Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Apr 9, 2015 13:33:34 GMT -5
I must make a viral video with UF played on background
I'm going skateboarding for the first time ever tomorrow, must record it.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 9, 2015 13:37:24 GMT -5
I like the title of the thread "See You Again Uptown Funk!"
That implies we are waving goodbye to Uptown Funk
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 13:43:42 GMT -5
Geez, the airplay for SYA is practically non-existent. I would think that radio would be on it more with these kinds of sales. At any rate, such low airplay makes it very hard to call SYA any kind of done deal for #1. What is the last Hot 100 #1 with such low airplay? Harlem Shake?
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 13:47:56 GMT -5
I'd like for Billboard to chime in with a SYA sales forecast today. It's the fifth sales day, they should have a good idea of what it will be for the week.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 9, 2015 13:48:46 GMT -5
I like the title of the thread "See You Again Uptown Funk!" That implies we are waving goodbye to Uptown Funk Or that we will see a 15th week! Or we will See You Again in year end countdown shows ;) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 13:49:38 GMT -5
Or that we will see a 15th week! Or we will See You Again in year end countdown shows ;) Or that we'll see it again in the top 10 for a couple more months  |
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 13:51:21 GMT -5
Can anyone gauge the streaming gaps between the two? That's the part I'm so bad at predicting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 13:52:16 GMT -5
Can anyone gauge the streaming gaps between the two? That's the part I'm so bad at predicting. I predict 5-6 million lead in streaming for UF. |
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JamaicaFunk²
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Post by JamaicaFunk² on Apr 9, 2015 13:59:29 GMT -5
I'd like for Billboard to chime in with a SYA sales forecast today. It's the fifth sales day, they should have a good idea of what it will be for the week. Sales run Monday-Sunday. So tomorrow will be the fifth day. We are at about halfway through sales week right now. |
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Apr 9, 2015 14:01:51 GMT -5
Did you remember when I predicted an 80% of probability of UF being at #1 for a 15th week? Well... Now I predict about 10%, sorry. Even with a (very) low airplay SYA would have enough sales to beat UF, considering a high streaming (not better than UF but helping to the puntuation of SYA).
I didn't wanted UF staying #1 when it had 5-9 weeks but now I want it to tie-break the record, with luck it could go back at #1 the following week if SYA plummets but it's too hard.
In any case if SYA tooks #1 it would stay for only 2 weeks. But I'm not an expert (in fact I'm very bad predicting) so anything could happen.
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Apr 9, 2015 14:02:28 GMT -5
They only count when Billboard wants them to count. Otherwise they don't. I'm not sure if you were just trying to be funny, but in case you and others seriously think that's how it works: RAISING THE 'DEAD' QUESTION"Hi Mark. Thanks for your question.
Billboard is only able to include YouTube views in chart calculations for songs that are properly registered by the video clip content owner, claimed by a licensed representative of the song being used in the clip, or identified by YouTube's content ID system. This also includes user-generated videos utilizing official song audio.
Due to superseding licensing agreements between the video clip content owner and song owner, or the song owner and YouTube, views of certain clips that feature song audio might not be counted.In regards to the two songs you mention, the licensing agreements most likely differed, leading to data from only one of the titles making its way from YouTube to Billboard. For more about YouTube's content ID system, please feel free to check here." I don't fully understand every aspect of this, but it seems like Billboard only receives the data for certain videos based on licenses and such. If Facebook (from the recent "Trouble" situation, for example) isn't able or willing to send their data to Billboard, there's not much Billboard can do. It really doesn't seem to be a matter of BB just picking-and-choosing what they want to count, they just can't incorporate data that they don't have. |
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Post by Rose "Payola" Nylund on Apr 9, 2015 14:04:00 GMT -5
Did you remember when I predicted an 80% of probability of UF being at #1 for a 15th week? Well... Now I predict about 10%, sorry. I don't get it. So if it stays at #1 for week 15, you're right. But if it doesn't, you're right. It's like a non-committing prediction. |
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 14:04:46 GMT -5
Even if SYA gets #1 next week, wonder if UF has a chance at regaining #1 the week after. Literally, aside from SYA and its sales, theres still NO major competition! lol.
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ss8
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Post by ss8 on Apr 9, 2015 14:10:20 GMT -5
Guess the bigger question is how many weeks will UF stay at #2 lol. If not, what could cause UF to fall out of the top 2 in the next week or 2? If it stays there for like 3-4 weeks that would be super annoying as it wouldve confirmed for sure if would've broken the record if not for SYA.
