jayhawk1117
2x Platinum Member
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Posts: 2,758 
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 19, 2017 8:59:36 GMT -5
But for how long will that margin be so small? Despacito will soon start falling, and the discount is not helping. Too many people bought it. Although I doubt that it'll instantly dethrone it, it does look like the chance for that to happen is, well, in existence. And if the guys from Houston are going to play it EVERY HOUR, then sure, it has a deal. It'll be small enough for the 16th week. It has no airplay, like at all. 9.67 million after the first 2 days, basically nothing. A video isn't gonna come out between now and Thursday so streaming won't even be close. Sales is the only thing it'll be ahead in. The week after the 16th week ain't gonna matter if Taylor actually drops next week because it'll easily snatch number one. But if she doesn't, then Despacito will easily have a 17th week, Friends will undoubtedly drop in every category except airplay because that's just how 99% of week 2s go. |
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garrettlen
Gold Member
Joined: April 2017
Posts: 882
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Post by garrettlen on Aug 19, 2017 9:12:11 GMT -5
There's no way it out streams Despacito with no video. Despacito is still upwards of 45 million streams, even songs with music videos don't come close. Why would one with no real YouTube presence come closer? Does Friends have an airplay deal? If not there's no chance at a number one especially since it's not really dominant in sales, it's only between 15 and 20 percent ahead of Despacito. Won't make up for the sales and streaming gap though. I say it debuts at about 80 this week and jumps to 3 of 4 next week. Despacito is gonna get it's 16th week and then be dethroned by Chart Queen Taylor Swift Is it a given that Taylor is releasing on the 25th? If so, yeah, "Despacito" will tie OSD but fail to beat it. |
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#LisaRinna
Diamond Member
#LiteralLegender
Joined: August 2008
Posts: 42,905
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Post by #LisaRinna on Aug 19, 2017 9:19:21 GMT -5
YAS airplay!
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jayhawk1117
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2013
Posts: 2,758
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 19, 2017 9:48:40 GMT -5
There's no way it out streams Despacito with no video. Despacito is still upwards of 45 million streams, even songs with music videos don't come close. Why would one with no real YouTube presence come closer? Does Friends have an airplay deal? If not there's no chance at a number one especially since it's not really dominant in sales, it's only between 15 and 20 percent ahead of Despacito. Won't make up for the sales and streaming gap though. I say it debuts at about 80 this week and jumps to 3 of 4 next week. Despacito is gonna get it's 16th week and then be dethroned by Chart Queen Taylor Swift Is it a given that Taylor is releasing on the 25th? If so, yeah, "Despacito" will tie OSD but fail to beat it. No it's not a given but her deleting all of her social media and stuff like that so it seems like something's coming soon |
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fhas
3x Platinum Member
Three-time World Champions: 1992 - 2-1 vs. Barcelona, 1993 - 3-2 vs. Milan, 2005 - 1-0 vs. Liverpool
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Post by fhas on Aug 19, 2017 12:11:42 GMT -5
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Someone
Charting
Joined: April 2017
Posts: 226
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Post by Someone on Aug 19, 2017 12:45:36 GMT -5
This last quarter is going to be so busy. New maroon 5, Taylor swift, and em. |
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Post by kcdawg13 on Aug 19, 2017 13:09:14 GMT -5
This last quarter is going to be so busy. New maroon 5, Taylor swift, and em. Good. I am so ready for fall, this summer has been very dry for hits. |
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Aug 19, 2017 14:14:42 GMT -5
But for how long will that margin be so small? Despacito will soon start falling, and the discount is not helping. Too many people bought it. Although I doubt that it'll instantly dethrone it, it does look like the chance for that to happen is, well, in existence. And if the guys from Houston are going to play it EVERY HOUR, then sure, it has a deal. It'll be small enough for the 16th week. It has no airplay, like at all. 9.67 million after the first 2 days, basically nothing. A video isn't gonna come out between now and Thursday so streaming won't even be close. Sales is the only thing it'll be ahead in. The week after the 16th week ain't gonna matter if Taylor actually drops next week because it'll easily snatch number one. But if she doesn't, then Despacito will easily have a 17th week, Friends will undoubtedly drop in every category except airplay because that's just how 99% of week 2s go. How much points do you predict Despacito to have? |
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Post by .It'sGriffin on Aug 19, 2017 14:15:33 GMT -5
Also, who the fuck plays a song every hour?
