HITS 5/27: Blake #1 Albums. Drake #1 SPS

[areyoureadytojump]

These are predictions based on pre-orders/industry expectations and not actual sales. We'll get those on Saturday.

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301156

Thursday, May 19, 2016

A GRANDE OPENING, WITHOUT WINDOWS

Ariana Grande’s new album, Dangerous Woman (Republic), which comes out tomorrow and is expected to do about 150k albums/190k sales plus streaming in its first week, will go wide to all services—including Spotify—upon release. Like Meghan Trainor, Ariana is going against the growing trend of windowing. (She has, it's worth noting, dropped a brace of individual tracks, including cuts featuring Nicki Minaj, Lil Wayne, Future and Macy Gray, for Apple-only streaming pre-release.)

Is Team Ariana making the right call by not windowing? The pint-sized diva is managing herself along with her mom, Joan Grande; are they taking a page from the playbook of former manager Scooter Braun, who enjoyed massive Spotify success with Justin Bieber?

and...

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301193

Friday, May 20, 2016

ITUNES GETS DANGEROUS

Immediately following the drop of her third album, Republic star Ariana Grande soared to #1 on iTunes' overall album sales chart in the U.S. and across the globe in more than 65 countries. Dangerous Woman—priced at $12.99—currently remains the top dog (or bunny) and, based on early projections, is in the running to go #1 on the HITS Sales Plus Streaming Chart this time next week.

Meanwhile, title track and lead single "Dangerous Woman" is in the Top 10 on iTunes' singles chart.

Keep in mind that her success so far has been achieved without using trendy windowing tactics, as it's gone wide to all services (yes, including Spotify).

In tandem with the set's release, Vevo has revealed exclusive videos from her intimate surprise performance yesterday at NYC's Angel Orensanz Center. Watch the one for "Dangerous Woman" below.

As for the rest of the new releases at iTunes, at press time, Blake Shelton's If I'm Honest (Warner Bros. Nashville) is #2, Eric Clapton's I Still Do (Bushbranch/Surfdog) is #5 and Bob Dylan's Fallen Angels (Columbia) is #19.

[Glove Slap]

Very strong opening if it holds, especially when you consider that she's releasing off one single that hasn't been as big as the ones off the last album.

The wide streaming release makes sense for her when you consider that she appeals to a younger audience than those who have done exclusives recently.

[ILLUSION]

Get it girl! Great album!

[felipe]

May 20, 2016 19:04:46 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

The wide streaming release makes sense for her when you consider that she appeals to a younger audience than those who have done exclusives recently.

And yet her SPS numbers don't look that great.

[Caviar]

Solid numbers for her.

[fearlessarrow]

I thought Ariana would do worse, so good numbers for her :)

She opened with 169k for My Everything coming off of "Problem" and "Break Free" (which was still rising at the time), so I thought she would do somewhere around 120-130k in pure album sales. Whether she can get #1 on BB200 would depend on how Drake's SPS does right? I think she's got the pure album sales #1 on lock, but with SPS I think things could get a little bit shaky. HDD said Drake had 240k in SPS this week, so it could be fairly close between the two...

[areyoureadytojump]

^Maybe. Drake was down 21% this week. If he decreases by a similar number, Ariana will be #1.

[fearlessarrow]

May 20, 2016 21:00:41 GMT -5 areyoureadytojump said:

^Maybe. Drake was down 21% this week. If he decreases by a similar number, Ariana will be #1.

If Drake decreases by 21% again, that would put him right around 190k. So Drake would have to decrease by a bit more or Ariana has to pull higher numbers. Of course, there's also the discrepancy between HDD and Billboard, so things could turn out either way. I hope Ariana gets the #1 :)

[Zach]

Yup, definitely better than expected for her. I was hoping she'd exceed my expectations. Hope I don't see the projection go down next update.

[DJ General]

I was expecting a soft 200k opening, but who knows. Still decent. No word on Blake? I thought he would get upwards of 200k as well. Maybe like 150-175?

[kanimal]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301200

Ariana Grande will challenge Drake for #1 on our SPS chart next week; the result will depend on how well Drizzy's streams and track sales hold up in his fourth week. On the sales chart, another battle for #1 could be brewing, the third in as many weeks. While we’re giving Grande for now, Blake Shelton has emerged as a formidable challenger.

You’ll note that the SPS number is now first in the projections. Here are this week's key debuts:

Ariana Grande (Republic) 150-170k SPS, 120-130k album
Blake Shelton (Warner Bros. Nashville) 130-140k, 120-130k
Bob Dylan (Columbia) 36-42k, 35-40k
Eric Clapton (Bushbranch/Surf Dog) 25-28k, 24-27k

Basically, good news for Blake (he's up from his last album), disappointing news for Grande (certainly a solid number in its own right, but the "disappointment" comes from the fact that it's well below forecasts and would be her lowest opening week sales total).

Still not sure what could have prompted Hits to forecast 200K in sales [Same thing happened with ZAYN - they seem to dramatically overstate how many albums these artists will sell in the actual first week compared to the pre-order]

[Duca]

Those are okay numbers for Ariana compared to My Everything.

[Live Your Life]

I was expecting around 100k in pure album sales for Ariana, so those are respectable numbers, all things considered.

[Deleted]

Why does the thread title say Trainor instead of Grande?

[onebuffalo]

Just saw those numbers for Blake Shelton. Better than his last outing with Bringing Back The Sunshine. By the way, he's going for a record breaking 17th consecutive #1 hit with Came Here To Forget.

[Deleted]

Blake's numbers are expected. Bringing Back the Sunshine's numbers were hampered by coming so soon after Based on a True Story.

