Billboard Hot 100: 08/29/15 (#MESS)

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 08/11/15

1. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 183.393 (+ 1.070)
2. OMI - Cheerleader: 173.218 (+ 1.875)
3. TAYLOR SWIFT - Bad Blood f/Kendrick Lamar: 165.146 (- 2.438)
4. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 129.864 (- 0.485)
5. RACHEL PLATTEN - Fight Song: 118.213 (- 0.094)
6. MAJOR LAZER - Lean On f/MØ & DJ Snake: 116.330 (+ 1.548)
7. WIZ KHALIFA - See You Again f/Charlie Puth: 109.309 (- 1.645)
8. ED SHEERAN - Photograph: 97.489 (+ 0.787)
9. FIFTH HARMONY - Worth It f/Kid Ink: 94.894 (- 0.956)
10. ANDY GRAMMER - Honey, I'm Good: 89.954 (- 1.913)
11. SKRILLEX & DIPLO - Where Are U Now w/J. Bieber: 88.855 (+ 0.735) ▲
12. JASON DERULO - Want To Want Me: 88.411 (- 0.086) ▼
13. DAVID GUETTA - Hey Mama f/N. Minaj & Afrojack: 82.739 (- 1.902)
14. FALL OUT BOY - Uma Thurman: 77.838 (+ 1.142)
15. SELENA GOMEZ - Good For You f/A$AP Rocky: 75.658 (+ 1.751)
16. DEMI LOVATO - Cool For The Summer: 74.717 (+ 0.861)
17. MAROON 5 - Sugar: 68.809 (- 0.493)
18. MARK RONSON - Uptown Funk f/Bruno Mars: 68.699 (+ 0.177) ▲
19. OMARION - Post To Be f/Chris Brown&Jhene: 67.587 (- 1.298) ▼
20. MICHAEL RAY - Kiss You In The Morning: 66.444 (- 0.367)

ZAC BROWN BAND - Loving You Easy: 64.649 (+ 0.809)
FRANKIE BALLARD - Young & Crazy: 61.640 (+ 0.196)
FETTY WAP - My Way f/Monty: 59.227 (+ 0.734)
SAM HUNT - House Party: 57.602 (+ 0.821)
THOMAS RHETT - Crash And Burn: 48.790 (+ 0.652)
R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 43.416 (+ 1.249)
X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 34.859 (+ 0.497)
CHARLIE PUTH - Marvin Gaye f/Meghan Trainor: 32.199 (+ 0.274)
MEEK MILL - All Eyes On You f/Minaj/Brown: 30.697 (+ 0.662)
THE WEEKND - The Hills: 29.210 (+ 1.221)
FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE - Anything Goes: 27.738 (+ 0.446)
5 SECONDS OF SUMMER - She's Kinda Hot: 27.646 (+ 0.214)
JASON DERULO - Cheyenne: 27.250 (+ 0.222)
ZEDD - Beautiful Now f/Jon Bellion: 27.127 (+ 0.330)
ONE DIRECTION - Drag Me Down: 20.671 (+ 1.401)
JANET JACKSON - No Sleeep: 18.326 (- 0.010)
CALVIN HARRIS + DISCIPLES - How Deep Is Your Love: 13.725 (+ 0.182)
MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 13.130 (+ 0.443)
SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 13.015 (+ 0.505)
DRAKE - Back To Back: 12.351 (+ 0.649)
MACKLEMORE & RYAN LEWIS - Growing Up f/Ed Sheeran: 11.576 (+ 1.469)
DISCLOSURE - Omen f/Sam Smith: 10.544 (+ 0.278)
CHRIS BROWN - Liquor: 10.501 (+ 0373)
A GREAT BIG WORLD - Hold Each Other f/Futuristic: 10.466 (+ 0.619)
ALESSIA CARA - Here: 9.175 (+ 0.377)
HAILEE STEINFELD - Love Myself: 6.237 (+ 1.688)
ROBIN THICKE - Back Together f/Nicki Minaj: 2.246 (+ 0.385)
RITA ORA - Body On Me f/Chris Brown: 0.942 (+ 0.140)
LANA DEL REY - High By The Beach: 0.033

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Aug 11, 2015 8:17:57 GMT -5 Daniel Collins said:

Mediabase 08/11/15

LANA DEL SLAY - High By The Beach: 0.033

Get it

[slw84]

Happy for can't feel my face I sure hope lean on can manage top 3 next week or at least at some point.
My favorite dance "edm" ish song of the year...