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Post by kcdawg13 on Aug 19, 2017 14:20:54 GMT -5
Also, who the f**k plays a song every hour? Radio programmers that are paid to do it. Record companies pay radio stations to play their artists new song at the top of every hour, it's to guarantee great first week airplay numbers. |
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jarhys
Gold Member
Joined: March 2014
Posts: 958
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Post by jarhys on Aug 20, 2017 0:20:16 GMT -5
Despacito (original+remix) is back to iTunes #1, the chance of Friends dethroning it is very small now.
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85la
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Joined: July 2007
Posts: 3,919
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Post by 85la on Aug 20, 2017 1:28:08 GMT -5
What's to say Taylor won't release earlier in the week, like Monday or Tuesday? The Friday release cycle is being pretty much ignored now. If she releases by Tuesday, I would think even that might be enough to block Despacito from tying the record, unless it returns to no. 1 in future weeks.
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rainie
8x Platinum Member
the future disappears into memory
Joined: February 2016
Posts: 8,785
Pronouns: they / them
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Post by rainie on Aug 20, 2017 2:54:47 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I actually think there's a decent chance Taylor misses the #1 debut. Now is not a good time to be a female pop singer, and while Taylor is argueably the biggest one out there, Despacito is still going strong and should still have it beat on airplay and maybe streaming. Sales will likely be very strong, but I don't know if that'll be enough to get my Despacito. Think it'll debut at #2, then climb to #1 after the second or third week.
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Enigma.
Diamond Member
Joined: July 2007
Posts: 14,176
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Post by Enigma. on Aug 20, 2017 3:16:59 GMT -5
If Taylor releases, I think she'll be #1 on the week when Despacito is fighting for getting its 17th. She'll use the VMAs as a platform and that will boost sales and streaming a lot.
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MilesW1998
3x Platinum Member
Banned
#1 Song: Bad At Love by Halsey (1st Week)
Joined: January 2017
Posts: 3,713
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Post by MilesW1998 on Aug 20, 2017 3:20:20 GMT -5
If Taylor releases it Monday, she would need MASSIVE sales, and she would need to release a music video ASAP as well. She would also need streaming, because the only other thing that still is keeping Despacito alive is streaming. She is almost a guaranteed to get huge airplay as well, if 1989 and IDWLF has taught us anything.
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jayhawk1117
2x Platinum Member
Joined: July 2013
Posts: 2,758
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Post by jayhawk1117 on Aug 20, 2017 4:11:56 GMT -5
Taylor ain't crazy, there'd be 0 reason to do a mid week release with Despacito still going so strong after 4 freaking months at number one. Despacito having nearly 50 million streaming is gonna be a huge hurdle any song on the charts is gonna have to beat. Unless she drops the video day 1 or she out sells Hello, the number 1 won't be free.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2017 6:55:59 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I actually think there's a decent chance Taylor misses the #1 debut. Now is not a good time to be a female pop singer, and while Taylor is argueably the biggest one out there, Despacito is still going strong and should still have it beat on airplay and maybe streaming. Sales will likely be very strong, but I don't know if that'll be enough to get my Despacito. Think it'll debut at #2, then climb to #1 after the second or third week. I actually think the first week would be the best time for Taylor to dethrone Despacito. She's coming off a massive album, and all the Swifties are gonna be buying the song day one. Later success is gonna be an uphill battle due to the changes in pop music. Shake It Off debuted with over 500k sales, which might be enough to force that #1 debut pretty soon. |
