Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 27, 2014 13:00:33 GMT -5
It will help the campaign to get Dark Horse to #1 song of the year - ;)
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Jun 27, 2014 13:12:49 GMT -5
IGGY AZALEA – Black Widow f/Rita Ora: 3.519 (+ 1.093)
Yesss, DH part 2!
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imbondz
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Post by imbondz on Jun 27, 2014 13:14:27 GMT -5
I'm sure we can argue this in other threads and when it gets closer to year end but Happy is clearly the biggest hit of the year so far whether Billboard reflects that or not. It not only jumped most every genre, grandparents were dancing to it. It jumped color, race, age, continents. I'm hoping it's sales takes it over Dark Horses radio longevity
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 27, 2014 13:21:52 GMT -5
I'm sure we can argue this in other threads and when it gets closer to year end but Happy is clearly the biggest hit of the year so far whether Billboard reflects that or not. It not only jumped most every genre, grandparents were dancing to it. It jumped color, race, age, continents. I'm hoping it's sales takes it over Dark Horses radio longevity Oh I agree 100%. The two "prediction" threads have different lists on this site(I get that) The slide down looks similar in both streaming and airplay. The sales advantage goes to Happy(1 million plus this year so far) The 10 weeks at #1(with near record airplay) and 21 weeks (so far) in the top 10 will help too. Happy had the bigger run up. Both are sliding gradually and at about the same pace. In my opinion, it is not even a question |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 27, 2014 13:25:01 GMT -5
"Happy" and DH have logged a similar number of weeks in the top 10 (22, I think, for DH vs. 21 for "Happy" through this week). DH has been on the chart longer though, while "Happy" netted more weeks at No. 1. I'd also think that "Happy" has the edge.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 27, 2014 13:31:12 GMT -5
The sales difference and the 10 weeks at #1 (some with near record airplay) should more than negate the longer chart run.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2014 15:47:35 GMT -5
Unless she pulls a wrecking ball it aint gonna happen. I mean with them locks she could pull it off in a barberella way... I meant on radio. I'm pretty much resigned to her having a #2 peak on the Hot 100. Most likely it will reach #1 on radio by Tuesday as it seems very unlikely that Am I Wrong will pass it that soon. Problem will get one week at #1 (yay for AG's first Radio Songs #1!) |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Jun 27, 2014 17:12:10 GMT -5
How long can Dark Horse last? It already has 26 weeks in the Top 11 alone. What kind of slayage! If this was an inverse points system, it would have a chance beating Happy in the year end charts, but I'm pretty sure by chart points, it probably will be #2 behind Happy. "Top 11" lol you're starting to sound like Charismatic ;) Haha, it's only because Dark Horse has 4 weeks at #11, 22 weeks in Top 10 and 26 weeks in Top 11... |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Jun 27, 2014 17:13:38 GMT -5
How long can Dark Horse last? It already has 26 weeks in the Top 11 alone. What kind of slayage! If this was an inverse points system, it would have a chance beating Happy in the year end charts, but I'm pretty sure by chart points, it probably will be #2 behind Happy.
Both systems have threads dedicated to them:
Prediction for 2014 Year-End of Billboard Hot 100
Hot 100 YTD 2014
So far, Dark Horse is still #1 using both methods. I don't see Happy passing Dark Horse on the inverse point system, but it could using chart points. Yeah, pretty sure Happy has already passed Dark Horse in chart points, since it's 1 million digital copies ahead of Dark Horse. The only way Dark Horse can take it is if it continues to have this radio and streaming longevity it's having. |
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icefire9
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Post by icefire9 on Jun 27, 2014 18:06:01 GMT -5
Yeah, pretty sure Happy has already passed Dark Horse in chart points, since it's 1 million digital copies ahead of Dark Horse. The only way Dark Horse can take it is if it continues to have this radio and streaming longevity it's having. Digital Sales is only 1/3 of the Hot 100. |
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surfy
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Post by surfy on Jun 27, 2014 18:53:05 GMT -5
Yeah, pretty sure Happy has already passed Dark Horse in chart points, since it's 1 million digital copies ahead of Dark Horse. The only way Dark Horse can take it is if it continues to have this radio and streaming longevity it's having. Digital Sales is only 1/3 of the Hot 100. You would think it would be more: Here's how I would do this... 50% digital 30% radio 20% streaming Something like that. How would you guys proportion it? |
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Post by josh on Jun 27, 2014 19:08:08 GMT -5
50% sales, 35% streaming, 15% radio.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2014 20:41:14 GMT -5
Yeah, pretty sure Happy has already passed Dark Horse in chart points, since it's 1 million digital copies ahead of Dark Horse. The only way Dark Horse can take it is if it continues to have this radio and streaming longevity it's having. Didn't you read the "Prediction for 2014 Year-End of Billboard Hot 100" thread? Happy is still behind Dark Horse due to the former not being present on the chart in the first few weeks and it only got 3k more points than Dark Horse this week. It's also just one spot above it. It will fall below DH any week now unless DH starts crashing (which I feel like it should have started doing a while ago) and even if it does pass DH in YTD points, it will likely go back under it soon after. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 27, 2014 20:48:32 GMT -5
Why is the Hot 100 prediction thread being taken as something other than a "prediction".?
