Billboard Hot 100 : 8/25/18

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 15, 2018 9:56:38 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 15, 2018 7:08:31 GMT -5 amore said:

I see girls like you going #1 next.

Highly doubtful. Its airplay is about to start tanking. It has maxed out on Hot AC and Pop. Streaming and digital sales will start dropping as well. The only way it could potentially get to #1 is if In My Feelings starts dropping like "Look What You Made Me Do" or "This Is America," which isn't likely. If anything from the top ten is poised to be the next number one, it's "Fefe" (god help us) or "Sicko Mode," but I'd bet money on the next number one being something that hasn't blown up yet or just hasn't been released yet.

(Or, god forbid, "Respect.")

Still don't think Fefe has a chance. It's stopped gaining as much on Spotify and it's dipped on US YouTube streams. It's also doing terribly on radio (Nonstop has surpassed it on overall radio and Nonstop is gaining really slowly on radio itself) and it's sales performance has been abysmal since it's release. Girls Like You has peaked. So has I Like It. Sicko Mode will drop out of the top 10 in the next two weeks. In My Feelings has a sure 5 more weeks at #1 at least. After then, it's a toss up and a new, hot single can steal the #1 spot.

[ILLUSION]

Let's dissect:

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Flop. Underperformance. Call it whatever.

No, we won't. We'll use the correct term. It's an underperformance, not a flop.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Chun-Li only reached the top 10 because of cooked streams from Tidal and Fefe is a song she's featured on.

1. If you are trying to make a valid point, showing bitterness is not the way to go about it. Making unsubstantiated, and frankly false, allegations about TIDAL is not the way to prove your point.
2. No one was talking about FEFE, I was talking about Barbie Dreams, her 2nd solo single from this era to go Top 10 on the Hot 100 (providing this week's updates are correct)...which is, by the way, the highest number of her own singles from an album era to go Top 10 on the Hot 100, and both of them hold no features.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

All her songs have bombed on radio and on streaming platforms, except Fefe, which again, is a feature.

1. Chun-Li went Top 10 on both Urban and Rhythmic radio. She only had 1 other single this era, Bed, which tanked. Soooo that's not accurate and you can't judge an entire era off 1 doozy.
2. Again, no one was mentioning FEFE in the list of her accomplishments this era, although it is one. I mean, out of all the song's he's released, this is the highest peaking one, so you could argue a large part of that is because of her.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

This album will sell less than 200k in it's first week and will nosedive in it's second week. It will have no longevity whatsoever. Even beyond the numbers, just the messiness of the era alone.

This is where you start to get messy gurl. Her 3rd single is about to debut in the Top 10 of the Hot 100 and just received the most adds on Rhythmic radio this week/the 2nd most on Urban radio, so now you're just speculating what will happen off of 1 lousy performing single and lower debut numbers that are STILL six figures.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Maybe you call that a massive success, but that's a flop/massive underperformance/etc to me and everyone else.

1. No one ever said this era was a "massive successful"
2. There is a difference between flop and underperformance
3. You can't speak for everyone, only yourself :)

But stay mad.

[Au$tin]

Aug 15, 2018 10:13:40 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Aug 15, 2018 9:56:38 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Highly doubtful. Its airplay is about to start tanking. It has maxed out on Hot AC and Pop. Streaming and digital sales will start dropping as well. The only way it could potentially get to #1 is if In My Feelings starts dropping like "Look What You Made Me Do" or "This Is America," which isn't likely. If anything from the top ten is poised to be the next number one, it's "Fefe" (god help us) or "Sicko Mode," but I'd bet money on the next number one being something that hasn't blown up yet or just hasn't been released yet.

(Or, god forbid, "Respect.")

Still don't think Fefe has a chance. It's stopped gaining as much on Spotify and it's dipped on US YouTube streams. It's also doing terribly on radio (Nonstop has surpassed it on overall radio and Nonstop is gaining really slowly on radio itself) and it's sales performance has been abysmal since it's release. Girls Like You has peaked. So has I Like It. Sicko Mode will drop out of the top 10 in the next two weeks. In My Feelings has a sure 5 more weeks at #1 at least. After then, it's a toss up and a new, hot single can steal the #1 spot.

That's why I said neither are likely, but the best shots since both are holding up in streaming well enough that IMF could potentially fall beneath them before they die as well. But I really do think the next #1 isn't charting yet.

[renaboss]

Can't we just root for "Better Now"? If a video drops, doesn't it have a nice shot at #1?

