Billboard Hot 100: 6/23/2018

[wicked]

Jun 14, 2018 2:52:03 GMT -5 kcdawg13 said:

Scorpion is gonna be huge, Drake is gonna own the singles and album chart for the rest of the summer. I'm predicting either Nice For What or I'm Upset will be #1 the week of the album bomb, God's Plan will probably jump back into the Top 3. Imagine Drake having the entire Top 3!

Yes, Indeed

[kanfad]

Jun 14, 2018 17:42:21 GMT -5 fhas said:

Jun 14, 2018 16:55:17 GMT -5 velaxti said:

I think it will help him for the Hot 100, because a lot of his competition for top 10 spots (e.g. Boo'd Up, I Like It, Girls Like You, maybe even Psycho) do better on Youtube than on paid On-Demand streaming. Whilst his album tracks will do overwhelmingly better on paid On-Demand streaming than on Youtube.

However, I don't know if Billboard will change the weight of streams to counteract the the change to streaming. If they don't, then the sales and airplay dominant songs will do a bit better in comparison to now.

It would be interesting if someone could estimate what last week's top 10 would have looked like with the new rules? I think the data for the proportion of people who pay for Spotify subscriptions is out there somewhere. We don't know if there would be significant differences between the listening habits of the people who pay and the people who use it for free, but you could go under the assumption that the most popular songs would be almost the same between each group for simplicity's sake.

I actually reckon it won't make a massive difference overall.

1. (=) Psycho 32,100 (36,000 with the current formula)
2. (=) Nice For What 31,000 (34,200)
3. (+2) God's Plan 26,000 (29,100)
4. (=) Girls Like You 25,900 (29,700)
5. (-2) I Like It 25,100 (29,700)
6. (+4) The Middle 23,400 (24,900)
7. (+1) Yikes 22,600 (25,000)
8. (+3) All Mine 22,500 (24,900)
9. (+3) Meant To Be 22,300 (24,500)
10. (-3) This Is America 21,100 (26,100)

11. (-5) Boo'd Up 21,000 (26,300)
12. (+1) No Tears Left To Cry 20,900 (23,300)
13. (-4) Lucid Dreams 19,900 (25,000)
14. (+1) Yes Indeed 19,000 (22,100)
15. (-1) FRIENDS 18,400 (22,100)
16. (=) Ghost Town 18,100 (20,100)

Spotify: 67% paid / 33% free (source: HDD)
Other On-Demand services: 90% paid / 10% free (just an estimative because SoundCloud is the only other hybrid on-demand service and it's not that popular)

On-demand paid: streams/1,500
YouTube/On-demand free: streams/2,500
Programmed: streams/3,000

I'm also assuming that Billboard won't increase sales or radio influence and that'd result in a 10-12% decrease in points for all the songs. I wonder if they're going to adjust the points for the Year-end chart.

Hopefully if they do increase the influence of any other metric, it'll be only radio. That'll be the final nail in the coffin for sales.

This has a very different effect than i thought it would. Airplay heavy songs going higher than i would have guessed.
Shame about Boo'd Up tho. Hoping it'll catch up on spotify and radio by july

[fhas]

Jun 14, 2018 18:34:24 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Jun 14, 2018 17:42:21 GMT -5 fhas said:

1. (=) Psycho 32,100 (36,000 with the current formula)
2. (=) Nice For What 31,000 (34,200)
3. (+2) God's Plan 26,000 (29,100)
4. (=) Girls Like You 25,900 (29,700)
5. (-2) I Like It 25,100 (29,700)
6. (+4) The Middle 23,400 (24,900)
7. (+1) Yikes 22,600 (25,000)
8. (+3) All Mine 22,500 (24,900)
9. (+3) Meant To Be 22,300 (24,500)
10. (-3) This Is America 21,100 (26,100)

11. (-5) Boo'd Up 21,000 (26,300)
12. (+1) No Tears Left To Cry 20,900 (23,300)
13. (-4) Lucid Dreams 19,900 (25,000)
14. (+1) Yes Indeed 19,000 (22,100)
15. (-1) FRIENDS 18,400 (22,100)
16. (=) Ghost Town 18,100 (20,100)

Spotify: 67% paid / 33% free (source: HDD)
Other On-Demand services: 90% paid / 10% free (just an estimative because SoundCloud is the only other hybrid on-demand service and it's not that popular)

On-demand paid: streams/1,500
YouTube/On-demand free: streams/2,500
Programmed: streams/3,000

I'm also assuming that Billboard won't increase sales or radio influence and that'd result in a 10-12% decrease in points for all the songs. I wonder if they're going to adjust the points for the Year-end chart.

