Billboard Hot 100: 02/23/2019

[owenlovesmusic]

So far TUN has been slightly less successful than J. Cole’s “KOD”. However the charts were very strong during J. Cole’s 3 song top 10 album bomb and the charts and fairly weak now so Ari may be able to beat what he got.

[kimberly]

Feb 9, 2019 10:50:37 GMT -5 dynamac said:

Are any Wiz/Curren$y songs doing well?

#155 "Benz Boys"
#163 "10 Piece"
#167 "Garage Talk"
#177 "The Life"
#200 "Find a Way"

So no.

[kimberly]

Feb 9, 2019 10:50:40 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

So far TUN has been slightly less successful than J. Cole’s “KOD”. However the charts were very strong during J. Cole’s 3 song top 10 album bomb and the charts and fairly weak now so Ari may be able to beat what he got.

Charts were weak when GLY was #1 for 7 weeks with the lowest numbers possible. Right now, "7 rings" is a strong #1. "without me" and "sunflower" are fierce competition. 
Let's also not forget how frontloaded J. Cole always is. His songs always freefall after Day 1.
No need to devalue Ariana's achievements by saying "Charts are weak" or crediting Scooter Braun for it. 

[feldspar905]

Feb 8, 2019 18:14:35 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Apple Music Update

thank u, next currently occupies #1 and #2 (+1) on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "needy" (+1)
#2 "NASA" (+1)
#4 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (+1)
#5 "bloodline" (-1)
#6 "ghostin"
#7 "fake smile"
#8 "bad idea" (+1)
#9 "imagine" (+3)
#10 "in my head" (+3)
#12 "make up" (+3)
#13 "7 rings" (-2)
#16 "7 rings" (+5)
#22 "thank u, next" (+6)
#34 "thank u, next" (-1)
#70 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (-3)
#119 "needy" [CLEAN] (+15)
#133 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (+30)
#153 "NASA" [CLEAN] (+24)
#175 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (new)
#182 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (new)
#184 "imagine" [CLEAN] (new)
#191 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (new)

Im so fucking grateful ari has become so ubiqutous,we need atleast 1 pop star

[velaxti]

Feb 9, 2019 11:02:23 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Feb 9, 2019 10:50:40 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

So far TUN has been slightly less successful than J. Cole’s “KOD”. However the charts were very strong during J. Cole’s 3 song top 10 album bomb and the charts and fairly weak now so Ari may be able to beat what he got.

Charts were weak when GLY was #1 for 7 weeks with the lowest numbers possible. Right now, "7 rings" is a strong #1. "without me" and "sunflower" are fierce competition. 
Let's also not forget how frontloaded J. Cole always is. His songs always freefall after Day 1.
No need to devalue Ariana's achievements by saying "Charts are weak" or crediting Scooter Braun for it. 

To determine if his claim that the charts are weak at the moment is true or false, you should get the estimated points that people like fhas or simminfierszig calculate for the #10, #5, #20, etc. and see if they are higher or lower than average (or compared to J. Cole's week). If they are lower, then what he said is true, if they are higher, then what he said isn't true. Although there's been formula changes between now and then, so you'd have to take those into account as well (or see if the people who calculate the points have already taken them into account so that they can be compared to older charts).

For example, on a weak week, the album tracks could debut at 5, 8, 9, 11, 14, and on a strong week the same points could get you at 7, 10, 12, 15, 17. You mentioned that the top 3 is strong, but that's not really the important bit of the chart if you're talking about album bombs, we're more interested in how strong the lower positions are, because that can make the difference in whether she gets 2 top 10s and 4 top 10s, or 5 top 20s and 7 top 20s.

I genuinely have no idea if the chart is weak or strong at the moment btw. Obviously the #1 is not weak at the moment, and the #2 and #3 aren't massively far behind, so must be decently strong as well, but on the other hand Girls Like You, Drip Too Hard, ZEZE, Sicko Mode, etc. are/were recently still in the top 10, so it can't be the strongest of all time or anything. So I really don't know. It's probably about average.

[campbellssoup]

Outside of Ariana, the new Khalid and Disclosure song "Talk" made a rather strong debut on the Spotify charts. I'm hoping it can eventually reach the top 10, although it obviously won't this week.

