Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[nathanalbright]

Oct 7, 2019 20:26:21 GMT -5 GPMB said:

On Chill just rose to #23, it is definitely making a late entry into the YE

I'm glad to see Wale with a chance at a YE hit.  When was the last time this happened?

[GPMB]

Oct 7, 2019 22:30:08 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Oct 7, 2019 20:26:21 GMT -5 GPMB said:

On Chill just rose to #23, it is definitely making a late entry into the YE

I'm glad to see Wale with a chance at a YE hit.  When was the last time this happened?

Bad with Tiara Thomas made the YE in 2013, and I don't think he's released even a mildly successful song since, until On Chill

[inverse]

WEEK 46 HYPE

This is a bit early but we have the full h100. 

1	Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus	Old Town Road	1509650
2	Post Malone & Swae Lee	Sunflower	1146200
3	Halsey	Without Me	1089650
4	Post Malone	Wow	843280
5	Marshmello & Bastille	Happier	824400
6	Billie Eilish	Bad Guy	808750
7	Ariana Grande	7 Rings	793820
8	Travis Scott	Sicko Mode	744700
9	Panic! At The Disco	High Hopes	734750
10	Khalid	Talk	726300
11	Jonas Brothers	Sucker	704300
12	Ariana Grande	thank u, next	663250
13	Sam Smith & Normani	Dancing With A Stranger	638330
14	Benny Blanco f/ Halsey, Khalid	Eastside	590400
15	Meek Mill f/ Drake	Going Bad	577760
16	Lizzo	Truth Hurts	569500
17	Lady Gaga f/ Bradley Cooper	Shallow	568200
18	Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber	I Don't Care	542400
19	Khalid	Better	536600
20	Ava Max	Sweet But Psycho	511800
21	Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello	Senorita	496600
22	Maroon 5 f/ Cardi B	Girls Like You	490500
23	J. Cole	Middle Child	489200
24	DaBaby	Suge	451250
25	Lil Baby & Gunna	Drip Too Hard	448130
26	Chris Brown f/ Drake	No Guidance	411670
27	Shawn Mendes	If I Can't Have You	396380
28	Cardi B f/ Bruno Mars	Please Me	360350
29	Ariana Grande	break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored	360220
30	Dan + Shay	Speechless	357500
31	Lil Tecca	Ran$om	348850
32	Post Malone	Better Now	346450
33	5 Seconds Of Summer	Youngblood	341950
34	Kodak Black f/ Travis Scott, Offset	ZEZE	340520
35	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie	Look Back At It	338450
36	Taylor Swift f/ Brendon Urie	ME!	335700
37	Lewis Capaldi	Someone You Loved	335600
38	Polo G f/ Lil Tjay	Pop Out	334100
39	Cardi B	Money	331850
40	21 Savage	A Lot	328150
41	Luke Combs	Beautiful Crazy	318800
42	Post Malone f/ Young Thug	Goodbyes	308650
43	Blueface	Thotiana	306400
44	Morgan Wallen	Whiskey Glasses	306100
45	Bad Bunny f/ Drake	MIA	302400
46	Blake Shelton	God's Country	300400
47	Drake f/ Rick Ross	Money In The Grave	299350
48	Taylor Swift	You Need To Calm Down	298300
49	Mustard f/ Migos	Pure Water	292430
50	Dean Lewis	Be Alright	284500
51	Calboy	Envy Me	280100
52	Ellie Goulding X Diplo f/ Swae Lee	Close To Me	274600
53	Panic! At The Disco	Hey Look Ma, I Made It	274300
54	Juice WRLD	Lucid Dreams	268580
55	Luke Combs	Beer Never Broke My Heart	266550
56	Lauren Daigle	You Say	264400
57	Daddy Yankee f/ Snow	Con Calma	263850
58	Gucci Mane f/ Bruno Mars, Kodak Black	Wake Up In The Sky	263270
59	Sheck Wes	Mo Bamba	263000
60	YNW Melly	Murder On My Mind	254350
61	Young Thug, J. Cole, Travis Scott	The London	253950
62	Blanco Brown	The Git Up	252730
63	DJ Snake f/ Ozuna, Cardi B, Selena Gomez	Taki Taki	248350
64	City Girls	Act Up	246500
65	Billie Eilish	When The Party's Over	246030
66	Lil Nas X	Panini	238680
67	Billie Eilish	Bury A Friend	226400
68	YK Osiris	Worth It	221300
69	Luke Bryan	Knockin' Boots	217350
70	Lil Baby	Close Friends	215000
71	Cardi B f/ Bad Bunny, J Balvin	I Like It	212750
72	Pinkfong	Baby Shark	211950
73	Ed Sheeran f/ Khalid	Beautiful People	210550
74	Flipp Dinero	Leave Me Alone	209830
75	Lee Brice	Rumor	200900
76	Ariana Grande	Breathin	196100
77	Thomas Rhett	Look What God Gave Her	193030
78	A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie f/ Kodak Black	Swervin	191400
79	Offset f/ Cardi B	Clout	190450
80	Kane Brown	Good As You	189550
81	Florida Georgia Line	Talk You Out Of It	187150
82	NLE Choppa	Shotta Flow	181800
83	Dan + Shay	All To Myself	174150
84	Chase Rice	Eyes On You	173000
85	P!nk	Walk Me Home	172950
86	Maren Morris	Girl	171280
87	Juice WRLD	Robbery	168900
88	SHAED	Trampoline	168700
89	Saweetie	My Type	164640
90	Ella Mai	Trip	164120
91	YG, Tyga & Jon Z	Go Loko	162100
92	Kelsea Ballerini	Miss Me More	160070
93	Dan + Shay	Tequila	159850
94	Summer Walker f/ Drake	Girls Need Love	156320
95	Brett Young	Here Tonight	156280
96	Scotty McCreery	This Is It	153950
97	Katy Perry	Never Really Over	153520
98	Yo Gotti f/ Lil Baby	Put A Date On It	152450
99	Marshmello f/ CHVRCHES	Here With Me	151970
100	Tyler The Creator	Earthquake	151800