[Ravi]

My Predictions:

Rank	Song	Sales	Airplay	Streams	Points
1	Can't Feel My Face	130	155	16.0	44,100
2	Cheerleader	120	148	16.0	42,600
3	Watch Me	100	50	20.0	35,500
4	Lean On	95	105	12.0	31,700
5	Fight Song	90	98	7.0	25,100
6	Bad Blood	60	125	6.0	24,200
7	The Hills	75	30	13.0	23,700
8	My Way	55	54	12.0	23,300
9	Trap Queen	40	32	14.5	22,600
10	See You Again	35	83	10.0	22,300
11	Good For You	75	70	8.0	22,100
12	Where Are U Now	45	78	9.5	22,100
13	Shut Up+Dance	40	104	5.5	19,800

#14-17 Worth It 18,000
#14-17 Uptown Funk! 18,000
#14-17 Photograph 18,000
#14-17 679 18,000
#18-19 Drag Me Down 17,700
#18-19 Cool For The Summer 17,700

* Drag Me Down will very likely be dropping outside Top-15.
* Fight Song should enter Top-5
* The Hills should definitely enter Top-10.
* Good For You has a chance of entering Top-10 if it can gain on streaming.

[badrobot]

I feel like CFMF and Cheerleader may trade back and forth at #1 for the next 1-2 months. Nothing below seems to really stand a chance. I imagine there must be some new songs coming soon from big artists?

Would be pretty awesome if Lean On snuck in a week at #1 if it happened to maintain its pace while the songs above it fell, but I doubt that will happen.

[allow that]

Aug 11, 2015 11:21:25 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I feel like CFMF and Cheerleader may trade back and forth at #1 for the next 1-2 months. Nothing below seems to really stand a chance. I imagine there must be some new songs coming soon from big artists?

Yeah, I was thinking the same re: no new #1 for a while again. Such a boring year to watch the chart.

Would be pretty awesome if Lean On snuck in a week at #1 if it happened to maintain its pace while the songs above it fell, but I doubt that will happen.

OMG! The quality of "Lean On" > all five #1's so far this year

I feel like "Lean On" would need a remix with Drake or someone that would allow it urban airplay and a fresh lease on sales to even come close though.

[lyhom]

I keep on forgetting that there's only been five #1's this whole year so far

five 

jesus

[Kris]

Aug 11, 2015 11:59:32 GMT -5 lyhom said:

I keep on forgetting that there's only been five #1's this whole year so far

five 

jesus

Blank Space, Uptown Funk, See You Again, Bad Blood, Cheerleader, Can't Feel My Face

a whole 6!!

[Au$tin]

I actually like it. It makes the ability to reach number one that much more special. If you get there, you earned it. :kii:

[Enigma.]

Almost anything reached #1 in 2008 and 2010 so different times every year. I believe rest of the year will be busier which might bring the total sum of #1 hits close to 13 like in 2009 (when BEP owned half of the year)

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

What happened to "want to want me"?? Its digital has soared 40-> 7 in less than a crazy day!!

[crystalphnx]

Aug 11, 2015 13:05:22 GMT -5 Kris said:

Blank Space, Uptown Funk, See You Again, Bad Blood, Cheerleader, Can't Feel My Face

a whole 6!!

