Billboard Hot 100 : 04/18/2015 - "Uptown Funk!" 14th week

[allow that]

Apr 8, 2015 4:14:57 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Candy Shop is definitely remembered. The people who think it's forgotten probably never liked it in the first place and have done thier best in the past 10 years to ignore/avoid it. If you go clubbing a few times a week you'll still hear it regularly.

Agreed. I would say it's forgotten by radio since it doesn't fit in at all with Urban or Rhythmic trends of today. It's definitely remembered in pop culture though (and the occasional club spin).

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2015 9:26:06 GMT -5 dajross6 said:

I would love someone that actually has knowledge of the formula to project what week 15 is looking like. SYA has a huge sales lead (maybe 3-1 or 4-1), UF has a 21-1 lead in airplay, and who knows on streaming. Reading this thread is a headache with people hoping, wishing, and trolling without seeing much of the evidence/facts most of us come to love reading about on a weekly basis. Thanks to those that try to predict using facts instead of people trying to find a way to knock off a #1 song via viral videos (maybe one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this forum btw).

Personally I'd rather watch the chart due to trends and factual evidence than coming to the forum yelling about a song trying to knock of their favorite artist from the '90s or giving 'dark green' updates. Everyone take a step back and breathe deeply.

Luckily that zombie guy got banned it was kinda amusing to watch at first but I wouldn't have been able to bear much more of it.
UF probably has about a 3-1 lead in streaming unless there's a video generating many views where it counts towards the Hot 109 (i.e. not Facebook). Spotify is the source of probably 95% of SYA's streams. Like I said, without the help of streaming and , SYA will need to sell more than 450k in order to have a chance at #1 on the Hot 100. I don't know if it's going to pull it off. It would have to maintain its current selling streak for the rest of the week and not start falling in order for that to happen.

[allow that]

Apr 8, 2015 9:26:44 GMT -5 #LisaRinna said:

The "See You Again" video went from 665k to 3.4 million views on YouTube overnight.

Yeah, if that keeps up it'll definitely push the song much closer to a guaranteed #1 placement.

Meanwhile, "Uptown Funk" just posted its very first (I think?) audience loss of over 2 million on the most recent daily update. "See You Again" only gained about 200k in audience, but it was Most Added at Pop radio yesterday so I'd expect 1 million+ updates by the end of the week.

I reallyyyy hope it's not going to be another 10+ week #1.

[crystalphnx]

Apr 8, 2015 9:26:06 GMT -5 dajross6 said:

I would love someone that actually has knowledge of the formula to project what week 15 is looking like. SYA has a huge sales lead (maybe 3-1 or 4-1), UF has a 21-1 lead in airplay, and who knows on streaming. Reading this thread is a headache with people hoping, wishing, and trolling without seeing much of the evidence/facts most of us come to love reading about on a weekly basis. Thanks to those that try to predict using facts instead of people trying to find a way to knock off a #1 song via viral videos (maybe one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this forum btw).

Personally I'd rather watch the chart due to trends and factual evidence than coming to the forum yelling about a song trying to knock of their favorite artist from the '90s or giving 'dark green' updates. Everyone take a step back and breathe deeply.

I hear you, but without an true insider here, we don't have the numbers to make the type of predictions you're looking for:

Streaming = Even if someone was tracking YouTube views every day, we have no way of knowing how many of those views are from the US. We also still don't have a total grasp on which sites/types of videos submit their data to Billboard for inclusion.

Airplay = We don't have access to the Nielsen numbers, so we use what we have available.

Sales = We don't have access to any kind of building sales chart, so Kworb is our best option. Kworb quantifies the iTunes Popularity Bars and shows us how well each song is selling in relation to the current No. 1.

So it's not just about "not understanding the formula" - we simply don't have the raw data to plug into said formula to make the most accurate possible predictions.

[allow that]

I've always wondered personally if anyone roughly knows the ratio for how much Spotify counts vs. YouTube streams (and I guess vs. passive streaming sites like Pandora or Grooveshark)?

[Deleted]

In the year-end prediction thread someone suggested that sales/10 + streaming/750 + airplay audience/7500 worked every week so far this year.

