2019 Grammy Awards

[wavey.]

Whoo thank God these are predictions lol.

[musicfix18]

It's like he went down the Pop charts and penciled in anyone with a current top 40 hit into a relevant Big 4 category...

[Deleted]

Camila is this year's Harry Styles, I see. (Well let me a little more fair to her than that - she has a decent chance at a pop nom or two.)

[Choco]

Yeah, Camila's team is good enough that she'll probably get a pop album nod, probably. With Havana she would have much stronger chances for the song awards. Also she has kinda faded into the background a bit in the last couple months (i.e. after they tried to follow up NBTS with Sangria Wine and it flopped). Her (almost annoying) visibility was a big part of why she was even in the conversation at all.

[ampersand]

As someone who doesn’t follow her closely, I have absolutely no clue what Camila has put out since NBTS. I liked her album, but I haven’t had much of an incentive to revisit it in months. She’ll need to revigorate interest if she expects to get any noms in the general field.

[owenlovesmusic]

The Grammy prediction guy in the article doesn't even predict the noms, he literally just names all the popular/well written songs/albums this year that have a chance at being nominated.

[shayonce]

ikr. he always does that. just name all the hit single/albujm and critically hit albums, then throw some country name.

[filthy]

And we often predict very subjectively

[theflying]

Am I the only one that finds the "Now that Taylor is more likely to be in the top 8, she's more likely to squeak out a win" thing bizarre?

reputation is not winning Album of the Year. It's just not. There's utterly no way. It's flat out not liked enough.

[Deleted]

Jul 15, 2018 23:47:50 GMT -5 theflying said:

Am I the only one that finds the "Now that Taylor is more likely to be in the top 8, she's more likely to squeak out a win" thing bizarre?

reputation is not winning Album of the Year. It's just not. There's utterly no way. It's flat out not liked enough.

You're wrong 

[14887fan]

Jul 16, 2018 0:50:31 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Jul 15, 2018 23:47:50 GMT -5 theflying said:

Am I the only one that finds the "Now that Taylor is more likely to be in the top 8, she's more likely to squeak out a win" thing bizarre?

reputation is not winning Album of the Year. It's just not. There's utterly no way. It's flat out not liked enough.

You're wrong 

They're really not wrong. At least not regarding Swift's chances at AOTY this year. reputation really isn't nearly as critically revered as Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, or even KOD. Even if she makes it in and there were to be some split voting in the category this year, I don't think she'll be the one to take the prize. It simply isn't as good of a record as her previous efforts (esp. those that won).

[shayonce]

yeah, she has high chance of getting nomination with 8 nominee now.
but there's no big hype around it, no big commercial success(in her standard), no big critic success.
and her being 2 time winner doesn't help it. I won't be surprised If committee doesn't give her nomination, so other hot albums/act and genre artist can get it.

[theflying]

It doesn't have Album of the Year momentum. It could get in the nomination category as an easy pick, but no one's thinking it's the album of the year. It's just not. It didn't connect with the masses the way it would need to.

Delicate is way more likely to get in Record and Song of the Year, though. I don't see it winning those either.

[owenlovesmusic]

I just realized that Beautiful Trauma is eligible for this year since it was released in October 2017. I doubt it would receive an album of the year nomination but maybe pop vocal album.

[Choco]

reputation getting an album of the year nod would still be a win for Taylor, even if she has very little chance of actually winning.

[wayneashleymusic]

This is an appropriate place to share a post I wrote last year. Have the Grammys done enough to tackle their own misogynist issues?? Hoping for some progress in the 2019 awards cycle, and a big part of that would be to recognize work being done by female producers and engineers.



(originally posted on my blog Texas Leftist texasleftist.com/2018/01/as-grammys-take-center-stage-music-industry-must-also-confront-timesup/)


As Grammys Take Center Stage, Music Industry Must Also Confront #TimesUp

Billed as ‘Music’s Biggest Night’, the Grammy Awards, the very public face of the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences, o have become a staple of awards season. Musicians all over the planet follow the nominees with anticipation, watch the annual event and dream of one day being able to share the Grammy stage, thank the Recording Academy, and take home the gold.

The Grammy Awards also pride themselves on being much more than an award show. As one of the most prominent representations of the Music Industry, it’s no surprise that the artists and creators within are often committed to be on the leading edge of important social change. As TMZ reports, this Sunday’s show is no different…

The white rose movement at the Grammys has florists scrambling to fill TONS of orders … the demand is so overwhelming they’ve had to turn away business.