I cannot be arsed with "Fefe" at #1, this year has been bad enough as it is.

[Gary]

On the "flop" vs "underperform" talk

Both terms are subject to opinion

Neither has explicit criteria

[ILLUSION]

Aug 15, 2018 10:22:10 GMT -5 Gary said:

On the "flop" vs "underperform" talk

Both terms are subject to opinion

Neither has explicit criteria

Six-digit debut figures is by no means a flop. Y'all are acting like TPP was some massively successful era. It was very successful, yes, but not a massively successful era that makes this era look like a flop in comparison. I think y'all are also forgetting that the beginning of TPP era was looking like a hot-ass mess until Anaconda dropped. BD dropped with this album and is not only holding it's own, it has received very good initial reception, as well as the album itself receiving very good reviews...so you can't call this era a flop right now. Everyone so eager to pounce on her and see her fail, damn. Go support your own faves and stop being so negative to everyone.

[Enigma.]

Also, I wouldn't call anything a flop based on couple of days, at least few weeks are needed.

[Au$tin]

Aug 15, 2018 10:22:10 GMT -5 Gary said:

On the "flop" vs "underperform" talk

Both terms are subject to opinion

Neither has explicit criteria

Within reason, though. You can't just call anything a flop or an underperformance willy-nilly the same way you can't just call anything a hit. Yes, there is subjectivity to it, but a song or album that performs a bit under expectations, but still good enough to be on most people's radar, should never be a flop by anyone's definition. Take "Unconditionally" by Katy Perry as an example. It was her weakest performing single since "Thinking of You," and performed below expectations, but it was still a top ten hit, went recurrent, went platinum, etc. That is, by no means, a flop. A flop is something that exceptionally performed below expectations, were gone as soon as they dropped, and are probably forgotten by most. Things like "Fall in Line" by Christina Aguilera.

The only scenarios where the terms could be used interchangeably are songs/albums that ride the line. They fall well below expectations, disappear quickly, but still managed to rack up a few notable chart stats. These are things like "Never Again" by Kelly Clarkson, Shakira's Shakira. album, Nicki's own "Pills N Potions."

So there is a fine line between the two, but there are obvious tracks and albums that fall in one category or the other.

[Gary]

Aug 15, 2018 10:25:26 GMT -5 ILLUSION said:

Aug 15, 2018 10:22:10 GMT -5 Gary said:

On the "flop" vs "underperform" talk

Both terms are subject to opinion

Neither has explicit criteria

Six-digit debut figures is by no means a flop. Y'all are acting like TPP was some massively successful era. It was very successful, yes, but not a massively successful era that makes this era look like a flop in comparison. I think y'all are also forgetting that the beginning of TPP era was looking like a hot-ass mess until Anaconda dropped. BD dropped with this album and is not only holding it's own, it has received very good initial reception, as well as the album itself receiving very good reviews...so you can't call this era a flop right now. Everyone so eager to pounce on her and see her fail, damn. Go support your own faves and stop being so negative to everyone.

OK- alot of opinion there

Anyway, "flop" as far as I know is a term used when something is EXPECTED to succeed and it does not

"Underperform" not really a "flop" but not really a success based on EXPECTATIONS.

Who defines those expectation is expressing a opinion.  Also The "grey area" when you cross over from "flop" to "underperform" to "success" also an opinion


100K figures may be a "flop" to someone expecting 500K but may be a great success to someone else expecting 10K
On this site, I would say not hitting the Year-end chart may even be considered to some as a flop

[ILLUSION]

Aug 15, 2018 10:39:05 GMT -5 Gary said:

OK- alot of opinion there

Uh, not really...everything I just said was based off factual basis. Chart performance of her earlier singles from TPP vs. Anaconda, her radio adds for BD and it's streaming positions, and album reviews posted from the bigger names of the reviewers in the music industry

[Gary]

Aug 15, 2018 10:42:29 GMT -5 ILLUSION said:

Aug 15, 2018 10:39:05 GMT -5 Gary said:

OK- alot of opinion there

Uh, not really...everything I just said was based off factual basis. Chart performance of her earlier singles from TPP vs. Anaconda, her radio adds for BD and it's streaming positions, and album reviews posted from the bigger names of the reviewers in the music industry

As you wish

Just sayin' an album review is also an opinion


Anyway - let's say "flop" and "underperform"  are not just terms made up on music discussion boards when discussing an artist and that there is an ACTUAL industry defined definition for each term that is based on chart performance, streaming and sale figures and so forth.  What is it?


