So I haven't wrote a chart overview since the beginning of January 2017, about 7 or 8 weeks ago. I'm technically not supposed to do it now either because I have a couple of exams next week, including a history one tomorrow, and a bit of work to finish up. But honestly I don't feel like studying at this very moment so here we go
Castle On The Hill scores a second week at #1 on its 6th week on chart and in the top 10. Through
Sing Me To Sleep's reign, we've seen a noticeable drop of points for the top songs since the
Peter Pan/
Starboy era, especially on its last week at #1. Currently,
Castle On The Hill has only 40.5k points. Though this is still above point values for #1 songs of the majority of the first half of 2016, the trend of downward movement in points looks to be continuing, mainly due to life just getting worse by the day, socially and academically. Man am I excited for once AP testing is all over by mid May, which means most of my HS stress will be behind me... Expect point values to keep decreasing all the way until this time. It will plateau at probably around 30k ish through May, and once June kicks around and summer begins, point values will begin to recover.
Right under
COTH is the former 5 week #1
Sing Me To Sleep, which again, spent the week losing in points (which, for the majority of songs, is true - even songs that gained positions). However, its point loss rate isn't that bad compared with some other older songs such as
Starboy and
Starving. Expect this to stick around for awhile, but honestly I don't think 30 weeks in the top 10 is a possibility. In fact, with lowering point values at the top comes a more uniform distribution of points, making dominance at #1/top 10 more difficult. Hence, I actually think that once
Peter Pan exits the top 10, we will, for the first time in the 114 week history of my chart, have a week where no song in the top 10 have made/will make the 30 weeks in the top 10 mark. And yes, that means I don't think
Starboy or
Starving will actually hit 30 weeks. More on that later.
Two of the only songs that gained held the #3 and 4 positions this week. The Weeknd and Daft Punk's second collab
I Feel It Coming and Kelsea Ballerini's former record holding 9 week #1 song
Peter Pan smash 6 - 3 and 7 - 4 respectively, both fueled by Grammy performances.
I Feel It Coming is likely to decrease a little in points next week, but remember, we're in an era of decreasing points. Hence, the point decrease of
IFIC might be small enough to push it
above SMTS and perhaps even
COTH (remember, at this point it's about which song can fall the
slowest). As long as Ed Sheeran's album release comes before the
IFIC/
COTH pass, it's looking likely that
IFIC will slip in a week or two at #1. Meanwhile, Kelsea's
Peter Pan isn't likely to be so lucky, as this is just a resurgence. However, what it is looking to do is break the Most Weeks in Top 10 Record currently held at 37 weeks by
Style! Here's a overview of all songs that have reached 30 weeks in the top 10:
TAYLOR SWIFT - STYLE (38 weeks in top 10: 1/24/2015 - 8/8/2015, 12/5/2015 - 1/30/2016)
THE CHAINSMOKERS F/ DAYA - DON'T LET ME DOWN (37 weeks in top 10: 4/2/2016 - 12/10/2016 - longest consecutive run in top 10)
FLO RIDA - MY HOUSE (36 weeks in top 10: 11/21/2015 - 7/23/2016)
KELSEA BALLERINI - PETER PAN (36 weeks in top 10: 6/18/2016 - Still in top 10)TWENTY ONE PILOTS - STRESSED OUT (34 weeks in top 10: 12/26/2015 - 8/6/2016, 9/3/2016)
HOZIER - TAKE ME TO CHURCH (32 weeks in top 10: 12/20/2014 - 7/25/2015)
KELSEA BALLERINI - DIBS (31 weeks in top 10: 1/16/2016 - 2/27/2016, 6/4/2016 - 11/12/2016)
SHAWN MENDES - STITCHES (30 weeks in top 10: 7/25/2015 - 2/13/2016)
DAYA - SIT STILL, LOOK PRETTY (30 weeks in top 10: 5/21/2016 - 7/23/2016, 8/20/2016 - 12/31/2016)
With
Peter Pan only 2 weeks away and still at #4, and also
Peter Pan historically has a very small point depreciation, it's likely to fall in points slower than many other songs, so if I were to place a bet, it's gonna do it and perhaps even be the first song to break 40 weeks in the top 10!
(This next section will be a bit more on the technical side, like how chart trajectories work. So if you don't wanna read technical stuff, all you have to know is that the dominators over the past era aren't really expected to hit 30 weeks in the top 10 and are expected to fall faster than you may expect. Feel free to skip two paragraphs. But if you wanna know why, I recommend that you read it, because at least for me, it's quite interesting)
I do want to take note, though, that in the above list of 30 weeks+ in the top 10, most songs are actually 2016/2016 peaking songs. In reality, I actually liked 2015 better, but many songs there fell into the 20-29 weeks in the top 10 range. Why is that the case? Well, we have this phenomenon that happened in the second half of 2016 called domination-stagnation, where as I kind of mentioned earlier, point values for the top 10/20 rose super high, leaving the rest of the chart in dust. Meanwhile, the point values of the top 3 would go even higher, making nobody else able to compete. This allows songs to stay at #1/top 5/top 10/top 20 for what seems like an eternity (hence stagnation), and there were weeks in the top 10 where there was almost no movement. This domination-stagnation started at around
Don't Let Me Down's re-takeover of
Better Place for #1 back in mid June and ended a few weeks ago when
Castle On The Hill rose above
Sing Me To Sleep. There are little pockets within this half year where the domination-stagnation almost broke (example would be
Heathens/
Sit Still, Look Pretty), but the late fall/early winter dominators
Starboy and
Starving were too strong and continued on with domination once
Peter Pan,
Dibs, and
Don't Let Me Down broke down. This is why there are SO MANY 30+ weeks top 10 songs over the past era. If put in 2015 or current day,
SSLP,
Dibs, and
Stressed Out would never reach 30 weeks, while
My House would be a 30/31 week top 10 while
Don't Let Me Down would make around 33/34 weeks. We'll see how
Peter Pan will fare as we exit out of this domination-stagnation. A similar case of domination-stagnation, except that only involved the domination-stagnation of the top 3 and the rest of the chart was normal, happened in the very end in 2015, when
The Hills/
Stitches/
Wildest Dreams held the top 3 for 11 straight weeks. After
Out Of The Woods,
Hello, and
Stressed Out broke this domination, the three songs, still playing by the domination rules of big falls/big rises don't matter in the short run and only matter in the long run, were overwhelmed by the regular rules of a single big fall can kill a song, leading all three songs, with the exception of
Wildest Dreams, to fall relatively quickly out of the top 20.