We talked to a bunch of NYC flower shops who tell us they’ve fielded a crazy number of requests for white roses that Grammy attendees plan to wear Sunday at Madison Square Garden. As you know … guests are wearing them to show solidarity with the Time’s Up movement. It’s music’s version of the black gowns at the Golden Globes.

Kelly Clarkson, Halsey, Cyndi and Rita Ora are among the many artists who plan to take part. We’re told Warner Music Group alone ordered 100 white roses for their Grammy festivities.

But in the #TimesUp era, visual statements are truly just the beginning, and they alone fall far short of the systemic change needed in the Music Industry. Much like Hollywood, the professional world of music is full of gender bias, inequity, prejudice and misogyny. The world has watched as artist Kesha had to fight for her very career against alleged abuser and long-time music Producer Dr. Luke… just one out of hundreds of tragic stories. But even in the less extreme, women in the music industry still have far fewer options than their male counterparts.

This may seem shocking to some, as some of the most powerful women in entertainment today– Rihanna, Taylor Swift, Katy Perry, Adele– come from the world of music. But as lead artists and mega-stars, they are brave, bold exceptions to a tragic rule.

Take the field of Music Production, where female perspectives remain woefully few in 2018. For a music project, such as an album, a Producer is the equivalent of the Director in a film… they take the songs as written, and do what’s necessary to bring them into fruition. In the entire 43 year history of The Grammys, a woman has never won for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical. Though music legend Janet Jackson made history in 1990 as the first woman ever nominated for a Producer of the Year award, sadly only 7 other women have been as widely recognized for their Production work… Paula Cole, Sheryl Crow, Lauryn Hill, Mariah Carey, Lisa Coleman, Wendy Melvoin and Lauren Christy. Yes, in 43 years, only 8 women have been nominated!

This year’s nominees?? All male.

And that’s not for a lack of trying. Industry powerhouses like Madonna, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift have produced throughout their respective discographies. Many prominent female artists have copious production work not only for themselves but also other artists, including Missy Elliott and Linda Perry, among the most prolific. But time and again, these voices are locked out of the production booth, and therefore locked out of an important seat at music’s most powerful table. In this arena, the non-classical sphere should take an important cue from their counterparts in classical music.

As we all know, misogyny is more than just the locking of doors to deny opportunity, favor or understanding. It also shows up in how those in how those qualities are distributed in a controversy. Speaking of Jackson, most Americans probably remember one of the biggest stories of 2004– the infamous wardrobe malfunction, and massive fallout which occurred from the Super Bowl XXXVIII halftime show.

In the midst of the firestorm were two artists… Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake, both of whom were scheduled to appear at the Grammy Awards. Ms. Jackson, a 5-time Grammy winner multiple nominee and industry icon, was asked not to attend just before the show, while Timberlake not only kept his invitation, but went on to win major awards that night and practically laughed off the situation. Jackson, in the midst of being lambasted by all corners of the press, also had to endure a cold shoulder from the music industry’s signature organization.

The Grammys have yet to apologize to Ms. Jackson, and she has not attended the awards show since that time.

Over the last year, a tectonic shift has begun in the very structure of American society. As we move away from the ‘default settings’ of resting power into the mostly male archetype, it’s hugely important that the music community stands up and speaks out on Grammy night. And after the celebration and parties conclude, it will be time to do some real work towards equality and respect.

Time’s Up.

[14887fan]

Totally spaced on Brandi Carlile, but I could see her being an AOTY contender for By the Way, I Forgive You. Could also definitely see "The Joke" getting into ROTY/SOTY.

[blanksnake17]

Taylor swift will sweep. She will have a grammy friendly single smashing around the voting period. I wouldn’t be surprised if she sweeped the GF+Pop tbh.

Ariana, hmm... has she ever even got a Grammy? I doubt Sweetener would beat Reputation in Pop. Reputation is certainly the pop front-runner.

AOTY:
Votes will split, The lord will win.

[jenglisbe]

Jul 16, 2018 1:41:09 GMT -5 14887fan said:

Jul 16, 2018 0:50:31 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

You're wrong 

They're really not wrong. At least not regarding Swift's chances at AOTY this year. reputation really isn't nearly as critically revered as Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, or even KOD. Even if she makes it in and there were to be some split voting in the category this year, I don't think she'll be the one to take the prize. It simply isn't as good of a record as her previous efforts (esp. those that won).