It depends how you look at it, but Billboard generally doesn't count songs that originally rose to No. 1 the year prior (I imagine in order to avoid double-counting No. 1's - aka "Blank Space" only counts for 2014.) That's why it was phrased this way in the latest recap article:

Even with a new leader, turnover atop the Hot 100 in 2015 remains at a record-tying slow pace, as "Face" is just the fifth song to ascend to No. 1 this year. That equals three other years in which only five songs had also risen to No. 1 from Jan. 1 through charts dated Aug. 22: 1995, 1997 and 2005.


They may have been inconsistent about this over the years, but that's how I remember it being done in the Billboard No. 1/Top 40 collection books I had.

[Gary]

That's the thing with any statistic. It's all how you choose to view it. Billboard probably views it both ways too, they just happen to print one way, which does not mean the other way is any less correct.

[rimetm]

Aug 11, 2015 13:54:32 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

What happened to "want to want me"?? Its digital has soared 40-> 7 in less than a crazy day!!

Luke Bryan and Jason Derulo did a little playful "duet" to the song, and it just started getting attention last night. For background, that karaoke app allows you to perform with another person to an official instrumental; in some cases like this, the artist does a special recording that gives the performer spaces to sing.

[aser94]

I think for stats-keeping purposes, they go by what year a song peaked at #1, the same way they would for any other song that peaked at #2, #3, etc. But I don't think it's meant to imply that it wholly "belongs" to that year, which is how some people interpret it. Because it's a really weird idea. Like if "Uptown Funk!" peaked at #1 in the last week of 2014, would it then discount the other 13 weeks and their impact on 2015?

Also, fwiw, they're talking about turnover in that quote from the recap, and in that case it's useful to look at new #1s in 2015 (so "Blank Space" would be discounted). I think they just phrase it depending on the context and what they're trying to get across. If they were doing an end-of-year recap for 2015 and "UF" spent the first of its 14 weeks in 2014, I don't think they wouldn't mention it.

[allow that]

Some y'all are so pedantic.

[Gary]

Then there is the 13 day lag between the actual date and the magazine date, also the Billboard Year vs The Calendar Year, so then what year does it fall in? - LOL



Seriously, I would read the stats the way you feel most comfortable.


Billboard publishes charts and writes articles for its readers. They interpret it one way for the article they write. Does not make it the law of the land by any means.

[Deleted]

I think Lean On will make it to #4 this week. Drag Me Down will obviously drop a lot (presumably out of the top 10). It's still too far behind the top 3 though but I'm going to say this at risk of sounding delusional: MAYBE the discount helped it get more recognition overall (being really high on iTunes and whatnot) so perhaps it just MIGHT be the next #1?

Also I strongly disagree about CFMF and Cheerleader swapping at #1. The latter is falling further and further behind in sales and airplay and may very well be passed by CFMF in streaming soon too. I don't think Cheerleader will go back to #1.

[sagi]

I'm not so worried about the turnover. We had two of the biggest singles of all time come out this year. No one is beating out Uptown Funk doing a 180M+ in airplay, 300k+ downloads and 18M+ streaming. Same with SYA. It takes forever to unravel those types of numbers which leads to very long runs at the top. Now that the number one totals are a lot more manageable/normal, I think we'll see better turnover and songs that had no shot at number one in March get there in September and Oct. It's criminal that Thinking about You, Sugar, and Trap Queen did not get to number 1 with the totals they put up. Love me like you do and Shut up and dance should have gone higher as well.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 11, 2015 17:18:52 GMT -5 sagi said:

I'm not so worried about the turnover. We had two of the biggest singles of all time come out this year. No one is beating out Uptown Funk doing a 180M+ in airplay, 300k+ downloads and 18M+ streaming. Same with SYA. It takes forever to unravel those types of numbers which leads to very long runs at the top. Now that the number one totals are a lot more manageable/normal, I think we'll see better turnover and songs that had no shot at number one in March get there in September and Oct. It's criminal that Thinking about You, Sugar, and Trap Queen did not get to number 1 with the totals they put up. Love me like you do and Shut up and dance should have gone higher as well.

