Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[spicymapping]

Nov 7, 2019 13:40:47 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nov 7, 2019 6:49:35 GMT -5 jarhys said:

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

Rihanna's streak was 14 years and is the record for the longest. I think the top 5 longest ever are

Lil Wayne - 13 (2005-2017)

In my feelings counts in our hearts

[sirskimask]

Drake is probably gonna break the record. He usually releases at least 1 project a year that produces a strong enough single, and even if he's not putting out new material he still hops on a million different features, most of which end up turning into hits too.

[moonlite]

Drake’s streak will go on literally forever

[HeyHeyHey]

I’m a little surprised Taylor has made the YE list every year for so long. Obviously she’s massively successful and has numerous hits but due to her breaks in between albums I thought there may have been a year in there in which she didn’t have any. Hopefully she can extend it to 2020!

[nathanalbright]

Nov 7, 2019 15:25:12 GMT -5 HeyHeyHey said:

I’m a little surprised Taylor has made the YE list every year for so long. Obviously she’s massively successful and has numerous hits but due to her breaks in between albums I thought there may have been a year in there in which she didn’t have any. Hopefully she can extend it to 2020!

She'll likely need another slow-burning hit like "Delicate" to do it in 2020, since "Lover" doesn't appear like it will have the legs to do it for her.

[rimetm]

NOTE: I'm not confident in One Man Band and On Chill's numbers, and they were irreconcilably throwing off bullet data further down, so those aren't the numbers factored into the year-end chart. (I publish this part elsewhere before I finalize the running YE)

November 9, 2019 - 51/53 weeks

SPOILER: Click to show

{Without 11/24}

Also, I'll show all potential variants once we reach the November 23 and November 30 charts once applicable.

[Deleted]

Did some calculations for some charting songs under the cutoff. Used rimetm's numbers as well as assuming things will stay the same.

With November 23rd, 2019:

Good As Hell 180630
Hot Girl Summer 177880
On Chill 159030
Lover 154380
Ballin' 152250
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 146020
Hot 146030
Time 144840
Memories 139990
10,000 Hours 130860

With November 30th, 2019:

Good As Hell 204840
Hot Girl Summer 187720
On Chill 171490
HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 164700
Ballin' 164610
Lover 163960
Memories 160060
Hot 157720

Time 154350

10,000 Hours 150620

Here's the bottom 10 of the 2019 year end list under all five possible scenarios. I also included 101-105 to show songs that just missed.

November 24th, 2018 To November 16th, 2019 (52 Week Year):

91) Cash Shit 183210

92) Love Lies 180600

93) Eyes On You 178400

94) All To Myself 177750

95) Talk You Out Of It 173350

96) This Is It 170870

97) Walk Me Home 170610

98) Beautiful 168810

99) Go Loko 168310

100) Hot Girl Summer 168040

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
101) Robbery 167880

102) GIRL 166000

103) Here Tonight 162220
104) Girl Like You 161290

105) Never Really Over 158780

November 24th, 2018 To November 23th, 2019 (53 Week Year):

91) Cash Shit 183210

92) Good As Hell 180630

93) Love Lies 180600

94) Eyes On You 178400

95) Hot Girl Summer 177880

96) All To Myself 177750
97) Talk You Out Of It 173350
98) This Is It 170870
99) Walk Me Home 170610

100) Beautiful 168810

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Go Loko 168310
102) Robbery 167880
103) GIRL 166000
104) Here Tonight 162220
105) Girl Like You 161290

November 24th, 2018 To November 30th, 2019 (54 Week Year):

91) Tequila 186120

92) Shotta Flow 184750

93) Cash Shit 183210

94) Love Lies 180600
95) Eyes On You 178400
96) All To Myself 177750
97) Talk You Out Of It 173350

98) On Chill 171490

99) This Is It 170870
100) Walk Me Home 170610

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Beautiful 168810
102) Go Loko 168310
103) Robbery 167880
104) GIRL 166000
105) HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 164700

December 1st, 2018 To November 23th, 2019 (52 Week Year):
91) Eyes On You 178400
92) Hot Girl Summer 177880
93) All To Myself 177750

