Billboard Hot 100: 08/29/15 (#MESS)

[moore746]

I wonder if High By The Beach could have debuted in the top 5 had it had 7 days of sales versus 4.5.

[allow that]

Could it be an album pre-orders type of situation or something?

[sagi]

Given Lana's figure and how the Weekend is totally laying waste right now, anyone else interested in what Prisoner does the week of his album release? That track is undeniable. His album debut week may give him 3 songs in the top 10.

[sagi]

Given Lana's figure and how the Weekend is totally laying waste right now, anyone else interested in what Prisoner does the week of his album release? That track is undeniable. His album debut week may give him 3 songs in the top 10.

[moore746]

Aug 17, 2015 14:02:21 GMT -5 allow that said:

Could it be an album pre-orders type of situation or something?

High By Beach had less than one day's worth of pre-orders if I remember right.

[moore746]

Aug 17, 2015 13:59:17 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Most likely billboard made a boo-boo and tripled or quadrupled her sale figure.. If needed maybe they will re-post the article and ranking in the top 10, at least I hope so (I'm a big fan of Lana.. but this... is just ludicrous and I hate it when a good singer's top 10 is not hard-earned but rather just a mistake made by billboard..)

How often has this happened?

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 17, 2015 14:06:24 GMT -5 moore746 said:

Aug 17, 2015 13:59:17 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Most likely billboard made a boo-boo and tripled or quadrupled her sale figure.. If needed maybe they will re-post the article and ranking in the top 10, at least I hope so (I'm a big fan of Lana.. but this... is just ludicrous and I hate it when a good singer's top 10 is not hard-earned but rather just a mistake made by billboard..)

How often has this happened?

Last time in May of 2014.. Coldplay's "a sky full of stars" roared 43->10 because billboard double counted its sale figure (that week was album week and not only didn't billboard reduce its sale by CMA amount but also doubled that..)
You know..

[House Lannister]

Aug 17, 2015 13:40:10 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Aug 14, 2015 13:59:12 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Be wary, it could switch either this or next week. The airplay gap narrows, the sales gap narrows this week thanks to the performance and the remix which should extend further next week, and the video streaming lead The Weeknd had might reverse.

(I don't want it to happen as much as you do, but after Shake it Off returned to the top for 2 straight weeks, I've become more cautious about overconfidence)

Looks like my skepticism was rightly placed for once. Judging by performance, I'd say it's the music video debut that threw everyone off. Last week was nonindicative of streaming momentum because of it. I was a bit off on radio (CFMF gained 4% and Cheerleader only 3% despite the former having more to begin with), but I knew sales driven by the performance would buffer Cheerleader's decline.

On another note, kworb said 67,000 sales for High by the Beach, while the article lists 248,000. What in the world happened here?

Probably the same thing that happened last week with Cool for the Summer.  Kworb's projections are normally pretty good, but once in a while something gets missed that leads to a headscratcher.  

Perhaps Del Ray sold a bunch of copies in an outlet that he doesn't use in his projections?

[crystalphnx]

Aug 17, 2015 14:10:52 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Aug 17, 2015 14:06:24 GMT -5 moore746 said:

How often has this happened?

Last time in May of 2014.. Coldplay's "a sky full of stars" roared 43->10 because billboard double counted its sale figure (that week was album week and not only didn't billboard reduce its sale by CMA amount but also doubled that..)
You know..

Was that a mistake, though? Here's how it was explained in the Billboard article that week:

Jackson and Timberlake (and writer Anka) aren't the only acts reaching the Hot 100's top 10 this week: Coldplay's' EDM-infused "A Sky Full of Stars," co-written and -produced by Avicii, vaults 43-10, marking the band's third top 10. "Speed of Sound" reached No. 8 in 2005 and "Viva La Vida" led the June 28, 2008, chart. Shooting "Stars" up the Hot 100? Sales; the song actually drops off Digital Songs (from No. 9), but its slide is owed to iTunes' customers who opted to "complete" their purchase of Coldplay's new album, "Ghost Stories," by upgrading their earlier purchases of "Stars" to a full album; the set will debut on next week's Billboard 200. Effectively, consumers who completed the album were returning the song, thus translating to its sales chart absence. For the purposes of the Hot 100, however, aggregate sales contribute to the song's overall point total.

