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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 15, 2015 16:03:15 GMT -5
hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=297670Tuesday, September 15, 2015 1D & 5SOS: IMMODEST PROJECTIONSTwo of Q4’s biggest releases will come from acts in Richard Griffiths’ Modest Management camp: SYCO/Columbia’s One Direction (due 11/13) and Capitol’s 5 Seconds of Summer (10/23). Interestingly, based on preorders, the forecasts for the two albums are remarkably close. U.K. superstars 1D, with what may be their final release as a group (and their first without Zayn Malik) are currently expected to do about 350k first week, while Aussie breakouts 5SOS look like they’ll come in at about 300k. 1D has nurtured 5SOS from the outset, owns a piece of the project and brought them out on tour.
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kanimal
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Post by kanimal on Sept 15, 2015 16:14:15 GMT -5
Had that 11/13 release date been reported before? That puts it head-to-head with Bieber's release.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 15, 2015 18:29:56 GMT -5
^Nope. It's a new date.
I wonder what Justin Bieber's initial estimate is? I would say 350k, but he could he go bigger?
Maybe labels are trying to get albums out before Adele's rumored November release date? Maybe her label is going to put Adele out on Nov. 20?
In the 9/19 Billboard 200 thread, someone commented on YTD album sales. They are now only -3.5%. It's going to get worse because I think we have a weak release schedule as of right now for the 4th Quarter.
No release dates for Kanye West or Drake.
Will Beyonce have an album out in 2015?
The Grammy deadline is 2 weeks from tomorrow.
What acts will release a new single before the deadline? I'm hoping for Adele.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Sept 16, 2015 5:27:51 GMT -5
^Nope. It's a new date. I wonder what Justin Bieber's initial estimate is? I would say 350k, but he could he go bigger? Maybe labels are trying to get albums out before Adele's rumored November release date? Maybe her label is going to put Adele out on Nov. 20? In the 9/19 Billboard 200 thread, someone commented on YTD album sales. They are now only -3.5%. It's going to get worse because I think we have a weak release schedule as of right now for the 4th Quarter. No release dates for Kanye West or Drake. Will Beyonce have an album out in 2015? The Grammy deadline is 2 weeks from tomorrow. What acts will release a new single before the deadline? I'm hoping for Adele. Selena Gomez & Demi Lovato should both have ok to decent performing albums based on single performance so far. Not blockbuster sales but they'll end up in the 200-300 total scanned I'd say. Ariana Grande's new single is out in October, album probably out in November in that case.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Sept 16, 2015 7:09:26 GMT -5
I predicted 5SOS selling AT LEAST 350-400k, but with 300k they could have competition coming from Carrie Underwood. Her last album debuted in the Spring of 2012 with 267k. I was thinking she'd sell around 250k this time around, but she always surprises people with her sales, so you never know!
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 16, 2015 7:22:35 GMT -5
What release schedule says now doesn't really matter.. we all know that a huge act can just drop an album out of nowhere and open with 500k.
I'm also thinking that Ellie Goulding can be a steady seller if the single gets a great response.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 7:50:48 GMT -5
I predicted 5SOS selling AT LEAST 350-400k, but with 300k they could have competition coming from Carrie Underwood. Her last album debuted in the Spring of 2012 with 267k. I was thinking she'd sell around 250k this time around, but she always surprises people with her sales, so you never know! I forgot about Carrie Underwood! She's really the only big Country artist releasing this Fall.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 7:54:55 GMT -5
