Billboard Hot 100 : 12/05/2015

[Daniel Collins]

Mediabase 11/17/15

1. ADELE - Hello: 180.111 (+ 6.048) ▲
2. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 175.212 (+ 0.974) ▼
3. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 162.332 (- 2.067)
4. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 147.380 (- 3.382)
5. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 147.265 (+ 0.023)
6. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 132.393 (- 0.067)
7. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 125.862 (+ 0.422)
8. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 108.047 (+ 0.930)
9. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 101.153 (+ 1.606) ▲
10. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 100.312 (- 1.567) ▼

11. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 87.425 (+ 0.808) ▲
12. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 87.037 (- 0.479) ▼
13. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 80.428 (- 1.651)
14. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 74.914 (+ 0.804)
15. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 72.006 (- 0.690)
16. CHRIS YOUNG - I'm Comin' Over: 67.502 (+ 0.410)
17. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 66.918 (+ 1.845) ▲
18. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 65.353 (+ 0.625) ▲
19. COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 64.414 (- 1.128) ▼
20. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 62.475 (- 0.929)

DAN + SHAY - Nothin' Like You: 61.246 (+ 0.374)
BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 60.499 (+ 0.777)
ARIANA GRANDE - Focus: 53.163 (+ 0.738)
RUDIMENTAL - Lay It All On Me f/Ed Sheeran: 45.043 (+ 0.511)
DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 42.982 (- 0.002)
THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 38.797 (+ 0.913)
ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 23.268 (+ 0.837)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 21.090 (+ 0.101)
THE WEEKND - In The Night: 20.029 (+ 2.912)
CHRIS BROWN - Zero: 19.208 (+ 0.518)
COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 18.883 (+ 0.879)
GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 16.351 (+ 0.707)
FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 12.630 (+ 0.416)
MISSY ELLIOTT - WTF (Where They From): 8.188 (+ 0.861)

[Dylan :)]

Wow, Ellie might be #10 next week if it can stay ahead of Same Old Love!

[velaxti]

Does anyone think Billboard will change the Hot 100 formula this week? They did in 2013 and 2014, so I think they might.

Apparently the formula now works out to about 20% sales, 30% airplay and 50% streaming, so Billboard might change it so it's about 25/30/45 or 30/30/40.

I personally don't think it's necessary to change the formula, but I can see why they would.

[Deleted]

Daniel Collins, what's the radio record? I think Adele could break it at this rate.

[Deleted]

Got a little question regarding tracking periods in luau of the upcoming Leap Year:

It won't happen in 2016 (since the opening weekend will be December 5), but should a tracking period last 53 weeks, does Billboard include all 53 weeks, do they exclude one week, or do they do something to even a 53 week year with a 52 week year? Don't laugh at my question, I'm just asking.

[divasummer]

I wish Billboard would do just a full regular year for their tracking period. Jan 1st to Dec. 31st.
It's not like people are flying to the stores to get their year end issue anymore.

[Rose "Payola" Nylund]

December is the month everyone (and everything, newspapers, tv shows, etc) reflects on the year about to end. While it makes sense to do it by calendar year, in a social sense, it doesn't because by the time January starts, everyone's focus is on the new year. In a media sense, it's about making it news when people want/expect it. Nobody cares come January.

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 12:28:45 GMT -5 Rose "Payola" Nylund said:

December is the month everyone (and everything, newspapers, tv shows, etc) reflects on the year about to end. While it makes sense to do it by calendar year, in a social sense, it doesn't because by the time January starts, everyone's focus is on the new year. In a media sense, it's about making it news when people want/expect it. Nobody cares come January.

This. And this is exactly why my tracking period goes from December to November for my PC, so that I can present the best of that year before the year is out. Yet here, a lot of people follow the calendar year method. Is it because everyone else does it, does time not matter here, or do we not like Billboard's method?

[surfy]

I use the December to November period too.

[ry4n]

Accuracy >>

I find it completely nonsensical to have the list of "biggest songs of Year X" when it includes 6 weeks from the previous year. Most other countries use the calendar year for their year end charts..

But, then, this is the same publication that doesn't even use the same tracking week for airplay and sales..

[rimetm]

To add my voice to the ring, I use the chart year for my chart as well. In fact, I was just announcing the results these past few days.

Anyway, what songs will go top 40 this week? I'm thinking:

Where They From (35-20)
Love Yourself (40-30)
Break Up in a Small Town (40-36)
I'm Comin' Over (40-30)
Bet You Can't Do it Like Me (?????)
Lay it All on Me (45-40)
Don't (50-30, really don't know its momentum)

[KeepDeanWeird]

Nov 17, 2015 8:57:17 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Does anyone think Billboard will change the Hot 100 formula this week? They did in 2013 and 2014, so I think they might.