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Zeebz
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Post by Zeebz on Jun 27, 2014 22:11:24 GMT -5
I would rank it like 50% Digital, 30% Streaming, 15% Radio, and if I included YouTube at all as a separate entity then 5%. If not then Radio would be 20.
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Duca
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Post by Duca on Jun 28, 2014 6:07:30 GMT -5
1. IGGY AZALEA – Fancy: 184.348 (-3.633)
2. ARIANA GRANDE – Problem f/Iggy Azalea: 181.465 (-1.814)
3. NICO & VINZ – Am I Wrong: 166.597 (+0.981)
4. JOHN LEGEND – All Of Me: 156.249 (-2.576)
5. MAGIC! – Rude: 144.991 (+1.742)
6. CALVIN HARRIS – Summer: 129.663 (-1.824)
7. SAM SMITH – Stay With Me: 113.295 (+3.185)
8. PARAMORE – Ain’t It Fun: 107.469 (-0.251)
9. JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE – Not A Bad Thing: 104.089 (-3.167)
10. KATY PERRY – Dark Horse: 92.311 (-0.773)
11. PHARRELL WILLIAMS – Happy: 91.551 (-1.082)
12. DJ SNAKE & LIL JON – Turn Down For What: 86.815 (-4.003)
13. DISCLOSURE – Latch f/Sam Smith: 85.692 (-1.681)
14. RIXTON – Me And My Broken Heart: 79.440 (-2.042)
15. KATY PERRY – Birthday: 77.513 (-1.600)
16. BLAKE SHELTON – My Eyes: 70.216 (+0.588) ▲
17. ED SHEERAN – Sing: 69.683 (-2.570) ▼
18. BASTILLE – Pompeii: 69.046 (-0.945) ▼
19. JAKE OWEN – Beachin’: 67.810 (+0.615)
20. ONEREPUBLIC – Counting Stars: 62.760 (-1.171)
ONEREPUBLIC – Love Runs Out: 62.191 (+1.189)
CHRIS YOUNG – Who I Am With You: 61.955 (+0.756)
TYLER FARR – Whiskey In My Water: 60.857 (+0.754)
MKTO – Classic: 59.968 (+0.802)
JASON DERULO – Wiggle f/Snoop Dogg: 59.253 (-0.862)
MAROON 5 – Maps: 57.788 (+2.435)
LIL WAYNE – Believe Me f/Drake: 42.251 (+0.705)
KONGOS – Come With Me Now: 40.926 (+0.557)
LADY ANTEBELLUM – Bartender: 33.815 (+0.731)
PHARRELL WILLIAMS – Come Get It Bae: 33.514 (+0.220)
LORDE – Tennis Court: 28.567 (+0.515)
NICKI MINAJ – Pills N Potions: 24.705 (-0.103)
JENNIFER LOPEZ – First Love: 24.290 (+0.428)
DEMI LOVATO – Really Don’t Care f/Cher Lloyd: 24.150 (+0.647)
ENRIQUE IGLESIAS – Bailando f/D.Bueno/S.Paul/GDZ: 22.688 (-0.428)
M. LAMBERT & C. UNDERWOOD – Somethin’ Bad: 22.652 (+0.286)
KENNY CHESNEY – American Kids: 21.850
COLDPLAY – A Sky Full Of Stars: 19.517 (+0.521)
SIA – Chandelier: 18.558 (-0.097)
JEREMIH – Don’t Tell ‘Em f/YG: 17.072
CHARLI XCX – Boom Clap: 15.652 (+1.009)
CLEAN BANDIT – Rather Be f/Jess Glynne: 11.402 (+0.578)
NE-YO – Money Can’t Buy f/Jeezy: 10.766 (+0.119)
LITTLE BIG TOWN – Day Drinking: 8.866 (+0.126)
T.I. – No Mediocre f/Iggy Azalea: 7.841 (+0.548)
BEYONCE – Pretty Hurts: 4.815 (+0.079)
IGGY AZALEA – Black Widow f/Rita Ora: 4.475 (+0.956)
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 28, 2014 6:17:50 GMT -5
Fourth-of-July programming must have kicked in.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2014 6:27:54 GMT -5
Fourth-of-July programming must have kicked in. I know right, even Counting Stars is taking a huge drop! IGGY AZALEA – Black Widow f/Rita Ora: 3.519 (+ 1.093) Yesss, DH part 2! It is WAY too early to call that, I mean WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too early. |
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Jun 28, 2014 8:27:38 GMT -5
4th of July? That's a week away!