Critics don't vote for the Grammys, though. If they did we'd have already seen Beyonce, Kendrick, etc nab an AOTY win. That doesn't mean I'm saying Taylor Swift will win (I don't think she will), it just means I don't see the relevancy of her reviews as compared to, say, Kacey Musgraves. 24k Magic had the lowest metacritic score of the 5 nominees last year and won. Swift has a much better chance of winning AOTY than Musgraves.

[14887fan]

Jul 27, 2018 13:05:00 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jul 16, 2018 1:41:09 GMT -5 14887fan said:

They're really not wrong. At least not regarding Swift's chances at AOTY this year. reputation really isn't nearly as critically revered as Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, or even KOD. Even if she makes it in and there were to be some split voting in the category this year, I don't think she'll be the one to take the prize. It simply isn't as good of a record as her previous efforts (esp. those that won).

Critics don't vote for the Grammys, though. If they did we'd have already seen Beyonce, Kendrick, etc nab an AOTY win. That doesn't mean I'm saying Taylor Swift will win (I don't think she will), it just means I don't see the relevancy of her reviews as compared to, say, Kacey Musgraves. 24k Magic had the lowest metacritic score of the 5 nominees last year and won. Swift has a much better chance of winning AOTY than Musgraves.

It plays a role. Bruno's win happened in part to a lot of different factors, one of which being its commercial success. reputation has sold exceptionally, obviously, but it hasn't produced a hit since its debut, which was over a year ago. Another factor that benefitted 24K Magic was split-voting. Jay-Z, Kendrick, and Childish all split the R&B/Hip Hop vote, leaving Lorde & Bruno. And given that AOTY was Lorde's only nomination last year, plus the fact that the year before saw the insanely controversial 25 sweep over Lemonade, Bruno's win was damn-near written in the stars.
And I disagree entirely; Swift doesn't have a better chance at AOTY this year than Musgraves, nor does she have a better chance at it than Janelle Monae, Cardi B, or even J. Cole. This project of hers simply hasn't been as memorable or impactful as her previous winning (or nominated) efforts. I absolutely think she'll get nominated, but her chances are significantly lower than those of Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, etc. And while I don't know if they'll get nominated or not, if EVERYTHING IS LOVE gets nominated, I think even that would stand a better chance at winning than reputation.

[collegedropout]

Jul 27, 2018 13:32:37 GMT -5 14887fan said:

Jul 27, 2018 13:05:00 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Critics don't vote for the Grammys, though. If they did we'd have already seen Beyonce, Kendrick, etc nab an AOTY win. That doesn't mean I'm saying Taylor Swift will win (I don't think she will), it just means I don't see the relevancy of her reviews as compared to, say, Kacey Musgraves. 24k Magic had the lowest metacritic score of the 5 nominees last year and won. Swift has a much better chance of winning AOTY than Musgraves.

It plays a role. Bruno's win happened in part to a lot of different factors, one of which being its commercial success. reputation has sold exceptionally, obviously, but it hasn't produced a hit since its debut, which was over a year ago. Another factor that benefitted 24K Magic was split-voting. Jay-Z, Kendrick, and Childish all split the R&B/Hip Hop vote, leaving Lorde & Bruno. And given that AOTY was Lorde's only nomination last year, plus the fact that the year before saw the insanely controversial 25 sweep over Lemonade, Bruno's win was damn-near written in the stars.
And I disagree entirely; Swift doesn't have a better chance at AOTY this year than Musgraves, nor does she have a better chance at it than Janelle Monae, Cardi B, or even J. Cole. This project of hers simply hasn't been as memorable or impactful as her previous winning (or nominated) efforts. I absolutely think she'll get nominated, but her chances are significantly lower than those of Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, etc. And while I don't know if they'll get nominated or not, if EVERYTHING IS LOVE gets nominated, I think even that would stand a better chance at winning than reputation.

Plus Bruno had paid his dues. He had been a contant presence with the Grammys and it was a chance to finally reward him in AOTY. For Taylor to win again, she had to take it to another level. She had a great year but they won't vote for her a third time unless it's extraordinary. Even Adele will have the same high expectations too (though she is an exception to literally every rule).

[jenglisbe]

Jul 27, 2018 13:32:37 GMT -5 14887fan said:

Jul 27, 2018 13:05:00 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Critics don't vote for the Grammys, though. If they did we'd have already seen Beyonce, Kendrick, etc nab an AOTY win. That doesn't mean I'm saying Taylor Swift will win (I don't think she will), it just means I don't see the relevancy of her reviews as compared to, say, Kacey Musgraves. 24k Magic had the lowest metacritic score of the 5 nominees last year and won. Swift has a much better chance of winning AOTY than Musgraves.

