onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Aug 20, 2014 16:30:56 GMT -5
#1 in Canada! Molson or Labatt, anyone?
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evan93
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Post by evan93 on Aug 26, 2014 5:41:43 GMT -5
#1 on the real time tracker! (Lol at Ed Sheeran tho)
Country No.1 Lady Antebellum Bartender +1271 Ed Sheeran Don't
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Aug 26, 2014 16:13:30 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative here, but if "Meanwhile Back at Mama's" isn't a number one and this song is, it speaks to the problem at Country radio today big time.
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sabre14
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Post by sabre14 on Aug 26, 2014 16:19:14 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative here, but if "Meanwhile Back at Mama's" isn't a number one and this song is, it speaks to the problem at Country radio today big time. I think you could point out numerous songs that went #1 that weren't very good and many that weren't hits that were excellent songs but not this situation. Big Machine has nobody to blame but themselves why "Mama's" missed #1. The song itself was played nearly 7900 times on the MB monitored stations this past week and was a huge hit. So what if it barley missed the top because of a massive all or nothing push by the single's label - it still was a huge success in a day and age that radio has drifted away from those songs. I don't think "Mama's" missing the top spot by roughly 75 points on MB and roughly 400k in audience on Billboard and "Bartender" hitting #1 speaks to the problem with country radio. Many examples I could point to but not this one.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2014 16:40:53 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be negative here, but if "Meanwhile Back at Mama's" isn't a number one and this song is, it speaks to the problem at Country radio today big time. "#1" and "#2" are just chart positions. In terms of total audience, Tim's song had 1 million more impressions (47.839) on last night's chart than Dierks did in his first week at #1 the previous week (46.889). It's simply that when "Meanwhile Back At Mama's" peaked, there was another song with a slightly higher peak (as Dierks kept gaining this week). That's really all that it comes down to sometimes--a window of time to get to #1. Tim had terrible timing (and really, every song in the top 10 right now has terrible timing, because they are all big names), and therefore his window of opportunity to top the chart was super narrow and he just missed out. Joe Nichols' "Yeah", on the other hand, benefited from great timing and wound up with a 3-week stay at #1 on Billboard. There were simply not as many big songs hitting their peak levels when Joe did. That's not to take away from his accomplishment--3 weeks at #1 nowadays is pretty incredible--but I just merely point it out to illustrate that sometimes all it comes down to is timing, good or bad. If Tim's song had been released 2 weeks earlier, it may have wound up with 2 weeks at #1 and "Drunk On A Plane" may have been the song to just miss out. But there's no way for the labels to know how things will shake out until their artists' songs are already way up into the top 10. As they say, hindsight is 20-20. "Bartender" should easily be #1 this week. Tim's song will start falling fast in the coming days, especially with a new single having just been sent to radio today. Lady A might be able to get 2 weeks at the top as well (which would be 4 weeks in a row for Capitol), but I'll say that Kenny holds them to just 1 week at the top. I'm also anticipating a fairly big push for Dustin Lynch's tune, as this would be his first #1 hit ("Cowboys And Angels" was a #2 from a couple years ago), and he also has an album dropping on Sept. 9. Another thing I'll point out--Mediabase spin peaks from this year. Dierks Bentley's "Drunk On A Plane" - 7896 Tim McGraw's "Meanwhile Back At Mama's" - 7890 Joe Nichols' "Yeah" - 7839 Lee Brice's "I Don't Dance" - 7820 Blake Shelton's "My Eyes" - 7797 Luke Bryan's "Play It Again" - 7744 Billy Currington's "We Are Tonight" - 7724 Jake Owen's "Beachin'" - 7636 So Tim had a higher 1-week spins total than all #1's this year except "Drunk On A Plane". And correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the Dierks and Tim spins numbers are the highest we've ever seen on Mediabase (although, with current radio trends, this record will likely be broken again shortly or, at the latest, sometime next year).