For example, if you hit #40 on the Hot 100 but not #30 are you "underperforming"?  If you hit #41 instead of #40, is that a "flop"  (Just throwing out hypothetical numbers here) - just curious if there is a defined criteria based on sales, streaming, airplay and chart performance?? and not just opinion-based expectations (be it industry sources, fan sources or whatever)

 

[ILLUSION]

I don’t believe there is a defined term but a somewhat general consensus. If TPP had debuted with, say, more than 500k (I’m not gonna pick a specific number) and then opened with 150k, maybe you can call it a flop, although even then I think it could be debatable. If an album debuted with 600k albums or more the first week with their last album and then debuted with 150k, I’d say that’s a flop...but then again, as you said, everyone could have a different definition. 100k less in an opening week (250k vs 150k) shouldn’t be considered a flop. An underperformance, yes. Was PFRR deemed a flop when it opened with about 100k less than PF? No

[Bwol]

Google dictionary: Flop-

(of a performer or show) be completely unsuccessful; fail totally.

COMPLETELY UNSUCCESSFUL. Objective standard created.

Google dictionary: Underperform-

perform less well than expected.

These are two very different definitions!!!!! Was nicki completely unsuccessful? No. Why? Chun-Li and six digit sales. Let’s ignore EVERYTHING ELSE. Let’s ignore Barbie Dreams because y’all want to ignore it. And I’m ignoring FEFE too. Did Chun-Li fail totally? No. Therefore, the era is not a flop. Did Queen fail totally? Absolutely not. Therefore, it is not a flop.

[wavey.]

Also, let's stop comparing the sales and such from a 4th album to another artists debut era.

[ILLUSION]

Aug 15, 2018 11:03:54 GMT -5 wavey. said:

Also, let's stop comparing the sales and such from a 4th album to another artists debut era.

I’d word it as sales and such from someone 10 years into their career vs. someone’s first year of their career. It’s MUCH easier to have a “good year/good era” than “good 10 years”

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 15, 2018 10:27:56 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

Also, I wouldn't call anything a flop based on couple of days, at least few weeks are needed.

Which is why a song's success shouldn't be judged based on its peak or in the case of albums, first week numbers. Long term performance and longevity have been shown, time and again, to be better indicators.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 15, 2018 10:16:37 GMT -5 ILLUSION said:

Let's dissect:

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Flop. Underperformance. Call it whatever.

No, we won't. We'll use the correct term. It's an underperformance, not a flop.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Chun-Li only reached the top 10 because of cooked streams from Tidal and Fefe is a song she's featured on.

1. If you are trying to make a valid point, showing bitterness is not the way to go about it. Making unsubstantiated, and frankly false, allegations about TIDAL is not the way to prove your point.
2. No one was talking about FEFE, I was talking about Barbie Dreams, her 2nd solo single from this era to go Top 10 on the Hot 100 (providing this week's updates are correct)...which is, by the way, the highest number of her own singles from an album era to go Top 10 on the Hot 100, and both of them hold no features.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

All her songs have bombed on radio and on streaming platforms, except Fefe, which again, is a feature.

1. Chun-Li went Top 10 on both Urban and Rhythmic radio. She only had 1 other single this era, Bed, which tanked. Soooo that's not accurate and you can't judge an entire era off 1 doozy.
2. Again, no one was mentioning FEFE in the list of her accomplishments this era, although it is one. I mean, out of all the song's he's released, this is the highest peaking one, so you could argue a large part of that is because of her.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

This album will sell less than 200k in it's first week and will nosedive in it's second week. It will have no longevity whatsoever. Even beyond the numbers, just the messiness of the era alone.

This is where you start to get messy gurl. Her 3rd single is about to debut in the Top 10 of the Hot 100 and just received the most adds on Rhythmic radio this week/the 2nd most on Urban radio, so now you're just speculating what will happen off of 1 lousy performing single and lower debut numbers that are STILL six figures.

Aug 15, 2018 9:07:29 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Maybe you call that a massive success, but that's a flop/massive underperformance/etc to me and everyone else.

1. No one ever said this era was a "massive successful"
2. There is a difference between flop and underperformance
3. You can't speak for everyone, only yourself :)

But stay mad.

