.


Guaranteed to make the YE:

Someone You Loved(#3 and growing in all metrics, practically already locked)
Panini(#6 and mostly stable, already got the bare minimum to get locked before the video, but now it is practically guaranteed)
Boyfriend(#19 and mostly stable. While it isn’t huge like other recent Ariana singles, Boyfriend has still been around long enough and high enough, and with enough time left, to be pretty much guaranteed)
My Type(#24 and stable in the top 30, and has been there long enough to be all but guaranteed)
Trampoline(#32, and projected to jump into the top 20 next week thanks to the Zayn remix, and thanks to said remix, a likely contender has become pretty much guaranteed)


Likely to make the YE:

Circles(#8, Has been in the top 10 for its entire run, and if it can stay there, Circles can sneak into the YE)
Hot Girl Summer(#20 and stable, and if it stays there, it could make the YE, but it’ll likely be close)
Baby(#21 and slowly rising. If it can spend the remainder of the year in the top 20, then it could make the YE)
How Do You Sleep?(#26 and slowly rising. If could make the YE if it doesn’t fall for the rest of the year, but the run will be close)
Only Human(#28 and rising. If the momentum doesn’t stop, this will secure a spot on the YE)
Cash S**t(#41, stable, and close to the cutoff, but we also have Hot Girl Summer as the current single, so that may hurt Cash S**t’s chances)


Might Make the YE:

Hot(#35 and stable in the top 40, but I don’t see this making it unless it rises)
One Thing Right(#47 and has been charting for awhile now, but also hasn’t taken off in any way. It could still possibly scrape into the YE by pulling a less extreme Worth It)


Unlikely to make the YE:

Camelot(#37 and honestly just a case of debuting too late to make a serious play, but if it has considerably better longevity than Shotta Flow, it could make a play for 2020)
223’s(#38 and in more or less the same situation as Camelot)
Lover(#44 and stable, but it’s too late to make a serious play for the YE at the rate it’s going)
Time(#49 and slowly growing, but so far just seems to be a repeat of Lie’s run last year)
Don’t Call Me Angel(Down hard to #52 this week, and at this point it’s too late to make the 2019 YE even if it rebounds)
Even Though I’m Leaving(Up to #58, but considering the trajectories of previous Luke Combs singles, as well as what time of year it is, this one seems primed to get caught between years)


Contenders for 2020:

On Chill(#29 and rising. It’s really a tossup on where this will go)
Good as Hell(#43 and rising. If Truth Hurts is anything to go by, this’ll peak sometime in the late fall-early winter, and if that peak is in the top 10, it could make a play for 2020)
Liar(#55. Remember Havana? I could definitely see a similar run happening for this song if it manages to catch on fully)


Too Early to Tell:

INTRO(Just debuted at #17. As such, I have no clue where the momentum will lead it, but if it’s going to be anywhere on a YE, that YE will be 2020)
Memories(Just debuted at #22, and we all know how Maroon 5 songs have a reputation for being unkillable radio terrors. That being said, this could also totally flop too, and second week numbers aren’t looking great)
Graveyard(Down to #60 in its second week, but who knows, it might actually stick around on the radio, considering that it’s more radio friendly than Nightmare, and pop stations are finally getting sick of Without Me)
Hot Girl Bummer(Up to #71 in its second week and showing signs of rising, but we’ll just have to see if this surge in streaming is a fluke, or the first signs of a surprise hit)

Dropouts:

All to Myself(Left this week, will probably make the YE)
Press(Left this week, will miss the YE)
Hey Look Ma, I Made It(Left the week of September 28th, will make the YE)
Go Loko(Left the week of September 28th, borderline)
Easier(Left the week of September 28th, will likely miss)
Shotta Flow(Left the week of September 21st, will probably make the YE)
Never Really Over(Left the week of September 14th, will miss the YE)
EARFQUAKE(Left the week of September 14th, will miss the YE)
Clout(Left the week of September 7th, will make the YE)

I’ve been busy lately, so I’ve done the best that I can to rush this out with what time I have, but I’ll fix any major issues when I get the chance through the week.

[GPMB]

On Chill just rose to #23, it is definitely making a late entry into the YE