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Post by Mikel Echarri on Apr 9, 2015 14:13:18 GMT -5
Did you remember when I predicted an 80% of probability of UF being at #1 for a 15th week? Well... Now I predict about 10%, sorry. I don't get it. So if it stays at #1 for week 15, you're right. But if it doesn't, you're right. It's like a non-committing prediction. No, I just changed my thought of the probability of UF being #1 next week |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Apr 9, 2015 14:14:39 GMT -5
All time - most weeks top 2
16, "I Gotta Feeling," the Black Eyed Peas, 2009 (14/2)
16, "We Belong Together," Mariah Carey, 2005 (14/2)
16, "One Sweet Day," Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men, 1995 (16/0)
15, "All About That Bass," Meghan Trainor, 2014 (8/7)
15, "I'll Make Love to You," Boyz II Men, 1994 (14/1)
15, "I Will Always Love You," Whitney Houston, 1992 (14/1)
15 "Uptown Funk" Mark Ronson, 2015 (14/1)
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Apr 9, 2015 14:17:43 GMT -5
Guess the bigger question is how many weeks will UF stay at #2 lol. If not, what could cause UF to fall out of the top 2 in the next week or 2? If it stays there for like 3-4 weeks that would be super annoying as it wouldve confirmed for sure if would've broken the record if not for SYA. It's wont be out of the Top 2 next week. Sugar will be closer in airplay but will not pass it unless something drastic happens. Sales are a toss up, but streaming still favors UF. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 14:26:40 GMT -5
I don't know. Uptown Funk will lose airplay #1 in as early as 2 weeks. Streaming is the only stronghold Thrift Shop, Timber, and some other songs held on to #1 in their final weeks without being #1 in any of the three chart metrics |
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dajross6
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Post by dajross6 on Apr 9, 2015 14:29:58 GMT -5
Nope! 12 +2 SAM HUNT Take Your Time 78.751 +0.222 13573 +112 19 12 78.847 13573 HAC/Country11 = ZAC BROWN BAND Homegrown 79.581 +0.377 13805 +23 30 11 79.581 13860 CountryUp until maybe two or three years ago, the country panel that was used for reporting was maybe half of what it is today. I'm not sure what the panel decisions are and how this all adds up, but it seems arbitrary that Country max airplay represents 70% of max of Pop/Top 40, rock counts for 10% of Pop, etc. It just seems crazy that people have always made those decisions instead of a level ground for most genres. I mean, it makes sense that Top 40 has always seemed the most popular genre, but there's probably more country stations than any other format nationally (or at least close). Pop songs are generally spun more often, but I'm really interested in how panel changes factors into overall airplay. I'm definitely not saying the current process is wrong, but I'm interested in seeing how panel changes are decided on as far as how many panels are included in the chart or tracking. Many more stations are tracked now than 5-10 years ago and songs are spun more, plus the panel is increasing quick which is leading to songs creeping into the top ten. I wonder if the panel chosen is a straight percentage sample of the number of stations in the country. |
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crystalphnx
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Post by crystalphnx on Apr 9, 2015 14:30:24 GMT -5
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 14:32:06 GMT -5
I'm still banking on sales around the 350k range for SYA despite what kworbs early prediction was. As I've said before, using UF's recent sales as a point of reference, it doesn't really add up how SYA could be over 400. If it does turn out to be well over that, then I agree that SYA has it. But I don't think it will be, so that's why I'm not all that worried for UF yet. 350k wouldn't be enough for SYA to do it (unless UF plummeted well below 100k this week).