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garrettlen
Gold Member
Joined: April 2017
Posts: 882
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Post by garrettlen on Aug 20, 2017 7:11:39 GMT -5
Also, who the f**k plays a song every hour? Radio programmers that are paid to do it. Record companies pay radio stations to play their artists new song at the top of every hour, it's to guarantee great first week airplay numbers. I call it I Heart Payola. |
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Post by Golden Bluebird on Aug 20, 2017 9:02:31 GMT -5
Overall AI (2017/08/20) - Top 20
1. (=) DJ KHALED F/RIHANNA/B. TILLER - Wild Thoughts (176.970) (+1.578)
2. (=) SHAWN MENDES - There's Nothing Holdin' Me Back (171.456) (+1.969)
3. (+1) CHARLIE PUTH - Attention (163.754) (+1.647)
4. (-1) LUIS FONSI - Despacito f/Daddy Yankee (163.478) (-1.881)
5. (=) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Believer (160.551) (+0.141)
6. (=) BRUNO MARS - That's What I Like (128.952) (-0.470)
7. (=) ED SHEERAN - Shape Of You (124.328) (-0.437)
8. (=) ZEDD & ALESSIA CARA - Stay (119.948) (-0.600)
9. (=) SAM HUNT - Body Like A Back Road (118.323) (-0.446)
10. (=) THE CHAINSMOKERS & COLDPLAY - Something Just Like This (110.332) (-0.967)
11. (=) FRENCH MONTANA - Unforgettable f/Swae Lee (108.337) (+1.473)
12. (=) NIALL HORAN - Slow Hands (97.666) (+1.988)
13. (=) CHILDISH GAMBINO - Redbone (92.813) (-1.166)
14. (=) KYGO X SELENA GOMEZ - It Ain't Me (84.949) (-0.007)
15. (=) LIAM PAYNE - Strip That Down f/Quavo (84.653) (+0.567)
16. (=) JAMES ARTHUR - Say You Won't Let Go (78.499) (+0.329)
17. (+1) CALVIN HARRIS - Feels f/Pharrell/Katy/Big Sean (76.075) (+0.603)
18. (-1) HALSEY - Now Or Never (75.516) (-2.407)
19. (=) DJ KHALED - I'm The One f/Bieber/Quavo/Chance/Lil Wayne (69.381) (-1.453)
20. (=) ED SHEERAN - Castle On The Hill (67.261) (-2.411)
Others:
23. (=) PORTUGAL. THE MAN - Feel It Still (60.943) (+1.641)
31. (+1) CARDI B - Bodak Yellow (47.729) (+1.217)
47. (+3) KHALID - Location (39.498) (+1.354)
56. (+3) P!NK - What About Us (35.918) (+2.936)
132. (+53) JUSTIN BIEBER & BLOODPOP - Friends (14.395) (+4.724) ***
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Gary
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2014
Posts: 45,891
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Post by Gary on Aug 20, 2017 9:12:51 GMT -5
Is Taylor confirmed to be releasing something or is that still just speculation because of the social media thing?
Although a #1 debut seems more likely with Taylor Swift than others, should be noted not a guarantee
It wasn't guaranteed with Justin Bieber either
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dajross6
Platinum Member
Joined: June 2009
Posts: 1,135
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Post by dajross6 on Aug 20, 2017 9:25:42 GMT -5
Taylor could probably take #1 no matter what day in the week she releases, as her 500k-600k sales would dwarf anyone else and help cover radio points (obviously) and streaming lost. I have a gut feeling she performs the song for the first time on the VMAs and goes for sale immediately afterwards. Nothing to back that, just a hunch I have.
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2017 9:28:30 GMT -5
Apparently she will release new song with video this upcoming Friday
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Gary
Diamond Member
Joined: January 2014
Posts: 45,891
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Post by Gary on Aug 20, 2017 9:32:42 GMT -5
What Is different now than the last time Taylor Swift debuted at #1?
Streaming
500-600K of anything seems unlikely unless she pulls her album off streaming services again
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Soulsista
Diamond Member
Room for one more, honey.