That being said, this is why I do not think
Starboy/
Starving/
Sing Me To Sleep will hit 30 weeks in top 10. It's a very similar case as the 2015 domination-stagnation. We just came out of domination-stagnation, yet those three songs "play by the rules of" domination-stagnation. They aren't really used to big falls/rises in points not mattering but simply falling less in points could save them. Which means they will continue to fall in points relatively quickly, meaning that none of them will fare well in the longevity meter. Sad, but true fact...
Starving got f**ked up again. If released earlier and caught the
Peter Pan wave, it would've easily made 30 weeks in top 10. Similar case with
Starboy/
SMTS.
That brings us to the 3 - 5 fall of
Starboy. Although mainly due to Grammy performances pushing two other songs up, this 3 - 5 drop isn't really surprising given the end of domination-stagnation. Similar case with the 5 - 7 fall of
Starving. In between these two songs are
In My Mind, falling 4 - 6. I guess we can call Maty's song as a domination song, as she point peaked back at around
Starving's point peak. However,
In My Mind is faring just a little better than the Stars, simply because it was in less of a domination position, so even though it "played by the rules of domination", it is less susceptible to huge falls. However, with new songs rising, it's relatively big falls, because after all, it was still a domination song, may be what ousts it from the top 10.
The final three positions of the top 10 are in a weird stance right now. They are technically domination songs that peaked a few weeks back at around the same time Maty and Hailee peaked. Again, they are falling less slowly than the Stars or even Maty because they were in less of a domination stance. However, they are more vulnerable - simply because the point gap between
Starving and #8
Bad Things is simply too large for the difference in point drop rates to make a difference, because once that gap closes, the two would be both out of the top 10 and dropping at the same rate. So I don't expect either of these three songs to last long. There is an exception, however. #9
Yeah Boy is looking to debut on Billboard soon, and if it does and does catch some traction on my local radio station (which loved
LMLYMI,
Dibs, and especially
Peter Pan), it may break the rules and challenge the next era of songs. But with Kelsea's second album coming sometime within 2017, I honestly don't think Kelsea will be pushing
Yeah Boy too hard. Maybe a little bit? Too soon to tell. The final
#10 position went to Maren Morris's
80s Mercedes. Also, technically Daya's
Words is part of the same group of songs, but was pushed out of the top 10 to #12 two weeks ago and stayed there this week (with
Don't Let Me Down as #11 due to Grammys). This song had a lot of potential, but with domination-stagnation ending and pop radio for some reason not pushing it, I don't think it's gonna have too good of a future.
At #13 this week we have The Chainsmokers' first solo single charting for my chart
Paris, rising 16 - 13 this week. This weekend, I started getting REALLY obsessed in this song, and especially with the video release (which is just f**king amazing. Except the girl looks a bit weird lol) this will shoot up a lot next week and may join the
COTH/
IFIC fight for which song can fall the slowest/get a sudden boost for #1 lmao. Alan Walker's third single
Alone also rises 19 - 16 this week, another contender especially with domination-stagnation ending at the top.
Shape Of You falls 14 - 17 from its video boost last week, it's future is still a bit soon to tell.
Say You Won't Let Go advances 22 - 20, though its advancement rate is slowing down and to be completely honest, I don't think it'll live up to its full potential - unless it smashes on radio or Billboard.
Rockabye advances into top 25 this week and is really slaying me hard right now, possibly another contender for the spring. Similar case with
Heavydirtysoul, though less so, barely entering top 30 this week. Of the new entries into the top 50 these recent weeks, I would bet the most on three songs doing well: Marian Hill's
Down, entering top 40 this week, as well as the two entries into the top 50 this week: Julia Michaels's
Issues and Katy Perry's
Chained To The Rhythm. I would guess that top 25 is almost certain and top 20 is close to almost certain. Top 15 would be a 75/25 (75 making it), and top 10 would be a 50/50 for all three. There has also been a few interesting debuts these weeks, but before the enter top 50, I'll keep my predictions to which ones will be successful a mystery! But there is one song that seems to be doing very well: Dierks Bentley's
Black. This
might be the next country smash on my chart... if it continues its past two weeks of large gains.
Guys, this half year long slow paced era of my chart is ending. Brace yourself for the coming, turbulent era with constant song position changes! I'm excited for what's about to happen! (but note that there is a difference between the 2015 turbulence and 2017 turbulence. 2017 is looking to be more like early 2016 than 2015 - a lower level turbulence - where songs change positions with lower point values. Though I do expect point values to be a bit higher than 2016. 2015 was way too awesome - average point values were simply too high, resembling point values of the past late 2016 domination-stagnation. In fact, the late 2015 domination-stagnation with
The Hills/
Stitches/
Wildest Dreams can be characterized more as these three songs trying to extend the legacy of 2015 but the rest of the chart not following along and falling in point values, leading into a huge gap between #3 and #4, and once this final reminiscent of 2015 falls, it's time for lower point values, as seen in early 2016)
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