If the points from this week are repeated then next week we'll have new entries from Cash sh!t, Only Human, Circles, and Boyfriend. But Boyfriend took a collapse this week and it might pull a hasty exit but as long as it lasts like 3 more weeks it'll make the year end list.

One Thing Right is totally gonna make the year end list unfortunately, it'll probably pass Shotta Flow.

Speechless is likely locked into the top song that makes the year end list peaking below 10. It'll probably finish at 34 or 35.

[Deleted]

Here is my updated tracking for this week on current charting songs that might potentially make the 2019 year end list in the future:

Songs That Will Be Locked In The Future That I'm Not Tracking:
-My Type
-Boyfriend

The total number of songs that are locked or will be locked in the future are 79. Here are the other songs still charting that I tracked:

?) Knockin' Boots 2263
79) Rumor 2012
- - - - - LOCKED (2000 Points) - - - - -
80) Clout 1991
81) Good As You 1968
82) Look What God Gave Her 1965
83) Trip 1952
84) Shotta Flow 1877
85) Tequila 1866
86) All To Myself 1842
87) This Is It 1809
88) Eyes On You 1803
89) Love Lies 1803

90) Talk You Out Of It 1772

91) Trampoline 1741 (+164)

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

92) Walk Me Home 1733
93) Beautiful 1718
94) Go Loko 1710
95) GIRL 1709
- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - -
96) Cash Shit 1584 (+120)
97) Only Human 1500 (+150)
98) Callaita 1482 (+79)
99) Baby 1467 (+142)
100) One Thing Right 1465 (+125)
101) Otro Trago 1454 (+84)
102) How Do You Sleep? 1431 (+146)
103) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1355 (+70)
104) Circles 1285 (+259)
105) Hot Girl Summer 1229 (+144)
106) I Don't Know About You 1178 (+115)
107) China 1168 (+93)
108) Lalala 1152 (+90)
109) Lover 984 (+118)
110) Time 979 (+109)
111) On Chill 910 (+148)
112) Hot 888 (+126)
113) Ballin’ 876 (+110)
114) Good As Hell 715 (+136)

Dropouts:

Rearview Town 1565 (Will miss the 2019 year end list.)