Apparently the formula now works out to about 20% sales, 30% airplay and 50% streaming, so Billboard might change it so it's about 25/30/45 or 30/30/40.

I personally don't think it's necessary to change the formula, but I can see why they would.

I was thinking the same thing. I think Billboard will adjust streaming a bit (even though I think they need to break streaming into active and passive). The charts have become way too stagnant because of streaming play that it keeping songs in the Top 50 long after the passed on both radio and sales. Nothing against Fetty Wap - but Trap Queen moving up to 22 when it's not in Top 100 airplay and barely scraping Top 100 in sales is just way too high and it's not the only song that fits this profile.

[irice22]

The Hot 100 is 50% streaming!? That's way too much. They've got to change it up.

[lyhom]

personally I could get on with the whole "no one cares about year end stuff by january" thing if the charts didn't come so early now

for example, the last week of 2015 will be dated december 26th. provided that there's no delays due to errors or the holidays, that chart will be first seen to everyone on december 15th. that gives about 16 days until the end of the year, which I believe is around the same amount of time it took last year's year end chart to come out (it came out on the 9th, didn't it? I think the last chart of that year came out around november 27th, didn't it? that's about 12 days.)

[Deleted]

I see both sides of the calendar year vs. chart year argument. However, because it's been the Dec-Nov way for so long... changing it now only creates another asterisk in the history of Billboard's charts. So I lean on the side of sticking with the chart year. It makes the most sense for Billboard as a print publication and also as a go-to source of year end data for other publications to use throughout the month. Most - if not all - magazines put out the "best of" or annual retrospective lists in their December issues, not January.

Plus, look at the bright side... It's not nearly as wonky/confusing/misleading as the Grammy eligibility period vs. actual year.

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 15:31:53 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Nov 17, 2015 8:57:17 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Does anyone think Billboard will change the Hot 100 formula this week? They did in 2013 and 2014, so I think they might.

Apparently the formula now works out to about 20% sales, 30% airplay and 50% streaming, so Billboard might change it so it's about 25/30/45 or 30/30/40.

I personally don't think it's necessary to change the formula, but I can see why they would.

I was thinking the same thing. I think Billboard will adjust streaming a bit (even though I think they need to break streaming into active and passive). The charts have become way too stagnant because of streaming play that it keeping songs in the Top 50 long after the passed on both radio and sales. Nothing against Fetty Wap - but Trap Queen moving up to 22 when it's not in Top 100 airplay and barely scraping Top 100 in sales is just way too high and it's not the only song that fits this profile.

Agree... something's gotta give. The passive vs. active streaming is a very valid point, and really should be weighted or something.  I'm anxious to see if and how they change it up.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Nov 17, 2015 15:31:53 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

Nov 17, 2015 8:57:17 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Does anyone think Billboard will change the Hot 100 formula this week? They did in 2013 and 2014, so I think they might.

Apparently the formula now works out to about 20% sales, 30% airplay and 50% streaming, so Billboard might change it so it's about 25/30/45 or 30/30/40.

I personally don't think it's necessary to change the formula, but I can see why they would.

I was thinking the same thing. I think Billboard will adjust streaming a bit (even though I think they need to break streaming into active and passive). The charts have become way too stagnant because of streaming play that it keeping songs in the Top 50 long after the passed on both radio and sales. Nothing against Fetty Wap - but Trap Queen moving up to 22 when it's not in Top 100 airplay and barely scraping Top 100 in sales is just way too high and it's not the only song that fits this profile.

They need to break out active, passive, and Youtube and weight them differently. They also need to only count views of the official video on Youtube, none of this cops lipsyncing in their car, baby dancing to a random song crap.

[Deleted]

^ Yeah, the viral video with the song playing in the background is complete BS.

[lyhom]

Nov 17, 2015 16:03:40 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

I see both sides of the calendar year vs. chart year argument. However, because it's been the Dec-Nov way for so long... changing it now only creates another asterisk in the history of Billboard's charts. So I lean on the side of sticking with the chart year. It makes the most sense for Billboard as a print publication and also as a go-to source of year end data for other publications to use throughout the month. Most - if not all - magazines put out the "best of" or annual retrospective lists in their December issues, not January.

Plus, look at the bright side... It's not nearly as wonky/confusing/misleading as the Grammy eligibility period vs. actual year.

yeah I probably should have mentioned the fact that if billboard switches to january-december for their chart year that inevitably there will be about 4-5 weeks that won't count for at least one year (or some awkward shoehorning into either year), but I forgot about while making my post. 