^Nope. It's a new date. I wonder what Justin Bieber's initial estimate is? I would say 350k, but he could he go bigger? Maybe labels are trying to get albums out before Adele's rumored November release date? Maybe her label is going to put Adele out on Nov. 20? In the 9/19 Billboard 200 thread, someone commented on YTD album sales. They are now only -3.5%. It's going to get worse because I think we have a weak release schedule as of right now for the 4th Quarter. No release dates for Kanye West or Drake. Will Beyonce have an album out in 2015? The Grammy deadline is 2 weeks from tomorrow. What acts will release a new single before the deadline? I'm hoping for Adele. Selena Gomez & Demi Lovato should both have ok to decent performing albums based on single performance so far. Not blockbuster sales but they'll end up in the 200-300 total scanned I'd say. Ariana Grande's new single is out in October, album probably out in November in that case. I guess I'm talking about artists in this thread who will sell over 500k. 2015 YTD: Rank - Estimated 2015 Sales - TITLE - Artist ( Estimated Total Sales ) 01 - 1,543,000 - 1989 - Taylor Swift ( 5,204,000 ) 02 - 1,043,000 - IF YOU'RE READING THIS IT'S TOO LATE - Drake ( 1,043,000 ) 03 - 971,000 - X - Ed Sheeran ( 1,782,000 ) 04 - 873,000 - IN THE LONELY HOUR - Sam Smith ( 2,079,000 ) 05 - 818,000 - TITLE - Meghan Trainor ( 818,000 ) 06 - 811,000 - 50 SHADES OF GREY - Soundtrack ( 811,000 ) 07 - 688,000 - TO PIMP A BUTTERFLY - Kendrick Lamar ( 688,000 ) 08 - 546,000 - AMERICAN BEAUTY/AMERICAN PSYCHO - Fall Out Boy ( 546,000 ) 09 - 522,000 - MONTEVALLO - Sam Hunt ( 736,000 ) 10 - 514,000 - JEKYLL + HYDE - Zac Brown Band ( 514,000 2014 Year End: 01 - 3,661,000 - 1989 - Taylor Swift ( 3,661,000 ) 02 - 3,527,000 - FROZEN - Soundtrack ( 3,864,000 ) 03 - 1,207,000 - IN THE LONELY HOUR - Sam Smith ( 1,207,000 ) 04 - 1,139,000 - THAT'S CHRISTMAS TO ME - Pentatonix ( 1,139,000 ) 05 - 898,000 - GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: AWESOME MIX VOL.1 - Soundtrack ( 898,000 ) 06 - 878,000 - BEYONCÉ - Beyoncé ( 2,180,000 ) 07 - 856,000 - PARTNERS - Barbra Streisand ( 856,000 ) 08 - 841,000 - PURE HEROINE - Lorde ( 1,528,000 ) 09 - 814,000 - FOUR - One Direction ( 814,000 ) 10 - 811,000 - THE OUTSIDERS - Eric Church ( 811,000 ) The Top 6 this year have all sold over 800k.
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YourFaveIsAFlop
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Post by YourFaveIsAFlop on Sept 16, 2015 8:21:05 GMT -5
I don't see anybody except maybe Adele opening over 500 the rest of the year. A surprise hip hop release maybe
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 9:44:53 GMT -5
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Future Captain
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Post by Future Captain on Sept 16, 2015 9:54:09 GMT -5
Ooh, that time many thinks Tay isn't going to pull in 1m? I think 5SOS is going to be closer to 400k than 300k, since even without a hit song, they seemed to be gaining fanbase quite exponentially.
Any guess on Ellie? I'm gonna say around 100k. 150k if OMM is a huge hit.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 16, 2015 10:00:29 GMT -5
I'd guess 150k. SPS an TEA are definitely on her side
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 10:10:50 GMT -5
Mackelmore & Ryan Lewis should also be able to scan 500k+ before the end of the year.
And maybe Lana Del Rey?
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Sept 16, 2015 10:14:01 GMT -5
Just a quick note, of all the artists scheduled for album releases in the final quarter, Carrie Underwood has the biggest selling previous album (1.7 million), and she has the second largest debut week sales (behind only Justin Bieber).
That's based on the list "Hits" has up now, but obviously that will change as we get possible announcements from other big names like Rihanna, Adele, and maybe Beyonce...
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Post by Glove Slap on Sept 16, 2015 10:21:07 GMT -5
With Adele's release and Ed's continued success, we'll likely get more million sellers this year than last. Sam Smith could potentially cross a million from 2015 by the end of the year. I wouldn't count Meghan out either. And then you have Beyonce and Drake who could launch in December and sell a million in time. The Weeknd will likely get there in time too.
Justin Bieber and Carrie Underwood should see very good sales too, but they probably won't cross the million mark till next year.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Sept 16, 2015 10:25:24 GMT -5
Do we know for a fact Adele is releasing an album before the end of the year?
