HITS 6/3: Drake #1 SPS, Bentley #2, Fifth Harmony #3

[Adam (UTR)]

NEW RELEASES: THAT'S A RAP, RAPTORS

The week's two biggest debuts, by Capitol Nashville's Dierks Bentley and Epic's Fifth Harmony, are likely to come in at #2 and #3 on next week's Sales Plus Streaming chart behind YMCMB/Republic's streaming colossus, Drake.

Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville) 85-90k SPS, 80-85k albums
Fifth Harmony (Epic) 70-75k SPS, 47-52k albums

(HDD)

[felipe]

So Fifth Harmony will open lower than their previous album. Doesn't make sense.

[Future Captain]

Strange that Fifth Harmony will open less than with their last album, especially with Work From Home being much much bigger than Bo$$ and Sledgehammer.

I really thought they're going to open with at least 100k.

[phillip12bluelov]

I don't like this group of girls. I'm happy they will debut with less copies sold than the 1th album, but unfortunately even like this they will get a peak higher than Reflection that it was 4. They must debut in top 3 at 3, the only thing I get happy, it's because they aren't going 1 on billboard 200 or top 30 on albums sales.
Drake helped me much keeping 1 in billboard 200, because this way he delayed 3 female acts I hate: Meghan Trainor, Ariana Grande and now those pathetic girls. All of them has being overestimated, but didn't menage to repeat n1 in 200, mainly Ariana that got 2 n1 and now won't get it again, and her lead single isn't as stronger than The way and problem. While Meghan had 1 with Title that sold over 1 million, now I doubt she will sell 500k with this Thank You. And the aftermentioned group, it was already weak in sales and just got gold on Reflection because of streaming, once the album sold less than 200k, now they're weaker with 7/27. But I'm praying that Drake don't delay Nick in his release, surely he'll sell more than he sold in Nick Jonas with just 37k, now I think he'll sell the double with LYWC.
Nothing against fans of those 3 acts, but I really hate those 7 girls.

[fearlessarrow]

Nice numbers for Dierks! Riser opened with 63k, so that's around 20k more than that. Also it'll be his highest-charting album on the BB 200, since his highest-charting album so far, Feel That Fire, peaked at #3. "Somewhere on a Beach" was very successful, so he's got that going for him, but when album sales are declining from year-to-year, I think it's impressive that he's able to increase his first-week sales.

I'm also surprised at Fifth Harmony's numbers. I thought how big the lead single "Work From Home" is should help with their first-week sales, even though it doesn't sound like a song that would move albums. 

[.indulgecountry]

Wasn't expecting Dierks Bentley to best Fifth Harmony in sales like that. I agree that it seems to me like 5H should've had a better opening week for their album, too. Love the record regardless, though, and I expect them to keep doing well either way.

[Enigma.]

WFH is pretty old now, they should have sent a new single to radio two weeks ago to maintain the buzz

[felipe]

May 29, 2016 2:11:31 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

WFH is pretty old now, they should have sent a new single to radio two weeks ago to maintain the buzz

But WFH hasn't even peaked yet. And they've released two buzz singles, including a music video for one of them, and I assumed those would help for pre-orders as well. Reflection opened better and Sledgehammer barely cracked top 40.

[fire]

WFH is as manufactured a hit as it gets. A song you won't mind hearing on the radio, but one that totally lacks character. It doesn't help that the same can be said, more or less, about the 5H members. Nice to look at, nice vocals, but trying way too hard to stand out without bringing any originality to the table.

In order to move albums, people would have to care, be emotionally invested in an artist, admire their craft. I give this album 2-3 weeks in the top 10, and on we go...

[jenglisbe]

Why would "WFH" necessarily motivate people to buy the album? Plus album sales have been declining steadily. I don't know why people expect artists to outsell their past debuts. Who is doing that other than Adele?

[felipe]

May 29, 2016 12:17:09 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Why would "WFH" necessarily motivate people to buy the album? Plus album sales have been declining steadily. I don't know why people expect artists to outsell their past debuts. Who is doing that other than Adele?