PS: The list below is every song I stopped tracking due to having pretty much no chance of making the 2019 year end list:

1) Motivation
2) Take What You Want
3) 223's
4) INTRO
5) Memories

Here is the projected cutoff if the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

83) Shotta Flow 1877
84) All To Myself 1842
85) This Is It 1809
86) Eyes On You 1803
87) Trip 1788
88) Talk You Out Of It 1772

89) Tequila 1742

90) Trampoline 1741 (+164)

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
91) Walk Me Home 1733
92) Go Loko 1710
93) GIRL 1709

Love Lies is at 1653 points and Beautiful is at 1590 points. Both will definitely not make the list in this scenario.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here are the projected calculated points for every song I tracked if they stayed in their same positions for the rest of the charting year:

?) Circles 2839
?) Trampoline 2725
?) Only Human 2400
?) Baby 2319
?) How Do You Sleep? 2307
?) Cash Shit 2304
?) One Thing Right 2215
?) Hot Girl Summer 2093
87) Rumor 2012
88) Clout 1991
89) Good As You 1968
90) Look What God Gave Her 1965
91) Trip 1952
92) Shotta Flow 1877
93) I Don’t Know About You 1868
94) Tequila 1866
95) All To Myself 1842
96) This Is It 1809
97) Eyes On You 1803
98) Love Lies 1803
99) On Chill 1798

100) Talk You Out Of It 1772

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Walk Me Home 1733
102) China 1726
103) Callaita 1719
104) Beautiful 1718
105) Go Loko 1710
106) GIRL 1709
107) Otro Trago 1706
?) Lover 1692
?) Lalala 1692
?) Hot 1644
?) The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home 1635
?) Time 1633
?) Ballin’ 1536
?) Good As Hell 1531

Here's the same thing but the week of November 24th, 2018 is not counted towards the 2019 year end list:

91) Shotta Flow 1877

92) I Don’t Know About You 1868

93) All To Myself 1842
94) This Is It 1809

95) Eyes On You 1803

96) On Chill 1798

97) Trip 1788
98) Talk You Out Of It 1772
99) Tequila 1742

100) Walk Me Home 1733

- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -

101) China 1726
102) Callaita 1719
103) Go Loko 1710
104) GIRL 1709
105) Otro Trago 1706

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Here's also my opinion on each song's chances of making the 2019 year end list (only the ones that I tracked and are still charting):

Certain:
Circles
Trampoline
Only Human
Baby
How Do You Sleep?
Cash s**t

Pretty Likely:
One Thing Right
Hot Girl Summer

Slightly Likely:
On Chill

Toss Up:
Lover

Slightly Unlikely:
China
Hot
Time

Pretty Unlikely:
I Don't Know About You
Callaita
Otro Trago
Lalala
Ballin'
Good As Hell

No Chance:
The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home

[Deleted]

Boyfriend dropped pretty hard this week and it is losing fast on radio. Worst case scenario for the song would be to drop out within a month like Never Really Over did after it started falling. If it does so, it could just barely miss the year end list. I still expect the song to make it but if it starts dropping even more then I'll start tracking it since its lock for the 2019 year end list won't be guaranteed anymore.

[Deleted]

I hope Robbery makes it because Juice was also snubbed out of a #100 spot last year with AGATS 😢

[n13l5]

Oct 8, 2019 6:07:20 GMT -5 @killamonjaro said:

I hope Robbery makes it because Juice was also snubbed out of a #100 spot last year with AGATS 😢

the less Juice the better, Lucid dreams was already way too big imo

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Kinda sad Lalala isn't gonna make the year-end list. Something so fascinatingly bad such as that, to make the year-end list would've been fascinating to look back at a few years from now.

[lights]

[inverse]

Oct 8, 2019 6:07:20 GMT -5 @killamonjaro said:

I hope Robbery makes it because Juice was also snubbed out of a #100 spot last year with AGATS 😢

I mean you can hardly say it's a bad thing that a song called "All Girls Are The Same" didn't make the year end list. Robbery is a song I still don't personally like but it's not just an absolute disgrace so if that made it it'd certainly be better than the other way around

[Naos]

Oct 8, 2019 11:25:25 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Kinda sad Lalala isn't gonna make the year-end list. Something so fascinatingly bad such as that, to make the year-end list would've been fascinating to look back at a few years from now.

As someone who likes "Lalala", I'm offended.