94) Trip 177180
95) Tequila 173490

96) Talk You Out Of It 173350
97) This Is It 170870
98) Walk Me Home 170610
99) Go Loko 168310
100) Robbery 167880

- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

101) GIRL 166000

102) Love Lies 163630

103) Here Tonight 162220
104) Girl Like You 161290

105) On Chill 159030

December 1st, 2018 To November 30th, 2019 (53 Week Year):

91) Shotta Flow 184750

92) Eyes On You 178400
93) All To Myself 177750
94) Trip 177180
95) Tequila 173490
96) Talk You Out Of It 173350

97) On Chill 171490

98) This Is It 170870
99) Walk Me Home 170610
100) Go Loko 168310
- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -

101) Robbery 167880

102) GIRL 166000
103) HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 164700
104) Ballin' 164610
105) Lover 163960

The lowest song points wise that makes it in all 5 scenarios is Walk Me Home. The lowest song to make it in any scenario is Robbery.

[nathanalbright]

Good work. And of course, it should be noted that in all of these scenarios that Highest In The Room, Ballin, and Lover would fall short, though not by much if November 30, 2019 is included.

[GPMB]

thanks for doing that Delphox! however, there is absolutely no way that November 16 will be the final week of the chart year I’m sorry

[Deleted]

Nov 7, 2019 18:38:46 GMT -5 GPMB said:

thanks for doing that Delphox! however, there is absolutely no way that November 16 will be the final week of the chart year I’m sorry

Yeah I don't think it's possible at all. I still included it in case someone wanted to know. I don't think the 54 week one is possible either.

[nathanalbright]

Nov 7, 2019 18:39:50 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Nov 7, 2019 18:38:46 GMT -5 GPMB said:

thanks for doing that Delphox! however, there is absolutely no way that November 16 will be the final week of the chart year I’m sorry

Yeah I don't think it's possible at all. I still included it in case someone wanted to know. I don't think the 54 week one is possible either.

I agree with you; I think that either a 52 week year beginning on December 1, 2018 or a 53 week year that includes the missing week from last year or a 53 week year including 11/30 of this year are the most likely cases.

[GPMB]

the #1 song right now barely got over 30k points. fucking dismal

also i wonder if Baby Shark and Baby will be able to be right next to each other on the YE that would be funny

[Deleted]

Nov 8, 2019 0:48:46 GMT -5 GPMB said:

the #1 song right now barely got over 30k points. f**king dismal

also i wonder if Baby Shark and Baby will be able to be right next to each other on the YE that would be funny

It would but it doesn't seem that likely.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

I can agree with either 11-24-18 to 11-16-19 or 11-24-18 to 11-23-19 as long "Beautiful" is in!

[yuh yuh]

I really like Talk but I would love 7 rings to finish at #7 not #8..

[rockgolf]

Nov 7, 2019 13:40:47 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nov 7, 2019 6:49:35 GMT -5 jarhys said:

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

Rihanna's streak was 14 years and is the record for the longest. I think the top 5 longest ever are

Rihanna - 14 (2005-2018)
Taylor Swift - 13 (2007-2019)*
Lil Wayne - 13 (2005-2017)
Mariah Carey - 12 (1990-2001)
Drake - 11 (2009-2019)*

I looked up a whole bunch of old people like MJ, Whitney Houston, Stevie Wonder, Paul McCartney, and Madonna and none of them have an interrupted streak that long

Did you check Elton John?

[rockgolf]

My estimation of where songs will end up on the Billboard Top 100 of the year, based on the November 9, 2019 chart. I've added a "Final?" column showing where songs would finish if they stayed in their current position for the next two weeks, which I believe will be the last chart included in the count. (SPOILER: Selena will not remain #1 for the next two weeks, so probably won't make it. Can't see Travis Scott's new track making it either.)

With Truth Hurts reaching the top 10, I believe it is locked. Can't see any way other songs can get it.

[Lukas]

I would say that the #2 song this year consistently gets around 30K points every week. How many points the #1 song gets depend on its gap between it and #2.