It plays a role. Bruno's win happened in part to a lot of different factors, one of which being its commercial success. reputation has sold exceptionally, obviously, but it hasn't produced a hit since its debut, which was over a year ago. Another factor that benefitted 24K Magic was split-voting. Jay-Z, Kendrick, and Childish all split the R&B/Hip Hop vote, leaving Lorde & Bruno. And given that AOTY was Lorde's only nomination last year, plus the fact that the year before saw the insanely controversial 25 sweep over Lemonade, Bruno's win was damn-near written in the stars.
And I disagree entirely; Swift doesn't have a better chance at AOTY this year than Musgraves, nor does she have a better chance at it than Janelle Monae, Cardi B, or even J. Cole. This project of hers simply hasn't been as memorable or impactful as her previous winning (or nominated) efforts. I absolutely think she'll get nominated, but her chances are significantly lower than those of Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, etc. And while I don't know if they'll get nominated or not, if EVERYTHING IS LOVE gets nominated, I think even that would stand a better chance at winning than reputation.

What makes you think Musgraves can win when Stapleton couldn't with much better sales and coming off winning other awards?

[jenglisbe]

Jul 27, 2018 13:38:25 GMT -5 collegedropout said:

Jul 27, 2018 13:32:37 GMT -5 14887fan said:

It plays a role. Bruno's win happened in part to a lot of different factors, one of which being its commercial success. reputation has sold exceptionally, obviously, but it hasn't produced a hit since its debut, which was over a year ago. Another factor that benefitted 24K Magic was split-voting. Jay-Z, Kendrick, and Childish all split the R&B/Hip Hop vote, leaving Lorde & Bruno. And given that AOTY was Lorde's only nomination last year, plus the fact that the year before saw the insanely controversial 25 sweep over Lemonade, Bruno's win was damn-near written in the stars.
And I disagree entirely; Swift doesn't have a better chance at AOTY this year than Musgraves, nor does she have a better chance at it than Janelle Monae, Cardi B, or even J. Cole. This project of hers simply hasn't been as memorable or impactful as her previous winning (or nominated) efforts. I absolutely think she'll get nominated, but her chances are significantly lower than those of Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, etc. And while I don't know if they'll get nominated or not, if EVERYTHING IS LOVE gets nominated, I think even that would stand a better chance at winning than reputation.

Plus Bruno had paid his dues. He had been a contant presence with the Grammys and it was a chance to finally reward him in AOTY. For Taylor to win again, she had to take it to another level. She had a great year but they won't vote for her a third time unless it's extraordinary. Even Adele will have the same high expectations too (though she is an exception to literally every rule).

Again, I said I don't think Swift will win. I just don't see what makes Musgraves a better bet.

[14887fan]

Jul 27, 2018 14:25:07 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jul 27, 2018 13:32:37 GMT -5 14887fan said:

It plays a role. Bruno's win happened in part to a lot of different factors, one of which being its commercial success. reputation has sold exceptionally, obviously, but it hasn't produced a hit since its debut, which was over a year ago. Another factor that benefitted 24K Magic was split-voting. Jay-Z, Kendrick, and Childish all split the R&B/Hip Hop vote, leaving Lorde & Bruno. And given that AOTY was Lorde's only nomination last year, plus the fact that the year before saw the insanely controversial 25 sweep over Lemonade, Bruno's win was damn-near written in the stars.
And I disagree entirely; Swift doesn't have a better chance at AOTY this year than Musgraves, nor does she have a better chance at it than Janelle Monae, Cardi B, or even J. Cole. This project of hers simply hasn't been as memorable or impactful as her previous winning (or nominated) efforts. I absolutely think she'll get nominated, but her chances are significantly lower than those of Golden Hour, Dirty Computer, Invasion of Privacy, etc. And while I don't know if they'll get nominated or not, if EVERYTHING IS LOVE gets nominated, I think even that would stand a better chance at winning than reputation.

What makes you think Musgraves can win when Stapleton couldn't with much better sales and coming off winning other awards?

Apples and oranges. Stapleton was going against 1989, a complete goliath. Musgraves will be going against reputation, a record that has hardly been able to match 1989 in any arena, minus touring.

Everything is completely circumstantial; comparing what Golden Hour may or may not be able to achieve against reputation is 100% not the same as comparing what literally any album failed to do against 1989.

