Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (2019) - Year 6

[mikerivera]

Nov 5, 2019 14:43:49 GMT -5 Kris said:

Looking at the gap between Sunflower and OTR, what's the biggest gap ever between year end #1s and #2s? I assume Candle In the Wind, but is there another?

I can’t speak for past decades, but Uptown Funk’s lead on Thinking Out Loud was about twice the size of Old Town Road‘s lead on Sunflower. Worth noting that Sunflower just fell off, so OTR has 2-3 weeks to get as big of a lead as possible (probably won’t top UF-TOL gap though)

[Deleted]

The week of November 30th, 2019 is really going to be the make or break week of many songs still charting, as well as those that have fallen off, depending on its inclusion or not.

Hot Girl Summer and Good As Hell should have no issue making the list without that week. However, songs like On Chill, Ballin', HIGHEST IN THE ROOM, Lover and now Hot need that week to have a chance at doing so.

That puts many songs like Tequila, Talk You Out Of It, This Is It, Walk Me Home, Go Loko, Robbery and GIRL at risk of being kicked off if that week is included.

[fhas]

Nov 5, 2019 15:36:23 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

Nov 5, 2019 14:43:49 GMT -5 Kris said:

Looking at the gap between Sunflower and OTR, what's the biggest gap ever between year end #1s and #2s? I assume Candle In the Wind, but is there another?

I can’t speak for past decades, but Uptown Funk’s lead on Thinking Out Loud was about twice the size of Old Town Road‘s lead on Sunflower. Worth noting that Sunflower just fell off, so OTR has 2-3 weeks to get as big of a lead as possible (probably won’t top UF-TOL gap though)

According to brocolli's predictions (page 1 of this thread), UF beat TOL by ~630k ~530k points. If rimetm's prediction is accurate, OTR is gonna beat Sunflower by ~400k.

[tuna]

Nov 5, 2019 13:59:36 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

Nov 5, 2019 2:06:03 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Imagine Highest in the room continuing to fall in a rate it did this week, then it might become the first 1# in a very long time not to appear on any ye list

I believe that Fantasia's "I Believe" was the last one to manage that.

I don't know much about points but I think Billboard gives #1s enough of a boost that it's near-impossible to get a #1 that doesn't make the year-end. And HIGHEST IN THE ROOM already has 4 weeks, so it's beyond Fantasia territory.

[mikerivera]

Nov 5, 2019 16:39:14 GMT -5 fhas said:

Nov 5, 2019 15:36:23 GMT -5 mikerivera said:

I can’t speak for past decades, but Uptown Funk’s lead on Thinking Out Loud was about twice the size of Old Town Road‘s lead on Sunflower. Worth noting that Sunflower just fell off, so OTR has 2-3 weeks to get as big of a lead as possible (probably won’t top UF-TOL gap though)

According to brocolli's predictions (page 1 of this thread), UF beat TOL by ~630k ~530k points. If rimetm's prediction is accurate, OTR is gonna beat Sunflower by ~400k.

The points in the 2015 predictions are valued differently from the ones in your’s and rimetm’s predictions. Which is why the #100 song in those predictions only had 135k points

[nathanalbright]

Nov 5, 2019 16:49:32 GMT -5 tuna said:

Nov 5, 2019 13:59:36 GMT -5 nathanalbright said:

I believe that Fantasia's "I Believe" was the last one to manage that.

I don't know much about points but I think Billboard gives #1s enough of a boost that it's near-impossible to get a #1 that doesn't make the year-end. And HIGHEST IN THE ROOM already has 4 weeks, so it's beyond Fantasia territory.

That's not quite the case.  In the American Idol age, specifically in 2006, Taylor Hicks' "Do I Make You Proud" was #1 for one week and barely made the year end charts at #99, having been on the chart for only 8 weeks, making it the first ever #1 hit to last fewer than ten weeks on the chart.  This would indicate that "Highest In The Room" is going to want as many weeks as possible to make sure it has enough real points to make the list.

[golfradio]

Nov 5, 2019 2:06:03 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

Imagine Highest in the room continuing to fall in a rate it did this week, then it might become the first 1# in a very long time not to appear on any ye list

I feel like that won't be the case considering a bunch of Hip-Hop songs fell this week due to JIK, Don't think it will come anywhere near the success of Sicko Mode or hell even The London but it'll definitely make the lower tier of 2020 at least

[spicymapping]

The final days....