When reflection was released they hadn't had a real hit yet. They had their breakthough with Worth It, and now WFH is an even bigger hit. Their status grew exponentially this past year so it's fair to expect them to open bigger this time. Reflection was able to move that on their fanbase alone.

[josh]

May 29, 2016 12:17:09 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Why would "WFH" necessarily motivate people to buy the album? Plus album sales have been declining steadily. I don't know why people expect artists to outsell their past debuts. Who is doing that other than Adele?

Dierks is about to do it.

[ry4n]

WFH is #1 on pop radio leading into the album release. I'd say that's pretty good timing for the release date.

[Wavey✨️]

Man, they better change that prediction.

[Deleted]

May 29, 2016 8:06:56 GMT -5 fire said:

WFH is as manufactured a hit as it gets. A song you won't mind hearing on the radio, but one that totally lacks character. It doesn't help that the same can be said, more or less, about the 5H members. Nice to look at, nice vocals, but trying way too hard to stand out without bringing any originality to the table.

In order to move albums, people would have to care, be emotionally invested in an artist, admire their craft. 

Exactly how I feel.  Just a manufactured girl group du jour meant to capitalize on trends for as long as possible.  They aren't the first and won't be the last.  

[felipe]

May 30, 2016 11:31:27 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

May 29, 2016 8:06:56 GMT -5 fire said:

WFH is as manufactured a hit as it gets. A song you won't mind hearing on the radio, but one that totally lacks character. It doesn't help that the same can be said, more or less, about the 5H members. Nice to look at, nice vocals, but trying way too hard to stand out without bringing any originality to the table.

In order to move albums, people would have to care, be emotionally invested in an artist, admire their craft. 

Exactly how I feel.  Just a manufactured girl group du jour meant to capitalize on trends for as long as possible.  They aren't the first and won't be the last.  

That still doesn't explain how their last album manage to sell more. Were they a "better" group last year? Did they lose fans after the success of Worth It?

I understand the reviews for the new album are not as great as for the previous, but 72 on Metacritic is still more than many pop divas could dream of.

[Deleted]

May 30, 2016 14:42:46 GMT -5 felipe said:

May 30, 2016 11:31:27 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

Exactly how I feel.  Just a manufactured girl group du jour meant to capitalize on trends for as long as possible.  They aren't the first and won't be the last.  

That still doesn't explain how their last album manage to sell more. Were they a "better" group last year? Did they lose fans after the success of Worth It?

I understand the reviews for the new album are not as great as for the previous, but 72 on Metacritic is still more than many pop divas could dream of.

I think there was more hype/bloat for them the first time around, first of all.  I know many may disagree, but I think people were excited to hear their album hot on the heels of X-Factor... and they probably lost some of those curious people this time around... as well as some that just weren't impressed with the first album... and/or aren't impressed with WFH enough to buy this new album.

Plus, they aren't exactly an album act from a consumer perspective regardless of metacritic scores.  They are tailored for hit singles, which was my point in my initial response.

[kanimal]

-- A lot of the analysis in this thread would make sense if Work From Home were judged in a vacuum. It's independently not much bigger than a song like Natalie La Rose's "Somebody," and no one would expect her to sell more than a few thousand albums.

The problem is that, in context, Fifth Harmony is supposed to be a major act that very much *is* connecting beyond the singles. Pound-for-pound, the group may have the most passionate fanbase in music: their social media engagement levels are insane (their network is about the same size as Meghan Trainor's, but look at the difference in average levels of re-Tweets/likes/comments), and the fanbase is almost radical in terms of vocalizing support + going to town on anyone who says anything negative about them.

They've also received a ridiculous level of media coverage, with most positioning them as one of the hottest things in music right now. Natalie La Rose didn't get anywhere NEAR the kind of press, cover stories, etc that they've been getting.

Obviously, we've seen time and time again that success on social media doesn't translate into real-world commercial success. So you shouldn't expect them to sell 200,000 albums just because they get a lot of re-Tweets. But it's also hard to look at them as a disposable singles act when the actual behavior of the fanbase suggests they have connected to an absurdly significant degree.