[jenglisbe]

Jul 27, 2018 14:41:47 GMT -5 14887fan said:

Jul 27, 2018 14:25:07 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

What makes you think Musgraves can win when Stapleton couldn't with much better sales and coming off winning other awards?

Apples and oranges. Stapleton was going against 1989, a complete goliath. Musgraves will be going against reputation, a record that has hardly been able to match 1989 in any arena, minus touring.

Everything is completely circumstantial; comparing what Golden Hour may or may not be able to achieve against reputation is 100% not the same as comparing what literally any album failed to do against 1989.

I know that a country album hasn't won AOTY since 2007, and that was the Dixie Chicks under special circumstances. The only other country album (depending how you count Swift) in the past 20 years to win AOTY was the O Brother soundtrack, which was a huge commercial success. Additionally, when is the last time the critical favorite of the nominees won AOTY? Daft Punk was at least close to Lamar, but they also had a huge hit on the album. In general you might have to go back to Arcade Fire.

What remains to be seen is how having 8 nominees affects things.

[owenlovesmusic]

I think that Jay-Z and Beyonce's Everything Is Love actually has a decent chance of winning Album of the Year, despite it's incredibly low sales. The Grammy staff should definitely nominate the album because they seem to like Jay and Beyonce, giving them many nominations for all their albums. Beyonce is the most nominated female artist and is the female with the 2nd most amount of wins. Jay-Z is the 3rd most nominated in Grammy history (74!!) and the 11th most award artist. The two of the have 43 Grammy's all together and 137 nominations. Everything Is Love is one of the most critically acclaimed albums of the year, not that it boosts the likelihood of winning that much. The big reason they would win is because they would get the votes from the R&B pool and Beyonce fans AND the Hip Hop pool and Jay-Z fans.

[Deleted]

I don't see how Nice For What loses SOTY/ROTY, Drake had a massive year and NFW has universal praise

[blanksnake17]

Jul 28, 2018 6:03:59 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

I don't see how Nice For What loses SOTY/ROTY, Drake had a massive year and NFW has universal praise

I see delicate, perfect ft beyonce, no tears left to cry, something else that hasn’t been released yet (rihanna lead?) and gods plan beating it

[jenglisbe]

Jul 28, 2018 6:03:59 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

I don't see how Nice For What loses SOTY/ROTY, Drake had a massive year and NFW has universal praise

Plenty of artists with a massive year and critical praise have lost ROTY/SOTY. Look at Rihanna with “Umbrella,” OutKast with “Hey Ya,” Beyonce with “Crazy in Love,” etc. R&B and hip-hop in particular have a hard time in those categories.

[Deleted]

Golden Hour has better chances of winning than reputation in a head to head - that is really just about reading the temperature in the room and recognizing that the wind is not blowing in Taylor's favor this time around, nor should it - but truthfully we can't assess either's full chances without knowing who the other six nominees surrounding them are. a reputation win would be a major upset that is largely dependent on a) no other pop album competition and b) all other strong contenders being subject to vote splitting. Kacey is disadvantaged by country albums typically having very little reach outside of their normal country-voter pool, but she also has the likely advantage of no other country album being in the running even in an 8-nominee field.

EIL really should not be nominated/win - that would be as problematic as a reputation win, if not more so. (I.e. it will feel like tokenism/the wrong kind of affirmative action.) No one needs that headache.

Jul 28, 2018 10:57:55 GMT -5 jenglisbe said:

Jul 28, 2018 6:03:59 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

I don't see how Nice For What loses SOTY/ROTY, Drake had a massive year and NFW has universal praise

Plenty of artists with a massive year and critical praise have lost ROTY/SOTY. Look at Rihanna with “Umbrella,” OutKast with “Hey Ya,” Beyonce with “Crazy in Love,” etc. R&B and hip-hop in particular have a hard time in those categories.

RR&B and hip-hop do struggle with all of the major categories - in particular, hip-hop struggles somewhat to even get nominated steadily in SOTY - but I don't think those songs are the greatest examples as they were all subject to vote splitting. Hey Ya and CIL were nominated for ROTY in the same year along with Lose Yourself and BEP's Where Is the Love; meanwhile, Umbrella was nominated the same year as Irreplaceable. This happened quite a bit in the 2000s, actually. But then, I think the aughts are kind of their own thing and I find myself looking at them very differently from the way I look at any other time frame.

We still don't know if Drake will even bother submitting, but if he does I see him losing any majors he's nominated for b/c he doesn't seem to care enough to put in the necessary effort to hustle votes. (And not that it matters much, but if I were him I'd submit In My Feelings over NFW anyway.)