[Daniel Collins]

There are no Spotify updates for about 3 weeks now :'(

Prediction:
1 Uptown Funk! (30% lead)
2 Sugar
3 Love Me Like You Do
4 Thinking Out Loud
5 Earned It (Fifty Shades Of Grey)
6 Trap Queen
7 Style
8 G.D.F.R.
9 Somebody
10 Shut Up + Dance

11 FourFiveSeconds
12 Want to Want Me
13 Time Of Our Lives
14 One Last Time
15 Chains
16 Blank Space
17 Lay Me Down
18 Take Me To Church
19 Truffle Butter
20 Bitch Better Have My Money

[Gary]

If this were week 4 for Uptown Funk instead of week 14, I wonder if some people would be looking at the next #1 song by now instead of continuing to plot the course to week 17. Wishful thinking about a new record seems to be making the judgments here a little less objective.

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2015 5:44:23 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Apr 8, 2015 4:14:57 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Candy Shop is definitely remembered. The people who think it's forgotten probably never liked it in the first place and have done thier best in the past 10 years to ignore/avoid it. If you go clubbing a few times a week you'll still hear it regularly.

Exactly.. there's a difference between "forgotten" song and "a song I didn't like"

lol, I did like it well enough, at the time. And then once its run was over I promptly stopped thinking about it. FWIW I am biased because "In Da Club" is the 50 song I always heard when I would go out, and still hear now sometimes in various places; "Candy Shop" didn't really stick around as long in my experience, but that could be locational.

"Barely remembered" =/= "forgotten" as well. There's also a difference between "Yeah, I remember this song if you play it for me" and "I totally remember this song and don't need anyone to mention it for me to think about it and want to play it myself." It's one of 50's bigger hits - not surprising as it was his third and final #1 - but I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a 'classic.' And in that sense it really is a lot like OSD - huge hit for the time and I would certainly not agree with anyone who calls it completely 'forgotten,' but I'm not going to sit here and vouch for its longevity either.

[Deleted]

Yeah CS isn't forgotten IMO (why else would radio still play it from time to time?) but it's just that 50 is better known for In Da Club so when people think of him they usually think of IDC at first rather than CS.

[ry4n]

The forgotten 50 Cent #1 is the one that no one has mentioned: "21 Questions".

[allow that]

Apr 8, 2015 10:14:09 GMT -5 ry4n said:

The forgotten 50 Cent #1 is the one that no one has mentioned: "21 Questions".

That one actually does get occasional Urban airplay in NYC though. For Urban fans, it's far less forgotten than "Candy Shop" imo.

[areyoureadytojump]

Apr 8, 2015 8:43:57 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Yes, we miss bks.

What bks used to do for us can be seen here:

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/92997/billboard-hot-100-01-2010?page=3

[wavey.]

bks has been keeping a low profile :(

[Deleted]

Apr 8, 2015 10:20:40 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

Apr 8, 2015 8:43:57 GMT -5 The Upper Hand said:

Yes, we miss bks.

What bks used to do for us can be seen here:

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/92997/billboard-hot-100-01-2010?page=3

Lol at Boom Boom Pow still being top 40 on Digital Songs in the beginning of 2010

[crystalphnx]

If you were listening to the radio and/or following the charts in 2005, you probably know "Candy Shop" (though I'd be surprised if it was the first song that popped to mind if someone asked you to name one of 50 Cent's hits.) If you were born around 2000, and aren't a 50 Cent fan, it's probably a different story.

Just like the OSD situation: you're likely to get very different answers from someone who was old enough to be aware of a song at the height of its popularity than from someone who wasn't even born yet - unless the song becomes a truly enduring classic ("Stop! In The Name Of Love" comes to mind, but there's other iconic 60's hits, of course) or sees a contemporary resurgence due to pop culture usage (a la DSB.)

[popstop]

Apr 8, 2015 10:25:37 GMT -5 wavey. said:

bks has been keeping a low profile :(

The one person I suggested for last year's Pulse 100. :'(

Anyhow, I wonder if this isn't the last time we will be talking about a potential record-breaking streak at #1. Streaming seems to have lengthened chart runs considerably, and I don't think it's any coincidence that two of the longest stays in the top two are just over the last six months or so. The chart runs seem to be a return to mid 90s. 