[Groovy]

Am I the only who finds this year end list to be boring? Not even bad just flat uninteresting like half of these songs come off as so boring.

[dann]

Nov 8, 2019 9:37:22 GMT -5 Groovy said:

Am I the only who finds this year end list to be boring? Not even bad just flat uninteresting like half of these songs come off as so boring.

Half of these songs are not even from this year.

[moonlite]

2019 has been extremely boring, so yea. 2020 can't come fast enough

[dann]

Nov 8, 2019 9:54:48 GMT -5 moonlite said:

2019 has been extremely boring, so yea. 2020 can't come fast enough

For those who follow the graphics 2019 was an amazing year, already musically it was a very boring year really.

[whales10268]

It was way better than 2018 which was just Drake Drake Drake all the time. 2017 has too much mumble rap. Better than 2016 too. Best year for pop music since 2015.

[inverse]

Nov 8, 2019 8:14:58 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Nov 7, 2019 13:40:47 GMT -5 inverse said:

Rihanna's streak was 14 years and is the record for the longest. I think the top 5 longest ever are

Rihanna - 14 (2005-2018)
Taylor Swift - 13 (2007-2019)*
Lil Wayne - 13 (2005-2017)
Mariah Carey - 12 (1990-2001)
Drake - 11 (2009-2019)*

I looked up a whole bunch of old people like MJ, Whitney Houston, Stevie Wonder, Paul McCartney, and Madonna and none of them have an uninterrupted streak that long

Did you check Elton John?

Looked at that one just now, his best streak was 1972-1977 and even though he was a hitmaker for like 20 years after that they were pretty scattered

[nathanalbright]

Nov 8, 2019 13:12:27 GMT -5 inverse said:

Nov 8, 2019 8:14:58 GMT -5 rockgolf said:

Did you check Elton John?

Looked at that one just now, his best streak was 1972-1977 and even though he was a hitmaker for like 20 years after that they were pretty scattered

He did have a top 40 hit every year from like 1970 to 1998 or something like that, but not all of those years he hit the YE, obviously.

[Deleted]

Nov 8, 2019 13:46:42 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 8, 2019 13:12:27 GMT -5 inverse said:

Looked at that one just now, his best streak was 1972-1977 and even though he was a hitmaker for like 20 years after that they were pretty scattered

He did have a top 40 hit every year from like 1970 to 1998 or something like that, but not all of those years he hit the YE, obviously.

It was hard to make a Year-End list if you didn't hit the Top 10 back then, that's how fast the charts moved.

[Deleted]

Nov 8, 2019 13:46:42 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 8, 2019 13:12:27 GMT -5 inverse said:

Looked at that one just now, his best streak was 1972-1977 and even though he was a hitmaker for like 20 years after that they were pretty scattered

He did have a top 40 hit every year from like 1970 to 1998 or something like that, but not all of those years he hit the YE, obviously.

Yes, the only times he didn't make the Year-End charts are 1970, 1971, 1978, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1993 & 1996. He also had a top 40 hit in 1999 with LeAnn Rimes called "Written In The Stars". It didn't make the Year-End chart and it was his last Top 40 hit.

[tallen2001]

2019 is one of the better years for music in recent years. Way better than the mediocre and forgettable 2018.

[Deleted]

Sept 19, 2019 11:12:16 GMT -5 @delphox said:

I hope Good As Hell doesn't get caught between years.

Looks like it will make both year end lists, so that's great news.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Nov 8, 2019 14:13:48 GMT -5 @sape2830 said:

Nov 8, 2019 13:46:42 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

He did have a top 40 hit every year from like 1970 to 1998 or something like that, but not all of those years he hit the YE, obviously.

Yes, the only times he didn't make the Year-End charts are 1970, 1971, 1978, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1993 & 1996. He also had a top 40 hit in 1999 with LeAnn Rimes called "Written In The Stars". It didn't make the Year-End chart and it was his last Top 40 hit.

To add, he managed to have a Hot 100 entry from 1970 to 2000. Since then, no entries.