There's no reason for me to be mad or bitter. Honestly discussing the performance of songs and albums isn't bitterness. Nicki isn't my fave and it doesn't matter to me whether she fails or succeeds. I'm just pointing out how different this era is in comparison to her other eras. This era is her least successful era thus far. It's her messiest. It's a fact that her singles have performed terribly on radio and on the charts. You can make whatever distinctions you want to make. My entire point was that people expected this era to go way better than it's currently going and that's a fact.

[thegreatdivine]

Aug 15, 2018 10:17:09 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 15, 2018 10:13:40 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Still don't think Fefe has a chance. It's stopped gaining as much on Spotify and it's dipped on US YouTube streams. It's also doing terribly on radio (Nonstop has surpassed it on overall radio and Nonstop is gaining really slowly on radio itself) and it's sales performance has been abysmal since it's release. Girls Like You has peaked. So has I Like It. Sicko Mode will drop out of the top 10 in the next two weeks. In My Feelings has a sure 5 more weeks at #1 at least. After then, it's a toss up and a new, hot single can steal the #1 spot.

That's why I said neither are likely, but the best shots since both are holding up in streaming well enough that IMF could potentially fall beneath them before they die as well. But I really do think the next #1 isn't charting yet.

Oh, yeah. I was agreeing with you. I don't think the next #1 has been released yet either.

[ILLUSION]

Aug 15, 2018 11:39:00 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Aug 15, 2018 10:16:37 GMT -5 ILLUSION said:

Let's dissect:

No, we won't. We'll use the correct term. It's an underperformance, not a flop.

1. If you are trying to make a valid point, showing bitterness is not the way to go about it. Making unsubstantiated, and frankly false, allegations about TIDAL is not the way to prove your point.
2. No one was talking about FEFE, I was talking about Barbie Dreams, her 2nd solo single from this era to go Top 10 on the Hot 100 (providing this week's updates are correct)...which is, by the way, the highest number of her own singles from an album era to go Top 10 on the Hot 100, and both of them hold no features.

1. Chun-Li went Top 10 on both Urban and Rhythmic radio. She only had 1 other single this era, Bed, which tanked. Soooo that's not accurate and you can't judge an entire era off 1 doozy.
2. Again, no one was mentioning FEFE in the list of her accomplishments this era, although it is one. I mean, out of all the song's he's released, this is the highest peaking one, so you could argue a large part of that is because of her.

This is where you start to get messy gurl. Her 3rd single is about to debut in the Top 10 of the Hot 100 and just received the most adds on Rhythmic radio this week/the 2nd most on Urban radio, so now you're just speculating what will happen off of 1 lousy performing single and lower debut numbers that are STILL six figures.

1. No one ever said this era was a "massive successful"
2. There is a difference between flop and underperformance
3. You can't speak for everyone, only yourself :)

But stay mad.

There's no reason for me to be mad or bitter. Honestly discussing the performance of songs and albums isn't bitterness. Nicki isn't my fave and it doesn't matter to me whether she fails or succeeds. I'm just pointing out how different this era is in comparison to her other eras. This era is her least successful era thus far. It's her messiest. It's a fact that her singles have performed terribly on radio and on the charts. You can make whatever distinctions you want to make. My entire point was that people expected this era to go way better than it's currently going and that's a fact.

You clearly don’t know Nicki’s chart history or album era history to say that this is her worst performing era yet and that her songs are performing terribly on radio. The era just started. You can not like her, that’s fine, but you should check your facts before you speak

[jayhawk1117]

Lets see if she gets a sustainable solo hit this era first. Not just big during the buzz weeks. I feel like the GP isn't here for solo Nicki as much as they used to be and two (probably) one week low end top tens doesn't change that.

Also it is a bit Early to call it a flop but lets not pretend like critical acclaim means it can't flop. Queen could be the best album of all time and if it did 1k, its still a flop.

[thegreatdivine]

On this whole "flop" vs "underperformance" discussion, I generally meant that fans were expecting a much better era from Nicki than she's currently serving. Chun-Li and Barbie Tingz were very strong singles from her, despite their performance on the charts. Bed was also a nice single. I keep referencing Nicki feeling like this era is a "flop" because even her herself is overly concerned with numbers. She posts about her singles and albums reaching #1 on the iTunes charts. She posts about ANYTHING she considers an achievement (which is completely okay, artists have the right to brag about their achievements as much as they'd like). There is a case to be made for how well the songs off this album or the album itself will perform after this week, but aren't we the same ones who sit here and debate how an album will perform weeks in advance based on the numbers we see currently? Don't we make prediction threads every week? We've done it for every major release this year. How is doing it for Nicki meant to be taken as "hate?"