Joined: December 2006
Posts: 11,876
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Post by Soulsista on Aug 20, 2017 10:46:05 GMT -5
Billboard Top 10 from 55, 50, 45, and 40 years ago:
September 1, 1962
01 05 Sheila - Tommy Roe (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 The Loco-Motion - Little Eva
03 02 Breaking Up Is Hard To Do - Neil Sedaka
04 04 You Don't Know Me - Ray Charles
05 07 Party Lights - Claudine Clark
06 08 She's Not You - Elvis Presley
07 03 Things - Bobby Darin
08 06 Roses Are Red (My Love) - Bobby Vinton
09 12 Vacation - Connie Francis
10 10 Little Diane - Dion
September 2, 1967
01 01 Ode To Billie Joe - Bobbie Gentry (2nd of 4 weeks at #1)
02 02 All You Need Is Love - The Beatles
03 08 Reflections - Diana Ross & The Supremes
04 04 Light My Fire - The Doors
05 05 Baby I Love You - Aretha Franklin
06 14 Come Back When You Grow Up - Bobby Vee & The Strangers
07 07 Cold Sweat (Part 1) - James Brown & The Famous Flames
08 03 Pleasant Valley Sunday - The Monkees
09 09 You're My Everything - The Temptations
10 06 I Was Made To Love Her - Stevie Wonder
September 2, 1972
01 02 Alone Again (Naturally) - Gilbert O'Sullivan (5th of 6 weeks at #1)
02 03 Long Cool Woman (In a Black Dress) - The Hollies
03 04 I'm Still In Love With You - Al Green
04 01 Brandy (You're a Fine Girl) - Looking Glass
05 05 Hold Your Head Up - Argent
06 10 Baby Don't Get Hooked On Me - Mac Davis
07 07 Goodbye To Love - The Carpenters
08 09 You Don't Mess Around With Jim - Jim Croce
09 17 Rock And Roll (Part 2) - Gary Glitter
10 14 Back Stabbers - The O'Jays
September 3, 1977
01 01 Best Of My Love - The Emotions (3rd of 5 weeks at #1)
02 02 I Just Want To Be Your Everything - Andy Gibb
03 03 (Your Love Has Lifted Me) Higher And Higher - Rita Coolidge
04 04 Easy - The Commodores
05 05 Handy Man - James Taylor
06 08 Float On - The Floaters
07 07 Just a Song Before I Go - Crosby, Stills & Nash
08 09 Don't Stop - Fleetwood Mac
09 10 Strawberry Letter 23 - The Brothers Johnson
10 13 Telephone Line - Electric Light Orchestra
11 12 Barracuda - Heart
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Post by KeepDeanWeird on Aug 20, 2017 10:57:26 GMT -5
They've collaborated twice before and songs did nothing. |
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Soulsista
Diamond Member
Room for one more, honey.
Joined: December 2006
Posts: 11,876
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Post by Soulsista on Aug 20, 2017 11:16:20 GMT -5
Billboard Top 10 from 35, 30, 25, and 20 years ago:
September 4, 1982
01 03 Abracadabra - The Steve Miller Band (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 Eye Of The Tiger - Survivor
03 05 Hard To Say I'm Sorry - Chicago
04 04 Hold Me - Fleetwood Mac
05 06 Even The Nights Are Better - Air Supply
06 11 You Should Hear How She Talks About You - Melissa Manchester
07 02 Hurts So Good - John (Cougar) Mellencamp
08 08 Vacation - The Go-Go's
09 09 Wasted On The Way - Crosby, Stills & Nash
10 10 Take It Away - Paul McCartney
September 5, 1987
01 01 La Bamba - Los Lobos (2nd of 3 weeks at #1)
02 06 I Just Can't Stop Loving You - Michael Jackson & Siedah Garrett
03 02 Who's That Girl - Madonna
04 05 Only In My Dreams - Debbie Gibson
05 08 Didn't We Almost Have It All - Whitney Houston
06 03 Don't Mean Nothing - Richard Marx
07 10 Can't We Try - Dan Hill & Vonda Shepard
08 15 Here I Go Again - Whitesnake
09 07 Rock Steady - The Whispers
10 14 Doing It All For My Baby - Huey Lewis & The News
September 5, 1992
01 01 End Of The Road - Boyz II Men (4th of 13 weeks at #1)
02 02 Baby-Baby-Baby - TLC
03 03 November Rain - Guns N' Roses
04 06 Humpin' Around - Bobby Brown
05 04 This Used To Be My Playground - Madonna
06 11 Move This - Technotronic feat. Ya Kid K
07 09 Stay - Shakespear's Sister
08 05 Baby Got Back - Sir Mix-A-Lot
09 07 Giving Him Something He Can Feel - En Vogue
10 08 Just Another Day - Jon Secada
August 30, 1997
01 02 Mo Money Mo Problems - The Notorious B.I.G. feat. Puff Daddy & Mase (1st of 2 weeks at #1)
02 01 I'll Be Missing You - Puff Daddy & Faith Evans feat. 112
03 03 Quit Playing Games (With My Heart) - The Backstreet Boys
04 04 Semi-Charmed Life - Third Eye Blind
05 05 2 Become 1 - The Spice Girls
06 06 How Do I Live - LeAnn Rimes
07 08 Not Tonight - Lil' Kim feat. Da Brat, Left Eye, Missy Elliott & Angie Martinez
08 07 Never Make a Promise - Dru Hill
09 10 Do You Know (What It Takes) - Robyn
10 11 Sunny Came Home - Shawn Colvin
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Soulsista
Diamond Member
Room for one more, honey.