-- That core, passionate fanbase has grown significantly from the first album. Plus, you'd still expect even the most unknown of acts to develop fans and sell albums on the back of Worth It and Work From Home.  So, yes, the decline is bizarre and disappointing.

-- Also, this is a group with an international tour schedule that includes a lot of big venues (as in, high-four and sometimes five-figure capacities) with tickets at high price points.  Again, Natalie La Rose isn't touring big amphitheaters and arenas at $100/seat.  So there's supposed to be something "special" about the draw of this group that isn't manifesting in album sales.

-- Regarding the "album sales are declining" argument, that obviously doesn't apply to acts that are substantially bigger than they were when they released their last album. It's also not inevitable; we're a week removed from Blake Shelton enjoying a 50% increase album-to-album and in a week that may see Dierks Bentley post the biggest sales week of his career.

But even if we accept the "album sales are declining" argument, it's important to remember that STREAMING is supposed to be a major culprit. So, while we may see a decline in pure sales, there's no reason we should see a decline in total consumption -- sales are supposed to be transforming into streams. Yet there's no guarantee "7/27" will even match the 80K consumption units posted by "Reflection."

-- It's not even that I'm personally shocked by the performance (I figured they'd do more than the last album, but I didn't think they'd have, for instance, beaten Ariana had they remained on 5/20); it's more that I'm intrigued by the message this sends about the difficulty of selling recorded music in 2016.  Here you have an act that, from a strategic standpoint, did everything it was supposed to -- had some major, mainstream hit singles AND "connected" by developing a huge, rabid fanbase -- yet can't translate the support and recognition into album sales or even streams.

[Deleted]

May 30, 2016 14:48:54 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

May 30, 2016 14:42:46 GMT -5 felipe said:

That still doesn't explain how their last album manage to sell more. Were they a "better" group last year? Did they lose fans after the success of Worth It?

I understand the reviews for the new album are not as great as for the previous, but 72 on Metacritic is still more than many pop divas could dream of.

I think there was more hype/bloat for them the first time around, first of all.  I know many may disagree, but I think people were excited to hear their album hot on the heels of X-Factor... and they probably lost some of those curious people this time around... as well as some that just weren't impressed with the first album... and/or aren't impressed with WFH enough to buy this new album.

Plus, they aren't exactly an album act from a consumer perspective regardless of metacritic scores.  They are tailored for hit singles, which was my point in my initial response.

That was my first instinct as well, but when I was looking at their discography page I realized that Reflection wasn't really "hot on the heels" of X-Factor - it came out two years later (there was an EP and a bunch of Youtube covers in the meantime). The people most prone to losing their curiosity about a group they saw on a talent show would have lost it long before that first album even came out. I agree that 5H really isn't the type of act that would inspire a casual listener to rush out and buy an album right away, so it probably shouldn't be a surprise that the sales didn't increase even with a big hit. But realistically 5H should be plateauing right now, not dropping.

IMO the drop in sales is a sign of them bleeding numbers from their fanbase, and I wonder if maybe the infighting within that base may be the cause. Some of the fans are extremely upset at what seems to be an overt effort to push Camila to the front/eventually make her the 'breakout' solo act from the group, and they might be too disillusioned to keep supporting a group that they think will be over soon anyway.

[Glove Slap]

May 30, 2016 14:48:54 GMT -5 @broccoli said:

May 30, 2016 14:42:46 GMT -5 felipe said:

That still doesn't explain how their last album manage to sell more. Were they a "better" group last year? Did they lose fans after the success of Worth It?

I understand the reviews for the new album are not as great as for the previous, but 72 on Metacritic is still more than many pop divas could dream of.

I think there was more hype/bloat for them the first time around, first of all.  I know many may disagree, but I think people were excited to hear their album hot on the heels of X-Factor... 

Hot on the heels? Reflection came out over 2 years after they were on the X-factor. It definitely wasn't "hot on the heels" of that. 