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Linnethia Monique
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Post by Linnethia Monique on Jun 28, 2014 8:30:54 GMT -5
Fourth-of-July programming must have kicked in. I know right, even Counting Stars is taking a huge drop! IGGY AZALEA – Black Widow f/Rita Ora: 3.519 (+ 1.093) Yesss, DH part 2! It is WAY too early to call that, I mean WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too early. I believe the DH 2 comment was more towards the sound of the song. It's basically its sibling. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2014 8:31:47 GMT -5
I know right, even Counting Stars is taking a huge drop! It is WAY too early to call that, I mean WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY too early. I believe the DH 2 comment was more towards the sound of the song. It's basically its sibling. oh, oops. I was going to say.... Lol. Edit: why does gonna sound much better in that sentance?[br ]F U grammar. |
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jun 28, 2014 8:43:12 GMT -5
4th of July? That's a week away! But grilling supplies are being purchased now. |
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85la
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Post by 85la on Jun 28, 2014 15:47:31 GMT -5
It's surprising how DH's airplay has held so well given that it hasn't had as much urban or AC support as Happy. It seems that at some point DH must start to drop more quickly, which is why I think Happy has the edge. For the same reasoning, I suspect All of Me might also beat DH on the year-end Hot 100, but I don't know what its sales total is. Does anyone have the sales #'s to date for all three songs?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2014 16:02:31 GMT -5
It's surprising how DH's airplay has held so well given that it hasn't had as much urban or AC support as Happy. It seems that at some point DH must start to drop more quickly, which is why I think Happy has the edge. For the same reasoning, I suspect All of Me might also beat DH on the year-end Hot 100, but I don't know what its sales total is. Does anyone have the sales #'s to date for all three songs? LOL I'm not so sure even Happy will beat it year end, let alone All of Me. Happy is behind DH in total year-to-date chart points as of this week because it debuted much later. And it's barely ahead on this week's chart so it may not even pass it in YTD points before it falls below it on the weekly Hot 100 points and if it does it will probably fall back below it in YTD points. I really hope I'm wrong though and Happy ends up on top in the year-end chart. |
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slw84
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Post by slw84 on Jun 28, 2014 17:20:32 GMT -5
4th of July? That's a week away! But grilling supplies are being purchased now. But where's is the exponential increase for 'Firework' |
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HolidayGuy
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Post by HolidayGuy on Jun 28, 2014 21:00:06 GMT -5
Ohhh- not sure why I thought this weekend was Fourth of July.  |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Jun 28, 2014 21:40:29 GMT -5
It's surprising how DH's airplay has held so well given that it hasn't had as much urban or AC support as Happy. It seems that at some point DH must start to drop more quickly, which is why I think Happy has the edge. For the same reasoning, I suspect All of Me might also beat DH on the year-end Hot 100, but I don't know what its sales total is. Does anyone have the sales #'s to date for all three songs? LOL I'm not so sure even Happy will beat it year end, let alone All of Me. Happy is behind DH in total year-to-date chart points as of this week because it debuted much later. And it's barely ahead on this week's chart so it may not even pass it in YTD points before it falls below it on the weekly Hot 100 points and if it does it will probably fall back below it in YTD points. I really hope I'm wrong though and Happy ends up on top in the year-end chart. It's not because it debuted "much" later. Those extra weeks you're talking about is when Dark Horse was just beginning it's climb, it didn't even break into the top 20 until the first week of 2014, and Happy debuted a week later. It's not like Happy debuted in April or something, it debuted extremely early in the year. Unless it manages to get 40+ weeks, it debuting in January will not be the reason why it's behind in total year to date chart points. |
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brady47
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Post by brady47 on Jun 28, 2014 21:42:26 GMT -5
It's surprising how DH's airplay has held so well given that it hasn't had as much urban or AC support as Happy. It seems that at some point DH must start to drop more quickly, which is why I think Happy has the edge. For the same reasoning, I suspect All of Me might also beat DH on the year-end Hot 100, but I don't know what its sales total is. Does anyone have the sales #'s to date for all three songs? Yeah, I have a feeling Dark Horse is going to tumble eventually (like 5-10 positions per week until it drops out) kind of like E.T dropping out of the chart 8 weeks after leaving the top 10. |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 28, 2014 22:20:18 GMT -5
Despite the prediction threads being hailed as the real thing, no one knows for sure what the gap between #1 and #2 is or even what song is #1. The prediction threads are simply predictions. The prediction threads is a reason to believe Dark Horse is #1, there is also reason to believe that Happy has #1 on lock already.
The climb of Dark Horse or its descent won't make or break things in my opinion, but it is fun to speculate.
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jdanton2
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Post by jdanton2 on Jun 29, 2014 6:37:06 GMT -5
Happy is still selling twice as much as Dark Horse.
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