[rimetm]

October 12, 2019 - 47/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

NOTE: I was calculating several songs below the top 20 and I realized that I was way overestimating the outside range on the album bomb weeks. I've corrected the past month on the backend so a couple of songs with complete runs do have slightly different points and ranks.

[spicymapping]

Seasons change, and the charts went cold



TL, DR:
Locked: My Type
Added: Circles, Hot Girl Summer

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Without Me (=)
3. Old Town Road (=)
4. Wow. (=)
5. 7 Rings (=)
6. Happier (=)
7. bad guy (=)
8. SICKO MODE (=)
9. Sucker (=)
10. thank u, next (=)
11. High Hopes (=)
12. Talk (=)
13. Truth Hurts (+1)
14. Dancing With a Stranger (-1)
15. Eastside (=)
16. Shallow (=)
17. I Don't Care (+1)
18. Going Bad (-1)
19. Señorita (+2)
20. Better (-1)
21. Girls Like You (-1)
22. Sweet But Psycho (=)
23. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
24. Drip Too Hard (=)
25. Suge (=)
26. No Guidance (+1)
27. If I Can’t Have You (-1)
28. Please Me (=)
29. ZEZE (=)
30. Better Now (=)
31. Ran$om (+4)
32. Youngblood (-1)
33. Speechless (-1)
34. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
35. Money (-1)
36. Someone You Loved (+6)
37. Pop Out (-1)
38. a lot (-1)
39. MIA (-1)
40. Goodbyes (+8)
41. Look Back At It (-2)
42. You Need To Calm Down (+5)
43. ME! (-3)
44. Money In The Grave (+6)
45. Thotiana (-4)
46. Beautiful Crazy (-3)
47. God's Country (-3)
48. Lucid Dreams (-3)
49. Whiskey Glasses (-3)
50. Mo Bamba (-1)
51. Wake Up In The Sky (=)
52. Be Alright (=)
53. Pure Water (=)
54. Close To Me (=)
55. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (=)
56. Taki Taki (=)
57. Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
58. You Say (=)
59. Envy Me (=)
60. The London (+1)
61. Con Calma (-1)
62. The Git Up (+1)
63. when the party’s over (-1)
64. Panini (+5)
65. Murder on My Mind (-1)
66. Act Up (-1)
67. I Like It (-1)
68. Leave Me Alone (-1)
69. Breathin (-1)
70. Beautiful People (+3)
71. Close Friends (-1)
72. bury a friend (-1)
73. Baby Shark (-1)
74. Knockin' Boots (=)
75. Worth It (=)
76. Trip (=)
77. Swervin (=)
78. Rumor (=)
79. Tequila (=)
80. Look What God Gave Her (=)
81. Clout (=)
82. Good as You (=)
83. Love Lies (=)
84. Shotta Flow (=)
85. Talk You Out Of It (=)
86. My Type (+5)
87. All To Myself (-1)

Projected Cutoff - 1450

88. Eyes on You (-1)
89. Trampoline (+13) - WA: 1
90. Robbery (-2)
91. Beautiful (-2)
92. Never Really Over (-2)
93. GIRL (-1)
94. Walk Me Home (-1)
95. Go Loko (-1)
96. Here Tonight (-1)
97. All I Want For Christmas is You (-1)
98. Boyfriend (+10) - WA: 2
99. This Is It (-2)
100. EARFQUAKE (-2)

104. Baby (+12) - WA: 2
107. Only Human (+13) - WA: 2
111. Cash s**t (+4) - WA: 3
113. How Do You Sleep? (+17) - WA: 2
118. Circles (NEW) - WA: 2
120. Otro Trago (+5) - WA: 5, WL: 3
122. Callaita (+5) - WA: 6, WL: 3
124. Hot Girl Summer (NEW) - WA: 3
125. One Thing Right (+9) - WA: 4
134. The Ones That Didn't Make It Back Home (+1) - WA: E

In case you’re wondering “E” in weeks left means it can’t make the year-end if it holds. You’ll be seeing it a lot more.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Oct 8, 2019 12:27:40 GMT -5 Naos said:

Oct 8, 2019 11:25:25 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Kinda sad Lalala isn't gonna make the year-end list. Something so fascinatingly bad such as that, to make the year-end list would've been fascinating to look back at a few years from now.

As someone who likes "Lalala", I'm offended.