[velaxti]

Nov 17, 2015 15:33:45 GMT -5 irice22 said:

The Hot 100 is 50% streaming!? That's way too much. They've got to change it up.

Sales were probably something like 70% of the Hot 100 not long ago (e.g. 2011), so I have no problem with streaming getting that high one day tbh.

Also. About Youtube vs Spotify streaming, in the case of Trap Queen, it did incredibly well on both, so I don't think it would've made much of a difference either way. It was a streaming smash in every way.

However with other songs it would make a difference. Watch Me does really well on Youtube and decent Spotify but not that impressive, so giving less weight to Youtube streams would've made that song chart a bit lower most weeks.

Jumpman by Drake/Future is doing well with Youtube streams (it doesn't have a music video yet), but even better on Spotify (it got all the way to #2 at one point), so in this case giving more weight to Spotify streams would make that song chart a bit higher each week (maybe enough that it could've got in the top 10 a few weeks ago).

Less weight to Youtube would benefit alternative/indie artists imo because they tend to do really poor on Youtube but do well on Spotify. Country songs don't seem to do that well on either, but I reckon they do a bit better on Spotify than Youtube so they might benefit too. Not really sure how this would impact dance songs tbh.

[House Lannister]

Nov 17, 2015 13:51:35 GMT -5 rimetm said:

To add my voice to the ring, I use the chart year for my chart as well. In fact, I was just announcing the results these past few days.

Anyway, what songs will go top 40 this week? I'm thinking:

Where They From (35-20)
Love Yourself (40-30)
Break Up in a Small Town (40-36)
I'm Comin' Over (40-30)
Bet You Can't Do it Like Me (?????)
Lay it All on Me (45-40)
Don't (50-30, really don't know its momentum)

I think Break Up in a Small Town, Lay It All on Me, and Don't will crack it this week.

[aser94]

Does anyone know if official live videos count for YouTube streaming? Just wondering if "When We Were Young" has any chance of debuting next week. It also reminds me of when the "Set Fire to the Rain" Royal Albert Hall performance pretty much served as the song's official video, and it got me wondering whether that would've helped it had YouTube streaming been included in the chart back then.

[YourFaveIsAFlop]

Nov 17, 2015 17:28:30 GMT -5 aser94 said:

Does anyone know if official live videos count for YouTube streaming? Just wondering if "When We Were Young" has any chance of debuting next week. It also reminds me of when the "Set Fire to the Rain" Royal Albert Hall performance pretty much served as the song's official video, and it got me wondering whether that would've helped it had YouTube streaming been included in the chart back then.

It depends. For example, Dope by lady gaga counted. But others don't. I don't think they've ever actually explained how or why

[85la]

I think they already do give more weight to active streams - the songs you see on the "On-Demand" chart. They explained this in the weekly Hot 100 article when they first started giving more weight to streaming back in 2012.

As for the Billboard Chart year vs. Calendar year issue, it seems that the media and the public in general pays more attention to the Soundscan figures that are released in early January and actually follow the calendar year. You almost never hear external media referring to the best-selling albums according to Billboard, or the Top Billboard Artist of the year, at least since they ended the awards show in December (Doesn't make sense now how they moved that to May). It's all about Soundscan's timeframe, the best-selling albums, singles, etc., when those figures are released.

[Spidey]

Nov 17, 2015 18:24:38 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Nov 17, 2015 17:28:30 GMT -5 aser94 said:

Does anyone know if official live videos count for YouTube streaming? Just wondering if "When We Were Young" has any chance of debuting next week. It also reminds me of when the "Set Fire to the Rain" Royal Albert Hall performance pretty much served as the song's official video, and it got me wondering whether that would've helped it had YouTube streaming been included in the chart back then.

It depends. For example, Dope by lady gaga counted. But others don't. I don't think they've ever actually explained how or why

Isn't it based on how videos are categorized on YouTube? If a video is under the Music category and has a music tag of the song title and artist, then it usually counts toward the song's streaming points.

[85la]

Nov 17, 2015 18:24:38 GMT -5 YourFaveIsAFlop said:

Nov 17, 2015 17:28:30 GMT -5 aser94 said:

Does anyone know if official live videos count for YouTube streaming? Just wondering if "When We Were Young" has any chance of debuting next week. It also reminds me of when the "Set Fire to the Rain" Royal Albert Hall performance pretty much served as the song's official video, and it got me wondering whether that would've helped it had YouTube streaming been included in the chart back then.

It depends. For example, Dope by lady gaga counted. But others don't. I don't think they've ever actually explained how or why

I think they responded to a reader question about this recently saying that sometimes it has to do with whether the music was licensed properly. Label politics, basically.