[Deleted]

So how much do we predict SYA will sell this week?

[forg]

i miss bks too and all the charts and sales figures he would share before

[jayhawk1117]

Apr 8, 2015 10:51:41 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

So how much do we predict SYA will sell this week?

390-425k

[Libra]

Apr 8, 2015 9:33:20 GMT -5 allow that said:

I reallyyyy hope it's not going to be another 10+ week #1.

I'd place the odds of that happening at...somewhere in the realm of astronomical?

No way is it going to be able to sustain the level of power needed over a prolonged period. Only way it sees even 10 weeks is if it later marches back and then stays for a while.

My guess is...it'll reach the top here, stay for like 1-3 weeks, then start trickling down the Top 10. We'll see if radio gives it the cushion it'll need in order to keep from free-falling itself.

[allow that]

Apr 8, 2015 11:37:06 GMT -5 Libra said:

Apr 8, 2015 9:33:20 GMT -5 allow that said:

I reallyyyy hope it's not going to be another 10+ week #1.

I'd place the odds of that happening at...somewhere in the realm of astronomical?

No way is it going to be able to sustain the level of power needed over a prolonged period. Only it sees even 10 weeks is if it later marches back and then stays for a while.

My guess is...it'll reach the top here, stay for like 1-3 weeks, then start trickling down the Top 10. We'll see if radio gives it the cushion it'll need in order to keep from free-falling itself.

How often do we get one week #1's anymore?

Radio WILL cushion this. It's got all of the ingredients of a massive hit: universal theme, multi-format appeal, tween tweet quote-ready lyrics, a celebrity tie in, etc. It's not going to fall away as fast as you think, and the fact that it's so huge out of the gate means it's got nothing but time to shine ahead of it.

[crystalphnx]

"When I Was Your Man" was the last 1-week No. 1 in April 2013.
"Roar" was the last 2-week No. 1 in September 2013 - everything since has gotten 3+ total weeks.

[Libra]

Apr 8, 2015 11:39:28 GMT -5 allow that said:

Apr 8, 2015 11:37:06 GMT -5 Libra said:

I'd place the odds of that happening at...somewhere in the realm of astronomical?

No way is it going to be able to sustain the level of power needed over a prolonged period. Only it sees even 10 weeks is if it later marches back and then stays for a while.

My guess is...it'll reach the top here, stay for like 1-3 weeks, then start trickling down the Top 10. We'll see if radio gives it the cushion it'll need in order to keep from free-falling itself.

How often do we get one week #1's anymore?

Radio WILL cushion this. It's got all of the ingredients of a massive hit: universal theme, multi-format appeal, tween tweet quote-ready lyrics, a celebrity tie in, etc. It's not going to fall away as fast as you think, and the fact that it's so huge out of the gate means it's got nothing but time to shine ahead of it.

Oh, I do think it can and will stay in the Top 10 the whole time. But let's be real, it needs the massive sales balloon to even contend for #1 now. Once that deflates...will radio and streaming gains be able to cover the difference right away? Or, instead, will it not deflate so much so soon?

[allow that]

"Uptown Funk" is now down to #6 on iTunes with .2466 of "See You Again."

If we were to pretend that the Wiz song didn't exist, "Uptown Funk" would be at .8331 of "Shut Up And Dance" which is the current #2.

[Deleted]

Sugar is #2 at 30% of SYA

Last update (multiple versions combined)

1. SYA (1.0000)
2. Sugar (0.3000)
3. SUAD (0.2960)
4. GDFR (~0.2900)
5. UF (~0.2750)

[ss8]

I actually clearly remember when Hollaback Girl by Gwen got 100k+ in digital sales in 2005 and that was a record lol and a VERY big deal. Damn, crazy how clearly I remember that and it's now exactly 10 yrs ago. I believe right around that point was when the official age/true impact of iTunes/digital etc...started.

