Predict the peaks - September 2015

[Deleted]

[ ] Rum Is The Reason - Toby Keith
[ ] Crazy Over Me - Dylan Scott
[ ] Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
[ ] Getaway Truck - Aaron Watson
[ ] Mind Reader - Dustin Lynch
[ ] Next Boyfriend - Lauren Alaina
[ ] When I’m Gone - Craig Morgan
[ ] Freaks Like Me - Joe Nichols
[ ] Kids With Cars - Dallas Smith
[ ] Head Over Boots - Jon Pardi
[ ] I Like The Sound Of That - Rascal Flatts
[ ] Southern Belle - Scotty McCreery
[ ] I Met A Girl - William Michael Morgan
[ ] Real Men Love Jesus - Michael Ray
[ ] Better In Boots - Tyler Farr
[ ] Bad For You - Waterloo Revival
[ ] Hole In A Bottle - Canaan Smith
[ ] I Am Invincible - Cassadee Pope
[ ] Stone Cold Sober - Brantley Gilbert
[ ] Beautiful Drug - Zac Brown Band
[ ] Boy & A Girl Thing - Mo Pitney
[ ] Move On - Clare Dunn
[ ] Pain Killer - Little Big Town
[ ] Break Up In A Small Town - Sam Hunt
[ ] Night’s On Fire - David Nail
[ ] Country Nation - Brad Paisley
[ ] Backroad Song - Granger Smith
[ ] Honey, I’m Good. - Andy Grammer & Eli Young Band
[ ] Yup - Easton Corbin
[ ] Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem - Billy Currington
[ ] That Don't Sound Like You - Lee Brice
[ ] Riser - Dierks Bentley
[ ] Blue Bandana - Jerrod Niemann
[ ] We Went - Randy Houser
[ ] Southern Style - Darius Rucker
[ ] (This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial - A Thousand Horses
[ ] Little Bit Of You - Chase Bryant
[ ] Live Forever - The Band Perry
[ ] 21 - Hunter Hayes
[ ] I Got The Boy - Jana Kramer
[ ] I Love This Life - LoCash
[ ] Stay A Little Longer - Brothers Osborne
[ ] Burning House - Cam
[ ] Smoke Break - Carrie Underwood
[ ] Let Me See Ya Girl - Cole Swindell
[ ] Gonna Wanna Tonight - Chase Rice
[ ] Fly - Maddie & Tae
[ ] Lose My Mind - Brett Eldredge

[Daryl the Beryl]

[45 ] Rum Is The Reason - Toby Keith
[55] Crazy Over Me - Dylan Scott
[1 ] Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
[57 ] Getaway Truck - Aaron Watson
[2] Mind Reader - Dustin Lynch
[53 ] Next Boyfriend - Lauren Alaina
[13 ] When I’m Gone - Craig Morgan
[1 ] Freaks Like Me - Joe Nichols
[WNC ] Kids With Cars - Dallas Smith
[11 ] Head Over Boots - Jon Pardi
[31 ] I Like The Sound Of That - Rascal Flatts
[16 ] Southern Belle - Scotty McCreery
[23 ] I Met A Girl - William Michael Morgan
[1 ] Real Men Love Jesus - Michael Ray
[2 ] Better In Boots - Tyler Farr
[31 ] Bad For You - Waterloo Revival
[13 ] Hole In A Bottle - Canaan Smith
[34 ] I Am Invincible - Cassadee Pope
[3 ] Stone Cold Sober - Brantley Gilbert
[1 ] Beautiful Drug - Zac Brown Band
[35 ] Boy & A Girl Thing - Mo Pitney
[42 ] Move On - Clare Dunn
[9 ] Pain Killer - Little Big Town
[1 ] Break Up In A Small Town - Sam Hunt
[16 ] Night’s On Fire - David Nail
[10 ] Country Nation - Brad Paisley
[33 ] Backroad Song - Granger Smith
[31 ] Honey, I’m Good. - Andy Grammer & Eli Young Band
[6 ] Yup - Easton Corbin
[32 (or the position it debuted) ] Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem - Billy Currington
[23 ] That Don't Sound Like You - Lee Brice
[17 ] Riser - Dierks Bentley
[17 ] Blue Bandana - Jerrod Niemann
[4 ] We Went - Randy Houser
[17 ] Southern Style - Darius Rucker
[9 ] (This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial - A Thousand Horses
[16 ] Little Bit Of You - Chase Bryant
[1 ] Live Forever - The Band Perry
[23 ] 21 - Hunter Hayes
[21 ] I Got The Boy - Jana Kramer
[5 ] I Love This Life - LoCash
[13 ] Stay A Little Longer - Brothers Osborne
[2 ] Burning House - Cam
[2 ] Smoke Break - Carrie Underwood
[3 ] Let Me See Ya Girl - Cole Swindell
[5 ] Gonna Wanna Tonight - Chase Rice
[3 ] Fly - Maddie & Tae
[1 ] Lose My Mind - Brett Eldredge