But that said, Reflection definitely had more of a build up. They'd released an EP first, they'd done tours and had singles and pre-release tracks earlier, and it was pushed back several times before it was finally released. And when it was, it wasn't really competing as hard as this might be. Especially for the market of the very young, the only big release that month had been Meghan's at the top (I'm counting Taylor towards the 2014 Q4 rush, even though she was #1 that week, and Drake's mixtape wasn't revealed as a commercial release yet). This is coming during a period where there seems to have been an onslaught of high profile releases week after week, and with just one main single.

Fifth Harmony is probably one of the biggest, if not the biggest, example of a major discrepancy between an online fanbase and presence and hard sales. The fact that it is five people on social media, combined with their angle of female fauxpowerment, it makes good clickbait articles for people like those who have dragged billboard.com into the literary abyss, but then you have to think about who is casually clicking and writing this stuff and who actually gives a damn. If you go back to the thread for when Reflection was released, I think there were some who thought it would sell more, but really for most acts selling 62k in hard sales in January without a major hit is good. It's just disproportionate with what may seem on the internet. That album only barely sold a subsequent 100k after that, even with a big radio hit emerging and a lot of performances. They're painted as a "big" act online for traffic purposes, but they're really not. They just have a core.

Even with all that though, I did expect them to at least hit the same range as last time. There would have been a bit of the buyers from the last debut skimmed off because teenagers are the most fickle usually, but a big radio hit (that's performed well in streaming and sales too), and generally a higher profile, would normally add some randos to it that would ultimately lead to a slightly higher amount (i.e. maybe around 70k or just below it when everyone was put together). I think if anything has hurt, it may be that this was released after only one main track when you consider who probably bought most of the last album.

[Choco]

Their previous album didn't really have legs so it's not terribly surprising, but I expected 100k.

[jdanton2]

their You Tube numbers are amazing . Worth It video 867,820,092 views and Work From Home video 429,779,249 views. both could pass a Billion this year . they have alot of fans outside of the US . their album hit #1 in over 50 countries in it's first day though missed it in the US and Canada .

[felipe]

May 30, 2016 15:05:59 GMT -5 kanimal said:

-- A lot of the analysis in this thread would make sense if Work From Home were judged in a vacuum. It's independently not much bigger than a song like Natalie La Rose's "Somebody," and no one would expect her to sell more than a few thousand albums.

The problem is that, in context, Fifth Harmony is supposed to be a major act that very much *is* connecting beyond the singles. Pound-for-pound, the group may have the most passionate fanbase in music: their social media engagement levels are insane (their network is about the same size as Meghan Trainor's, but look at the difference in average levels of re-Tweets/likes/comments), and the fanbase is almost radical in terms of vocalizing support + going to town on anyone who says anything negative about them.

They've also received a ridiculous level of media coverage, with most positioning them as one of the hottest things in music right now. Natalie La Rose didn't get anywhere NEAR the kind of press, cover stories, etc that they've been getting.

Obviously, we've seen time and time again that success on social media doesn't translate into real-world commercial success. So you shouldn't expect them to sell 200,000 albums just because they get a lot of re-Tweets. But it's also hard to look at them as a disposable singles act when the actual behavior of the fanbase suggests they have connected to an absurdly significant degree.

-- That core, passionate fanbase has grown significantly from the first album. Plus, you'd still expect even the most unknown of acts to develop fans and sell albums on the back of Worth It and Work From Home.  So, yes, the decline is bizarre and disappointing.

-- Also, this is a group with an international tour schedule that includes a lot of big venues (as in, high-four and sometimes five-figure capacities) with tickets at high price points.  Again, Natalie La Rose isn't touring big amphitheaters and arenas at $100/seat.  So there's supposed to be something "special" about the draw of this group that isn't manifesting in album sales.

-- Regarding the "album sales are declining" argument, that obviously doesn't apply to acts that are substantially bigger than they were when they released their last album. It's also not inevitable; we're a week removed from Blake Shelton enjoying a 50% increase album-to-album and in a week that may see Dierks Bentley post the biggest sales week of his career.

