Album Sales Comparison

[Deleted]

This didn't seem to fit in any other thread so I thought I would start a new one.

Lately I've been thinking how impressive it is that some artists who get no airplay can sell fairly well. For example, I've had Sturgill Simpson's albums on repeat for the last few days. His first album, 2013's High Top Mountain, has sold about 15,000 to 20,000 copies. But last year's Metamodern Sounds In Country Music has now reached 100,000 sold...with virtually no airplay.

So I decided to look at new artists (as well as a few mid-tier stars) to see how their most recent albums have sold, and then we can compare them to each other. I dug up as many sales numbers as I could and the estimates should all be fairly accurate, within 5,000 copies one way or the other (if you don't trust me you can dig them up yourself!) Of course some of the albums have produced more radio hits than others so keep that in mind. Anyway, here's what I came up with...pretty much all of these albums were released over the last 2 years:

1) Kacey Musgraves' Same Trailer Different Park - released March 19, 2013 / between 480,000 and 500,000 in sales

2) Cole Swindell's Cole Swindell - released February 18, 2014 / 325,000

3) Sam Hunt's Montevallo - released October 27, 2014 / 305,000

4) Scotty McCreery's See You Tonight - released October 15, 2013 / 270,000

5) Thomas Rhett's It Goes Like This - released October 29, 2013 / 240,000

6) Chris Young's A.M. - released September 17, 2013 / 240,000

7) Randy Houser's How Country Feels - released January 22, 2013 / 230,000

8) Jake Owen's Days Of Gold - released December 3, 2013 / 225,000

9) Cassadee Pope's Frame By Frame - released October 8, 2013 / 190,000

10) Hunter Hayes' Storyline - released May 6, 2014 / 180,000

11) Tyler Farr's Redneck Crazy - released September 30, 2013 / 175,000

12) Chase Rice's Ignite The Night - released August 19, 2014 / 170,000

13) Lee Brice's I Don't Dance - released September 9, 2014 / 160,000

14) Brett Eldredge's Bring You Back - released August 6, 2013 / 160,000

15) Danielle Bradbery's Danielle Bradbery - released November 25, 2013 / 150,000

16) Jana Kramer's Jana Kramer - released June 5, 2012 / 130,000

17) Dan + Shay's Where It All Began - released April 1, 2014 / 110,000

18) Sturgill Simpson's Metamodern Sounds In Country Music - released May 13, 2014 / 100,000

19) Eli Young Band's 10,000 Towns - released March 4, 2014 / 100,000

20) Dustin Lynch's Where It's At - released September 9, 2014 / 95,000

21) Parmalee's Feels Like Carolina - released December 10, 2013 / 95,000

22) Frankie Ballard's Sunshine & Whiskey - released February 11, 2014 / 75,000

23) Jon Pardi's Write You A Song - released January 14, 2014 / 72,000

24) David Nail's I'm A Fire - released March 4, 2014 / 70,000

25) Jerrod Niemann's High Noon - released March 25, 2014 / 65,000

26) Eric Paslay's Eric Paslay - released February 4, 2014 / 55,000

27) Kellie Pickler's The Woman I Am - released November 11, 2013 / 55,000

28) Brandy Clark's 12 Stories - released October 22, 2013 / 40,000

29) Charlie Worsham's Rubberband - released August 20, 2013 / 35,000

30) The Swon Brothers' The Swon Brothers - released October 14, 2014 / 32,000

Some of my thoughts:

I feel like Cole Swindell, Thomas Rhett, and Randy Houser have been some of the obvious winners over the last couple of years. Obviously Kacey's sales were phenomenal; her album is no longer selling all that much anymore (which makes sense because they're done with singles from it) but I'll bet she trickles past 500k sold when her sophomore album is released. Sam Hunt's album is selling a bunch yet (over 60,000 sold in the last 4 weeks) so he'll easily cross Gold and could even go Platinum if he scores 2 more big hits after "Take Your Time" (and if anything crosses over to other formats, that'll push his sales more as well).

Hunter Hayes went from selling 1 million+ with his debut album to not even cracking 200k. His lack of success at radio certainly was a big part of that. Scotty McCreery's sophomore album sold fairly well all things considered. He had a bit more radio success than he did with his debut album, but of course his debut sold much better because he was just off Idol at the time. Still, almost 300k for See You Tonight is pretty good, especially since it only produced 2 singles (both top 10's).

Lee Brice's I Don't Dance is off to a much slower start than his Hard 2 Love album.