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Aug 26, 2014 16:55:27 GMT -5
I wasn't so much speaking as to the airplay, more to the quality of songs. Tim's is just clear and away a better song than "Bartender" which is probably my least favorite Lady a single period.
I do see y'all's argument though and a number 2 with massive airplay numbers is just as a good, it's just the quality of "Number One hits" nowadays isn't as good as I think it should be. "Bartender" is a song I can see people liking but I would think it's more of a Top 15/Top 20 tune.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2014 19:47:22 GMT -5
I wasn't so much speaking as to the airplay, more to the quality of songs. Tim's is just clear and away a better song than "Bartender" which is probably my least favorite Lady a single period.This is a really subjective argument, though, so it's tough to really go this route. I personally love both songs. I would agree that Tim's song has probably a better story and better lyrics, but Lady A's is a fun pop-country song that I have no problems with either. Obviously it'd be nice for the label and Tim and all the fans to be able to call MBAM an official #1 song but it just didn't work out--simply really bad luck. It's not really a reflection of radio and the quality (or lack thereof) in the songs that are getting to #1, because as I stated, almost any other week of the year, this song would've probably gotten to #1 fairly easily. Had it been released 2 weeks later OR earlier, it would've probably gone #1, and either "Drunk On A Plane" or "Bartender" would've probably been the song to miss out on the top spot.
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musicbuff78
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Post by musicbuff78 on Aug 26, 2014 21:31:51 GMT -5
Anyone else surprised that after being the one to introduce the board to the group back in the days of Myspace that this will be the first album of theirs I will NOT be buying??! LOL
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Aug 27, 2014 15:43:52 GMT -5
Chart positions, spin totals, and the like are all relative to what's going on in the industry. #1 songs today earn nearly double the spins as songs even 4-5 years ago thanks to increased panels and the move of PDs acting like country radio is CHR/POP. Who is deserving of being #1 is a personal preference only, as I like Drunk on a Plane more than the Tim McGraw song and am happy it hit the top for a couple weeks. Tim's song doesn't seem that genuine to me for some reason.
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Kentucky25
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Post by Kentucky25 on Aug 27, 2014 20:14:29 GMT -5
Chart positions, spin totals, and the like are all relative to what's going on in the industry. #1 songs today earn nearly double the spins as songs even 4-5 years ago thanks to increased panels and the move of PDs acting like country radio is CHR/POP. Who is deserving of being #1 is a personal preference only, as I like Drunk on a Plane more than the Tim McGraw song and am happy it hit the top for a couple weeks. Tim's song doesn't seem that genuine to me for some reason. Could be he's singing about hard financial times and we all know he's probably not having those...lol
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 21:51:30 GMT -5
Next week will be another interesting battle between Capitol Nashville and this time Columbia Nashville. Kenny Chesney's single "American Kids" is about 3.5 million behind this Lady Antebellum record in audience on the Billboard airplay chart. If "Kids" out-gains "Bartender" by another approx. 1.5 million this week, then that will place "Kids" about 2 million behind "Bartender" on next Monday's Billboard published chart, so Columbia Nashville may jump the gun as Tim McGraw's record label did last week and do a massive unnecessary push for #1. (The odds of such a push closing the 2 million projected audience gap between the two singles would actually be higher than they were last week when Tim McGraw's push occurred considering that Tim McGraw's big push resulted in the Tim/Faith record out-gaining the Dierks record by 3 million audience, and of course the Tim/Faith record had way more ground to cover than the Kenny Chesney record would next week.)
However, the obvious response to me would be for Kenny Chesney's record label to instead wait a week in case Capitol Nashville seeks a second week at #1 for the Lady Antebellum record, and then the Kenny Chesney single can have an uncontested run to #1 the following week (9/8-9/14 airplay tracking week).
