Carrie Underwood - "Smoke Break"

[bornfearless2000]

First live performance for Smoke Break

Aug 30, 2015 0:19:51 GMT -5 AP said:

[casanova]

How's this doing on the charts??

[sabre14]

Aug 30, 2015 6:39:24 GMT -5 casanova said:

How's this doing on the charts??

It's doing fine. Up 765 spins and nearly 4.0 million in audience this week on MB and should move up 5 spots to #26 later this afternoon when the chart sends away its recurrents for the week (Michael Ray).

[carrieidol1]

Why haven't we gotten sales numbers yet? It's been out over a week..

[kml567]

First week sales of 66k according to kworb. It has since fallen down to #42 on iTunes after just 1 week. Tepid response from her fan-base on this song. We're not seeing the usual iTunes domination like past lead singles.

I miss the old Carrie. Hopefully she'll return to form and release new songs that are more like her first 2 albums. After many listens on the radio, I still have not grown to like the song. I've downloaded her lead single for the past few albums, but I've decided to pass on this one.

[surfy]

I really enjoy the song, I think the sales will pick up soon.

[carrieidol1]

After a live TV performance or two, this will surely make its way to platinum, at least. I think 66k is a great start! It has been less than a year since we've had new music from Carrie. Had we gone this whole past year without SITW and LTG, I think sales would have been closer to that of SITW's debut numbers. The "thirst" just wasn't as strong, I think, because of the "Hits" album... Still, Carrie is known for her longevity in terms of record sales, and I'm sure this will only serve to further confirm that reputation.

[layne]

Sales will likely pick up as this gets into higher rotation on radio and also after some TV performances but I'll be totally shocked to see this go platinum. Gold, I definitely see but just don't think this song feels like it will go down as one of Carrie's more memorable songs when I listen to it. I don't have a clue on this, but did Little Toy Guns go Gold or Platinum?

[carrieidol1]

Aug 30, 2015 19:13:49 GMT -5 layne said:

Sales will likely pick up as this gets into higher rotation on radio and also after some TV performances but I'll be totally shocked to see this go platinum. Gold, I definitely see but just don't think this song feels like it will go down as one of Carrie's more memorable songs when I listen to it. I don't have a clue on this, but did Little Toy Guns go Gold or Platinum?

"Little Toy Guns", "Mama's Song", "Don't Forget to Remember Me", and "Inside Your Heaven" are gold. Every other single released by Carrie, ever, is at least platinum. Like I alluded to before, Carrie isn't really known for big first weeks, she's known for incredible longevity when it comes to sales. With a 66k opening week, I suspect she'll close in on 100k this week, or next week. Her sales, at that point, will likely plateau and/or steadily increase as this song rises on the airplay chart. This song has yet to be performed live on TV; which I suspect will change in the coming months. As the album release nears, Carrie will be all over TV, likely performing "Smoke Break" as it'll probably be peaking around the time of the album release, or soon thereafter. I can't predict the future, but I can say with certainty that this will go platinum; it's only a matter of time. It's Carrie Underwood we're talking about, after all; the top selling digital artist in all of country music!

To add, "Little Toy Guns" was arguably Carrie's least promoted single, ever. There was one live TV performance around its peak, the CMT Awards (maybe 3-4 million in audience, I'm not sure). Two months later, it was shown on TV during the CMA fest, well past its peak. Those two performances, its music video, and its radio airplay are all it had, and it just went gold. Carrie's sales power truly is unexplainable. A song with that little promo just shouldn't sell 500,000 digital copies, but when it's Carrie Underwood for some reason it does, every time.

[layne]

Aug 30, 2015 19:27:10 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

Aug 30, 2015 19:13:49 GMT -5 layne said:

Sales will likely pick up as this gets into higher rotation on radio and also after some TV performances but I'll be totally shocked to see this go platinum. Gold, I definitely see but just don't think this song feels like it will go down as one of Carrie's more memorable songs when I listen to it. I don't have a clue on this, but did Little Toy Guns go Gold or Platinum?