TL, DR: 
Locked: Hot Girl Summer, Cash s**t, One Thing Right
Added: Good As Hell, Highest In The Room, Time

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Old Town Road (=)
3. Without Me (=)
4. bad guy (=)
5. Wow. (=)
6. 7 Rings (=)
7. Happier (=)
8. Sucker (=)
9. Talk (+1)
10. Truth Hurts (+1)
11. SICKO MODE (-2)
12. thank u, next (=)
13. High Hopes (=)
14. Señorita (+1)
15. Dancing With a Stranger (-1)
16. I Don't Care (=)
17. Eastside (=)
18. Shallow (=)
19. Going Bad (=)
20. Better (=)
21. No Guidance (+2)
22. Girls Like You (-1)
23. Sweet But Psycho (-1)
24. Suge (=)
25. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
26. Someone You Loved (+1)
27. Drip Too Hard (-1)
28. Ransom (=)
29. If I Can’t Have You (=)
30. Goodbyes (+2)
31. Please Me (-1)
32. ZEZE (-1)
33. Better Now (=)
34. Money In The Grave (+1)
35. Youngblood (-1)
36. You Need To Calm Down (+2)
37. Speechless (-1)
38. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
39. Money (=)
40. Panini (+3)
41. Pop Out (-1)
42. a lot (-1)
43. MIA (-1)
44. Look Back At It (=)
45. ME! (=)
46. Thotiana (=)
47. Beautiful Crazy (=)
48. God's Country (=)
49. Lucid Dreams (=)
50. Whiskey Glasses (=)
51. Mo Bamba (=)
52. Beautiful People (+4)
53. Wake Up In The Sky (-1)
54. Be Alright (-1)
55. Pure Water (-1)
56. The Git Up (-1)
57. Close To Me (=)
58. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (=)
59. Taki Taki (=)
60. The London (=)
61. Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
62. You Say (=)
63. Circles (+5)
64. Envy Me (-1)
65. Con Calma (-1)
66. when the party’s over (-1)
67. Murder on My Mind (-1)
68. Act Up (-1)
69. I Like It (=)
70. Leave Me Alone (=)
71. Trampoline (+3)
72. Breathin (-1)
73. Close Friends (-1)
74. bury a friend (-1)
75. Baby Shark (=)
76. My Type (+2)
77. Knockin' Boots (-1)
78. Only Human (+3)
79. Worth It (-2)
80. Baby (+3)
81. How Do You Sleep? (+4)
82. Trip (-3)
83. Swervin (-3)
84. Rumor (-2)
85. Tequila (-1)
86. Look What God Gave Her (=)
87. Clout (=)
88. Hot Girl Summer (+6) 
89. Good as You (-1)
90. Love Lies (-1)
91. Shotta Flow (-1)
92. Talk You Out Of It (-1)
93. Boyfriend (-1)
94. Cash s**t (+1) 
95. One Thing Right (+3)
96. All To Myself (-3)

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 1450

97. Eyes on You (-1)
98. Robbery (-1)
99. Beautiful (=)
100. Never Really Over (=)

115. On Chill (+11) - WA: 2
116. Good As Hell (NEW) - WA: 1
121. Lover (+8) - WA: 3
122. I Don't Know About You (+3) - WA: E
128. Ballin’ (+11) - WA: 3
131. Hot (+13) - WA: E
132. Highest In The Room (NEW) - WA: 2
134. Lalala (+4) - WA: 3
139. China (+1) - WA: E
141. Time (NEW) - WA: E

[dremolus - solarpunk]

I'm confused: will November 30 be counted for this year or not?

[nathanalbright]

Nov 5, 2019 22:17:35 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

I'm confused: will November 30 be counted for this year or not?

We don't know yet.

[kierz7]

Will “Lose You To Love Me” make the Y/E chart?

[nathanalbright]

Nov 5, 2019 22:36:09 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Will “Lose You To Love Me” make the Y/E chart?

It's not likely.  It would need to gain a lot of points in the next few weeks in order to have a chance at it.

[Lukas]

Nov 5, 2019 22:36:09 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Will “Lose You To Love Me” make the Y/E chart?

Unfortunately, not at all. Even if got the same amount of points that it got this week for the rest of the tracking year, it won't make it. But at least it has great chance at making the 2020 YE!!!!