I do believe Capitol's plans are to fight for two weeks at #1 on the Lady A record, as "Bartender"'s digital sales have been quite strong and the record has had an even quicker chart run than the recent hits from Dierks Bentley and Tim McGraw/Faith Hill. I also believe that a #1 push done by Kenny Chesney's record label next week could come up short considering the ratio of Capitol Nashville to Columbia Nashville airplay weeks at #1 this year is so far 10:0. However, I lean towards the prediction that there will not be an unnecessary push for "Kids" next week simply because the record is so young and there's no need to push it early.
On a side note, Capitol Nashville is, to quote Dustin Lynch, "where it's at" this year. Once "Bartender" collects a week at #1 on Monday's published Billboard chart, Capitol Nashville will have roughly 30% of the weeks at #1 so far in 2014. (Warner Music Nashville and Republic Nashville come in at second place with approx. 11% of the weeks at #1, but Republic Nashville hasn't accomplished much since Florida Georgia Line's "Stay" began the year with a four-week stay at #1 on the charts.) By the end of 2014, I'm sure Capitol Nashville will also collect a week or two at #1 with Luke Bryan's current single "Roller Coaster" and likely two more #1 singles with Little Big Town and Keith Urban as well as possibly a second week at #1 for this Lady Antebellum single. This would place Capitol Nashville at #1 on the Billboard airplay chart for a third of 2014!
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Zazie
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Post by Zazie on Aug 29, 2014 8:47:57 GMT -5
I think Bartender's a much better written (and better-performed) song based on a long-standing country theme. I think Mama's is as 'meh' as you can get, although in the context of today's horrible songwriting it does sound better than it would have in 1995. It's definitely country but not all that good. Pleasant yet meh. I still don't get why the for-sale sign needs to go up. Aren't they family? Why are they selling it without talking to Tim?
My opinion (and the success of Bartender) doesn't imply anything about the nature of country radio. I only bring it up because if we're going to start judging country radio by opinions about individual songs, I'd better scramble to get my opinion in there. P.S. If the Aldean song gets to #1, or I should say when the Aldean song gets to #1, the world will definitely end. Yikes!
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zjames
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Post by zjames on Aug 29, 2014 13:20:32 GMT -5
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Aug 29, 2014 20:09:47 GMT -5
Those spin records will indeed be broken later this year or early next year as more stations are added to the Mediabase panel; Sacramento got a third country station a few months ago, and as hot as the format is these days, there will undoubtedly be more flips from other formats to country, and as is frequently the case during the final two weeks of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if a few more stations drop their current format and flip to country right after Christmas.
I don't even keep track of SPSPW numbers anymore, and the only reason I introduced that term to this board in 2005 when 'Jesus, Take The Wheel' was released was because of the buzz created by Carrie's triumph on AI, which predictably led to that tune setting some serious chart and airplay records, and especially for a debut single.
Cumulus is definitely going all-in in flipping some of their marginal stations to country and installing their 'NASH-Icon' template on them, and I expect to see quite a few more of those next year as well; since they only have to play 25% current music to remain on the Mediabase panel, a lot of them will definitely be loading up on gold tunes from the previous two decades as well as a sprinkling of classics from the 70s and 80s.
Congrats to Lady Antebellum for reaching #1; this is one of my favorite songs right now, and one of the few I can listen to these days without having to change the station.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 10:27:28 GMT -5
An interesting turn of events today on Mediabase. Lady A lost 500k but still gained 10 spins, whereas the Chesney push has finally surfaced. "American Kids" gains 118 spins and 378k in audience today. Kenny now trails Lady A by just 64 spins on MB, so he could conceivably overtake them tomorrow morning, if tomorrow's update is similar to today's.
Capitol Nashville had '#1 and still going strong' ads out for "Bartender" in both BB and Aircheck on Monday, whereas Columbia Nashville has had 'Max Spins Now!' ads out for "American Kids" in the daily Aircheck emails this week. Up until today, it looked like Lady A would hold on to the #1 spot on both charts, but now I'm not so sure, particularly with Mediabase.