Hopefully if they do increase the influence of any other metric, it'll be only radio. That'll be the final nail in the coffin for sales.

This has a very different effect than i thought it would. Airplay heavy songs going higher than i would have guessed.
Shame about Boo'd Up tho. Hoping it'll catch up on spotify and radio by july

Last week is kinda hard to compare because it was an album bomb week and all the positions were really close in points with All Mine and Meant To Be being the strongest #11 and #12 of the year, respectively.

[owenlovesmusic]

Gambino and Nas both didn’t drop. Could KSG or Ye get a week at #1?

[hot100predictions]

I just heard Growing Pains by: Alessia Cara and I'm hyped. Radio will play the HELL out of this song and with Billboard's new formula she can easily get a Top 10 song by late August or September. Maybe even #1, this is the one. Stream and buy this is her song, way better than any of her old stuff.

[hot100predictions]

I'm telling you guys all at Billboard, Gary. The new formula can open up the people and bring pop music back to what it was again! Growing Pains is the first song to start the new, "Pop" era and NTLTC will also be bigger on the Billboard Hot 100 these next few weeks. But yes Drake will dominate, but Alessia can pull a "Closer" with this track. Play the Waiting game and just wait for airplay to play the hell out of this song, 130-140M a week or two seems possible on airplay. It's a special single. And I'm not even a Alessia Cara fan hahaha. Pop Crave reminded this even came out. Great work and can't wait to see how this track does. I like it.

[kanfad]

Omg will you chill lol. I just heard it and yeah it sounds like something that'll give radio a huge hard on.

Idk about NTLTC increasing too much on the hot 100 in the next few weeks, as its streaming isnt getting any better. Unless you were specifically talking about radio

[iHype.]

Jun 14, 2018 23:04:56 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

Gambino and Nas both didn’t drop. Could KSG or Ye get a week at #1?

Nas is dropping considering he has a live stream going on. It's just going to drop mid-day like Kanye's projects did.

And I think it's safe to say Post will be higher than both Kanye's projects this week. He's doing 90-100K per week, and Ye is expected to drop to 75K second week let alone 3rd week, while KSG did less first week than Ye so its going to drop even lower than 75K second week.

[Sherane Lamar]

Jun 15, 2018 0:44:14 GMT -5 iHype. said:

Jun 14, 2018 23:04:56 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

Gambino and Nas both didn’t drop. Could KSG or Ye get a week at #1?

It's just going to drop mid-day like Kanye's projects did.

Hated that. 

[Abbaschand]

Jun 15, 2018 1:01:52 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Jun 15, 2018 0:44:14 GMT -5 iHype. said:

It's just going to drop mid-day like Kanye's projects did.

Loved that. 

[J. Rob]

Seems like the rule changes are always implemented to protect Pop artists and slow down Urban and Rhythmic dominance. To be honest it feels pretty unfair. What's popular is what's popular, regardless of who listens to it.

[Golden Bluebird]