"Little Toy Guns", "Mama's Song", "Don't Forget to Remember Me", and "Inside Your Heaven" are gold. Every other single released by Carrie, ever, is at least platinum. Like I alluded to before, Carrie isn't really known for big first weeks, she's known for incredible longevity when it comes to sales. With a 66k opening week, I suspect she'll close in on 100k this week, or next week. Her sales, at that point, will likely plateau and/or steadily increase as this song rises on the airplay chart. This song has yet to be performed live on TV; which I suspect will change in the coming months. As the album release nears, Carrie will be all over TV, likely performing "Smoke Break" as it'll probably be peaking around the time of the album release, or soon thereafter. I can't predict the future, but I can say with certainty that this will go platinum; it's only a matter of time. It's Carrie Underwood we're talking about, after all; the top selling digital artist in all of country music!

To add, "Little Toy Guns" was arguably Carrie's least promoted single, ever. There was one live TV performance around its peak, the CMT Awards (maybe 3-4 million in audience, I'm not sure). Two months later, it was shown on TV during the CMA fest, well past its peak. Those two performances, its music video, and its radio airplay are all it had, and it just went gold. Carrie's sales power truly is unexplainable. A song with that little promo just shouldn't sell 500,000 digital copies, but when it's Carrie Underwood for some reason it does, every time.

I'm well aware of Carrie's star power and maybe this song will be platinum but I don't think casual fans are going to buy this song like they have other singles and maybe I feel that way because I don't really think this is one of her stronger single releases but as you say, she has incredible selling power and hopefully her streak of platinum singles continue.

[carrieidol1]

Aug 30, 2015 19:47:16 GMT -5 layne said:

Aug 30, 2015 19:27:10 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

"Little Toy Guns", "Mama's Song", "Don't Forget to Remember Me", and "Inside Your Heaven" are gold. Every other single released by Carrie, ever, is at least platinum. Like I alluded to before, Carrie isn't really known for big first weeks, she's known for incredible longevity when it comes to sales. With a 66k opening week, I suspect she'll close in on 100k this week, or next week. Her sales, at that point, will likely plateau and/or steadily increase as this song rises on the airplay chart. This song has yet to be performed live on TV; which I suspect will change in the coming months. As the album release nears, Carrie will be all over TV, likely performing "Smoke Break" as it'll probably be peaking around the time of the album release, or soon thereafter. I can't predict the future, but I can say with certainty that this will go platinum; it's only a matter of time. It's Carrie Underwood we're talking about, after all; the top selling digital artist in all of country music!

To add, "Little Toy Guns" was arguably Carrie's least promoted single, ever. There was one live TV performance around its peak, the CMT Awards (maybe 3-4 million in audience, I'm not sure). Two months later, it was shown on TV during the CMA fest, well past its peak. Those two performances, its music video, and its radio airplay are all it had, and it just went gold. Carrie's sales power truly is unexplainable. A song with that little promo just shouldn't sell 500,000 digital copies, but when it's Carrie Underwood for some reason it does, every time.

I'm well aware of Carrie's star power and maybe this song will be platinum but I don't think casual fans are going to buy this song like they have other singles and maybe I feel that way because I don't really think this is one of her stronger single releases but as you say, she has incredible selling power and hopefully her streak of platinum singles continue.

I see the opposite happening, since this song is perhaps Carrie's most relatable single in a while, but we'll see; only time will tell! Judging by its record breaking start at radio, and the general public's positive reception, I think this will do just fine; both in sales and airplay. I'm just anxious to hear this performed live on TV! I think we'll definitely have a better idea of things once a live TV performance happens; hopefully sooner rather than later!

[countrygirl918]

What also needs to be taken into account is just how much Apple Music has affected digital single sales, especially during its 3-month trial period. As Windmills pointed out on twitter the other day, average weekly sales for the top 10 iTunes singles have dropped 18.4% since Apple Music launched (26% if you drop the week where One Direction's single debuted). It remains to be seen if sales will pick back up once the majority of Apple Music's users have finished their free trials.

"Smoke Break" is, perhaps, not as much of an instant hit as Carrie's past lead singles have been. But I've seen a lot of comments about it growing on people, so I think it will do very well long-term. As it continues to rise on the airplay charts and as we near the album release week (which I'm sure will be filled with tons of TV performances of the song), I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it hit platinum.

[dm2081]

Sometimes I think we can over analyze certain things on here (not singling out anybody in particular). This song had very good first week sales, and looks to be one of the bigger hits of the year. So what if it's not as big as one of her previous staple hits. When you get to this point in a career like Carrie's, it's mostly about just sustaining momentum and keeping the single selection solid. I think this will go down as a big single and a very well respected one.