Lady A's Billboard lead was about 3.6 million, and they managed to have a couple of positive updates at the start of the week, but just over the last 3 days now they've lost 600k, 420k, and 560k, respectively, which leaves "Bartender" down about 730k since Monday. On Wednesday I was thinking that they had a chance to have just the 2nd song ever to surpass 50 million on Billboard, but that won't happen now.
Kenny's up about 1.3 mil since Monday, so between the 2 of them, about 2 mil has been shaved off of the 3.6 million gap. Can Kenny make up the last 1.6 mil in the final 2 days of the Billboard week? It's hard to say. I think he's got a good chance at the Mediabase #1, though, given that he's so close to Lady A in spins there.
"Bartender" has been a huge hit for Lady Antebellum, but "American Kids" has been just as big for Kenny (if not bigger), so I really hope that Columbia Nashville gets it to #1 on both charts. I'll be sorely disappointed if it hits #1 on Mediabase tomorrow but stays #2 on Monday's Billboard chart, and then starts to fall next week.
Kenny co-hosts Lon Helton's countdown this weekend, and Dustin Lynch is listed as the co-host for September 20-21...no one is listed for the 13-14th. It's not that I'm rooting against Dustin getting his first ever #1 hit, but I would really hate for him to get a Billboard #1 and for Kenny not to, since "American Kids" has clearly out-performed "Where It's At" on all fronts. I'm just worried that if Kenny doesn't get to #1 on Monday's BB (that is, if Lady A remains barely ahead of him), then Dustin will be the one to follow Lady A, as he has the benefit of an album releasing on Tuesday.
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onebuffalo
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Post by onebuffalo on Sept 6, 2014 10:36:54 GMT -5
In either situation, Kenny Chesney will remain #14 with 23 #1 hits or #4 with 11 #2 hits wherever American Kids decides to peak. However, I would not mind seeing Lady Antebellum stay at #1 for a second week. Capitol is just dominating the action here with Lady A and Dierks Bentley (soon, Luke Bryan).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 11:42:52 GMT -5
Kenny Chesney is co-hosting County Countdown USA this weekend and next weekend, so his song'll likely get two weeks of extra spins, meaning he will have a big gain this Monday (9/8), neither a big gain nor a big loss next Monday (9/15), and a big loss 9/22.
Right now, "Bartender" is still #1 on Billboard's #1 ticker, but I find it likely that with no record label around to work the phones for this single over the weekend, "Bartender" will surely fall from #1 by Monday's Billboard chart and they'll probably end up with only 2 weeks at #1 on Mediabase. "American Kids" will probably be the victor on Billboard.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 12:46:40 GMT -5
Who is upcoming on the chart after American Kids? I think Kenny could see a 2/3 week #1 until Luke catches up. Really, Where It's At and Hope You Get Lonely are not #1 songs and I hope we don't see some fabricated chart-topping tactics for them. I'm gonna say Bartender gets one more week. Then 2 for Kenny. Then it's on to Luke. What's the fastest rise to #1? Kenny would be at 12 weeks if he does it this week right?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 12:53:04 GMT -5
Who is upcoming on the chart after American Kids? I think Kenny could see a 2/3 week #1 until Luke catches up. Really, Where It's At and Hope You Get Lonely are not #1 songs and I hope we don't see some fabricated chart-topping tactics for them. I'm gonna say Bartender gets one more week. Then 2 for Kenny. Then it's on to Luke. What's the fastest rise to #1? Kenny would be at 12 weeks if he does it this week right? Dustin Lynch and Cole Swindell both have a great chance to get to #1...Dustin, especially, as he's got the added buzz of an album releasing on Tuesday. I highly doubt Kenny will spend more than 2 weeks at #1, and at this point I'm a little worried that he might not even get 1 week at the top. In this day and age, almost every song that goes top 5 eventually gets a turn at #1 (especially on MB--in this case, I'm worried that that's all Kenny will get, and he'll get stuck with a #2 BB peak. But there's still time). I'd say it happens about 95% of the time, and I fully expect both Broken Bow and Warner Bros. to go the extra mile for Dustin and Cole. As for your question, the fastest rise to #1 would be 1 week. Garth Brooks' "More Than A Memory" debuted at #1 back in 2007. After that I couldn't say, but I know Kenny has made it to #1 in as little as 8 weeks before, with both "Never Wanted Nothing More" and "Don't Blink". Monday's chart will indeed mark the 12th week on Billboard for "American Kids", which is an incredibly fast pace.