I mean, I kind like it too but more in a "so bad, it's good" way

[Naos]

Oct 8, 2019 20:31:15 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Oct 8, 2019 12:27:40 GMT -5 Naos said:

As someone who likes "Lalala", I'm offended.

I mean, I kind like it too but more in a "so bad, it's good" way

I genuinely, unironically like it, and not in the way you describe.

[GPMB]

Songs that will pass This Is It (the current cutoff when you go proportionally):
My Type
Trampoline
Cash Shit
Baby
Only Human
One Thing Right
How Do You Sleep?
Circles

Maybe:
Boyfriend (starting to lose hope for this)
Hot Girl Summer
Lover
On Chill
Good as Hell
Highest in the Room
10,000 Hours

Unlikely:
I Don’t Know About You
Time
Hot
Memories

Guaranteed not to:
Callaita
Otro Trago
China
Lalala

[reputainbow]

i figured that i might as well do the whole "holds position" idea with my formula since i was curious on how it would look, and this is what i have.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 100}1 Sunflower (Post Malone/Swae Lee) 6715
2 Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 6693
3 Without Me (Halsey) 6378
4 Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 5290
5 Wow. (Post Malone) 5102
6 Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 5049
7 7 rings (Ariana Grande) 4540
8 Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 4536
9 Talk (Khalid) 4450
10 Happier (Marshmello/Bastille) 4400
11 Sicko Mode (Travis Scott) 3959
12 Senorita (Shawn Mendes/Camila Cabello) 3920
13 Dancing With a Stranger (Sam Smith/Normani) 3813
14 High Hopes (Panic! at the Disco) 3788
15 thank u, next (Ariana Grande) 3589
16 I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 3468
17 No Guidance (Chris Brown/Drake) 3139
18 Shallow (Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper) 3033
19 Ran$om (Lil Tecca) 2934
20 Going Bad (Meek Mill/Drake) 2910
21 Someone You Loved (Lewis Capaldi) 2850
22 Eastside (Benny Blanco/Halsey/Khalid) 2847
23 Suge (DaBaby) 2846
24 Better (Khalid) 2810
25 Sweet But Psycho (Ava Max) 2612
26 MIDDLE CHILD (J. Cole) 2513
27 Girls Like You (Maroon 5/Cardi B) 2472
28 If I Can't Have You (Shawn Mendes) 2403
29 Goodbyes (Post Malone/Young Thug) 2349
30 Drip Too Hard (Lil Baby/Yung Gunna) 2310
31 Panini (Lil Nas X) 2121
32 Money In the Grave (Drake/Rick Ross) 2052
33 You Need to Calm Down (Taylor Swift) 2027
34 Speechless (Dan + Shay) 1962
35 Please Me (Cardi B/Bruno Mars) 1911
36 Look Back At It (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie) 1819
37 ZEZE (Kodak Black/Travis Scott/Offset) 1798
38 Better Now (Post Malone) 1782
39 Youngblood (5 Seconds of Summer) 1764
40 The London (Young Thug/J. Cole/Travis Scott) 1742
41 break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored (Ariana Grande) 1731
42 Beautiful People (Ed Sheeran/Khalid) 1725
43 The Git Up (Blanco Brown) 1710
44 A Lot (21 Savage) 1704
45 Money (Cardi B) 1697
46 Pop Out (Polo G/Lil Tjay) 1687
47 Beautiful Crazy (Luke Combs) 1668
48 MIA (Bad Bunny/Drake) 1623
49 God's Country (Blake Shelton) 1620
50 Whiskey Glasses (Morgan Wallen) 1604
51 Circles (Post Malone) 1560
52 Pure Water (Mustard/Migos) 1559
53 Be Alright (Dean Lewis) 1528
54 Thotiana (Blueface) 1522
55 Envy Me (Calboy) 1498
56 ME! (Taylor Swift/Brendon Urie) 1497
57 You Say (Lauren Daigle) 1477
58 Close to Me (Ellie Goulding/Diplo/Swae Lee) 1458
59 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 1452
60 Beer Never Broke My Heart (Luke Combs) 1445
61 Hey Look Ma, I Made It (Panic! At the Disco) 1396
62 My Type (Saweetie) 1367
63 Mo Bamba (Sheck Wes) 1363
64 Taki Taki (DJ Snake/Selena Gomez/Ozuna/Cardi B) 1350
65 Trampoline (SHAED) 1339
66 Wake Up In the Sky (Gucci Mane/Bruno Mars/Kodak Black) 1337
67 Con Calma (Daddy Yankee/Katy Perry/Snow) 1335
68 Act Up (City Girls) 1320
69 Baby (Lil Baby/DaBaby) 1294
70 How Do You Sleep? (Sam Smith) 1285
71 I Like It (Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin) 1211
72 Boyfriend (Ariana Grande/Social House) 1204
73 Baby Shark (Pinkfong) 1189
74 Only Human (Jonas Brothers) 1182
75 Bury a Friend (Billie Eilish) 1176
76 Murder On My Mind (YNW Melly) 1168
77 When the Party's Over (Billie Eilish) 1163
78 Hot Girl Summer (Megan Thee Stallion/Nicki Minaj/Ty Dolla $ign) 1160
79 Leave Me Alone (Flipp Dinero) 1157
80 Cash Shit (Megan Thee Stallion/DaBaby) 1131
81 One Thing Right (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 1097
82 Swervin (A Boogie Wit da Hoodie/6ix9ine) 1060
83 Knockin' Boots (Luke Bryan) 1055
84 Worth It (YK Osiris) 1043
85 Breathin (Ariana Grande) 988
86 On Chill (Wale/Jeremih) 976
87 Clout (Offset/Cardi B) 944
88 Close Friends (Lil Baby) 939
89 Rumor (Lee Brice) 931
90 Look What God Gave Her (Thomas Rhett) 911
91 Tequila (Dan + Shay) 898
92 Hot (Young Thug/Gunna) 898
93 Good as You (Kane Brown) 893
94 Trip (Ella Mai) 887
95 Lover (Taylor Swift) 869
96 I Don't Know About You (Chris Lane) 840
97 Love Lies (Khalid/Normani) 838
98 Good as Hell (Lizzo) 836
99 Shotta Flow (NLE Choppa) 815
100 Never Really Over (Katy Perry) 815

