Billboard Hot 100: 4/28/2018

[filthy]

Guess J. Cole's album was a succes

[crazyb]

I posted this in the Spotify Thread, but I'll post it here too

Spotify Update

1. KOD - J. Cole 4,233,070
2. Photograph - J. Cole 3,561,388
3. ATM - J. Cole 3,408,026
4. Motiv8 - J. Cole 3,357,778
5. Kevin's Heart - J. Cole 3,200,312
6. The Cut Off - J. Cole 3,059,136
7. 1985 - Intro to "The Fall Off" - J. Cole 2,886,877
8. Nice for What - Drake 2,812,306
9. BRACKETS - J. Cole 2,775,277
10. Intro - J. Cole 2,519,357
11. FRIENDS - J. Cole 2,283,551
12. Once an Addict - Interlude 2,351,956
13. Window Pain Outro - J. Cole 2,275,517
14. God's Plan - Drake 1,867,100
15. No Tears left To Cry - Ariana Grande 1,783,330

45. Levels Avicii 620,836
46. Wake Me Up Avicii 613,383

[filthy]

Did he break any records?

[fhas]

J. Cole   I. N. S. A. N. E. Very happy for him!

[fhas]

Apr 21, 2018 10:44:42 GMT -5 filthy said:

Did he break any records?

First album with six 3M+ songs?

[Glove Slap]

J. Cole could hit #1 if KOD keeps those numbers up.

[crazyb]

"KOD" has the second biggest day ever behind "God's Plan" (4,739,798)

[filthy]

Apr 21, 2018 10:45:14 GMT -5 fhas said:

Apr 21, 2018 10:44:42 GMT -5 filthy said:

Did he break any records?

First album with six 3M+ songs?

I don't know about that, but it's probably true. The album recieved 36 million streams in The US only. That has got to be a record too

[TakeMe]

Apr 21, 2018 5:36:47 GMT -5 pnobelysk said:

^this argument works in concept but loses credit when we look at zedd stay vs the middle

Many people don’t like Middle for the same reasons...it’s just another Stay, but it still is a good song overall though.

[filthy]

Apr 21, 2018 10:45:53 GMT -5 Glove Slap said:

J. Cole could hit #1 if KOD keeps those numbers up.

LET US PRAY

[fhas]

Apr 21, 2018 10:51:43 GMT -5 filthy said:

Apr 21, 2018 10:45:14 GMT -5 fhas said:

First album with six 3M+ songs?

I don't know about that, but it's probably true. The album recieved 36 million streams in The US only. That has got to be a record too

More Life: no song with 3M streams. 
DAMN.: HUMBLE. 4M + DNA. 3.6M.

KOD may be the first album to have at least three songs with more than 3M streams. Historic.

[fhas]

For most urban artists, Spotify accounts for ~40% of their first week on-demand streams. If that's the case with J. Cole, KOD (song) debuted yesterday with 10.6M on-demand streams.

[Au$tin]

Apr 19, 2018 10:39:02 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Apr 19, 2018 9:46:54 GMT -5 Gary said:

Now that the Drake singles are dominating, do people still think Ariana will debut at #1 over and above Drake?

Assuming the song is well received, Ariana should have no problem getting #1 in digital sales, and she'll probably have a pretty strong debut (for 2018) from there. 75-125k seems like a good ballpark. I could even see her going towards 150k if it's spectacular.

In airplay, she'll have a strong debut. According to our resident radio insider, she'll have multiple radio deals with the song being sent immediately to three major formats (pop, rhythmic, and hot AC). I could see a debut of 20 million and over the course of her first full week pull in around 50-60 million AI.

Streaming is what is going to be interesting to watch. Ariana has never been to #1 on streaming. She is a streaming darling, however only in long term. Her totals are great, but she's never had a single week of great streaming. She just streams consistently in the upper regions for lengthy periods and has slow declines. However, the DW era definitely upped her star power, so her first week of streaming could be pretty high, especially if the video drops the same day, which seems possible since news of the video is leaking.

Over on Spotify, I believe she'll debut at least top two on her first day, if not #1, but then fall a bit as the week progresses. Apple Music should hold similar results. If she drops the video, she should have no problems snatching #1 there first day and she can probably pretty easily hold it for the week to be #1 on YouTube. All of this would probably have her debuting at #2 (with video) or #3 (without video) in streaming. Of course, if the song is widely accepted as great or the video is a touching memorial that goes viral, that could drastically improve the numbers. But let's pretend we know what the song sounds like, and it's just a general good song well received by her fans and pop listeners, leaving her with the numbers stated above.

She would have a good advantage in sales, but a disadvantage in streaming and airplay. If she opens up at #2 in streaming, above GP, then she'd be above GP in both metrics, but the airplay deficit behind GP might be enough for it to pass it in total points. I just don't think, under normal circumstances, she'll debut any higher than #3. The two Drake songs are high on all three components, and Ariana will have that airplay deficit that will eat into her digital sales lead.

Now of course, if the song overperforms for whatever reason, given a viral video or a touching moment in the vein of something like Praying or Piece by Piece, #1 could be in the cards.

