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Post by Mayman on Jun 15, 2018 13:48:44 GMT -5
At the same time though, Bad and Boujee was a viral hit, which is why it did well on YouTube.
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jun 15, 2018 13:54:28 GMT -5
Not Post Malone possibly being dethroned by someone who sounds so similar to him.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 13:59:27 GMT -5
Why do people like Lucid Dreams so much? I see nothing great about it.
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annoymous1
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Post by annoymous1 on Jun 15, 2018 14:03:30 GMT -5
I hope Lucid Dreams doesn't cockblock I Like it from hitting #1.
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jun 15, 2018 14:04:08 GMT -5
Not Post Malone possibly being dethroned by someone who sounds so similar to him. But that's the funny part |
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Post by chartslovergermany on Jun 15, 2018 14:38:03 GMT -5
I hope Lucid Dreams doesn't cockblock I Like it from hitting #1. yeah cardi should go #1 this week |
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filthy
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Post by filthy on Jun 15, 2018 15:00:44 GMT -5
Why do people like Lucid Dreams so much? I see nothing great about it. and no offense but Juice WRLD has a terrible flow as well |
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Jun 15, 2018 15:07:15 GMT -5
I think it will help him for the Hot 100, because a lot of his competition for top 10 spots (e.g. Boo'd Up, I Like It, Girls Like You, maybe even Psycho) do better on Youtube than on paid On-Demand streaming. Whilst his album tracks will do overwhelmingly better on paid On-Demand streaming than on Youtube. However, I don't know if Billboard will change the weight of streams to counteract the the change to streaming. If they don't, then the sales and airplay dominant songs will do a bit better in comparison to now. It would be interesting if someone could estimate what last week's top 10 would have looked like with the new rules? I think the data for the proportion of people who pay for Spotify subscriptions is out there somewhere. We don't know if there would be significant differences between the listening habits of the people who pay and the people who use it for free, but you could go under the assumption that the most popular songs would be almost the same between each group for simplicity's sake. I actually reckon it won't make a massive difference overall. 1. (=) Psycho 32,100 (36,000 with the current formula) 2. (=) Nice For What 31,000 (34,200) 3. (+2) God's Plan 26,000 (29,100) 4. (=) Girls Like You 25,900 (29,700) 5. (-2) I Like It 25,100 (29,700) 6. (+4) The Middle 23,400 (24,900) 7. (+1) Yikes 22,600 (25,000) 8. (+3) All Mine 22,500 (24,900) 9. (+3) Meant To Be 22,300 (24,500) 10. (-3) This Is America 21,100 (26,100) 11. (-5) Boo'd Up 21,000 (26,300) 12. (+1) No Tears Left To Cry 20,900 (23,300) 13. (-4) Lucid Dreams 19,900 (25,000) 14. (+1) Yes Indeed 19,000 (22,100) 15. (-1) FRIENDS 18,400 (22,100) 16. (=) Ghost Town 18,100 (20,100) Spotify: 67% paid / 33% free (source: HDD) Other On-Demand services: 90% paid / 10% free (just an estimative because SoundCloud is the only other hybrid on-demand service and it's not that popular) On-demand paid: streams/1,500 YouTube/On-demand free: streams/2,500 Programmed: streams/3,000 I'm also assuming that Billboard won't increase sales or radio influence and that'd result in a 10-12% decrease in points for all the songs. I wonder if they're going to adjust the points for the Year-end chart. THANK YOU SO MUCH!!! I'm surprised at how much of a difference it makes. However, as you said, the songs at the top are grouped much more closely than usual (e.g. extremely weak #1 and extremely strong #11). So I guess a small shift in the top 10 can cause a jump of a few places, whilst in more standard weeks with the songs spread out the gaps between each position would be bigger on average. About your assumption that Billboard won't increase sales or radio. Well, they would be crazy to. The change they're making to the formula already has the side effect of essentially increasing the proportion of sales and airplay in the chart. I assume that's why The Middle and Meant To Be seemed to have benefitted. If Billboard were to do anything with sales and airplay, they would most likely decrease them to try and get their proportions similar to how they are now (if they did this, it makes the year-end charts a bit easier, because they can use a simple multiplier on songs from either before or after the change, and it wouldn't look so weird like the 2012 year-end chart did with the songs that peaked at the beginning of the year all being lower than expected). However, I think they might keep them the same. I think they might reason that sales will fall and streaming will increase anyway. Also, I think record label people might be trying to pressure Billboard to do it anyway. Youtube I think is actually the area that is most difficult for them to influence (although they do have ways of course). They can't be enjoying that. |
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Jun 15, 2018 15:25:34 GMT -5
Yeah, Hot 100 is def serving 1998 vibes now.