and wow, the cutoff this year is quite low compared to when i have done this in the past.

[Deleted]

The Billboard 2019 year end list if the chart stays the same for the rest of the year (based off of fhas/rimetm's predictions list).

PS: I have put the songs that are still charting in bold and thus their final score can be different if their positions change.

1) Old Town Road 1712500
2) Sunflower 1320130
3) Without Me 1145050
4) Bad Guy 974990
5) Wow. 955610
6) Talk 888360
7) Happier 866460
8) 7 Rings 848270
9) Sucker 836440
10) Truth Hurts 818830
11) Sicko Mode 794310
12) High Hopes 779140
13) Dancing With A Stranger 729590
14) Senorita 708250
15) I Don't Care 707730
16) Thank U, Next 698820
17) Eastside 620490
18) Going Bad 610540
19) Shallow 597800
20) No Guidance 582100
21) Better 568740

22) Sweet But Psycho 542980

23) Suge 542040

24) Ran$om 535890
25) Someone You Loved 519220
26) Girls Like You 517300
27) Middle Child 508720
28) Drip Too Hard 473500
29) If I Can't Have You 473430
30) Goodbyes 449530
31) Money In The Grave 394410
32) Panini 384030
33) You Need To Calm Down 378040
34) Break Up With Your Girlfriend, I'm Bored 376720
35) Please Me 373910
36) Speechless 370530
37) Better Now 366820
38) Zeze 366070
39) Look Back At It 365510
40) Youngblood 364480
41) Money 357560
42) A Lot 352790
43) Me! 347250
44) Beautiful Crazy 340990
45) Pop Out 330800
46) Thotiana 327980
47) MIA 323770
48) Beautiful People 320160
49) The Git Up 316420
50) Whiskey Glasses 315440
51) Be Alright 313260
52) The London 310210
53) God's Country 307620
54) Pure Water 306000
55) Envy Me 305190
56) Close To Me 298440
57) You Say 293800
58) Lucid Dreams 290920
59) Wake Up In The Sky 285010
60) Mo Bamba 280420
61) Hey Look Ma, I Made It 279140
62) Con Calma 276050
63) Circles 272870
64) Taki Taki 270450
65) Beer Never Broke My Heart 265650
66) Murder On My Mind 263880
67) When The Party's Over 263330
68) Act Up 255740
69) Trampoline 243320
70) Bury A Friend 240670
71) I Like It 238540
72) My Type 235110
73) Baby Shark 233990
74) Worth It 228740
75) Close Friends 226840
76) Leave Me Alone 226390
77) Knockin' Boots 218170
78) Swervin 217700
79) Only Human 216450
80) Breathin 212980
81) Baby 211960
82) How Do You Sleep? 210450
83) Cash s**t 208170
84) Boyfriend 203180
85) Clout 199930
86) One Thing Right 199890
87) Rumor 199690
88) Look What God Gave Her 195810
89) Good As You 193580
90) Hot Girl Summer 191030
91) Shotta Flow 184750
92) Eyes On You 178400
93) All To Myself 177750
94) Trip 177180
95) Tequila 173490
96) Talk You Out Of It 173350
97) This Is It 170870
98) Walk Me Home 170610
99) Go Loko 168310
100) Robbery 167880
- - - - - CUTOFF - - - - -
101) GIRL 166000
102) I Don't Know About You 165230
103) Love Lies 163620
104) Here Tonight 162220
105) Girl Like You 161290
106) Callaita 159750
107) Never Really Over 158780
108) Miss Me More 158780
109) Otro Trago 158160
110) On Chill 157930
111) Here With Me 156880
112) Beautiful 155570
113) Put A Date On It 154910
114) Earfquake 153770
115) Girls Need Love 153540
116) Lover 153470
117) China 153080
118) Rearview Town 150640
119) Lalala 148360