[Deleted]

[48] Rum Is The Reason - Toby Keith
[54] Crazy Over Me - Dylan Scott
[1] Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
[--] Getaway Truck - Aaron Watson
[16] Mind Reader - Dustin Lynch
[53] Next Boyfriend - Lauren Alaina
[--] When I’m Gone - Craig Morgan
[13] Freaks Like Me - Joe Nichols
[--] Kids With Cars - Dallas Smith
[44] Head Over Boots - Jon Pardi
[32] I Like The Sound Of That - Rascal Flatts
[35] Southern Belle - Scotty McCreery
[60] I Met A Girl - William Michael Morgan
[15] Real Men Love Jesus - Michael Ray
[35] Better In Boots - Tyler Farr
[52] Bad For You - Waterloo Revival
[19] Hole In A Bottle - Canaan Smith
[34] I Am Invincible - Cassadee Pope
[1] Stone Cold Sober - Brantley Gilbert
[1] Beautiful Drug - Zac Brown Band
[50] Boy & A Girl Thing - Mo Pitney
[50] Move On - Clare Dunn
[20] Pain Killer - Little Big Town
[1] Break Up In A Small Town - Sam Hunt
[1] Night’s On Fire - David Nail
[7] Country Nation - Brad Paisley
[1] Backroad Song - Granger Smith
[30] Honey, I’m Good. - Andy Grammer & Eli Young Band
[23] Yup - Easton Corbin
[16] Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem - Billy Currington
[28] That Don't Sound Like You - Lee Brice
[15] Riser - Dierks Bentley
[20] Blue Bandana - Jerrod Niemann
[1] We Went - Randy Houser
[25] Southern Style - Darius Rucker
[1] (This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial - A Thousand Horses
[18] Little Bit Of You - Chase Bryant
[1] Live Forever - The Band Perry
[3] 21 - Hunter Hayes
[15] I Got The Boy - Jana Kramer
[4] I Love This Life - LoCash
[1] Stay A Little Longer - Brothers Osborne
[9] Burning House - Cam
[1] Smoke Break - Carrie Underwood
[1] Let Me See Ya Girl - Cole Swindell
[1] Gonna Wanna Tonight - Chase Rice
[2] Fly - Maddie & Tae
[1] Lose My Mind - Brett Eldredge

*We may be entering another rough patch of weeks on the chart, with a lot of songs getting lost in the shuffle like we saw last spring when all the labels rushed to send as many songs as they could for adds right after Country Radio Seminar.

*I don't expect Aaron Watson, Craig Morgan, or Dallas Smith to make the chart with their new singles. Thirty Tigers is still quite new at radio promo and they're pushing a traditional-leaning song from an artist who hasn't established any radio momentum yet. Black River's broken through recently with Kelsea Ballerini but they've yet to replicate that success with any of their other artists, so it's unlikely they can do much for an artist who's basically on the way out the door and hasn't seen the Top 50 in a year and a half. Dallas Smith's on Big Loud Mountain, which was speculated to benefit from having former iHeartMedia executive Clay Hunnicut on its team, but Dallas' song didn't receive a very impressive number of first-week adds and frankly it just doesn't sound good, so I'm not betting on seeing Dallas make the chart with KWC.

*50s casualites include Dylan Scott, Lauren Alaina, Waterloo Revival, Mo Pitney, and Clare Dunn. Scott may benefit from releasing his first single on Curb proper and early iTunes sales are promising, but Curb just doesn't seem to have the resources to break a new artist that isn't already generating an exceptional amount of buzz. Mo Pitney's off to a strong start, but his song is definitely a tough sell for country radio so I see it hitting a ceiling very soon and not making it past light rotation on most radio stations. Clare Dunn and Lauren Alaina may also generate some hype with their singles, but I don't see either as a having the potential to break that other new females have. Waterloo Revival has been one of the least buzz-worthy new acts on a major label all year, so it's unlikely BFY will do much more than HTR on the charts.