kworb.net/airadio/

*** = Dropped or added a format

Overall AI (Top 20) - 2018/06/15
1. (=) ZEDD/MAREN MORRIS/GREY - The Middle (158.894) (-0.348)
2. (=) POST MALONE - Psycho f/Ty Dolla $ign (140.240) (-0.109)
3. (=) CAMILA CABELLO - Never Be The Same (130.785) (-1.525)
4. (=) DRAKE - Nice For What (121.991) (+0.430)
5. (=) DRAKE - God's Plan (117.757) (-0.697)
6. (=) BEBE REXHA - Meant To Be f/F.G.L. (113.562) (-0.989)
7. (=) ARIANA GRANDE - No Tears Left To Cry (105.542) (+1.659)
8. (+1) TAYLOR SWIFT - Delicate (101.262) (+1.605)
9. (+1) SHAWN MENDES - In My Blood (99.494) (+0.757)
10. (+2) BAZZI - Mine (98.754) (+0.807)
11. (-3) IMAGINE DRAGONS - Whatever It Takes (97.604) (-2.317)
12. (-1) MAROON 5 - Wait (94.887) (-3.185)
13. (=) ED SHEERAN - Perfect (84.723) (-0.523)
14. (=) MARSHMELLO & ANNE-MARIE - Friends (82.976) (+0.234)
15. (=) DUA LIPA - New Rules (75.753) (-0.489)
16. (=) MAX - Lights Down Low (74.342) (-0.606)
17. (=) THE WEEKND & KENDRICK LAMAR - Pray For Me (69.290) (-1.836)
18. (+2) ELLA MAI - Boo'd Up (67.256) (+1.193)
19. (+2) DAVID LEE MURPHY/KENNY CHESNEY - Everything's Gonna Be Alright (66.536) (+1.134)
20. (-1) LUKE COMBS - One Number Away (65.980) (-0.692)

Outside the Top 20:
22. (=) CARDI B - I Like It (64.254) (+2.717)
51. (+1) KHALID X NORMANI - Love Lies (36.682) (+1.095)
54. (+8) MAROON 5 - Girls Like You (35.225) (+2.593)

[chartslovergermany]

Delicate rose to #8 at radio,yesss I think she will easily hit top 5(or might even get one,maybe)

[Leo ✔]

Crazy to see Drake with two songs on top 5 on radio-

[Sherane Lamar]

Jun 15, 2018 8:38:50 GMT -5 Abbaschand said:

Jun 15, 2018 1:01:52 GMT -5 Sherane Lamar said:

Loved that. 

Why would you like that albums drop in a confusing time that makes it difficult to gauge first day streams? And also difficult to enjoy the album the moment it drops. 

[Mayman]

Jun 15, 2018 10:30:29 GMT -5 J. Rob said:

Seems like the rule changes are always implemented to protect Pop artists and slow down Urban and Rhythmic dominance. To be honest it feels pretty unfair. What's popular is what's popular, regardless of who listens to it.

I see what you're saying, but at the same time I think this benefits urban artists. Pop acts typically do better on YouTube than on services like Spotify and Apple Music. It is the opposite case for urban artists. If YouTube will have less weight than that could hurt pop songs.

[J. Rob]

It'll benefit crossover Urban artists who rely on big hit singles (Post, Uzi, XXX, Migos) but it hurts the ones who don't cater to Pop radio and rely more on Urban radio and album sales (J. Cole, SZA, Gambino, Ella Mai, etc...).

[wicked]

Jun 15, 2018 12:05:39 GMT -5 J. Rob said:

It'll benefit crossover Urban artists who rely on big hit singles (Post, Uzi, XXX, Migos) but it hurts the ones who don't cater to Pop radio and rely more on Urban radio and album sales (J. Cole, SZA, Gambino, Ella Mai, etc...).

It really depends man. Bad and boujee has much bigger YouTube streaming the any other service. J cole would’ve had a stronger album bomb and Redbone would’ve gone top10 if YouTube wasn’t counted as much.

It really depends on each song

[fhas]

Wow. #GoLucidDreams

www.billboard.com/articles/columns/chart-beat/8461223/juice-wrld-lucid-dreams-challenging-for-no-1-hot-100

[fhas]

50M+ streams for Lucid Dreams is unexpected.

[Mayman]

I was rooting for Lucid Dreams to hit #1, but not before I Like It!

[korbel16]

Oh shit i knew he’d go number 1 but this fast ? Organic hit! song might be the song of the summer. Congrats !

[kcdawg13]

Funny enough, Black Beatles did the same kind of jump during it's run. 16-9-1.

Lucid Dreams. 15-9-1.