[irice22]

Nov 17, 2015 16:42:11 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Nov 17, 2015 15:33:45 GMT -5 irice22 said:

The Hot 100 is 50% streaming!? That's way too much. They've got to change it up.

Sales were probably something like 70% of the Hot 100 not long ago (e.g. 2011), so I have no problem with streaming getting that high one day tbh.

Also. About Youtube vs Spotify streaming, in the case of Trap Queen, it did incredibly well on both, so I don't think it would've made much of a difference either way. It was a streaming smash in every way.

However with other songs it would make a difference. Watch Me does really well on Youtube and decent Spotify but not that impressive, so giving less weight to Youtube streams would've made that song chart a bit lower most weeks.

Jumpman by Drake/Future is doing well with Youtube streams (it doesn't have a music video yet), but even better on Spotify (it got all the way to #2 at one point), so in this case giving more weight to Spotify streams would make that song chart a bit higher each week (maybe enough that it could've got in the top 10 a few weeks ago).

Less weight to Youtube would benefit alternative/indie artists imo because they tend to do really poor on Youtube but do well on Spotify. Country songs don't seem to do that well on either, but I reckon they do a bit better on Spotify than Youtube so they might benefit too. Not really sure how this would impact dance songs tbh.

I remember someone mentioning that the audience of impressions per "Hot 100 point" was far less than that of Airplay. Are there any stats for that? It's hard to put this outreach into perspective.

[wjr15]

Hoping Here cracks the Top 10 this week!!!

[Deleted]

Nov 17, 2015 23:46:43 GMT -5 wjr15 said:

Hoping Here cracks the Top 10 this week!!!

I think it will.

[Daniel Collins]

Billboard 11/18/15

1. ADELE - Hello: 184.284 (+ 4.173)
2. DRAKE - Hotline Bling: 176.240 (+ 1.028)
3. TAYLOR SWIFT - Wildest Dreams: 160.312 (- 2.020)
4. SHAWN MENDES - Stitches: 147.203 (- 0.062) ▲
5. THE WEEKND - The Hills: 143.786 (- 3.594) ▼
6. JUSTIN BIEBER - What Do You Mean?: 131.762 (- 0.631)
7. ELLE KING - Ex's and Oh's: 126.002 (+ 0.140)
8. ALESSIA CARA - Here: 109.421 (+ 1.374)
9. MEGHAN TRAINOR - Like I'm Gonna Lose You: 102.260 (+ 1.107)
10. X AMBASSADORS - Renegades: 97.835 (- 2.477)


11. ELLIE GOULDING - On My Mind: 88.092 (+ 0.667)
12. FETTY WAP - 679 f/Remy Boyz...: 87.393 (+ 0.356)
13. R. CITY - Locked Away f/Adam Levine: 79.224 (- 1.204)
14. SELENA GOMEZ - Same Old Love: 75.373 (+ 0.459)
15. THE WEEKND - Can't Feel My Face: 71.123 (- 0.883)
16. JUSTIN BIEBER - Sorry: 69.323 (+ 2.405) ▲
17. CHRIS YOUNG - I'm Comin' Over: 67.756 (+ 0.254) ▼
18. CARRIE UNDERWOOD - Smoke Break: 66.130 (+ 0.777)
19. COLE SWINDELL - Let Me See Ya Girl: 62.510 (- 1.904)
20. WALK THE MOON - Shut Up And Dance: 61.403 (- 1.072)

CURIOSIDADES

DAN + SHAY - Nothin' Like You: 61.227 (- 0.019)
BLAKE SHELTON - Gonna: 60.731 (+ 0.232)
ARIANA GRANDE - Focus: 53.375 (+ 0.212)
RUDIMENTAL - Lay It All On Me f/Ed Sheeran: 45.351 (+ 0.308)
DEMI LOVATO - Confident: 42.962 (- 0.020)
THOMAS RHETT - Die A Happy Man: 39.563 (+ 0.766)
ONE DIRECTION - Perfect: 24.268 (+ 1.000)
THE WEEKND - In The Night: 22.833 (+ 2.804)
RACHEL PLATTEN - Stand By You: 21.140 (+ 0.050)
COLDPLAY - Adventure Of A Lifetime: 19.986 (+ 1.103)
CHRIS BROWN - Zero: 19.657 (+ 0.449)
GWEN STEFANI - Used To Love You: 17.052 (+ 0.701)
FALL OUT BOY - Irresistible f/Demi Lovato: 13.008 (+ 0.378)
MISSY ELLIOTT - WTF (Where They From): 8.907 (+ 0.719)