"Lucid Dreams" going #1 with little airplay support from a virtually unknown new artist is similar to "Lately" going #1 with barely any airplay and it also being the group's debut single.
Not saying it'll be as weak of a #1 as Lately though.
Also, the artist behind LD was born December 1998. That's the most recent artist born to have topped the Hot 100.
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Jun 15, 2018 15:28:52 GMT -5
Would rather see I Like It going #1 but it's been a while since a nobody had a #1 hit so I'm here for the Juice guy I mean Bodak Yellow was Cardi’s first hot 100 entry and that went to #1. Plus while they were big names in their respective communities, Luis Fonsi, Daddy Yankee, and Childish Gambino didn’t have too much success on the hot 100 before their #1s, which all happened less then a year ago. |
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Glove Slap
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Post by Glove Slap on Jun 15, 2018 15:29:53 GMT -5
Cardi wasn't a nobody, she already had a profile.
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 15, 2018 15:31:19 GMT -5
Those three all do other things though. Latin artists and actors may not get alot of Hot 100 hits
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Post by chartslovergermany on Jun 15, 2018 15:49:52 GMT -5
I don't want that lucid goes to #1,because I want to see I like it at the top,Nice for what wouldn't be that bad either :)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 16:08:00 GMT -5
At least post is only getting one week on top, he deserved zero
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Sherane Lamar
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Post by Sherane Lamar on Jun 15, 2018 16:22:25 GMT -5
Cardi wasn't a nobody, she already had a profile. In terms of music, Cardi was a completely unknown figure. What was Cardi's claim to fame before Bodak Yellow? Being on like The Real World or something? |
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korbel16
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Post by korbel16 on Jun 15, 2018 16:39:52 GMT -5
Cardi wasn't a nobody, she already had a profile. In terms of music, Cardi was a completely unknown figure. What was Cardi's claim to fame before Bodak Yellow? Being on like The Real World or something? she had that one vine where a hoe never gets cold then got a little popular with love and hip hop but still almost unknown to the music industry |
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jun 15, 2018 16:43:19 GMT -5
Would rather see I Like It going #1 but it's been a while since a nobody had a #1 hit so I'm here for the Juice guy I mean Bodak Yellow was Cardi’s first hot 100 entry and that went to #1. Plus while they were big names in their respective communities, Luis Fonsi, Daddy Yankee, and Childish Gambino didn’t have too much success on the hot 100 before their #1s, which all happened less then a year ago. But do you really expect Juice WRLD to blow up afterwards like Cardi did |
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Gary
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Post by Gary on Jun 15, 2018 16:46:15 GMT -5
Who expects anyone to become big before they actually do
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jun 15, 2018 16:49:58 GMT -5
Who expects anyone to become big before they actually do 1. His name is Juice WRLD 2. He's from SoundCloud 3. His name is Juice WRLD 4. His name is Juice WRLD The odds are against him |
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jun 15, 2018 16:50:51 GMT -5
Also, the artist behind LD was born December 1998. That's the most recent artist born to have topped the Hot 100. #peoplebornin1998unite just kidding, we all suck |
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Jun 15, 2018 16:51:37 GMT -5
I think Juice WRLD might have more success after Lucid Dreams.
The reason why I think this is because he already has another song charting on the Hot 100. Which suggests people are interested in him as an artist as well, and not solely interested in the song.
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Harx
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Post by Harx on Jun 15, 2018 16:53:05 GMT -5
I think Juice WRLD might have more success after Lucid Dreams. The reason why I think this is because he already has another song charting on the Hot 100. Which suggests people are interested in him as an artist as well, and not solely interested in the song. Lil Pump has another charting song as well. |
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Post by chartslovergermany on Jun 15, 2018 16:55:06 GMT -5
I think Juice WRLD might have more success after Lucid Dreams. The reason why I think this is because he already has another song charting on the Hot 100. Which suggests people are interested in him as an artist as well, and not solely interested in the song. nope I don't even know the artist and idrc,I want CardiB or Drake at the top |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 17:14:18 GMT -5
Agree that I Like It should've gotten #1 before Lucid Dreams. Not a bad song either but Juice DOES sound like Post Malone, that's true.