[14887fan]

Took us ten days to finally reach a mini-meltdown! This is the real success story here for Underwood fans.

This song'll be fine. It's opened with a PRESUMED 66k -- those were just kworb's predictions. That'll put it in the Top 20 of the digital songs chart for all genres. It'll scan Gold, it'll hopefully hit the top spot on at least one of the fifty charts that Country music has to its name across both Billboard and Mediabase, and it'll be performed live on TV in September. She's booked for the Today Show and, from what's been said by several fan-related Twitter accounts that Underwood & her team follow, Jimmy Fallon, all by Sept. 10. Add that with the CMA nominations coming out soon, and that's already some steady promo for the song. Also, Ellen's thirteenth season is premiering at the same time she'll be doing that NYC promo & her NYFW Calia showing, so maybe there's a possible appearance there, too. We shall see, but the point is that the song is doing, and will be, fine.

[samsager3]

Aug 30, 2015 14:33:07 GMT -5 kml567 said:

First week sales of 66k according to kworb. It has since fallen down to #42 on iTunes after just 1 week. Tepid response from her fan-base on this song. We're not seeing the usual iTunes domination like past lead singles.

I miss the old Carrie. Hopefully she'll return to form and release new songs that are more like her first 2 albums. After many listens on the radio, I still have not grown to like the song. I've downloaded her lead single for the past few albums, but I've decided to pass on this one.

I totally agree with you that I wish she'd go back to her first two albums for inspiration back when she was actually you know country. That being said I like this song and think it's probably about as close as well ever get to that sound again and I'm fine accepting that fact. I think she sounds excellent on this and it's very relatable. Regardless a word to the wise is don't express an assenting opinion on a Carrie underwood song on here the fanboys will rapidly attack you lol.

[carrieidol1]

Aug 31, 2015 7:16:07 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

Aug 30, 2015 14:33:07 GMT -5 kml567 said:

First week sales of 66k according to kworb. It has since fallen down to #42 on iTunes after just 1 week. Tepid response from her fan-base on this song. We're not seeing the usual iTunes domination like past lead singles.

I miss the old Carrie. Hopefully she'll return to form and release new songs that are more like her first 2 albums. After many listens on the radio, I still have not grown to like the song. I've downloaded her lead single for the past few albums, but I've decided to pass on this one.

I totally agree with you that I wish she'd go back to her first two albums for inspiration back when she was actually you know country. That being said I like this song and think it's probably about as close as well ever get to that sound again and I'm fine accepting that fact. I think she sounds excellent on this and it's very relatable. Regardless a word to the wise is don't express an assenting opinion on a Carrie underwood song on here the fanboys will rapidly attack you lol.

You get "attacked" when you post shady trolling posts, like the one I'm highlighting in bold. Before your post, there was nothing but productive discussion occurring. :)

[samsager3]

Aug 31, 2015 8:01:31 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

Aug 31, 2015 7:16:07 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

I totally agree with you that I wish she'd go back to her first two albums for inspiration back when she was actually you know country. That being said I like this song and think it's probably about as close as well ever get to that sound again and I'm fine accepting that fact. I think she sounds excellent on this and it's very relatable. Regardless a word to the wise is don't express an assenting opinion on a Carrie underwood song on here the fanboys will rapidly attack you lol.

You get "attacked" when you post shady trolling posts, like the one I'm highlighting in bold. Before your post, there was nothing but productive discussion occurring. :)

Really because it seemed as though the other poster was being attacked for his opinion that this single wasn't up to her usual quality if that's not what was happening I'm sorry but that's how it appeared to me. And honestly if saying that I don't like a certain song is shady then guilty as charged. I get attacked for having a different opinion from that of underwood fans? I like this song all I was saying is that I haven't like her material for a while and for that I get attacked? I'm sorry I felt as though for a while she thought she was a pop star and she's finally coming back to country again that's just my opinion.