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Sept 16, 2015 10:31:14 GMT -5
Do we know for a fact Adele is releasing an album before the end of the year? It's all but officially confirmed. They've been previewing tracks for people and whittling them down to the final tracklist. HITS had a report around a month ago. THE DUCKS LINE UP: Adele’s album in progress is being mixed at a legendary Hollywood studio, and those who have been permitted to hear it say it’s as brilliant as hoped. It has yet to be determined which of the 20 songs still in play will make the final cut, or whether the album will make it this year; it’s hoped that it will get a pre-Thanksgiving release. Can Adele do 1m in her first week, given the fact that she won’t tirelessly promote it in the Taylor Swift manner? hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=297242If it's in the mixing process, then everything is most likely recorded already.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 10:34:02 GMT -5
A new Beyonce single is rumored to be dropped on Friday! New album?
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 16, 2015 10:39:36 GMT -5
It's the song with Naughty Boy I guess
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 10:48:33 GMT -5
^Ugh. Thanks. Just a feature...
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Post by when the pawn... on Sept 16, 2015 11:16:46 GMT -5
Wouldn't be shocked if someone puts out a surprise release before Oct 1 for Grammy eligibility. With so many open-ended eras, it's possible.
With Ed & Sam, we'll have 4 million sellers. Meghan is very likely with Holiday sales. As long as Adele releases, she'll get there. After that, it's up in the air - The Weeknd and Justin Bieber are good options. Who knows if Kanye West, Rihanna, Beyonce, Drake will release/have big albums. And of course, a random Christmas album or 2 could blow up - who is on tap to put out Holiday music this fall?
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 16, 2015 13:56:28 GMT -5
If we are talking about million sellers w/ TEA & SPS, The Weeknd will definitely do it, it's already 700k.
Also Kendrick.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Sept 16, 2015 14:22:44 GMT -5
I predicted 5SOS selling AT LEAST 350-400k, but with 300k they could have competition coming from Carrie Underwood. Her last album debuted in the Spring of 2012 with 267k. I was thinking she'd sell around 250k this time around, but she always surprises people with her sales, so you never know! I'm still skeptical that she'll clear 200k this time around. I'm optimistically going for 175k and hoping for the best, but we'll see. I could be completely underestimating it. 5SOS will be a tough act for her to top.
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carrieidol1
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Post by carrieidol1 on Sept 16, 2015 15:29:57 GMT -5
I predicted 5SOS selling AT LEAST 350-400k, but with 300k they could have competition coming from Carrie Underwood. Her last album debuted in the Spring of 2012 with 267k. I was thinking she'd sell around 250k this time around, but she always surprises people with her sales, so you never know! I'm still skeptical that she'll clear 200k this time around. I'm optimistically going for 175k and hoping for the best, but we'll see. I could be completely underestimating it. 5SOS will be a tough act for her to top. Yeah, I HIGHLY doubt she will, but it isn't impossible. And regarding her debut sales, maybe I'm aiming high with 250k, but she opened in May of 2012 with 267k. This time, although it is three years later, she's releasing closer to the holiday/shopping season. So I don't think 250k is out of the question... How "Smoke Break" is doing, her promo, and overall buzz will have a lot to do with whether or not she can sell 250k, or break 200k. For now, I think 200-250k is a reasonable estimate.
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14887fan
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Post by 14887fan on Sept 16, 2015 15:35:54 GMT -5
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swim
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Post by swim on Sept 16, 2015 20:24:30 GMT -5
Coldplay is another name to throw in before the end of the year. They just shot a music video in India.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 16, 2015 20:57:56 GMT -5
If we are talking about million sellers w/ TEA & SPS, The Weeknd will definitely do it, it's already 700k. Also Kendrick. We are talking about pure album sales. Totals with TEA/SPS are just mentioned once in a while by HITS. Only SoundScan is tracking those totals. We will get them in the year-end press release. Billboard still gives pure album sales totals.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 17, 2015 0:37:52 GMT -5
But then industry can't really expect great amount of million sellers anyway because purchasing individual album is in decline.
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Post by areyoureadytojump on Sept 17, 2015 6:43:03 GMT -5
^It's only down 3.5%:
ALBUMS WEEK 37
albums selling over 2,000,000 - this year - 0 / last year - 1 albums selling over 1,000,000 - this year - 2 / last year - 1 albums selling over 500,000 - this year - 11 / last year - 12 albums selling over 250,000 - this year - 37 / last year - 39
Digital tracks are in a bigger decline.
Luke Bryan should also sell 1 million in 2015.
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Enigma.
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Post by Enigma. on Sept 17, 2015 14:16:40 GMT -5
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