*Jon Pardi's garnered an impressive number of first-week adds with "Head over Boots" but there's not much room for his traditional style of music on today's mainstream country radio, so I put him down for a #44 peak. Toby may also reach the 40s, as his new single is both vintage Toby and good modern-day radio fodder. Show-Dog is a poor label, but they should be able to invest in a chart run long enough to get Toby's album in stores and see his single crack the Top 50.

*Newcomers Scotty McCreery and Cassadee Pope have built up strong fan bases, but both may fall victim to crowded charts and fizzle out in the 30s. Tyler Farr's released a pretty crappy follow-up to "Withdrawals" and he's lost all his radio momentum, so a #35 peak is about all I can see in his future. Rascal Flatts' radio days are just about over, they've lost all their radio momentum after two singles failed to reach the teens on the charts, and they're releasing a fourth single at a pretty bad time, so a 30s peak may also be in their future. The country remix of "Honey, I'm Good." may scrape the Top 30 if Valory is invested in a long chart run, but its highly polarizing research scores suggest it'll have trouble getting past a relatively low ceiling on the charts.

*As many new acts have broken through lately, a lot of the older B-list artists have had trouble cementing their place on country radio. Darius Rucker, Easton Corbin, and Lee Brice are all B-list artists who are having trouble moving up the charts this time around after seeing their last singles peak in the Top 5. All three may end up peaking in the 20s with their current radio efforts. Jerrod Niemann's god-awful "Blue Bandana" has somehow had a really hyped up start at country radio, even though there's no buzz around it among listeners. Unfortunately, I think Arista will stretch out this song's chart run for many months until Jerrod scrapes the Top 20, although there's just not much demand for Jerrod Niemann and I don't think he'll see high album sales or a long radio career. Little Big Town's "Pain Killer" follows up the biggest country hit of 2015, but it may have polarizing research scores and struggle to get past the #20 mark.

*Dustin Lynch, Canaan Smith, Michael Ray, Billy Currington, and Dierks Bentley are all following up #1 hits with considerably weaker material that just isn't of a high enough caliber to reach the Top 10 on the charts, so I put each of these down for a peak in the teens. Chase Bryant may once again see a chart run that does not accurately reflect his low consumer interest as Red Bow pushes and shoves its way to a Top 20 peak for "Little Bit of You." Jana Kramer's situation is the opposite of Chase's, as her song is selling quite well and she may see a strong album opening, but bad research may keep "I Got the Boy" out of the Top 10. Joe Nichols may have a tough time weathering the crowded release schedule, but after a long, painstaking chart run I don't see why he can't get a radio-friendly lead single into the Top 15.

*Top 10 peaks come from Brad Paisley, LoCash, Hunter Hayes, Cam, and Maddie & Tae. "Country Nation" is tailor-made for radio, but it's just incredibly boring and may not invoke much listener passion. Arista will probably do their usual shenanigans of forcing a struggling Brad Paisley record well past its natural peak in the teens. LoCash's song is great for radio and has got several things working in its favor, including added momentum from Reviver finally adding a radio promo team, support from the Bobby Bones Show, and a strong showing on iTunes and the Callout charts. A Top 5 peak would be a great accomplishment for LoCash next spring, as the duo's never seen the Top 30 before. Cam's "Burning House" is the epitome of an immensely popular song that is a tough fit for radio and may hit a ceiling just outside or just inside the Top 10. "21" may also sleep its way into the Top 5 and possibly achieve a Mediabase-only #1. Maddie & Tae's "Fly" may end up peaking at #2 behind Luke Bryan's "Strip It Down."

*Predicted #1 songs include shoo-ins like "Beautiful Drug," "Smoke Break," "Live Forever," and "Break Up in a Small Town," tougher sells that may surprise us like "Die a Happy Man" and "Stone Cold Sober," and sleeper hits like "We Went," "Drunk Dial," "Night's on Fire," "Stay a Little Longer," and "Gonna Wanna Tonight." Brett Eldredge and Cole Swindell may take some pushing in the Top 5 but I expect both to take their current hits all the way to #1. And of course newcomer Granger Smith has been predicted as the next iHeartRadio On the Verge artist, but even if "Backroad Song" doesn't receive this treatment I expect it'll have an easy time finding its way to #1 next year.

