Taylor Swift's biggest hits

[nickd]

I wanted to try to come up witha way 

So I tried to come up with an equation that more or less fits Simon Faulk's point system for calculating billboard hits (1 point = 0.9M AI, 165,000 streams, 750 sales). Then I tried to come up with a formula that more or less fits his data of how many points a #1, #2, #10, #40, #100 etc get.

This is the equation I came up with (x = Billboard Hot 100 position)
(2.55-LOG(x))^1.3*120

So that means points for reaching the following positions

1. 405
2. 344
3. 310
5. 267
10. 212
20. 160
40. 112
100. 55

Then used that to calculate the total points for her singles' chart runs. This includes non-album tracks and features.

Rank. Points - Song (BBH100 peak / chart run)

1. 10758 - Shake It Off                                             (#1x4 / 50 weeks)
2. 9230 - You Belong With Me                                    (#2 / 50 weeks)
3. 9025 - Love Story                                                 (#4 / 49 weeks)
4. 8386 - Blank Space                                               (#1x7 / 36 weeks)
5. 6871 - I Knew You Were Trouble                             (#2 / 36 weeks)
6. 5954 - Teardrops On My Guitar                               (#13 / 48 weeks)
7. 5637 - We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together     (#1x3 / 24 weeks)
8. 5484 - Bad Blood                                                   (#1 / 25 weeks)
9. 5356 - I Don't Wanna Live Forever                          (#2 / 24 weeks)
10. 4969 - Style                                                        (#6 / 32 weeks)
11. 4671 - Wildest Dreams                                         (#5 / 26 weeks)
12. 4636 - Our Song                                                  (#16 / 36 weeks)
13. 4571 - Delicate                                                    (#12 / 35 weeks)
14. 3919 - Mine                                                         (#3 / 23 weeks)
15. 3768 - Look What You Made Me Do                        (#1x3 / 20 weeks)
16. 2803 - Two Is Better Than One                              (#18 / 21 weeks)
17. 2731 - Back To December                                     (#6 / 20 weeks)
18. 2697 - White Horse                                              (#13 / 22 weeks)
19. 2465 - 22                                                            (#20 / 20 weeks)
20. 2420 - ...Ready For It?                                         (#4 / 20 weeks)
21. 2255 - Fifteen                                                      (#23 / 21 weeks)
22. 2219 - Highway Don't Care                                    (#22 / 19 weeks)
23. 2165 - Today Was A Fairytale                                 (#2 / 18 weeks)
24. 2159 - Mean                                                         (#11 / 20 weeks)
25. 2075 - Ours                                                          (#13 / 20 weeks)
26. 1949 - Everything Has Changed                             (#32 / 20 weeks)
27. 1863 - Tim McGraw                                               (#40 / 20 weeks)
28. 1857 - Red                                                           (#6 / 22 weeks)
29. 1842 - Should've Said No                                      (#33 / 20 weeks)
30. 1839 - Picture To Burn                                          (#28 / 20 weeks)
31. 1810 - Sparks Fly                                                 (#17 / 20 weeks)
32. 1661 - Begin Again                                               (#7 / 20 weeks)
33. 1599 - Both of Us                                                 (#18 / 19 weeks)
34. 1560 - Eyes Open                                                 (#19 / 13 weeks)
35. 1530 - Safe & Sound                                             (#30 /17 weeks)
36. 1447 - End Game                                                 (#18 / 14 weeks)
37. 1059 - Fearless                                                     (#9 / 12 weeks)
38. 994 - Out of the Woods                                         (#18 / 10 weeks)
39. 886 - The Story of Us                                            (#41 / 12 weeks)
40. 780 - Crazier                                                        (#17 / 8 weeks)
41. 575 - New Romantics                                             (#46 / 7 weeks)
42. 575 - You're Not Sorry                                           (#11 / 5 weeks)





Also, just for fun, I calculated the numbers for Shape of You and with its 65 week chart run and 12 weeks at #1, it had 16052 points.