120) Mixed Personalities 147170
121) Cool 145700
122) Backin' It Up 145570
123) Time 144450
124) Who Do You Love 144050
125) Hot 143470
126) Press 143160
127) Uproar 138020
128) All I Want For Christmas Is You 137900
129) Natural 131460
130) Good As Hell 130790
131) This Feeling 129140
132) Take What You Want 127500
133) Cross Me 111560

Analysis:

Circles, Trampoline, My Type, Only Human, Baby, How Do You Sleep? and Cash s**t are pretty much a lock for the 2019 year end list. One Thing Right & Hot Girl Summer should have no problem making the list unless they suddenly start dropping, which I honestly don't see happening.

On Chill's chances of making the year end list have been greatly hurt due to rimetm's recalculation of its first few weeks on the charts. It now needs to rise into the top 15 in order to have a fighting chance of scraping by the bottom. I personally think it can make it but if it doesn't it will probably make 2020's year end list anyways.

Lover's chances are even worse now as it has to rise into the top 25 quickly to get a spot on the list. In my opinion its radio gains are way too slow for it to do that, so this is now a likely candidate to be caught between years.

Boyfriend is starting to drop hard on the charts and on the radio. If this goes the same fate as Never Really Over and gets kicked out the charts within a month, it could just miss the year end list, probably with around 165000 points.

Songs like Lalala, Time, Hot & Good As Hell are now completely screwed due to the recalculation of the lower charting songs. I expect the first 3 to be caught between years while Good As Hell makes the 2020 year end list.

I Don't Know About You and Take What You Want practically have no chance since the former is slipping on radio and the latter continues to fall on the charts due to not being pushed as an official single.

The 3 latin songs, Callaita, Otro Trago & China are slowly falling with each week so none of them will get even close to making it.

Robbery is now the projected cutoff, although it could go as low as GIRL if Boyfriend pulls a Never Really Over. If Boyfriend, On Chill and Lover all make it, Walk Me Home will be the cutoff.

Assuming in the very unlikely case that Highest In The Room and 10000 Hours somehow scrape by, which I doubt either will since they literally have to stay in the top 5 for the final 6 weeks, Talk You Out Of It will be the cutoff, assuming Boyfriend, On Chill and Lover make it as well.

Overall, in my opinion, everything up to All To Myself is locked for the 2019 year end list. Anything between Trip & Walk Me Home should be pretty safe and the only way they would miss is if there was an error in calculating their points. Go Loko, Robbery & GIRL are not safe but they do have a chance depending on how many late entries make the list and how big the margin of error is.

[samo🦕]

[yosh9x]

Oct 7, 2019 23:19:11 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Oct 7, 2019 22:30:08 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I'm glad to see Wale with a chance at a YE hit.  When was the last time this happened?