[sabre14]

We've already has "Fly" and "Gonna Wanna Tonight" in the February Predict the Peaks thread. :)

[53] Rum Is The Reason - Toby Keith
[-] Crazy Over Me - Dylan Scott
[2] Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
[55] Getaway Truck - Aaron Watson
[5] Mind Reader - Dustin Lynch
[32] Next Boyfriend - Lauren Alaina
[37] When I’m Gone - Craig Morgan
[9] Freaks Like Me - Joe Nichols
[55] Kids With Cars - Dallas Smith
[18] Head Over Boots - Jon Pardi
[29] I Like The Sound Of That - Rascal Flatts
[26] Southern Belle - Scotty McCreery
[39] I Met A Girl - William Michael Morgan
[22] Real Men Love Jesus - Michael Ray
[34] Better In Boots - Tyler Farr
[33] Bad For You - Waterloo Revival
[14] Hole In A Bottle - Canaan Smith
[43] I Am Invincible - Cassadee Pope
[19] Stone Cold Sober - Brantley Gilbert
[1] Beautiful Drug - Zac Brown Band
[27] Boy & A Girl Thing - Mo Pitney
[42] Move On - Clare Dunn
[2] Pain Killer - Little Big Town
[1] Break Up In A Small Town - Sam Hunt
[15] Night’s On Fire - David Nail
[6] Country Nation - Brad Paisley
[2] Backroad Song - Granger Smith
[32] Honey, I’m Good. - Andy Grammer & Eli Young Band
[11] Yup - Easton Corbin
[17] Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem - Billy Currington
[14] That Don't Sound Like You - Lee Brice
[12] Riser - Dierks Bentley
[9] Blue Bandana - Jerrod Niemann
[2] We Went - Randy Houser
[25] Southern Style - Darius Rucker
[3] (This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial - A Thousand Horses
[22] Little Bit Of You - Chase Bryant
[15] Live Forever - The Band Perry
[20] 21 - Hunter Hayes
[22] I Got The Boy - Jana Kramer
[2] I Love This Life - LoCash
[1] Stay A Little Longer - Brothers Osborne
[7] Burning House - Cam
[1] Smoke Break - Carrie Underwood
[1] Let Me See Ya Girl - Cole Swindell
[3] Gonna Wanna Tonight - Chase Rice
[2] Fly - Maddie & Tae
[1] Lose My Mind - Brett Eldredge

Haven't heard Thomas' or Lauren's yet but I made a guess anyway. :)

[Deleted]

^Oh, yes, we did have a few of these back in February...I just figured now that they're getting closer to #1 some predictions might change as we get a better idea of how close to #1 they'll get. I would've never imagined Maddie & Tae going Top 5 with "Fly" but now it looks like they may come pretty close to #1, as will Chase after GWT spent eight months looking like it could peak any week.

Hope I didn't break a rule by including two songs for which we don't have a studio version yet. Live versions of DAHM and NB are available online, but I do realize that production can have a huge impact on how well a song does.

[sabre14]

Sept 16, 2015 15:05:41 GMT -5 @daydrinker said:

Hope I didn't break a rule by including two songs for which we don't have a studio version yet. Live versions of DAHM and NB are available online, but I do realize that production can have a huge impact on how well a song does.

I don't think there's any rule for including songs without studio versions yet (both will be available very shortly anyway). You can get a good gauge for how a song will perform if you factor in the artist, the label and their momentum.

I'm a little surprised you see "21" climbing all the way to #3.

[Deleted]

^That one really could go either way. It's good radio fodder so if there ends up being a void of hits at some point I could see it being used as a filler, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it end up like Hunter's past two singles and just scrape the Top 20. I'm actually surprised it's not doing "that" bad in research. Hunter will always have a pretty big male-female disparity when it comes to research but this one doesn't seem to be getting the sort of high negatives that "Invisible" got.

[someguy]