[GPMB]

I obviously don’t have my inverse system predictions ready to post yet since the chart year still has a few weeks left, but what I do have is my predictions of where the 11/24 songs will land with and without that week counted using said system

Song | Pos. if 11/24 counted | Pos if 11/24 not counted
Sunflower | #2 | #2
Without Me | #3 | #3
Happier | #7 | #7
SICKO MODE | #9 | #12
thank u, next | #13 | #14
High Hopes | #15 | #15
Eastside | #18 | #18
Shallow | #19 | #19
Girls like You | #22 | #28
Better | #23 | #26
Drip Too Hard | #28 | #30
ZEZE | #33 | #35
Better Now | #35 | #39
Speechless | #38 | #38
Youngblood | #39 | #41
Money | #42 | #45
MIA | #47 | #51
Mo Bamba | #50 | #56
Lucid Dreams | #51 | #60
Wake Up in the Sky | #54 | #59
Be Alright | #56 | #55
You Say | #61 | #64
Taki Taki | #65 | #69
when the party’s over | #70 | #72
I Like It | #72 | #74
Leave Me Alone | #73 | #78
breathin | #74 | #81
Close Friends | #79 | #84
Trip | #86 | #96
Tequila | #90 | #98
Love Lies | #96 | N/A
Beautiful | #99 | N/A

yes i know this is inaccurate and a waste of time shut up

[sirskimask]

Any chance for SICKO MODE to still make the top 10 for the YE if 11/24 is counted?

[tuna]

Nov 5, 2019 20:05:59 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

The final days....

TL, DR: 
Locked: Hot Girl Summer, Cash s**t, One Thing Right
Added: Good As Hell, Highest In The Room, Time

1. Sunflower (=)
2. Old Town Road (=)
3. Without Me (=)
4. bad guy (=)
5. Wow. (=)
6. 7 Rings (=)
7. Happier (=)
8. Sucker (=)
9. Talk (+1)
10. Truth Hurts (+1)
11. SICKO MODE (-2)
12. thank u, next (=)
13. High Hopes (=)
14. Señorita (+1)
15. Dancing With a Stranger (-1)
16. I Don't Care (=)
17. Eastside (=)
18. Shallow (=)
19. Going Bad (=)
20. Better (=)
21. No Guidance (+2)
22. Girls Like You (-1)
23. Sweet But Psycho (-1)
24. Suge (=)
25. MIDDLE CHILD (=)
26. Someone You Loved (+1)
27. Drip Too Hard (-1)
28. Ransom (=)
29. If I Can’t Have You (=)
30. Goodbyes (+2)
31. Please Me (-1)
32. ZEZE (-1)
33. Better Now (=)
34. Money In The Grave (+1)
35. Youngblood (-1)
36. You Need To Calm Down (+2)
37. Speechless (-1)
38. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored (-1)
39. Money (=)
40. Panini (+3)
41. Pop Out (-1)
42. a lot (-1)
43. MIA (-1)
44. Look Back At It (=)
45. ME! (=)
46. Thotiana (=)
47. Beautiful Crazy (=)
48. God's Country (=)
49. Lucid Dreams (=)
50. Whiskey Glasses (=)
51. Mo Bamba (=)
52. Beautiful People (+4)
53. Wake Up In The Sky (-1)
54. Be Alright (-1)
55. Pure Water (-1)
56. The Git Up (-1)
57. Close To Me (=)
58. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (=)
59. Taki Taki (=)
60. The London (=)
61. Beer Never Broke My Heart (=)
62. You Say (=)
63. Circles (+5)
64. Envy Me (-1)
65. Con Calma (-1)
66. when the party’s over (-1)
67. Murder on My Mind (-1)
68. Act Up (-1)
69. I Like It (=)
70. Leave Me Alone (=)
71. Trampoline (+3)
72. Breathin (-1)
73. Close Friends (-1)
74. bury a friend (-1)
75. Baby Shark (=)
76. My Type (+2)
77. Knockin' Boots (-1)
78. Only Human (+3)
79. Worth It (-2)
80. Baby (+3)
81. How Do You Sleep? (+4)
82. Trip (-3)
83. Swervin (-3)
84. Rumor (-2)
85. Tequila (-1)
86. Look What God Gave Her (=)
87. Clout (=)
88. Hot Girl Summer (+6) 
89. Good as You (-1)
90. Love Lies (-1)
91. Shotta Flow (-1)
92. Talk You Out Of It (-1)
93. Boyfriend (-1)
94. Cash s**t (+1) 
95. One Thing Right (+3)
96. All To Myself (-3)