Bad with Tiara Thomas made the YE in 2013, and I don't think he's released even a mildly successful song since, until On Chill

My pyt peaked at 54 and had 15 weeks in 2016

[GPMB]

Oct 9, 2019 15:03:02 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Oct 7, 2019 23:19:11 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Bad with Tiara Thomas made the YE in 2013, and I don't think he's released even a mildly successful song since, until On Chill

My pyt peaked at 54 and had 15 weeks in 2016

oh my god i completely forgot that thing existed

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Oct 9, 2019 15:03:02 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Oct 7, 2019 23:19:11 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Bad with Tiara Thomas made the YE in 2013, and I don't think he's released even a mildly successful song since, until On Chill

My pyt peaked at 54 and had 15 weeks in 2016

I only remember "My PYT" because it was one of the theme songs for WWE SummerSlam 3 years ago lol but hey it's happy and surprising to see Wale and Jeremih get a hit in 2019 (its impressive for Wale since its last hit was from 2013 with "Bad". Jeremih on the other hand, was 3 years ago with "Oui".)

[eidde]

I know On Chill is a very likely contender for 2020, but I really hope it makes 2019 because it would be hilarious if this song with two artists who haven't had a year-end hit in years sneaks its way on the list in the last couple weeks of the year.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

The Number One Year-End Singles of the Decade Ranked (Best to Worst):

2012: Somebody That I Used to Know
2019: Old Town Road
2015: Uptown Funk
2011: Rolling in the Deep
2013: Thrift Shop
2017: Shape of You
2010: Tik Tok
2014: Happy
2018: God's Plan
2016: Love Yourself

[Deleted]

Oct 9, 2019 18:11:45 GMT -5 eidde said:

I know On Chill is a very likely contender for 2020, but I really hope it makes 2019 because it would be hilarious if this song with two artists who haven't had a year-end hit in years sneaks its way on the list in the last couple weeks of the year.

We already have had some artists this year do that. People forget that PATDs last hit before this year was in 2006.

[Deleted]

With Boyfriend projected to drop to around 52 next week (according to Simon Falk), and its continued massive losses on radio, I'm not too sure if it can make the 2019 year end list anymore. Either way, I'm going to have to track the song now since it's not guaranteed to get a spot on the list.

Projected Scenario Where It Goes 52-68-84-100 On The Charts:

137300 (Current Score According To Rimetm) + 9500 + 7500 + 6000 + 5000 = 165300 Points

Not saying this is what will happen, but if it drops at its current rate and only lasts for 4 more weeks on the charts before being kicked out, it would barely miss out of the 2019 year end list at around 165000 points (160000 points if it takes the same route as Never Really Over and only lasts 3 more weeks). It will need at least 5 more weeks on the charts to break 170000 points, which is the projected cutoff on Rimetm's list.

At this point I'm pretty sure the toss up songs that can make a late entry into the year end list are On Chill, Boyfriend, Highest In The Room & Lover. I have posted the cutoffs below (according to rimetm's list) to show all possible scenarios of the 4 toss up songs making the list.

0 Songs: GIRL

1 Songs: Robbery

2 Songs: Go Loko

3 Songs: Walk Me Home

4 Songs: This Is It

So yeah, not accounting for prediction error, This Is It is the highest song that is the cutoff assuming all 4 toss up songs listed above make it.

[nathanalbright]

What a collapse we've seen at the bottom edge of the charts!

[spicymapping]

I'd say boyfriend is pretty safe - by my formula, it having those 4 weeks puts it between Tequila and LWGGH, and even without those last two weeks it would manage to edge out All To Myself.

[mikerivera]

Oct 9, 2019 18:11:45 GMT -5 eidde said:

I know On Chill is a very likely contender for 2020, but I really hope it makes 2019 because it would be hilarious if this song with two artists who haven't had a year-end hit in years sneaks its way on the list in the last couple weeks of the year.

This has nothing to do with what you said, but I love the profile pic!

[rockgolf]

I think we're close enough to the year-end, and the upper-end of the chart has been stable enough, that I am going post my predictions/projections for what will be the FINAL Top 100 songs of the year.

I'll still post weekly updates, but here's what I see making it.