[carrieidol1]

Aug 31, 2015 10:29:46 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

Aug 31, 2015 8:01:31 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

You get "attacked" when you post shady trolling posts, like the one I'm highlighting in bold. Before your post, there was nothing but productive discussion occurring. :)

Really because it seemed as though the other poster was being attacked for his opinion that this single wasn't up to her usual quality if that's not what was happening I'm sorry but that's how it appeared to me. And honestly if saying that I don't like a certain song is shady then guilty as charged. I get attacked for having a different opinion from that of underwood fans? I like this song all I was saying is that I haven't like her material for a while and for that I get attacked? I'm sorry I felt as though for a while she thought she was a pop star and she's finally coming back to country again that's just my opinion.

Well, you read it wrong then, because there were no "attacks" occurring whatsoever. We were discussing differing predictions as to how "Smoke Break" will sell. Apology accepted.

FYI: the shady part is what I highlighted in bold. You know, your "word to the wise" comment at the end?...

[.indulgecountry]

Aug 31, 2015 10:29:46 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

Aug 31, 2015 8:01:31 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

You get "attacked" when you post shady trolling posts, like the one I'm highlighting in bold. Before your post, there was nothing but productive discussion occurring. :)

Really because it seemed as though the other poster was being attacked for his opinion that this single wasn't up to her usual quality if that's not what was happening I'm sorry but that's how it appeared to me. And honestly if saying that I don't like a certain song is shady then guilty as charged. I get attacked for having a different opinion from that of underwood fans? I like this song all I was saying is that I haven't like her material for a while and for that I get attacked? I'm sorry I felt as though for a while she thought she was a pop star and she's finally coming back to country again that's just my opinion.

The post carrieidol1 quoted was perfectly fine until your last line, which I think was a pretty obvious pot-stirring move and then here you are playing the victim after being gently reminded of exactly that. No one is attacking you. You're bringing all of this onto yourself.

[samsager3]

Aug 31, 2015 10:39:34 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

Aug 31, 2015 10:29:46 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

Really because it seemed as though the other poster was being attacked for his opinion that this single wasn't up to her usual quality if that's not what was happening I'm sorry but that's how it appeared to me. And honestly if saying that I don't like a certain song is shady then guilty as charged. I get attacked for having a different opinion from that of underwood fans? I like this song all I was saying is that I haven't like her material for a while and for that I get attacked? I'm sorry I felt as though for a while she thought she was a pop star and she's finally coming back to country again that's just my opinion.

Well, you read it wrong then, because there were no "attacks" occurring whatsoever. We were discussing differing predictions as to how "Smoke Break" will sell. Apology accepted.

FYI: the shady part is what I highlighted in bold. You know, your "word to the wise" comment at the end?...

I was gently trying to let the poster know that posting thing negative to underwood is usually met with a lot of criticism I guess I should have done so in a private message though sorry.

[rsmatto]

Single sold 56k this past week.

[carrieidol1]

Aug 31, 2015 11:00:39 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

Aug 31, 2015 10:39:34 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

Well, you read it wrong then, because there were no "attacks" occurring whatsoever. We were discussing differing predictions as to how "Smoke Break" will sell. Apology accepted.

FYI: the shady part is what I highlighted in bold. You know, your "word to the wise" comment at the end?...

I was gently trying to let the poster know that posting thing negative to underwood is usually met with a lot of criticism I guess I should have done so in a private message though sorry.

It really isn't your place, nor is it anyone's place, to "warn" posters of others, especially of entire fan-bases. It contributes nothing to the discussion, and comes off incredibly shady... After all, this is a discussion board.

Back to the topic! I'm happy with 56k, although that does seem low considering the huge splash SB made last week. Is 56k from a full week of sales? How does that reporting work?

Also, for what it's worth, using the 18.4% sales decline figure mentioned above regarding Apple Music, "Smoke Break" would have likely sold closer to 70k. Obviously that's a very rough estimate, but still worth noting, I think.

[sgtoddball]

Aug 31, 2015 12:00:34 GMT -5 rsmatto said:

Single sold 56k this past week.

 Wow, that number surprises me. I expected 80-100K.

[rsmatto]

Aug 31, 2015 13:28:24 GMT -5 sgtoddball said:

Aug 31, 2015 12:00:34 GMT -5 rsmatto said:

Single sold 56k this past week.

 Wow, that number surprises me. I expected 80-100K.

Thank Apple Music for that. It's affected ALL iTunes sales.

[defying gravity]

This one will do well in the long run. I already hear this song at least three times a day on my local station, and this is the same station that added "Little Toy Guns" four weeks after the add date.