Also, beyond the words "flop" and "underperformance," everything is subjective. To some people, Drake's More Life flopped because it only really produced one hit record, which was "Fake Love," but still, the album is one of the few albums released last year that sold over 3M SPS worldwide. It did over 500k SPS first week and remained #1 for three weeks. It's eligible for 3x platinum and scored 3 top 10 hits with two of them reaching #1 on Rhythmic and Urban radio. Still to some people, based on the usual performance of Drake's albums or based on how Views performed, it "flopped." Loads of people on here noted how low Drake's pure sales were for Scorpion and we all spoke on it, despite knowing that that same album pulled almost 600k units from streams alone. Talking about something doesn't mean you're hating. We're here debating the songs we think have the chance of being the next #1, loads of people on here have spoken on how they don't like Fefe. People have commented on how they've grown tired of In My Feelings, doesn't mean they're hating. Everyone has a preference, thoughts and opinions and no one should be called a hater for expressing them.

[renaboss]

I have to say, out of all the quintessential weekly arguments we have, this one about flops or underperformances is the most boring. Can we go back to "Desburrito"?

[korbel16]

I read one thing and skipped the rest.. can we stop arguing about flop and underperforming now...

[Au$tin]

How about actually trying to change the subject and bring up something else to talk about rather than complaining about what everyone is discussing. Be the change you want.

[Choco]

Let's settle this:

Hit: (Record streams for a female act's album)


Underperformance: (Dropping nearly 30% from your last album even with streaming's growth in the last four years)


Flop: (#144 on the BB200)

[jayhawk1117]

Well she just discounted Queen to 5 dollars, with a poster and 3 month free trial of tidal. So I mean.....

[Choco]

^Which is not that different from basically giving your album away for free with the tour bundles. It's the only way Bon Jovi, P!nk and Metallica manage to outsell the competition so easily.

I think she can easily turn this era into a win with a couple hits. "Barbie Dreams" will probably be a top 10 hit this week but in the era of streaming, a single top 10 debut ain't much tbh. I think the label and her team need to work on her radio numbers and try to sustain a decent number of streams post week one (which will be hard because most of her songs have already started dropping a lot).

Basically, this can be her Rated R era, when people tried to bury Rihanna until "Rude Boy" resurrected the era, but they'll need to work their ass off (and they have done a terrible job so far).

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2018 10:19:03 GMT -5 renaboss said:

Can't we just root for "Better Now"? If a video drops, doesn't it have a nice shot at #1?

I cannot be arsed with "Fefe" at #1, this year has been bad enough as it is.

But we want a good song to go number one

[jayhawk1117]

Aug 15, 2018 14:32:15 GMT -5 Choco said:

^Which is not that different from basically giving your album away for free with the tour bundles. It's the only way Bon Jovi, P!nk and Metallica manage to outsell the competition so easily.

I think she can easily turn this era into a win with a couple hits. "Barbie Dreams" will probably be a top 10 hit this week but in the era of streaming, a single top 10 debut ain't much tbh. I think the label and her team need to work on her radio numbers and try to sustain a decent number of streams post week one (which will be hard because most of her songs have already started dropping a lot).

Basically, this can be her Rated R era, when people tried to bury Rihanna until "Rude Boy" resurrected the era, but they'll need to work their ass off (and they have done a terrible job so far).

I mean she's doing all the work. She's digging the hole

[Deleted]

Aug 15, 2018 14:32:15 GMT -5 Choco said:

^Which is not that different from basically giving your album away for free with the tour bundles. It's the only way Bon Jovi, P!nk and Metallica manage to outsell the competition so easily.

I think she can easily turn this era into a win with a couple hits. "Barbie Dreams" will probably be a top 10 hit this week but in the era of streaming, a single top 10 debut ain't much tbh. I think the label and her team need to work on her radio numbers and try to sustain a decent number of streams post week one (which will be hard because most of her songs have already started dropping a lot).

Basically, this can be her Rated R era, when people tried to bury Rihanna until "Rude Boy" resurrected the era, but they'll need to work their ass off (and they have done a terrible job so far).

Hopefully working their ass off means yanking her Twitter.

She'd be much better in the GP's good graces.

__
Hopefully "Barbie Dreams" will be her 3rd top 10 from Queen.