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 6, 2014 12:57:40 GMT -5
Who is upcoming on the chart after American Kids? I think Kenny could see a 2/3 week #1 until Luke catches up. Really, Where It's At and Hope You Get Lonely are not #1 songs and I hope we don't see some fabricated chart-topping tactics for them. I'm gonna say Bartender gets one more week. Then 2 for Kenny. Then it's on to Luke. What's the fastest rise to #1? Kenny would be at 12 weeks if he does it this week right? Hope You Get Lonely Tonight and Where's It's At might not be the same caliber as Bartender, American Kids, or Dirt, but I do feel they're at least worthy of the discussion for #1 (Both will be gold soon, and seem to be semi-popular). They're certainly more worthy than Lettin' The Night Roll and Beat of the Music.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2014 13:04:26 GMT -5
The race between "Bartender" and "American Kids" is going to be a photo finish on Billboard tomorrow. "Bartender" is still #1 on the Billboard #1/most added ticker, but "Kids" will definitely be #1 in audience on Mediabase tomorrow with the rate "Bartender" is falling and the bonus spins "Kids" should pick up from being played twice on Country Countdown USA this weekend. Therefore, which song is #1 all depends on how the numbers convert on Billboard.
Last week, "Bartender" did have a better conversion ratio on Billboard than "Kids." The Lady Antebellum single gained 2.642 million audience impressions from 8/25-9/1 (the Billboard tracking week) on Mediabase, while the Kenny Chesney single gained 2.769 million on Mediabase. However, Lady A came out with a 2.917 million audience gain on Billboard and Chesney was a tad behind them with a 2.735 million gain. So this really could go either way tomorrow. It's pretty tough to predict, but I might go with "Bartender" staying at #1 just by a hair.
Next week begins a brand new horse race, with Dustin Lynch's album release fueling what will probably be a powerful #1 push for his single "Where It's At" and "American Kids" trying to put forth another #1 push after the big numbers the single has already posted all week.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Sept 7, 2014 19:42:35 GMT -5
Capitol Records Nashville has been the #1 label in Nashville as it relates to airplay for the past five years, and based on the spectacular year which 2014 has been for Lady Antebellum, Luke, Keith Urban and Dierks Bentley, 6 straight years is a foregone conclusion.
I'm not that big of a Luke Bryan fan, but I think the world of Keith and Dierks, and Lady Antebellum's current single and its #1 predecessor are arguably their best back-to-back singles to date.
Of course the fact that 'Drunk On A Plane' and 'Bartender' ranked #1 and #2 in terms of airplay last month with the former edging the latter by a mere 305 spins certainly didn't hurt either.
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Sept 7, 2014 21:05:57 GMT -5
After this song, I'm really excited for their new album. Also the fact that they recorded Ben Rector's "She Is" for the new album has me stoked as that's one of my favorites from him (check him out if you haven't already- he's great). So hopefully "747" ends up being much more exciting than "Golden" was (which was their most disappointing album to date for me). I know it's unlikely anything will ever top their debut album for me, but I hope they stop this downward slide in quality from album to album that they've had from their past 3 albums. With "Bartender" and "She Is", I can already say that there's at least 2 songs on "747" better than anything on "Golden".