Joined: December 2006
Posts: 11,876
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Post by Soulsista on Aug 20, 2017 11:39:41 GMT -5
Billboard Top 10 Flashback:
August 31, 2002
01 01 Dilemma - Nelly feat. Kelly Rowland (3rd of 10 weeks at #1)
02 02 Hot In Herre - Nelly
03 03 Complicated - Avril Lavigne
04 04 Just a Friend 2002 - Mario
05 05 I Need a Girl (Part 2) - P. Diddy & Ginuwine feat. Loon, Mario Winans & Tammy Ruggieri
06 06 Gangsta Lovin' - Eve feat. Alicia Keys
07 13 Long Time Gone - The Dixie Chicks
08 07 Down 4 U - Irv Gotti presents The Inc. feat. Ja Rule, Ashanti, Charli Baltimore & Vita
09 14 Cleanin' Out My Closet - Eminem
10 09 Happy - Ashanti
September 1, 2007
01 01 Beautiful Girls - Sean Kingston (4th and final week at #1)
02 02 Big Girls Don't Cry - Fergie
03 03 The Way I Are - Timbaland feat. Keri Hilson
04 04 Hey There Delilah - The Plain White T's
05 06 Stronger - Kanye West
06 11 Crank That (Soulja Boy) - Soulja Boy
07 07 Bartender - T-Pain feat. Akon
08 05 Umbrella - Rihanna feat. Jay-Z
09 08 Make Me Better - Fabolous feat. Ne-Yo
10 09 A Bay Bay - Hurricane Chris
17 65 S.O.S. - The Jonas Brothers
September 1, 2012
01 72 We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together - Taylor Swift (1st of 3 weeks at #1)
02 01 Whistle - Flo Rida
03 02 Lights - Ellie Goulding
04 03 Call Me Maybe - Carly Rae Jepsen
05 04 Wide Awake - Katy Perry
06 08 Some Nights - fun.
07 05 Payphone - Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa
08 12 As Long As You Love Me - Justin Bieber feat. Big Sean
09 15 One More Night - Maroon 5
10 07 Titanium - David Guetta feat. Sia
September 3, 2016
01 06 Closer - The Chainsmokers feat. Halsey (1st of 12 weeks at #1)
02 01 Cheap Thrills - Sia feat. Sean Paul
03 02 Cold Water - Major Lazer feat. Justin Bieber & MØ
04 04 Heathens - Twenty One Pilots
05 03 This Is What You Came For - Calvin Harris feat. Rihanna
06 07 Ride - Twenty One Pilots
07 05 One Dance - Drake feat. Wizkid & Kyla
08 08 Don't Let Me Down - The Chainsmokers feat. Daya
09 09 Can't Stop The Feeling! - Justin Timberlake
10 11 Send My Love (To Your New Lover) - Adele
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Someone
Charting
Joined: April 2017
Posts: 226
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Post by Someone on Aug 20, 2017 12:38:54 GMT -5
simmnfierzig's Final Predictions
1 Despacito 553 (=) -3%
2 Wild Thoughts 456 (=) +16%
3 Unforgettable 321 (=)
4 Bodak Yellow 311 (+4)
5 Believer 300 (-1)
6 Attention 291 (-1)
7 There's Nothing Holdin Me Back 272 (-1)
8 That's What I Like 255 (-1)
9 Shape Of You 239 (=)
10 Body Like A Back Road 235 (+1)
11 I'm The One 230 (-1)
12 Bank Account 219 (=)
13 Strip That Down 217 (+2)
14 Congratulations 207 (=)