[14887fan]

Lands at #1 on Country Digital Songs. For perspective on the sales of this song, this week's #1 song on the Digital Sales chart for all genres, "Locked Away", only sold 91k. That's kind of abysmal for #1, and as someone pointed out in the respective Hot 100 thread, this is the first time a #1 has dipped below 100k (or greater) sold since the mid-2000s. As rsmatto said, all sales have been hit because of Apple Music.

[Deleted]

Aug 31, 2015 15:31:53 GMT -5 14887fan said:

Lands at #1 on Country Digital Songs. For perspective on the sales of this song, this week's #1 song on the Digital Sales chart for all genres, "Locked Away", only sold 91k. That's kind of abysmal for #1, and as someone pointed out in the respective Hot 100 thread, this is the first time a #1 has dipped below 100k (or greater) sold since the mid-2000s. As rsmatto said, all sales have been hit because of Apple Music.

Then that should make any worriers feel better.

[samsager3]

Aug 31, 2015 12:06:51 GMT -5 carrieidol1 said:

Aug 31, 2015 11:00:39 GMT -5 samsager3 said:

I was gently trying to let the poster know that posting thing negative to underwood is usually met with a lot of criticism I guess I should have done so in a private message though sorry.

It really isn't your place, nor is it anyone's place, to "warn" posters of others, especially of entire fan-bases. It contributes nothing to the discussion, and comes off incredibly shady... After all, this is a discussion board.

Back to the topic! I'm happy with 56k, although that does seem low considering the huge splash SB made last week. Is 56k from a full week of sales? How does that reporting work?

Also, for what it's worth, using the 18.4% sales decline figure mentioned above regarding Apple Music, "Smoke Break" would have likely sold closer to 70k. Obviously that's a very rough estimate, but still worth noting, I think.

Thank you for tell me what is and isn't my place to tel other posters u appreciate it. Anyways I'm in no way trying to start a fight so this is all I'll say on the matter, yes this is a discussion board that gets derailed every time someone has a negative opinion of Carrie underwood I'm sorry that's just how I feel but I fell it's not getting anywhere fighting so let's end it there.

[ant]

This song just doesn't give me that big impacting lead single feel that I've gotten with her other lead singles. It's just very "meh" and honestly a little boring to me. As a HUGE Carrie fan for about 8-9 years, I feel really disappointed with this. Do I hate the song? No. But it's really nowhere near on par with "Jesus, Take the Wheel", "So Small", "Cowboy Casanova", "Good Girl", or "Something in the Water". Every time a lead single from Carrie has dropped, I would have it on repeat constantly and I don't feel like I've listened to this one anywhere near as much as her past ones. I hope this isn't representative of the album as a whole, and the 2nd single is something more along the lines of her past work.  I really got my hopes up with "Something in the Water" and "Little Toy Guns" because I could hear the progression in Carrie's voice and sound, but this isn't representative of that at all.

[carrieidol1]

Aug 31, 2015 18:53:02 GMT -5 ant said:

This song just doesn't give me that big impacting lead single feel that I've gotten with her other lead singles. It's just very "meh" and honestly a little boring to me. As a HUGE Carrie fan for about 8-9 years, I feel really disappointed with this. Do I hate the song? No. But it's really nowhere near on par with "Jesus, Take the Wheel", "So Small", "Cowboy Casanova", "Good Girl", or "Something in the Water". Every time a lead single from Carrie has dropped, I would have it on repeat constantly and I don't feel like I've listened to this one anywhere near as much as her past ones. I hope this isn't representative of the album as a whole, and the 2nd single is something more along the lines of her past work.  I really got my hopes up with "Something in the Water" and "Little Toy Guns" because I could hear the progression in Carrie's voice and sound, but this isn't representative of that at all.

I love the song, but I'm with you on this one. I haven't listened to "Smoke Break" nearly as much as I have Carrie's past lead singles... For me, it's "meh" too, relative to some of her other stuff. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd gander a guess that you and I are both into Carrie's big/climactic/message songs, right? I just don't think I missed that so much because SITW and LTG are so recent, but I do agree. In the long run, this is far from being my favorite Carrie song. I do love that it represents somewhat of an artistic revolution for Carrie, though, and I think that's why I've been so excited about this song despite not listening on repeat like I have her other lead singles.