Billboard Hot 100: 11/07/2015

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2015 15:09:04 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Oct 23, 2015 14:53:44 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

Thank you.  It's totally not even a question at this point, mathematically speaking.  Not to sound whatever, but I'm a chart nerd who tracks weekly Hot 100 point totals.  I have many points of reference.   There's no way Hotline Bling will have more points than Adele in the tracking week that started today.  Not with the massive multi-format airplay it's going to have, massive sales... and then add in streaming for good measure.  Slam dunk.

Yep. Adele will have the full airplay, digital sales, and streams(streams won't even matter cause the digital/airplay will be massive) for next week domination.

Even if HALF the current iTunes sales are individual track sales... she's still looking good.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out though, in terms of numbers.  I love weeks like this... but I hate the waiting part.

[wjr15]

The next few weeks on the Hot 100 are gonna be very exciting to watch. Makes up for a mostly boring 2015

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2015 15:19:47 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

The next few weeks on the Hot 100 are gonna be very exciting to watch. Makes up for a mostly boring 2015

Of course it's right at the tail end of the chart year, too.  That kinda sucks when I look at it that way.  But exciting nonetheless. 

[HolidayGuy]

I haven't read or heard anything about instant-grat "sales" not being accounted for in the pop-bars info. It would make sense for it to be that way- I mean, if they can weed out and not report the pre-order instant grats, why can't it not have them be part of the pop bars?

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2015 15:41:38 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I haven't read or heard anything about instant-grat "sales" not being accounted for in the pop-bars info. It would make sense for it to be that way- I mean, if they can weed out and not report the pre-order instant grats, why can't it not have them be part of the pop bars?

I think because - as far as iTunes is concerned - you're charged for the single so it counts to them as a track sale for now.  

But then it gets messy because it's also counted as an album sale on the top albums chart even though you don't actually pay for it... and may never.   

Makes me crazy.  But its really just supposed to reflect what is hot, so for that reason, i get why they do it the way they do it.

[areyoureadytojump]

Oct 23, 2015 14:11:32 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Can we just say that ADELE is the true iTunes queen? She's Justin Beiber at less than 30%, thats pretty fantastic. But um where did 700k come from?

700k is someone's "guesstimate."

Don't believe any figures until Billboard or HITS report them.

We all know Billboard will have numerous articles talking about Adele's chances of hitting #1 on the Hot 100.

And what do you mean by "true iTunes queen"? Why do we have to give out titles?

Some fool at UKMix said Gwen Stefani is the "Queen of Pop" (even though she hasn't has a Pop hit since 2007) and that her snew song was going #1. Hello!

[jenglisbe]

Oct 23, 2015 15:47:30 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

Oct 23, 2015 15:41:38 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

I haven't read or heard anything about instant-grat "sales" not being accounted for in the pop-bars info. It would make sense for it to be that way- I mean, if they can weed out and not report the pre-order instant grats, why can't it not have them be part of the pop bars?

I think because - as far as iTunes is concerned - you're charged for the single so it counts to them as a track sale for now.  

But then it gets messy because it's also counted as an album sale on the top albums chart even though you don't actually pay for it... and may never.   

Makes me crazy.  But its really just supposed to reflect what is hot, so for that reason, i get why they do it the way they do it.

Carrie Underwood's "Heartbeat" was recently charting fairly high in iTunes due to the pre-sale. How did its bars and other things go?

[badrobot]

It only counts as an "instant grat " if people purchased the full album and got the single because of that. I would guess that most people are not pre ordering the whole album. Also, it feels fuzzy to me -- the instant grat rule seemed aimed at songs that only became available AFTER a pre order, I wonder if it even applies in this case.

[forg]

yay to upcoming exciting chart action

[The Upper Hand]

She will definitely hit #1 on the Hot 100 next week. The real question is whether she is debuting this week.

[ry4n]

But the excitement will only last like two weeks. We're just going to be replacing a series of songs that have been dominating the top 3 for the past few months with... a different series of songs that will dominate the top 3 for the next few months.

[House Lannister]

Oct 23, 2015 15:17:08 GMT -5 josh said:

I thought iTunes stopped showing the effect of instant grats on the pop bars, only sales from purchasing just the song affects the pop bars? I could be wrong, or it could just be a rumor, I'm not sure.

So rumour has it, eh?

But seriously, I agree that Drake should have his number 1 next week and Adele has probably the week after.  How Billboard labels those sales will be the question.  I'd think any talk of numbers is a bit premature right now, although I'd argue the floor is around 400k right now.