15 Slow Hands 205 (+2)
16 Redbone 200 (-3)
17 Humble 197 (-1)
18 XO Tour Lif3 183 (=)
19 Feels 177 (+2)
20 Praying 176 (+4)
21 Something Just Like This 176 (-2)
22 Mi Gente 168 (+1)
23 Stay 166 (-3)
24 Rake It Up 160 (-2)
25 Sorry Not Sorry 160 (+3)
26 Location 152 (+3)
27 Feel It Still 151 (+3)
28 What About Us 144 (+54)
29 Say You Won't Let Go 138 (-2)
30 Mask Off 134 (-5)
31 It Ain't Me 126 (=)
32 Loyalty 120 (=)
33 Now Or Never 119 (-7)
34 Versace On The Floor 117 (+9)
35 Magnolia 115 (-1)
36 Love Galore 114 (-1)
37 Everyday We Lit 111 (-1)
38 Castle On The Hill 109 (-5)
39 1-800-273-8255 107 (+11)
40 Small Town Boy 104 (-2)
41 In Case You Didn't Know 96 (=)
42 What Ifs 95 (-2)
43 No Promises 95 (-1)
44 Drowning 95 (-5)
45 Slippery 93 (-8)
46 Fetish 88 (+1)
47 Young Dumb & Broke 86 (+2)
48 It's A Vibe 84 (-2)
49 No Such Thing As A Broken Heart 84 (+2)
50 Drinkin Problem 82 (-2)
51 Crew 77 (+7)
52 The Race 76 (+18)
53 Heartache On The Dance Floor 75 (+1)
54 Thunder 75 (-1)
55 Felices Los 4 73 (+6)
56 Back To You 72 (+6)
57 Silence 71 (debut)
58 Butterfly Effect 71 (-3)
59 Whatever You Need 70 (-2)
60 Somebody Else Will 70 (+4)
61 2U 69 (-16)
62 Most Girls 68 (-2)
63 Do Re Mi 66 (+4)
64 Craving You 66 (-1)
65 DNA 66 (-6)
66 You Look Good 65 (+3)
67 Do I Make You Wanna 64 (-15)
68 My Girl 60 (-2)
69 Escapate Conmingo 59 (-1)
70 Glorious 59 (+1)
71 When It Rains It Pours 58 (+9)
72 Unforgettable Thomas Rhett 56 (+14)
73 Love 56 (-1)
74 The Weekend 56 (+1)
75 Flatliner 55 (-19)
76 Malibu 52 (-3)
77 Honest 51 (=)
78 First Day Out 50 (=)
79 It Ain't My Fault 49 (+12)
80 All The Pretty Girls 49 (+12)
81 New Rules 49 (+2)
82 Reminder 49 (-17)
83 Privacy 47 (-4)
84 They Don't Know 46 (+5)
85 More Girls Like You 44 (debut)
86 Patty Cake 44 (-10)
87 4 AM 43 (+6)
88 Wish I Knew You 43 (=)
89 Every Little Thing 43 (+9)
90 Bad Liar 43 (-16)
91 For Her 42 (+6)
92 It's Goin' Down 42 (+4)
93 Untouchable 41 (debut)
94 I Could Use A Love Song 41 (debut)
95 B.E.D. 40 (-1)
96 Perplexing Pegasus 38 (-12)
97 Mama 37 (debut)
98 Marmalade 37 (debut)
99 Angel 37 (debut)
100 Havana 37 (-1)
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inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,095
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Post by inverse on Aug 20, 2017 12:47:08 GMT -5
Aww come on that Logic song goes up by 11 and No Promises goes down? They better have miscalculated that one because that would suuuuucccckkkkk
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Aug 20, 2017 13:10:31 GMT -5
^Well for the former, its video came out so that helped its streaming numbers. I do love No Promises and would like to see it reach as least the top 40.
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