[52 ] Rum Is The Reason - Toby Keith
[won't chart] Crazy Over Me - Dylan Scott
[1] Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
[53] Getaway Truck - Aaron Watson
[14] Mind Reader - Dustin Lynch
[55] Next Boyfriend - Lauren Alaina
[42] When I’m Gone - Craig Morgan
[8] Freaks Like Me - Joe Nichols
[won't chart] Kids With Cars - Dallas Smith
[11] Head Over Boots - Jon Pardi
[24] I Like The Sound Of That - Rascal Flatts
[12] Southern Belle - Scotty McCreery
[47] I Met A Girl - William Michael Morgan
[6] Real Men Love Jesus - Michael Ray
[33] Better In Boots - Tyler Farr
[31] Bad For You - Waterloo Revival
[15] Hole In A Bottle - Canaan Smith
[21] I Am Invincible - Cassadee Pope
[8] Stone Cold Sober - Brantley Gilbert
[1] Beautiful Drug - Zac Brown Band
[27] Boy & A Girl Thing - Mo Pitney
[42] Move On - Clare Dunn
[1] Pain Killer - Little Big Town
[1] Break Up In A Small Town - Sam Hunt
[18] Night’s On Fire - David Nail
[10] Country Nation - Brad Paisley
[1] Backroad Song - Granger Smith
[17] Honey, I’m Good. - Andy Grammer & Eli Young Band
[14] Yup - Easton Corbin
[29] Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem - Billy Currington
[14] That Don't Sound Like You - Lee Brice
[18] Riser - Dierks Bentley
[16] Blue Bandana - Jerrod Niemann
[24] We Went - Randy Houser
[28] Southern Style - Darius Rucker
[1] (This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial - A Thousand Horses
[14] Little Bit Of You - Chase Bryant
[1] Live Forever - The Band Perry
[19] 21 - Hunter Hayes
[22] I Got The Boy - Jana Kramer
[19] I Love This Life - LoCash
[4] Stay A Little Longer - Brothers Osborne
[7] Burning House - Cam
[1] Smoke Break - Carrie Underwood
[1] Let Me See Ya Girl - Cole Swindell
[6] Gonna Wanna Tonight - Chase Rice
[3] Fly - Maddie & Tae
[1] Lose My Mind - Brett Eldredge

[.indulgecountry]

[48] Rum Is The Reason - Toby Keith
[41] Crazy Over Me - Dylan Scott
[1] Die A Happy Man - Thomas Rhett
[52] Getaway Truck - Aaron Watson
[1] Mind Reader - Dustin Lynch
[18] Next Boyfriend - Lauren Alaina
[28] When I’m Gone - Craig Morgan
[1] Freaks Like Me - Joe Nichols
[46] Kids With Cars - Dallas Smith
[27] Head Over Boots - Jon Pardi
[15] I Like The Sound Of That - Rascal Flatts
[1] Southern Belle - Scotty McCreery
[24] I Met A Girl - William Michael Morgan
[1] Real Men Love Jesus - Michael Ray
[30] Better In Boots - Tyler Farr
[45] Bad For You - Waterloo Revival
[3] Hole In A Bottle - Canaan Smith
[16] I Am Invincible - Cassadee Pope
[1] Stone Cold Sober - Brantley Gilbert
[2] Beautiful Drug - Zac Brown Band
[25] Boy & A Girl Thing - Mo Pitney
[22] Move On - Clare Dunn
[1] Pain Killer - Little Big Town
[1] Break Up In A Small Town - Sam Hunt
[1] Night’s On Fire - David Nail
[1] Country Nation - Brad Paisley
[1] Backroad Song - Granger Smith
[35] Honey, I’m Good. - Andy Grammer & Eli Young Band
[5] Yup - Easton Corbin
[9] Drinkin’ Town With A Football Problem - Billy Currington
[13] That Don't Sound Like You - Lee Brice
[6] Riser - Dierks Bentley
[26] Blue Bandana - Jerrod Niemann
[2] We Went - Randy Houser
[15] Southern Style - Darius Rucker
[16] (This Ain’t No) Drunk Dial - A Thousand Horses
[7] Little Bit Of You - Chase Bryant
[8] Live Forever - The Band Perry
[18] 21 - Hunter Hayes
[15] I Got The Boy - Jana Kramer
[10] I Love This Life - LoCash
[1] Stay A Little Longer - Brothers Osborne
[1] Burning House - Cam
[1] Smoke Break - Carrie Underwood
[2] Let Me See Ya Girl - Cole Swindell
[4] Gonna Wanna Tonight - Chase Rice
[1] Fly - Maddie & Tae
[1] Lose My Mind - Brett Eldredge

[sabre14]

.indulgecountry "I Like The Sound Of That" debuted at #40 on Billboard Airplay this week and has gotten 65 adds the past two weeks with the help of the Cumulus Block. It could definitely stall but I think a #32 peak is really pessimistic at this point. I guessed #29 but that was before I realized what had transpired, lol

[.indulgecountry]

Sept 22, 2015 20:06:50 GMT -5 sabre14 said:

.indulgecountry "I Like The Sound Of That" debuted at #40 on Billboard Airplay this week and has gotten 65 adds the past two weeks with the help of the Cumulus Block. It could definitely stall but I think a #32 peak is really pessimistic at this point. I guessed #29 but that was before I realized what had transpired, lol

Oh I had that open in another tab for like 5 days and I just finally finished it, lmao. I didn't notice that but I will definitely have to change that now that I've seen how it debuted. Thanks.