But even if we accept the "album sales are declining" argument, it's important to remember that STREAMING is supposed to be a major culprit. So, while we may see a decline in pure sales, there's no reason we should see a decline in total consumption -- sales are supposed to be transforming into streams. Yet there's no guarantee "7/27" will even match the 80K consumption units posted by "Reflection."

-- It's not even that I'm personally shocked by the performance (I figured they'd do more than the last album, but I didn't think they'd have, for instance, beaten Ariana had they remained on 5/20); it's more that I'm intrigued by the message this sends about the difficulty of selling recorded music in 2016.  Here you have an act that, from a strategic standpoint, did everything it was supposed to -- had some major, mainstream hit singles AND "connected" by developing a huge, rabid fanbase -- yet can't translate the support and recognition into album sales or even streams.

Exactly. Couldn't have said it better.

[Deleted]

Glove Slap @antigonerising

To be fair, 5H did have an EP or two with singles prior to their first album so there was something there to keep and grow their fan base, right?  I shouldn't have said 'hot on the heels' because that makes it sound like they dropped the album right after the show ended, my bad.  I agree with what both of you guys are saying. 

[areyoureadytojump]

5H up a bit:

hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=301302

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

NEW RELEASES: THAT'S A RAP, RAPTORS (UPDATE)

The week's two biggest debuts, by Capitol Nashville's Dierks Bentley and Epic's Fifth Harmony, are likely to come in at #2 and #3 on this week's Sales Plus Streaming chart behind YMCMB/Republic's streaming colossus, Drake.

Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville) 92-97k SPS, 80-85k albums
Fifth Harmony (Epic) 72-77k SPS, 50-55k albums

[jj99$ - - LeLe]

THE TOP 15, BROUGHT TO YOU BY DRAKE & DIERKS
YMCMB/Republic star Drake will once again be #1 on our SPS chart, for the fifth week in a row. However, Capitol Nashville's Dierks Bentley will debut at #1 in sales. Here’s how it looks for our last week in the Black Mold Office. That's right, kids; the HITS cesspool is moving—same shit, different hole.

SPS
Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 150-160k
*Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville) 90-100k
Beyoncé (Columbia) 90-100k
*Fifth Harmony (SYCO/Epic) 70-80k
Blake Shelton (Warner Bros. Nashville) 58-63k
Ariana Grande (Republic) 44-48k
Rihanna (Westbury Road/Roc Nation) 41-45k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 31-35k
Meghan Trainor (Epic) 27-31k
Chris Stapleton (Mercury Nashville) 25-28k
Twenty One Pilots (Fueled by Ramen) 24-27k
Prince (Warner Bros.) 23-26k
Justin Bieber (RBMG/Def Jam) 21-24k
Hamilton (Uptown) 20-23k
Kevin Gates (Bread Winners Association) [Islah] 20-23k
*Kevin Gates (Bread Winners Association) [Murder for Hire 2] 19-21k
G-Eazy (RCA) 19-21k
Kanye West (G.O.O.D./Def Jam) 19-21k

SALES
*Dierks Bentley (Capitol Nashville) 80-85k
Beyoncé (Columbia) 70-75k
*Fifth Harmony (SYCO/Epic) 50-55k
Blake Shelton (Warner Bros. Nashville) 47-51k
Drake (YMCMB/Republic) 42-46k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 21-25k
Ariana Grande (Republic) 19-22k
Chris Stapleton (Mercury Nashville) 19-22k
Prince (Warner Bros.) 18-21k
*Kevin Gates (Bread Winners Association) [Murder for Hire 2] 17-20k
*Thrice (Vanguard) 16-19k
Now 58 (NOW) 14-17k
Meghan Trainor (Epic) 14-17k
*Catfish and the Bottlemen (Capitol) 12-15k
Keith Urban (Capitol Nashville) 10-13k

*Debut


Beyonce pretty consistent now. Slay.

[#LisaRinna]

Come on for that sales increase Bey!

[when the pawn...]

She is killing it!

[Duca]

Ariana -85%.

Drake's pure sales are rather pitiful.

[shayonce]

lol at increase for beyonce, and #1 itunes album right now.