It's just a good thing they moved up her release because there's no way she'd be able to hold her own against Post Malone next week. His album bomb is going to be insane and Psycho will get an incredible boost, I don't see any scenario where it misses out on #1 barring a surprise Adele/Ed Sheeran/Drake collab release.

Welp, she's performing like I thought she would on airplay and sales. Streaming, though? The video is doing what I thought it would, but it's FAR below where I thought it would be on Apple Music and a bit below on Spotify (in terms of streams, position it's drastically below, but J. Cole is drastically overperforming!). A #1 debut is probably out of the question unless it really picks up the pace in streaming.

I doubt it will even get to #3 with J. Cole's enormous streaming. He might log a track above Ariana, if not debut at #1 himself!

[Au$tin]

Apr 21, 2018 10:49:41 GMT -5 crazyb said:

"KOD" has the second biggest day ever behind "God's Plan" (4,739,798)

And because GP didn't debut with that number, it climbed to it, KOD holds the record for biggest debut.

[areyoureadytojump]

[Deleted]

King Cole.

[Gary]

According to chartdata - biggest opening days on US Spotify

1. KOD - 4.2
2 Look What You Made Me Do 3.8
3. DNA. - 3.6
4. Photograph - J COle 3.55
5. Call Out My Name 3.5

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

That J. Cole debut in Spotify is insane.

[jayhawk1117]

Wow guess I was wrong and the J Cole hype is real. This furthers my expectations for scorpion in June. If J Cole is getting 3 million with 6 songs I can't imagine how massive Drake is gonna debut with

[kcdawg13]

If J Cole is doing these kind of numbers, I can't wait to see what kind of damage Post Malone is gonna do next week. Pray for Spotify because it's gonna get fucked.

[jayhawk1117]

We got post, a month later Kanye a week later Kanye and Cudi probably followed by Drake. Spotify is getting destroyed these next few weeks lol

[renaboss]

J Cole has a chance of debuting at #1?

I quit, I give up.

[Deleted]

I know it's literally Day 1, but if these numbers hold up, or are roughly similar, how many J.Cole songs do we expect to see in the Top 10? And how many in the Top 20?

[willapted33]

Apr 21, 2018 17:11:23 GMT -5 @vilementality said:

I know it's literally Day 1, but if these numbers hold up, or are roughly similar, how many J.Cole songs do we expect to see in the Top 10? And how many in the Top 20?

I can see KOD, ATM, Photograph, Motiv8 all going top 20, and maybe Kevin's Heart and the Cut Off

[fhas]

Apr 21, 2018 17:11:23 GMT -5 @vilementality said:

I know it's literally Day 1, but if these numbers hold up, or are roughly similar, how many J.Cole songs do we expect to see in the Top 10? And how many in the Top 20?

I tried to estimate how he would debut if the songs had the exact Friday streaming numbers for the entire week (obviously this is not going to happen) and added sales points for his top 3-4 songs and it was super funny.

He would've the top 2 songs, three songs in the top 5, six in the top 10 and twelve (the entire album) in the top 20.

Meant To Be would fall from #3 to #10 but with more points than it had when it was #2.

[Harx]

Apr 21, 2018 17:36:29 GMT -5 fhas said:

Apr 21, 2018 17:11:23 GMT -5 @vilementality said:

I know it's literally Day 1, but if these numbers hold up, or are roughly similar, how many J.Cole songs do we expect to see in the Top 10? And how many in the Top 20?

I tried to estimate how he would debut if the songs had the exact Friday streaming numbers for the entire week (obviously this is not going to happen) and added sales points for his top 3-4 songs and it was super funny.

He would've the top 2 songs, three songs in the top 5, six in the top 10 and twelve (the entire album) in the top 20.

Meant To Be would fall from #3 to #10 but with more points than it had when it was #2.

The ultimate album bomb

...until Drake in June at least


...or until Post Malone next week


these are kind of getting out of hand

[Abbaschand]

Being honest, we Indonesians almost know next to nothing about J. Cole. We always one step behind about rap/hip-hop music.

[fhas]

Apr 21, 2018 18:40:38 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

Being honest, we Indonesians almost know next to nothing about J. Cole. We always one step behind about rap/hip-hop music.

Brazil is the same thing. It's one of the (if not the) countries where US/UK/Canada pop music is bigger. A pop fan said he never heard of J. Cole when I posted about the Spotify biggest debut record on a Facebook group.

[renaboss]

Apr 21, 2018 18:40:38 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

Being honest, we Indonesians almost know next to nothing about J. Cole. We always one step behind about rap/hip-hop music.

Lucky you. xD

[renaboss]

Apr 21, 2018 19:13:07 GMT -5 fhas said:

Apr 21, 2018 18:40:38 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

Being honest, we Indonesians almost know next to nothing about J. Cole. We always one step behind about rap/hip-hop music.

Brazil is the same thing. It's one of the (if not the) countries where US/UK/Canada pop music is bigger. A pop fan said he never heard of J. Cole when I posted about the Spotify biggest debut record on a Facebook group.

Didn't know you were from Brazil. When Ariana was trending on Twitter yesterday literally every tweet I saw was from BR stans. They even orchestrated an event in which people would apparently use US IP's to stream and view Ariana.