Anyways, based on...basically everything going 'wrong' for UF, dunno how one is truly expecting the song to be #1 next week or even top 2 the week after. As I've said, Sugar has actually grown a bit overall this week across the board while unfortunately that's been the opposite w/ UF. Dunno what 'abruptly' makes a song fall off a cliff but whether it's coincidence or not, since SYA came along, UF hasn't even been semi competitive. Whether or not SYA came into the mix, UF clearly peaked. Otherwise there wouldn't be more than a few songs (so far) passing it in sales etc..and it's still only Wed! 4 1/2 full tracking days left! I'm still beyond amazed at how just 4 days ago there was absolutely nothing in sight or hints of anything being a threat to UF.

As much as some dont wanna hear it, SYA is def. one of those songs that 'may' be as big/ in the ballpark as UF! Looks at its sales and streaming and its FIRST only getting started on radio lol. That def. wasn't the case w/ BL or UF. The had at least some decent airplay. Point is, SYA has a major head start (all w/out major airplay and streams yet). Don't wanna go there yet (far as records etc..), but it's the kind of song in every multi-format that can be yet another monster.

[Enigma.]

Apr 8, 2015 9:54:21 GMT -5 @antigonerising said:

Apr 8, 2015 5:44:23 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Exactly.. there's a difference between "forgotten" song and "a song I didn't like"

lol, I did like it well enough, at the time. And then once its run was over I promptly stopped thinking about it. FWIW I am biased because "In Da Club" is the 50 song I always heard when I would go out, and still hear now sometimes in various places; "Candy Shop" didn't really stick around as long in my experience, but that could be locational.

"Barely remembered" =/= "forgotten" as well. There's also a difference between "Yeah, I remember this song if you play it for me" and "I totally remember this song and don't need anyone to mention it for me to think about it and want to play it myself." It's one of 50's bigger hits - not surprising as it was his third and final #1 - but I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a 'classic.' And in that sense it really is a lot like OSD - huge hit for the time and I would certainly not agree with anyone who calls it completely 'forgotten,' but I'm not going to sit here and vouch for its longevity either.

If one plays a random song to a random person and asks if he/she remembers it..If the answer is no, then it's probably forgotten. Candy Shop is in no danger to belong in that category I'd say

[dajross6]

But I think that's the point some are trying to make. Without radio on board (yet), the song can't become a long running #1 unless it holds on for maybe another 6-7 weeks of sales. Songs like SYA are a little unfortunate in that it has a chance at #1 solely based on one component. I'm guessing it's going to be a big song, but I could see a chart run going something like ...1-2-3-3-2-1-1-1-1... Just an example of sales/streaming trying to hold the song up while radio catches up. I'm not even sure a song has ever done that, but I think it's a good guess based on the data we have.

[ss8]

Apr 8, 2015 11:39:28 GMT -5 allow that said:

Apr 8, 2015 11:37:06 GMT -5 Libra said:

I'd place the odds of that happening at...somewhere in the realm of astronomical?

No way is it going to be able to sustain the level of power needed over a prolonged period. Only it sees even 10 weeks is if it later marches back and then stays for a while.

My guess is...it'll reach the top here, stay for like 1-3 weeks, then start trickling down the Top 10. We'll see if radio gives it the cushion it'll need in order to keep from free-falling itself.

How often do we get one week #1's anymore?

Radio WILL cushion this. It's got all of the ingredients of a massive hit: universal theme, multi-format appeal, tween tweet quote-ready lyrics, a celebrity tie in, etc. It's not going to fall away as fast as you think, and the fact that it's so huge out of the gate means it's got nothing but time to shine ahead of it.

Spot on. I'm totally w/ you (look at my last post) and dont see based on what it's doing after just a a few days! how radio (talking *multi format radio) which always= mega/ massive #1 is gonna not eat this up. It's every bit along the same lines as a OSD, I'll Always Love You etc..All depressing, sad, but catchy and melodic songs that the public and radio gobble up. Granted, some of the rapping etc..may need to be toned down, edited or whatever for AC, yet more and more I'm hearing more HOT AC AND AC stations play very r&b/urban sounding songs. Thing is, this songs sound, lyrics, melody, production are def. multi format friendly even w/ the rapping! lol