[onebuffalo]

May 22, 2016 15:39:55 GMT -5 @towerofshowers said:

Blake's numbers are expected. Bringing Back the Sunshine's numbers were hampered by coming so soon after Based on a True Story.

The rumored Gwen Stefani duet as next single I'm sure hasn't hurt Blake Shelton, either.

[Choco]

Decent for Ariana, but it might not be enough to top Drake's SPS. At least she's doing much better than Meghan.

[jenglisbe]

May 22, 2016 15:12:14 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Just saw those numbers for Blake Shelton. Better than his last outing with Bringing Back The Sunshine. By the way, he's going his record label is paying for a record breaking 17th consecutive #1 hit with Came Here To Forget.

[onebuffalo]

May 23, 2016 8:14:04 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

May 22, 2016 15:12:14 GMT -5 onebuffalo said:

Just saw those numbers for Blake Shelton. Better than his last outing with Bringing Back The Sunshine. By the way, he's going his record label is paying for a record breaking 17th consecutive #1 hit with Came Here To Forget.

FUNNY!

[kanimal]

Drake seemed to benefit by being added to more streaming networks (namely Spotify and TIDAL) last week. Plus, while it didn't necessarily result in an *increase*, his appearance on SNL likely prevented a bigger drop in terms of album and track sales.

So, it may not be safe to assume he'll only drop 21% this week. A 30-40% decline wouldn't be surprising this week.

That said, it's not a lock the 120-130/150-170 projections will hold for Grande. It's worth noting that she's already down to #3 on iTunes, behind both Blake's album and Beyonce's album. Since you'd assume an older-skewing country artist is also performing comparatively well at physical retailers, it definitely seems like Blake has a good chance to win in pure sales.

The question thus becomes whether 120-130K was *too low* for Blake or *too high* for Ariana; the answer to that question impacts how many sales+tracks+streams Dangerous Woman will post.

[kanimal]

(this shouldn't count as a double post)

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301218

It's looking like a battle for #1 on both the HITS SPS and album charts this week, as debuting Republic siren Ariana Grande faces off against labelmate Drake for SPS supremacy, while dueling with Warner Music Nashville's Blake Shelton for the top album spot. Here's how it looks at the moment:

Ariana Grande (Republic) 150-160k SPS /120-130k albums
Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 150-160k SPS/55k-60k albums
Blake Shelton (Warner Music Nashville) 135-140k SPS/120-130k albums

How will it all shake out? Will the diminutive diva prevail, or will it be a Drakey Blakey chart week? Stay tuned.

[ampersand]

Hoping Ari can pull through!

[Zach]

Come onnnn Ari!

[Caviar]

Come thru Ari!

[areyoureadytojump]

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301234

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

TOP 15: A THREE-WAY BATTLE

Republic labelmates Ariana Grande and Drake stay locked in a dead heat for #1 on our Sales Plus Streaming (SPS) Chart. On the album side, Ariana's bout with Warner Bros. Nashville’s Blake Shelton is also hella tight.

Here’s how it looks at midweek. We’ll update tomorrow as new info becomes available.

SPS
*Ariana Grande (Republic) 155-165k
Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 155-165k
*Blake Shelton (Warner Bros. Nashville) 140-150k
Beyoncé (Columbia) 98-103k
Rihanna (Westbury Road/Roc Nation) 45-50k
*Bob Dylan (Columbia) 40-45k
*Eric Clapton (Bushbranch/Surf Dog) 35-40k
Meghan Trainor (Epic) 34-38k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 31-35k
Prince (Warner Bros.) 29-32k
Chris Stapleton (Mercury Nashville) 27-30k
Twenty One Pilots (Fueled by Ramen) 25-28k
Justin Bieber (Def Jam) 24-27k
Hamilton (Uptown) 22-25k
*Mudcrutch (Reprise) 21-24k

SALES
*Blake Shelton (Warner Bros. Nashville) 130-140k
*Ariana Grande (Republic) 125-135k
Beyoncé (Columbia) 70-75k
Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 54-58k
*Bob Dylan (Columbia) 40-44k
*Eric Clapton (Bushbranch/Surf Dog) 34-38k
Meghan Trainor (Epic) 25-28k
Prince (Warner Bros.) 24-27k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 23-26k
*Mudcrutch (Reprise) 21-24k
Chris Stapleton (Mercury Nashville) 18-21k
Radiohead (XL) 16-19k
Keith Urban (Capitol Nashville) 14-17k
Cole Swindell (Warner Bros. Nashville) 13-16k
Hamilton (Uptown) 12-15k

*Debut

[areyoureadytojump]

New numbers:

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301257

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

ARIANA, DRAKE AND BLAKE: THE RACE STAYS TIGHT

The incredibly tight battles for both Sales Plus Streaming and Album chart supremacy continue today, with Ariana Grande dueling Drake for the SPS title and Blake for the album-sales #1. An increase in streaming activity since the weekend has driven up Drake’s numbers, while Shelton has spiked in sales, buoyed by constant Voice exposure. Could we be white-knuckling it to the wire on both charts? Here’s an update on the projections.

Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 170-180k SPS, 50-60k albums
Ariana Grande (Republic) 160-170k SPS, 130-140k albums
Blake Shelton (Warner Music Nashville) 150-160k SPS, 140-150k albums

[Deleted]

Ariana's numbers are pretty impressive considering she's releasing in a worse sales climate than "My Everything" and the title track is nowhere as big as the lead singles preceding that era.

[Mayman]

I hope Ariana pulls thru.

[Deleted]

Wow, Ariana's actually doing better than Meghan Trainor's first week. Didn't expect that after DW failed to pick up that top 10 steam like NO did. Hoping it keeps doing well.