Better question is how Ariana and Justin affect things two-three weeks from now.  If Sorry is much like What Do You Mean/Where Are U Now, then he might have something to say about who is on top.  And as for Ariana, will Focus finally bring her her first number one?  Or will some of her extracurricular activities cost her?  I think it all depends on the single and how it sounds.

[musicrocks]

Oct 23, 2015 14:53:44 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

Oct 23, 2015 14:22:39 GMT -5 wavey. said:

She has it the week after. Drake has it this Monday.

Thank you.  It's totally not even a question at this point, mathematically speaking.  Not to sound whatever, but I'm a chart nerd who tracks weekly Hot 100 point totals.  I have many points of reference.   There's no way Hotline Bling will have more points than Adele in the tracking week that started today.  Not with the massive multi-format airplay it's going to have, massive sales... and then add in streaming for good measure.  Slam dunk.

Good point. If her sales were to trail off and say Drake went back to #1, I thought a chance that she might not. But with everything culminating at once like you said, it should be easily her week next week. And she'll probablyhave a sizable lead this whole week anyway. I should know better to doubt the power of Adele lol

[KeepDeanWeird]

I'm so glad I was oh so wrong about Hello based on the snippet from XF (and my dislike of SLY) - a spectacular release and video - it reaffirms there is room for great songwriting and breathtaking vocals on their own merit. (And not a slam to any other artist). ADELE is unique and I look forward to hearing the rest of 25. Just don't make me wait 5 more years for another album, please. :)

[SPRΞΞ]

Oct 23, 2015 15:17:08 GMT -5 josh said:

I thought iTunes stopped showing the effect of instant grats on the pop bars, only sales from purchasing just the song affects the pop bars? I could be wrong, or it could just be a rumor, I'm not sure.

They do, that's why we see those random drastic falls. I think that's when they are removing the instant grats. There would be no other way to explain it.

[Deleted]

Middle America and soccer mums will never run faster to their computers than when a new cookbook, minivan or a Adele single is released. Adele is beastin'

[carreramd]

In which position Perfect should debut?

[carreramd]

I believe that Confident, Break Up With Him and Perfect will enter the top 50, and Earned It, Flex and Bad Blood will leave the chart.

[areyoureadytojump]

ADELE: Hello: 24.499 (+ 24.424)

[jenglisbe]

I'm reading the video had over 25 million views in day one?!?! What would it need to go ahead and debut at #1 based on 3 days of airplay and streaming?

[Mikel Echarri]

Oct 24, 2015 9:24:48 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

I'm reading the video had over 25 million views in day one?!?! What would it need to go ahead and debut at #1 based on 3 days of airplay and streaming?

The streaming tracking period is Friday-Thursday, this week only counts the airplay 

[areyoureadytojump]

UKMix:

Kworb early estimates :

1. Hello 1,031,000
2. Sorry 242,000
3. Hotline Bling 168,000
4. The Hills 89,000
5. Home 78,000
6. What Do You Mean? 74,000
7. Ex's & Oh's 74,000
8. Wildest Dreams 71,000
9. Stitches 70,000
10. Perfect 70,000
11. Downtown 70,000

Will obviously decrease by the end of the week especially since the prediction includes instant grats which Billboard doesn't count

and...

SIO was predicted to sell 700k+ in the early predictions and ended up selling 544k

[Future Captain]

Oct 24, 2015 10:12:54 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

UKMix:

Kworb early predictions :

1. Hello 1,031,000
2. Sorry 242,000
3. Hotline Bling 168,000
4. The Hills 89,000
5. Home 78,000
6. What Do You Mean? 74,000
7. Ex's & Oh's 74,000
8. Wildest Dreams 71,000
9. Stitches 70,000
10. Perfect 70,000
11. Downtown 70,000

Will obviously decrease by the end of the week especially since the prediction includes instant grats which Billboard doesn't count

and...

SIO was predicted to sell 700k+ in the early predictions and ended up selling 544k

1 million tho.

[The Upper Hand]

Ok, thanks for the info. Let me just

[areyoureadytojump]

^^Just an estimate. NOT fact.

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/6738449/radio-on-adele-hello-she-can-make-you-feel-what-she-feels

Radio on Adele's 'Hello': 'She Can Make You Feel What She Feels'
By Gary Trust | October 24, 2015

In its first day, 'Hello' was the fourth-most-heard song on U.S. radio.