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 14:35:10 GMT -5
All time - most weeks top 2 16, "I Gotta Feeling," the Black Eyed Peas, 2009 (14/2) 16, "We Belong Together," Mariah Carey, 2005 (14/2) 16, "One Sweet Day," Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men, 1995 (16/0) 15, "All About That Bass," Meghan Trainor, 2014 (8/7) 15, "I'll Make Love to You," Boyz II Men, 1994 (14/1) 15, "I Will Always Love You," Whitney Houston, 1992 (14/1) 15 "Uptown Funk" Mark Ronson, 2015 (14/1) Well UF should at least tie that all time record if nothing else. |
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JamaicaFunk²
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Post by JamaicaFunk² on Apr 9, 2015 14:36:54 GMT -5
As I've said before, using UF's recent sales as a point of reference, it doesn't really add up how SYA could be over 400. It doesn't? UF sold what last week? around 130,000? Let's say it drops even slightly to 125,000... if that is 25% of what SYA sells, it'll be 450,000-500,000. SYA has been 3-4x the amount for UF all week so far. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 14:39:56 GMT -5
I'm still banking on sales around the 350k range for SYA despite what kworbs early prediction was. As I've said before, using UF's recent sales as a point of reference, it doesn't really add up how SYA could be over 400. If it does turn out to be well over that, then I agree that SYA has it. But I don't think it will be, so that's why I'm not all that worried for UF yet. 350k wouldn't be enough for SYA to do it (unless UF plummeted well below 100k this week). Or if SYA gets sufficient streaming (the official video is at almost 9 million now, but that's worldwide). The only way it will sell less than 400k is if it starts getting reds on the pop bars. It could happen. Both SYA and UF will probably start seeing sales gains again on the weekend. All time - most weeks top 2 16, "I Gotta Feeling," the Black Eyed Peas, 2009 (14/2) 16, "We Belong Together," Mariah Carey, 2005 (14/2) 16, "One Sweet Day," Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men, 1995 (16/0) 15, "All About That Bass," Meghan Trainor, 2014 (8/7) 15, "I'll Make Love to You," Boyz II Men, 1994 (14/1) 15, "I Will Always Love You," Whitney Houston, 1992 (14/1) 15 "Uptown Funk" Mark Ronson, 2015 (14/1) Well UF should at least tie that all time record if nothing else. I think it will beat that record. It's only two weeks away so I think it can pull it off. As I've said before, using UF's recent sales as a point of reference, it doesn't really add up how SYA could be over 400. It doesn't? UF sold what last week? around 130,000? Let's say it drops even slightly to 125,000... if that is 25% of what SYA sells, it'll be 450,000-500,000. SYA has been 3-4x the amount for UF all week so far. 163k actually and yes, SYA will sell around 450k-500k provided it doesn't start falling. But it might... |
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jjose712
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Post by jjose712 on Apr 9, 2015 14:41:33 GMT -5
UF is on its way down in all formats, so i doubt it will rebound if it loses the number one.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 14:45:15 GMT -5
^ actually still gaining on AC and Urban AC it even gained on rhythmic today lol. It's certainly falling very slowly in airplay compared to other huge radio smashes like Happy and Blurred Lines which were losing 5M per day even earlier in their run. If SYA gets #1 on 4/25 tumbles in sales next week, I'm quite sure UF will return to #1 5/2 unless Sugar somehow gains enough sales and streaming to sneak past it. |
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 14:52:31 GMT -5
As I've said before, using UF's recent sales as a point of reference, it doesn't really add up how SYA could be over 400. It doesn't? UF sold what last week? around 130,000? Let's say it drops even slightly to 125,000... if that is 25% of what SYA sells, it'll be 450,000-500,000. SYA has been 3-4x the amount for UF all week so far. I'd say the average lead has been around 3.2x for the first three days. And I would think the highest UF would sell next week would be like 120k. Could be more like 105k. 120 x 3.2 is 384k. Granted it could be significantly higher than that if the gap stays as big as its been today or keeps getting further apart. At any rate, 477k makes no sense to me. 400k I can get, but not that. |
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jenglisbe
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Post by jenglisbe on Apr 9, 2015 14:58:34 GMT -5
UF is on its way down in all formats, so i doubt it will rebound if it loses the number one. But nothing else is really rising to challenge it in airplay, so it doesn't matter if "UF" is down at all formats. Anyway, "SYA" will likely be aided in sales over the weekend as more people see the movie. So, I expect it to maintain its lead through the weekend for sure. |
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popbox
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Post by popbox on Apr 9, 2015 15:05:09 GMT -5
In fact, looking back on Monday's kworb updates, SYA may have only been 2x ahead of UF for that day. UF was still really strong in the morning and afternoon. Then Tuesday, it looks like it was around 3x for the day as a whole, and around 3.5x for Wednesday. So the average lead for the first three days combined is actually more like 2.8x. Obviously the weekend could make a huge difference, but going off only the first half of the week I stand by there being no way SYA would hit any more than 400k.
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allow that
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Post by allow that on Apr 9, 2015 15:22:54 GMT -5
What's interesting is that "See You Again" will be the first time a black rapper* will reach #1 as a lead artist since.... early 2011 when Wiz Khalifa spent a week at #1 with "Black & Yellow." This is a particularly staggering factoid when you consider Mackelmore & Ryan Lewis, Eminem, and Iggy Azalea have all had #1 singles in the meantime.
*Flo Rida reached #1 in summer 2012 so it's up to you whether he counts as a rapper or not.
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