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Sherane Lamar
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Post by Sherane Lamar on Jun 15, 2018 17:21:45 GMT -5
There's a good chance "This Is America" won't even be Gambino's biggest hit.
"Redbone" did fantastically. 44 weeks, and a peak at #12. Year end of #25
Will "This Is America" even last 25 weeks? IDK.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2018 17:32:09 GMT -5
^Probably not. It's still doing alright on YouTube but freefalling everywhere else.
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kimberly
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Post by kimberly on Jun 15, 2018 17:47:35 GMT -5
^Probably not. It's still doing alright on YouTube but freefalling everywhere else. "This Is America" works great with the visuals and is very enjoyable, but I find it hard to listen to as part of my daily playlist and I believe most people feel the same way. "Redbone" is definitely a bigger hit. |
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Jun 15, 2018 17:48:11 GMT -5
I think Juice WRLD might have more success after Lucid Dreams. The reason why I think this is because he already has another song charting on the Hot 100. Which suggests people are interested in him as an artist as well, and not solely interested in the song. Lil Pump has another charting song as well. Lil Pump's situation is not the same. He's got 2 songs charting now, but they didn't randomly just start getting attention when Gucci Gang blew up. They were released afterwards and intentionally promoted. These artists had a song blow up, and then had either previous singles start charting by themselves (after originally flopping/getting no attention) or had album tracks start charting by themselves. This suggested an interest in the artist rather than just the particular song. Fetty Wap (My Way, 679, some other songs, I think RGF Island, Again and maybe one or two more) Lorde (Team, Tennis Court) Iggy Azalea (Work) Adele (Someone Like You, Set Fire To The Rain) fun. (Some Nights) Twenty One Pilots (Ride, I THINK, not 100% sure) Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (Can't Hold Us, Same Love) Kevin Gates (Really Really) Post Malone (Go Flex, White Iverson (it was already a hit before but got a resurgence after Congratulations blew up showing interest in Post Malone, not only in Congratulations) Bryson Tiller (Exchange, Sorry Not Sorry) and now we can add: Juice WRLD - All Girls Are the Same There will be others songs and artists that I have missed off as well. Post Malone and Fetty Wap were the most extreme examples by far, because they both had so many songs just start taking off by themselves. Although Fetty Wap's career faded quite quickly, so I'm not saying that Juice WRLD will be the new Drake, but I think he will get multiple hits like Lorde, Iggy Azalea, Bryson Tiller, fun., etc. People are clearly interested in him as an artist at the moment, and are not interested solely in the one song. Or maybe they're just intersted in the 2 songs lol. But basically I think he's got another hit song secured after Lucid Dreams already. This didn't happen to James Arthur, OMI, Silento, MAGIC!, Nico & Vinz, etc. So to me that suggests people loved the actual songs Cheerleader, Watch Me, Rude, etc. but didn't have so much interest in the artists themselves. Hope that makes sense, but that's my reasoning why I think Juice WRLD will likely become popular in his own right, rather than just the song being popular. And no, I see no evidence that he will become as popular as Cardi B, but I don't think he will disappear straight after this song either. |
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rainie
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Post by rainie on Jun 15, 2018 17:59:34 GMT -5
There's a good chance "This Is America" won't even be Gambino's biggest hit. "Redbone" did fantastically. 44 weeks, and a peak at #12. Year end of #25 Will "This Is America" even last 25 weeks? IDK. It may not get the year end peak of Redbone, but imo if an artist’s previous biggest song peaked at #12 and they have a song debut at #1 and stay there for multiple weeks, it’s pretty hard not to call that song their biggest hit. |
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on Jun 15, 2018 18:03:16 GMT -5
I think fewer people know Redbone, but those that did know it, and like it, listened to it a lot.
This Is America is probably more well-known, but a lot of people have only listened to it once or twice.
So I think there's an argument to be made both ways about which one is bigger.
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