Their approach to handling CMA on Digital Songs VS Hot 100 is confusing, but it seems like it was a deliberate (albeit somewhat strange) choice, not an error. Where did you read that they doubled the figures in addition to including CMA?

www.billboard.com/articles/news/6092276/michael-jackson-coldplay-hot-100-top-10-john-legend-no-1

EDIT: Actually, I think you might be right. Something fishy had to be up that week: the song wasn't on Radio Songs OR Streaming Songs, so even if they didn't subtract the CMA numbers on purpose for the Hot 100, I can't imagine it sold enough to be No. 10 on sales alone. Interesting.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 17, 2015 14:21:08 GMT -5 House Lannister said:

Aug 17, 2015 13:40:10 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Looks like my skepticism was rightly placed for once. Judging by performance, I'd say it's the music video debut that threw everyone off. Last week was nonindicative of streaming momentum because of it. I was a bit off on radio (CFMF gained 4% and Cheerleader only 3% despite the former having more to begin with), but I knew sales driven by the performance would buffer Cheerleader's decline.

On another note, kworb said 67,000 sales for High by the Beach, while the article lists 248,000. What in the world happened here?

Probably the same thing that happened last week with Cool for the Summer.  Kworb's projections are normally pretty good, but once in a while something gets missed that leads to a headscratcher.  

Perhaps Del Ray sold a bunch of copies in an outlet that he doesn't use in his projections?

Interesting.. Only 25% of her fans used iTunes to buy that song? Are they like an anti-iTunes organization? haha!

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Why are people surprised Drag Me Down dropped so much? It doesnt have a video yet so streaming is handicapped and there was no way it was going to keep its sales up after the stans rushed to buy week 1. I'm surprised it didnt fall farther.

[kanimal]

Aug 17, 2015 14:21:08 GMT -5 House Lannister said:

Aug 17, 2015 13:40:10 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Looks like my skepticism was rightly placed for once. Judging by performance, I'd say it's the music video debut that threw everyone off. Last week was nonindicative of streaming momentum because of it. I was a bit off on radio (CFMF gained 4% and Cheerleader only 3% despite the former having more to begin with), but I knew sales driven by the performance would buffer Cheerleader's decline.

On another note, kworb said 67,000 sales for High by the Beach, while the article lists 248,000. What in the world happened here?

Probably the same thing that happened last week with Cool for the Summer.  Kworb's projections are normally pretty good, but once in a while something gets missed that leads to a headscratcher.  

Perhaps Del Ray sold a bunch of copies in an outlet that he doesn't use in his projections?

So there's actually a chance the Kworb projection WAS on point regarding Demi.  While Billboard hasn't updated the chart position, Republic today reported a cumulative sales figure that is about 10K higher than it would have been if CFTS only sold 51K last week.  Could mean there was a retroactive revision.

[imbondz]

Aug 17, 2015 14:10:52 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Aug 17, 2015 14:06:24 GMT -5 moore746 said:

How often has this happened?

Last time in May of 2014.. Coldplay's "a sky full of stars" roared 43->10 because billboard double counted its sale figure (that week was album week and not only didn't billboard reduce its sale by CMA amount but also doubled that..)
You know..

Noooooo. Is this true? I love that song and was psyched it flew into the top 10 that week. Say it ain't so.


edit...

nevermind. I kept reading and saw Billboards explanation.

[Deleted]

YYYAAAAASSSS at The Hills making top 5 and High By the Beach making a top 10 debut!!!            

[popstop]

Isn't this the time of year when we starting hearing fall promo and release of singles in anticipation of holiday sales? Is there nothing major that could chart outside of Ariana?

Dammit, Adele, release your album NOW.

[Clauss]

Now we got 2 single week #1

UF = 14 weeks = 42.4%
SYA = 12 weeks =36.4%
BB= 1 week = 3%
C= 5 weeks = 15.2%
CFMF= 1 week = 3%

Average is 6.6 weeks at the top so far

[House Lannister]

Aug 17, 2015 14:53:01 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Why are people surprised Drag Me Down dropped so much? It doesnt have a video yet so streaming is handicapped and there was no way it was going to keep its sales up after the stans rushed to buy week 1. I'm surprised it didnt fall farther.

I'm not surprised.  The 8th day of the radio airplay where all songs drop occurred this week.  The lack of a video doesn't help.

Not sure how much further it could have dropped though.  Maybe in the 35-40 range?  That would be similar to She's Kinda Hot which plunged after a solid first week.  1D is more or less an established band by now so I think it'd be immune to having a song drop out of the countdown unlike Soko or Matt McAndrew from that high a position.

I'm aware that 1D had that happen twice with Diana and Midnight Memories in 2013.  But both of those songs were early releases and they went with another song as the first single from the album.  Obviously, Drag Me Down is the first single from this new album.