Adele's new single "Hello" arrived at radio at 2:30 a.m. eastern on Friday, Oct. 23. By morning-drive, it was already blasting to listeners nationwide. The superstar also checked in (by phone from England) with multiple interviews, including Elvis Duran and the Morning Show, syndicated from its home base at WHTZ (Z100) New York.

"I was so frightened that no one cared," Adele told Duran. Her fears were entirely unfounded.

In its first day of play, radio gave Adele's new music an incredibly enthusiastic hello. Co-written by Adele and Greg Kurstin, and produced by the latter (who also plays bass, guitar, piano and keyboards, with Adele even credited as a drummer), the ballad and first single from her third Columbia Records studio album, 25, due Nov. 20, immediately went into radio rotation. (Among other hits, Kurstin co-wrote Kelly Clarkson's three-week Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 "Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)" and P!nk's No. 5-peaking "Blow Me (One Last Kiss)," both hits in 2012.)

According to Nielsen Music, "Hello" drew 1,736 plays Friday, translating to 17.5 million in all-format U.S. audience, making it the fourth-most-heard song on radio. (Many iHeartMedia-owned stations at the pop, adult pop and adult contemporary formats played the song hourly for most of the day.)

While the airplay speaks for itself, radio's decision-makers still have plenty to say about the initial preview of Adele's first album since 2011's 21, which has sold 11.2 million copies in the U.S., making it the 10th best-selling set since Nielsen Music began tracking sales in 1991. (In 2012, Adele reached No. 8 on the Hot 100 with her James Bond soundtrack single "Skyfall.")

[slw84]

Adele setting fire to our faves...

I can't believe the video has so many views and I'm glad the song is taking off. I'm not going to lie...it's not my favorite single released so far but it's almost better than every song released this year.

[Deleted]

Oct 23, 2015 20:02:25 GMT -5 badrobot said:

It only counts as an "instant grat " if people purchased the full album and got the single because of that. I would guess that most people are not pre ordering the whole album. Also, it feels fuzzy to me -- the instant grat rule seemed aimed at songs that only became available AFTER a pre order, I wonder if it even applies in this case.

Not sure if you saw this on the previous page, but it specifically says tracks prior to the album release... because that's the only time a pre-order instant grat exists!  Am I misunderstanding your fuzziness?

Effective Friday, October 10th, 2014, iTunes sales reported to Nielsen SoundScan will no longer include instant gratification tracks delivered prior to the release of an album when the consumer purchases the entire album. The purchase of the album, as an individual transaction, will be counted when the complete project has been delivered upon album release. Individual tracks purchases will still be counted at the time of purchase and returned at the time the consumer decides to “Complete My Album”.

www.thatericalper.com/2014/09/18/itunes-reporting-methodology-change-impacting-nielsen-soundscan-u-s-canada/

[Deleted]

^ That said.. I think there's a ton of the younger demo that are buying the single, not pre-ordering.... and I'd even go so far as to say MOST people are buying the single, not pre-ordering. So instant-grat or not, Hello is going to have a huge sales total this week.

[THINKIN BOUT YOU]

Oct 24, 2015 10:12:54 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

UKMix:

Kworb early estimates :

1. Hello 1,031,000
2. Sorry 242,000
3. Hotline Bling 168,000
4. The Hills 89,000
5. Home 78,000
6. What Do You Mean? 74,000
7. Ex's & Oh's 74,000
8. Wildest Dreams 71,000
9. Stitches 70,000
10. Perfect 70,000
11. Downtown 70,000

Will obviously decrease by the end of the week especially since the prediction includes instant grats which Billboard doesn't count

and...

SIO was predicted to sell 700k+ in the early predictions and ended up selling 544k

Where's Die A Happy Man? It OBVIOUSLY will make top 10

[jtd Thee Stallion]

Oct 24, 2015 12:25:35 GMT -5 THINKIN BOUT YOU said:

Oct 24, 2015 10:12:54 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

UKMix:

Kworb early estimates :

1. Hello 1,031,000
2. Sorry 242,000
3. Hotline Bling 168,000
4. The Hills 89,000
5. Home 78,000
6. What Do You Mean? 74,000
7. Ex's & Oh's 74,000
8. Wildest Dreams 71,000
9. Stitches 70,000
10. Perfect 70,000
11. Downtown 70,000

Will obviously decrease by the end of the week especially since the prediction includes instant grats which Billboard doesn't count

and...

SIO was predicted to sell 700k+ in the early predictions and ended up selling 544k

Where's Die A Happy Man? It OBVIOUSLY will make top 10

Not necessarily because if Downtown has 70k with it's two versions in the top 45 and it's #10 then Die A Happy Man will definetly be behind it.