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 1450

97. Eyes on You (-1)
98. Robbery (-1)
99. Beautiful (=)
100. Never Really Over (=)

115. On Chill (+11) - WA: 2
116. Good As Hell (NEW) - WA: 1
121. Lover (+8) - WA: 3
122. I Don't Know About You (+3) - WA: E
128. Ballin’ (+11) - WA: 3
131. Hot (+13) - WA: E
132. Highest In The Room (NEW) - WA: 2
134. Lalala (+4) - WA: 3
139. China (+1) - WA: E
141. Time (NEW) - WA: E

I really hope some of the great low-hanging songs from this year can make it on through some miracle. At this point i'm getting desperate but i'll be so mad if Lalala and EARFQUAKE and Lover go the way of Chun-Li

[n13l5]

I feel like im the only one here who is glad that Lalala isnt gonna make it

[lights]

Nov 6, 2019 9:59:54 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

I feel like im the only one here who is glad that Lalala isnt gonna make it

I wanted Lalala to make it, but only because I'm running low on worst list material.

[Lukas]

Nov 6, 2019 1:28:27 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Any chance for SICKO MODE to still make the top 10 for the YE if 11/24 is counted?

It’s at #8 right now. The only songs that could pass it would be Talk and Sucker. Truth Hurts is about 130,000 points away from Sicko Mode, so it won’t pass it by the end of the year. So I think it will make the top 10 for sure.

[tuna]

Nov 6, 2019 10:07:39 GMT -5 lights said:

Nov 6, 2019 9:59:54 GMT -5 n13l5 said:

I feel like im the only one here who is glad that Lalala isnt gonna make it

I wanted Lalala to make it, but only because I'm running low on worst list material.

It's a good sign that there's barely any worst list material this year, but Lalala is amazing and you're a heathen

[Deleted]

I'm beginning to think HIGHEST IN THE ROOM won't make the 2019 year end list even with the inclusion of the November 30th, 2019. It is only strong on streaming and even that is bleeding. Although I expect radio to eventually catch on with the song, it will likely be too little too late. It will probably make the 2020 year end list though due to whatever streaming it has left and the rising radio gains, although very likely in the lower half.

Looking at rimetm's weekly numbers, it appears that HIGHEST IN THE ROOM has around 110,000 points (I'm estimating this week since his numbers haven't come out yet). That means it would need an average of 20,000 points (which is about how many points it has this week) to pass the 170,000 point cutoff range, and this is only if they count that extra week. So if it wants to stand a chance at making it, it needs to stabilize quickly.

[Naos]

I am saddened by the hate on "Lalala" here.

[yosh9x]

Anyone else realize that rhianna has been on every year end list from 2005-2018 and this year she won't

[n13l5]

Nov 6, 2019 15:06:28 GMT -5 Naos said:

I am saddened by the hate on "Lalala" here.

I'm sorry to make you feel that way

[jarhys]

Nov 6, 2019 22:03:45 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Anyone else realize that rhianna has been on every year end list from 2005-2018 and this year she won't

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

[tallen2001]

Nov 7, 2019 6:49:35 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Nov 6, 2019 22:03:45 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Anyone else realize that rhianna has been on every year end list from 2005-2018 and this year she won't

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

Selena also will be on every YE this decade.

[hydraflare]

Nov 7, 2019 8:08:56 GMT -5 tallen2001 said:

Nov 7, 2019 6:49:35 GMT -5 jarhys said:

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

Selena also will be on every YE this decade.

I don't think she was on 2014

[Lukas]

Selena wasn't in 2014.

[yosh9x]

Nov 7, 2019 6:49:35 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Nov 6, 2019 22:03:45 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Anyone else realize that rhianna has been on every year end list from 2005-2018 and this year she won't

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

Taylor since 2007 and Drake since 2009

[inverse]

Nov 7, 2019 6:49:35 GMT -5 jarhys said:

Nov 6, 2019 22:03:45 GMT -5 yosh9x said:

Anyone else realize that rhianna has been on every year end list from 2005-2018 and this year she won't

I wonder if that’s the record for the longest streak. Taylor Swift and Drake are still keeping the momentum.

Rihanna's streak was 14 years and is the record for the longest. I think the top 5 longest ever are

Rihanna - 14 (2005-2018)
Taylor Swift - 13 (2007-2019)*
Lil Wayne - 13 (2005-2017)
Mariah Carey - 12 (1990-2001)
Drake - 11 (2009-2019)*

I looked up a whole bunch of old people like MJ, Whitney Houston, Stevie Wonder, Paul McCartney, and Madonna and none of them have an interrupted streak that long