Hahaha!! That song's "thinking out loud".. You like me that much don't ya?

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Ha power

[House Lannister]

Aug 11, 2015 11:21:25 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I feel like CFMF and Cheerleader may trade back and forth at #1 for the next 1-2 months. Nothing below seems to really stand a chance. I imagine there must be some new songs coming soon from big artists?

Would be pretty awesome if Lean On snuck in a week at #1 if it happened to maintain its pace while the songs above it fell, but I doubt that will happen.

Taylor Swift is coming soon-ish with Wildest Dreams.  She may have more to do with #1 than Cheerleader.

It would be nice to see Lean On at #1, but I think its peak is now right around #3.  Which is still higher than I would have guessed when the song was rising a couple of months ago (would have guessed right around #9 or so).

PS:  That Hailee Stanfield song Love Myself on Daniel's chart.  Is that from Pitch Perfect 2?

[allow that]

In terms of potential #1's in the near future that we haven't heard yet: Ariana Grande's "Focus On Me" and Justin Bieber's "What Do You Mean?"

All depends what kind of first week treatment they get. They may go the way of "Drag Me Down" and have strong debuts while not really posing a threat to #1 either.

[crystalphnx]

Aug 11, 2015 19:30:54 GMT -5 allow that said:

In terms of potential #1's in the near future that we haven't heard yet: Ariana Grande's "Focus On Me" and Justin Bieber's "What Do You Mean?"

All depends what kind of first week treatment they get. They may go the way of "Drag Me Down" and have strong debuts while not really posing a threat to #1 either.

Based on people's calculations, it seems like 1D would've had it in the bag if they'd dropped a video too - so somebody with hype like Ari just needs to pull a "Bad Blood" and drop the video AND single at the same time (she's bound to get good out-the-gate airplay even without a deal), especially since there's no UF or SYA-sized mega-smash blocking the way.

[85la]

It'll be interesting to see what'll happen with Lana's single. It's #1 already on iTunes, but not by a wide margin.

[squirrelgate]

I've moved my turnover rating to its own thread. I've also completed 2013.

pulsemusic.proboards.com/thread/151890/unofficial-top-10-turnover-rating

[sagi]

Aug 11, 2015 18:02:32 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Aug 11, 2015 17:18:52 GMT -5 sagi said:

I'm not so worried about the turnover. We had two of the biggest singles of all time come out this year. No one is beating out Uptown Funk doing a 180M+ in airplay, 300k+ downloads and 18M+ streaming. Same with SYA. It takes forever to unravel those types of numbers which leads to very long runs at the top. Now that the number one totals are a lot more manageable/normal, I think we'll see better turnover and songs that had no shot at number one in March get there in September and Oct. It's criminal that Thinking about You, Sugar, and Trap Queen did not get to number 1 with the totals they put up. Love me like you do and Shut up and dance should have gone higher as well.

Hahaha!! That song's "thinking out loud".. You like me that much don't ya?

Nice catch. 

[Deleted]

I like how Kworb's pop bars now show a $ to indicate that a song is on sale

[TylerG11]

Aug 11, 2015 23:32:57 GMT -5 @markg94 said:

I like how Kworb's pop bars now show a $ to indicate that a song is on sale

I was just getting on here to say this.

[Ravi]

Aug 11, 2015 11:21:25 GMT -5 badrobot said:

I feel like CFMF and Cheerleader may trade back and forth at #1 for the next 1-2 months. Nothing below seems to really stand a chance. I imagine there must be some new songs coming soon from big artists?

Would be pretty awesome if Lean On snuck in a week at #1 if it happened to maintain its pace while the songs above it fell, but I doubt that will happen.

I wouldn't dismiss Lean On's chances yet. CL has already started decreasing in points, and CFMF will also start going down from next week if not from this week. On the other hand, Lean On will keep increasing in points for the next few weeks. So, after 4-5 weeks, if there is no other single which breaks out, Lean On just might surpass CFMF and CL to become the next #1.