[Zeebz]

Between "Lean On" and "My Way" moving up and Lana debuting at no. 7 (quite the welcome sight!) this is a fairly solid week. It's one of my favorites in a long time at least and it's wonderful to see some movement near the top.

[Deleted]

Aug 17, 2015 19:06:15 GMT -5 Zeebz said:

Between "Lean On" and "My Way" moving up and Lana debuting at no. 7 (quite the welcome sight!) this is a fairly solid week. It's one of my favorites in a long time at least and it's wonderful to see some movement near the top.

Agreed, but sadly, this will go the same way "West Coast" did last year: debuting very high, falling out very quickly. :(

[Zeebz]

Aug 17, 2015 19:18:55 GMT -5 @jakelmmrs44 said:

Aug 17, 2015 19:06:15 GMT -5 Zeebz said:

Between "Lean On" and "My Way" moving up and Lana debuting at no. 7 (quite the welcome sight!) this is a fairly solid week. It's one of my favorites in a long time at least and it's wonderful to see some movement near the top.

Agreed, but sadly, this will go the same way "West Coast" did last year: debuting very high, falling out very quickly. :(

Maybe so, but regardless it's still nice to see her score another top ten hit, especially when it was so unexpected. :)

[Deleted]

^True, true. Like a church member said to me yesterday, "It's the thought that counts."

[85la]

Any idea as to what this "other outlet" could be from which so many people bought High by the Beach?

I am also very surprised by The Hills' jump into the top 5. It stayed virtually the same on streaming and sales and only a small increase in airplay. I guess it's just a rare, extremely noncompetitive week where that small increase was enough to let it jump from outside the top ten into the top 5! Either that, or along with the Lana thing going on Billboard changed the formula or did some major calculation screw-ups!

[Joe1240]

It looks like "Bad Blood" is done,the song drops 4 spots to #10. Taylor needs to release the music video for "Wildest Dreams" very soon.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Aug 18, 2015 0:46:10 GMT -5 Joe1240 said:

It looks like "Bad Blood" is done,the song drops 4 spots to #10. Taylor needs to release the music video for "Wildest Dreams" very soon.

Yeah.

[Enigma.]

Of course the video will drop on 28th (or thereabouts) to maximise the boost by VMA performance.. She will definitely try to get that 4th #1 single.

[yuh yuh]

I have to say it was veery shocking week. One of the most shocking weeks in recent months.
Never thought that Cheerleader would take it's #1 spot back. But I'm not mad. I love both Cheerleader and Face. Just wish Face would get more weeks at top ;)
Okay Watch Me is horrible and I really hoped Lean On to get #3, and #4 could stay Lean's peak as it fell back to #9 on Itunes :(
The Hills' big jump was also shocking, but as I love that song, I'm happy :)
I'm also happy for Fight Song, cause I was scared that it had its peak in #7.
And then... High by the Beach debuting #7, I never thought it. But it's 1st song from Lana that I love, I'm very very happy! :)
Fetty Wap's both songs rising makes me angry, as I want both to get out of Top10 But I like 679 and I'm waiting for it to come the region.(I'm sure it'll do)
And #10... Bad Blood.. please don't go. Still love it and wished it would have got more weeks at #1...
Also very happy for CFTS and GFY rising. It seems we'll have GFY back in the top10 next week and I would be really happy then! ;)

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Aug 17, 2015 23:10:54 GMT -5 85la said:

Any idea as to what this "other outlet" could be from which so many people bought High by the Beach?

I am also very surprised by The Hills' jump into the top 5. It stayed virtually the same on streaming and sales and only a small increase in airplay. I guess it's just a rare, extremely noncompetitive week where that small increase was enough to let it jump from outside the top ten into the top 5! Either that, or along with the Lana thing going on Billboard changed the formula or did some major calculation screw-ups!

It's unlikely there was another outlet, just that Kworbs number was off for whatever reason, possibly the preorder period. iTunes is about 65-70% of the digital market overall and even higher for individual tracks. There just is another outlet that could move 180k units in its own if only 60k went through iTunes

[HolidayGuy]

Just a note, RE the "eighth day" of airplay- Billboard/BDS doesn't utilize a rolling total like Mediabase does. Therefore, each day's airplay is a fresh total, and the cumulative of the seven days makes up the weekly number. In the end, it all comes out similar (with Mediabase numbers usually higher). Most probably know this, but just thought it was worth mentioning. :)

[rimetm]

www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/2015-08-29

Well, I've been trying to get to the chart but it hasn't been added yet apparently, which is especially odd since it's usually preloaded at around 6-6:30.

[Enigma.]

They must have some issues right now... But oddly the album chart is not up yet either