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dm2081
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Post by dm2081 on Sept 7, 2014 21:28:53 GMT -5
I also appreciate that they haven't released another song from the album to iTunes yet. It kind of frustrates me when by the time a album has finally come out, I've already heard 5-6 of the new songs because of their iTunes release. I'll be curious to see if they release one this week, or if they're going to hold out to the album comes out (which I hope for the former).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2014 21:37:52 GMT -5
They've clinched a 2nd week at #1 on Mediabase, but I am hoping that @daydrinker is right and that Kenny takes over the #1 spot on Billboard tomorrow. I've got Lady A projecting to about 47.7 million on Billboard tomorrow, and I've got Kenny checking in a hair above 47.6 mil. Surely Columbia Nashville has to know how close they are..? I didn't really factor in any of the added/subtracted CC-USA airplay, either.
You can never know in these close races. But as of right now I'll predict a 55% chance of Kenny getting the BB #1 tomorrow, with the other 45% chance going to Lady A.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2014 21:41:14 GMT -5
Any chance Kenny could get it this week and then Lady A could retake it the week after? This song clearly is very popular and this doesn't seem to be a fabricated push for #1.
How often does it happen where a song is #1 and then bumped down and then bumped back up? I know it's more likely on the Hot Country chart than this one.
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hosssulpizio
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Post by hosssulpizio on Sept 7, 2014 21:46:38 GMT -5
Any chance Kenny could get it this week and then Lady A could retake it the week after? This song clearly is very popular and this doesn't seem to be a fabricated push for #1. How often does it happen where a song is #1 and then bumped down and then bumped back up? I know it's more likely on the Hot Country chart than this one. I do hope Kenny overtakes Lady A. I really want to see Kenny Chesney earn another number one on the Country charts. "American Kids" is a great song and I think it should definitely be number one already.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2014 21:57:59 GMT -5
Any chance Kenny could get it this week and then Lady A could retake it the week after? This song clearly is very popular and this doesn't seem to be a fabricated push for #1. How often does it happen where a song is #1 and then bumped down and then bumped back up? It's very unlikely and it won't happen here. "Bartender" peaked in audience on Mediabase back on the 3rd, with 57.476 million. Over the last 4 days they've fallen down to 55.318 million. What I meant is that "Bartender" has already secured a 2nd week at #1 on Mediabase. The MB chart is official as of this evening and "Bartender" remains #1. But the Billboard tracking week goes through 11:59 PM on Sundays, so Kenny has an extra day to overtake Lady A on Billboard, and I'm starting to think that he just might do it. Neither "Bartender" nor "American Kids" has had any sort of fabricated push for #1, either, which is what I like to see. Lady A gets 2 weeks at #1 on Mediabase and they've already gotten 1 week at #1 on Billboard. Now it's possible that Kenny will get 2 weeks at #1 on Billboard but only 1 week at #1 on Mediabase (next weekend). That's not a guarantee for Kenny yet, though, and it also depends on how Dustin Lynch does this coming week, and that's a whole different discussion.
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zaclord 🌈
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Post by zaclord 🌈 on Sept 8, 2014 0:27:15 GMT -5
Any chance Kenny could get it this week and then Lady A could retake it the week after? This song clearly is very popular and this doesn't seem to be a fabricated push for #1. How often does it happen where a song is #1 and then bumped down and then bumped back up? I know it's more likely on the Hot Country chart than this one. That's certainly a rare case when that happens. The last songs I remember doing that were Jimmy Wayne's "Do You Believe Me Now" (what a fantastic song) and Dierks Bentley's "Come a Little Closer" (I believe this is the correct Dierks song). But both of those were several years ago. It may have happened since then, but in today's market, typically once a song hits number one it free-falls into recurrency in two weeks.
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Marv
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Post by Marv on Sept 8, 2014 0:36:08 GMT -5
Yet another nailbiter in the race for #1, with 'Bartender' earning a second week in the penthouse by a mere 69 points.
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