[nickd]

To show the impact of longevity vs front-loaded singles

We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together (5637 points)
Top 10: 13 weeks
Top 20: 17 weeks
Top 30: 21 weeks
Top 40: 22 weeks
Top 50: 23 weeks
Total: 24 weeks

Teardrops On My Guitar (5954 points)
Top 10: 0 weeks
Top 20: 10 weeks
Top 30: 18 weeks
Top 40: 25 weeks
Top 50: 39 weeks
Total : 48 weeks

Look What You Made Me Do (3768 points)
Top 10: 8 weeks
Top 20: 8 weeks
Top 30: 9 weeks
Top 40: 12 weeks
Top 50: 13 weeks
Total: 20 weeks

[nickd]

Delicate is at 1060 points by the way. Not much yet, but as Teardrops On My Guitar shows, you can still get lots of points with a #13 peak if you have longevity - which is reflected in the Billboard Year End charts.

Better Now from Post Malone has 666 points and is projected to fall behind Delicate this week on the Hot 100. It might ultimately still end up being a bigger hit since it hasn't had a single push, but just shows that album bombs aren't going to do anything on the Hot 100.

[owenlovesmusic]

Very interesting. Thanks.

[deepston]

35. 1447 - End Game (#18 / 14 weeks)

[ListenToItTwice]

Holy math! Thanks for doing this :)

Jun 4, 2018 17:29:14 GMT -5 nickd said:

Delicate is at 1060 points by the way.

Is that including the chart that officially releases tomorrow, which has Delicate at #28?

[nickd]

Jun 4, 2018 17:51:56 GMT -5 deepston said:

35. 1447 - End Game (#18 / 14 weeks)

14 weeks is not a good look. Also the #18 was just for one week, Tim McGraw had better longevity in the middle of the Hot 100 chart hence why it got more points despite a peak of only #40.

Tim McGraw
86 - 87 - 77 - 72 - 68 - 65 - 61 - 51 - 51 - 47 - 48 - 45 - 44 - 46 - 45 - 48 - 40 - 43 - 40 - 43

End Game
86 - 83 - 39 - 49 - 42 - 40 -39 - 36 - 18 - 30 - 43 - 45 - 65 - 91


This could be a slightly better way of comparing hits to the Year End charts since you don't have the issue of straddling two Billboard years.

For more context (as I said I had Shape of You had 16052 points), here's how some current hits are doing


Rockstar: 10151 pts
Finesse: 5008 pts
The Middle: 3898 points
Psycho: 3798 points
Never Be The Same: 3510 points
Whatever It Takes: 2215 points

[nickd]

Jun 4, 2018 18:09:47 GMT -5 ListenToItTwice said:

Jun 4, 2018 17:29:14 GMT -5 nickd said:

Delicate is at 1060 points by the way.

Is that including the chart that officially releases tomorrow, which has Delicate at #28?

Nope, with tomorrow's chart, Delicate should be around 1195 points.

[Bwol]

I love this

[Deleted]

I knew you were there trouble deserved better

New Romantics did so bad 💔

[Mayman]

This is very cool, thanks for posting this.

[aznsinger]

How is Delicate now?

[nickd]

Jul 13, 2018 8:11:59 GMT -5 aznsinger said:

How is Delicate now?

1907 points with last week's position of #23, if it charts at #15 this week that's another 181 points. For now it's right in between End Game and Ready For It but barring an absolutely catastrophic collapse on radio it should overtake Ready For It as well.

[nickd]

Jul 13, 2018 8:11:59 GMT -5 aznsinger said:

How is Delicate now?

Now at 2485 points and 20 weeks, putting it ahead of Ready For It and 22. Depending how things go on AC and Pop/HAC recurrent airplay and if single #5 can give the album a bit of a boost on Spotify, I still think Delicate has a shot at overtaking Look What You Made Me Do and Mine's total points. It would need to stay in the top 50 for another 10 weeks or so for that to happen.

[insen_13]

update for Delicate please. Thank you!

[nickd]

Sept 30, 2018 18:29:37 GMT -5 insen_13 said:

update for Delicate please. Thank you!

3751 points so far, and should get around 130-135 points when its position on the latest Hot 100 chart is published some time today. So it'll definitely be a bigger Hot 100 hit than LWYMMD and Mine and has a shot at catching up to Our Song.

Out of all her hits, Delicate is now her biggest hit ever on HAC. It's also among her top 10 biggest hits on AC and overall radio but I fully expect it to move up a few spots on both of those lists.

[insen_13]

Thanks!