Sturgill Simpson has sold more than Eli Young Band, Parmalee, Frankie Ballard, Jon Pardi, David Nail, Jerrod Niemann, and Eric Paslay. And all of their albums produced at least 1 radio #1 hit, with the exception of Jon Pardi's album (the highest-charting single from Pardi's album peaked at #11). Eli Young Band had a big Gold #1 hit and a top 15 follow-up, Parmalee's album produced a Gold #1 and another Top 5, Frankie Ballard's album produced a pair of #1 hits and the 3rd single is top 40 and climbing, David Nail's album produced a Platinum #1 hit and a top 20 follow-up, Jerrod Niemann scored a Platinum #1 with "Drink To That All Night", and Eric Paslay's "Friday Night" went #1 on Mediabase and is certified Gold as well. Then "Song About A Girl" went to #12 and "She Don't Love You" is almost top 20.

And radio doesn't play Sturgill, or Brandy Clark or Kellie Pickler for that matter. When you consider release dates and radio success (or lack thereof), Kacey Musgraves, Sam Hunt, and Sturgill Simpson have all sold incredibly well. Eli Young Band, Frankie Ballard, Parmalee, David Nail, Jerrod Niemann, Eric Paslay, and The Swon Brothers all sold (or are selling) poorly.

[tonyei31]

Not surprised at all with Sturgill's numbers. Americana fans are so loyal and the fact that his music doesn't have a place on radio (based on the way the labels promote, etc.) the only outlet for fans of his is to buy the album.

With radio you have casual fans that can buy a single here and there based on hearing it. They often will not follow through on the album purchase. It's different for guys like Simpson and Brandy Clark.

I know he isn't country either but I would venture to say Jason Isbell would rank high on that list based on his loyalty of followers. I also believe BlackBerry Smoke would rank higher than some of the names on that list.

[tim]

Thanks for doing that jhomes87. That was a great in-depth list. It'll be interesting to see what Sturgill's third album does...I'm not ready to make any projections but I have a feeling it's going to do very well. I'm not expecting country radio to all of a sudden play him, but what exactly does country music radio and the country music award shows do with someone like Sturgill? It would be a huge shame for him not to get recognition in the next couple of years (assuming he continues to put out the same quality music he has with the previous two).

[gardyfan]

Do you have the numbers for Jamey Johnson's last two or three albums?

[43dudleyvillas]

Terrific job with the list, jhomes87, and a great topic for discussion.

For one thing, I think it is noteworthy that Kacey Musgraves tops the album sales list for now (Sam Hunt will likely pass her, in no small part due to more support from country radio, but also his music is simply more commercial). Her radio fortunes were the direct result of country radio actively choosing a target demo that wasn't interested in her music over the demographic that was.

Sam Hunt aside, I think the airplay-album sales translation looks weak across the board for new artists/artists on their sophomore albums. To illustrate that point: Kacey's Same Trailer, Different Park had sold 285,000 through the end of 2013, and sold anywhere between 195,000 and 215,000 copies in 2014, when it didn't have a top-30 single. 41-43% of that album's sales came in 2014 despite no top-30 single, and we're talking about an album that was already out nearly nine months by the time 2014 began. That 195-215,000 total for 2014 would put her ahead of the total sales for the current albums from Lee Brice, Tyler Farr, Chase Rice, Brett Eldredge, and more, and they have all benefited from at least one top-five hit apiece (all but Rice have had at least a Mediabase #1 hit plus a top-10 follow up at minimum).

Cassadee Pope and Danielle Bradbery's placement on the album sales list clearly benefited from their exposure on The Voice. And I think that enough of Scotty McCreery's American Idol fanbase stuck around to make an impact on his album sales this time around, even if he suffered a steep dropoff from the sales of his debut album. It's an interesting question...how much of the sales of the albums of three artists came from airplay and how much from a fanbase built from TV? Perhaps one way to look at it would be to look at the kind of legs their respective albums had.

Labels generally like to wait until a lead single hits the top-20 before releasing the album, so I think it's safe to think of that as the point when labels seem to think the single will have built up enough exposure to sell an album. In Scotty McCreery's case, though, his album came out in mid-October 2013, but the lead single didn't hit the top-20 until the very end of the year. The 6 January 2014 Aircheck chart is the first to show "See You Tonight" in the top-20. Now the 6 January 2014 Billboard Country Update put sales of See You Tonight (the album) at 178,000 at that point (which included the 2013 holiday season shopping season). So, basically, See You Tonight the album sold an additional 92,000 copies while the lead single climbed from the top-20 to its top-10 peak and while "Feelin' It" climbed to a top-10 peak (including the 2014 holiday season).