[hot100predictions]

I remember in early May when my friend told me to listen to Lucid Dreams, I never thought it would be a big hit, up until I seen it climbing the Spotify chart. It jumped from 74 to 35 in one week on the Hot 100 and now here we are at week 6/23 and Lucid dreams is challenging #1, likely will take the spot now. I find it the “Cinderella” hit of the year.

[hot100predictions]

Juice WRLD's 'Lucid Dreams' Challenging for No. 1 on Billboard Hot 100 Next Week
By: Gary T.

The rapper's debut hit should surge to over 50 million U.S. streams for the week.

Juice WRLD's breakthrough hit "Lucid Dreams" is vying for No. 1 on next week's Billboard Hot 100 chart (dated June 23); the Hot 100 blends weekly streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music.

The song became the first Hot 100 top 10 for the 19-year-old Chicago rapper on the latest, June 16-dated chart, surging 15-9. (He gained early attention on SoundCloud, where he began posting music in 2015, and recently signed with Interscope Records.)

According to building Nielsen Music data, "Dreams" should sport over 50 million U.S. streams in the tracking week ending June 14, accounting for the bulk of its Hot 100 activity, and become Juice WRLD's first No. 1 on the Streaming Songs chart, rising from No. 2 (35.9 million).

Aiding the song's steady ascent: its official video, directed by hip-hop tastemaker Cole Bennett.

"Dreams" should also increase to over 10,000 downloads sold (in the week ending June 14) and a relatively nominal 1 million in radio audience (in the tracking week ending June 17).

Juice WRLD Scores First Top 10 on Billboard Hot 100 With 'Lucid Dreams'
Those sums could be enough for the song to soar to No. 1 on the Hot 100, dethroning Post Malone's "Psycho," featuring Ty Dolla $ign, which rose 2-1 on the June 16 chart.

Juice WRLD's other Hot 100 entry to date, "All Girls Are the Same," ranks at No. 49 (after reaching No. 47), while his debut studio album, Goodbye & Good Riddance (which houses both tracks), hits a new high (8-6) on the Billboard 200.

Highlights of next week's Hot 100 will post on Billboard.com Monday (June 18), with all charts posting the following day (June 19).

[hot100predictions]

I remember in early May when my friend told me to listen to Lucid Dreams, I never thought it would be a big hit, up until I seen it climbing the Spotify chart. It jumped from 74 to 35 in one week on the Hot 100 and now here we are at week 6/23 and Lucid dreams is challenging #1, likely will take the spot now. I find it the “Cinderella” hit of the year.

[kcdawg13]

Jun 15, 2018 13:30:35 GMT -5 hot100predictions said:

I remember in early May when my friend told me to listen to Lucid Dreams, I never thought it would be a big hit, up until I seen it climbing the Spotify chart. It jumped from 74 to 35 in one week on the Hot 100 and now here we are at week 6/23 and Lucid dreams is challenging #1, likely will take the spot now. I find it the “Cinderella” hit of the year.

I heard Lucid Dreams back in March on Soundcloud because a friend suggested it to me, I thought it was alright but never #1 material. It didn't grow instantly so I kind of forgot about it, until a few weeks ago when it started breaking out.

I am surprised, I'll tell you that. For once I can finally say I knew the song before it was a hit. Hipster status 100!

[Mayman]

I think I listened to Lucid Dreams the week it debuted on the Hot 100. I instantly added it to my playlist because I really liked it. Glad that it is about to hit #1.

[Harx]

Would rather see I Like It going #1 but it's been a while since a nobody had a #1 hit so I'm here for the Juice guy

[thelegends]

Jun 15, 2018 13:05:31 GMT -5 wicked said:

Jun 15, 2018 12:05:39 GMT -5 J. Rob said:

It'll benefit crossover Urban artists who rely on big hit singles (Post, Uzi, XXX, Migos) but it hurts the ones who don't cater to Pop radio and rely more on Urban radio and album sales (J. Cole, SZA, Gambino, Ella Mai, etc...).

It really depends man. Bad and boujee has much bigger YouTube streaming the any other service. J cole would’ve had a stronger album bomb and Redbone would’ve gone top10 if YouTube wasn’t counted as much.

It really depends on each song

But you then got BLABR which would have gone top 5 if that was implemented last year.