Cassadee Pope's Frame By Frame was released 8 October 2013, when her lead single, "Wasting All These Tears" was at #24 on the Aircheck chart. The single would hit top-20 on the 28 October 2013 chart, at which point the album had sold 69,000 copies. Frame By Frame sold 141,000 copies through the end of 2013, which included both the holiday season shopping period and the single's climb toward a top-10 peak (which it achieved in early January 2014). So the album sold 49,000 copies in 2014 (during which Cassadee released another single that didn't crack the top-30), and 121,000 copies since her only top-20 hit hit the top-20.

Danielle Bradbery's self-titled album was released 19 November 2013, when her lead single, "The Heart of Dixie" was at #24 on the Aircheck chart. The single would hit #20 on the 16 December 2013 Aircheck chart, at which point the album had sold 68,000 copies. An additional two weeks of holiday shopping would put the album at 97,000 copies sold (according to Roughstock), which means Danielle's album sold 53,000 copies in 2014, and 82,000 copies since her only top-20 hit hit the top-20.

Looking at the above, 35% of the total sales of See You Tonight and of Danielle Bradbery's self-titled debut came in 2014. 26% of Frame By Frame's sales came in 2014. Of the three, Cassadee had top-10 airplay exposure through early January and spent the rest of the year without a top-30 single, Danielle had top-15 airplay exposure through the middle of February and spent the rest of the year without a top-40 single, and Scotty had top-10 airplay exposure through mid-March and then a long climb for the next single that culminated in a top-10 peak in December. I think that his weak airplay to album sales translation in 2014 goes a long way in explaining why there were only two singles from that album.

It's not that any fans these three bring to the table from their TV exposure don't count -- I just think it's important and interesting to consider where the sales for these artists are coming from, and I think non-radio sources of fanbases are especially noteworthy. The album sales for Kacey Musgraves and Sturgill Simpson show them reaching country fans outside of country radio, and converting those reaches to album sales at a better rate than many receiving considerable airplay support from country radio. Scotty McCreery seems to have retained a core fanbase from his Idol days that continues to be responsible for a significant chunk of his album sales, and both Cassadee Pope and Danielle Bradbery will no doubt hope to do the same.

Cole Swindell probably benefited from a built-in fanbase via his exposure on Luke Bryan's tours, so his challenge will be to sustain that interest if he can't depend on one of the Georgia boys to take him on tour. But maybe he can depend on that. Not that I think the sales of any of the new artists in question is impressive, but I can't help but wonder if the touring exposure with head bros in charge Jason Aldean/Luke Bryan/Florida-Georgia Line has been the (slight) difference maker for the likes of Cole Swindell, Thomas Rhett and Tyler Farr vis a vis the considerably less bro Brett Eldredge, David Nail and Eric Paslay. Eldredge's sales in particular look pretty poor considering the fact that he has had two #1 hits and now a third top-10 hit in addition to a CMA win for New Artist of the Year. I've assumed that as bro country's pole position in the country market starts to recede, an artist like Brett would be better-positioned than Swindell/Rhett/Farr to establish himself, but the list certainly suggests that he has some work to do. All of the people listed do, really.

[someguy]

That's a very interesting list. Thanks jhomes87 for taking the time to compile it. I think it's interesting to note the major discrepency in some cases between airplay and sales. Someone like Frankie Ballard, with two big airplay #1s, not being able to break 100K in album sales says a lot (and that's nothing against him...his is one of only 6 of those that I own).

Kacey Musgraves and Sam Hunt seem to be the major winners here. Kacey, in that she only had one real airplay hit, and she's outsold everyone here (and some other A-listers who are too established to be on this last), and Sam in that his album is still fairly new, and will likely sell around a million when all is said and done.

Hunter Hayes' sales are a huge dropoff, but then again, so is the airplay that he has received from album #1 to album #2, so I guess it shouldn't be surprising. The most surprising to me when looking at this list was Cassadee Pope...I'm surprised that her album outsold a lot of albums with much bigger airplay hits. I know that being from a reality show gives a slight advantage, but I was surprised to see her outsell people like Tyler Farr and Brett Eldredge.

[trebor]

Great list. Thanks for the effort J.
100K for Sturgill Simpson is amazing. Congrats!

[Daryl the Beryl]

Glad at Sturgill Simpson's sales. Word-of-mouth must be helping him.

[kml567]

Keep in mind Sturgill Simpson had a heavy discount on Amazon at 5.99 for nearly 2 months during the busy holiday season (Nov-Dec 2014).

Chase Rice is now doing something similar on iTunes for over a month now.

It's a great way for artists to get nice album sales. Good for fans obviously, but also good for new artists to get buzz for selling well.