[kimberly]

Saturday Night - Apple Music Update after 48 hrs

thank u, next still occupies #1 and #2 on the albums chart.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (+1)
#2 "needy" (-1)
#3 "NASA" (=)
#4 "bloodline" (=)
#5 "ghostin" (=)
#6 "fake smile" (=)
#7 "bad idea" (=)
#9 "7 rings" (+2)
#10 "imagine" (=)
#11 "in my head" (-2)
#12 "make up" (=)
#14 "thank u, next" (=)
#22 "7 rings" (=)
#37 "thank u, next" (+4)
#65 "7 rings" [CLEAN/Single] (+13)
#77 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (-8)
#104 "needy" [CLEAN] (-23)
#125 "NASA" [CLEAN] (-21)
#149 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (-27)
#152 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (-29)
#156 "imagine" [CLEAN] (-30)
#159 "ghostin" [CLEAN] (-39)
#187 "bad idea" [CLEAN] (-36)
#196 "7 rings" [CLEAN] (-15)
# - -  "in my head" [CLEAN] (dropped out)
# - -  "make up" [CLEAN] (dropped out)

[ragingreality]

day 2 spotify numbers for thank u, next are in! the album still holds the top 11 on US charts (with “make up” dropping to #15). the gap between 7 rings and buwygf,ib is very close!

[livelightning]

Feb 9, 2019 11:02:23 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Feb 9, 2019 10:50:40 GMT -5 owenlovesmusic said:

So far TUN has been slightly less successful than J. Cole’s “KOD”. However the charts were very strong during J. Cole’s 3 song top 10 album bomb and the charts and fairly weak now so Ari may be able to beat what he got.

Charts were weak when GLY was #1 for 7 weeks with the lowest numbers possible. Right now, "7 rings" is a strong #1. "without me" and "sunflower" are fierce competition. 
Let's also not forget how frontloaded J. Cole always is. His songs always freefall after Day 1.
No need to devalue Ariana's achievements by saying "Charts are weak" or crediting Scooter Braun for it. 

But it's just a fact that the charts were stronger when KOD was released. He's not devaluing her.

[Deleted]

I’m hoping that Ariana doesn’t push Love Lies to recurrent because I would like to see it hit 52 weeks.

[Enigma.]

I can see 7 Rings being the #1 streaming song of 2019. It has a similar headstart that God's Plan had last year.

[Choco]

Feb 10, 2019 14:12:48 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

I can see 7 Rings being the #1 streaming song of 2019. It has a similar headstart that God's Plan had last year.

It's got a nice chance, timing really works in it's favor... but the numbers aren't Drake-level. If, as rumored, he's dropping something soon-ish it might give Ariana a run for her money.

[Enigma.]

Feb 10, 2019 14:22:10 GMT -5 Choco said:

It's got a nice chance, timing really works in it's favor... but the numbers aren't Drake-level. If, as rumored, he's dropping something soon-ish it might give Ariana a run for her money.

Yep, I don't think songs released later than April have a chance.

[insen_13]

Feb 8, 2019 19:55:20 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Feb 8, 2019 16:22:22 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

7 rings will probably stay at 1 while break up... will be 2? Idk top 3 seems likely tho

Say it's the Scorpion week all over again. 7 rings as "Nice For What" while break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored as "Nonstop".

Yeah, I could see the similarity

[Naos]

It's a shame Brandi Carlisle or Kacey Musgraves won't debut...

[Enigma.]

How do you know?

[kimberly]

Monday Morning - Apple Music Update after Grammys

thank u, next occupies #1 and #3 (-1) on the albums chart.
Kacey Musgraves is up to #17 with Golden Hour, the big winner of the night.
Mac Miller's Swimming is at #22, Cardi B's Invasion of Privacy is at #27.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (=)
#2 "needy" (=)
#3 "NASA" (=)
#4 "bloodline" (=)
#5 "ghostin" (=)
#6 "fake smile" (=)
#7 "7 rings" (+2)
#8 "bad idea" (-1)
#9 "in my head" (+2)
#11 "imagine" (-1)
#12 "make up" (=)
#14 "thank u, next" (=)
#22 "7 rings" (=)
#25 "Money" (Cardi B)
#39 "thank u, next" (-2)
#52 "Shallow" (Lady Gaga)
#54 "YOSEMITE" (Travis Scott)
#81 "7 rings" [CLEAN/Single] (-16)
#89 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (-12)
#131 "needy" [CLEAN] (-27)
#154 "NASA" [CLEAN] (-29)
#193 "fake smile" [CLEAN] (-41)
#194 "bloodline" [CLEAN] (-45)
# - -  "imagine" [CLEAN] (dropped out)
# - -  "ghostin" [CLEAN] (dropped out)
# - -  "bad idea" [CLEAN] (dropped out)
# - -  "7 rings" [CLEAN] (dropped out)

[chartfreak]

I'm streaming Brandi, Kacey, H.E.R, Dan & Shay, Janelle today. We need some shakeups on the Hot 100, not that I think it will make a huge difference, but I'm sure others are doing it also this week.

So is Rainbow not from the album that won Album of the Year??

[velaxti]

Feb 10, 2019 12:11:59 GMT -5 livelightning said:

Feb 9, 2019 11:02:23 GMT -5 kimberly said:

Charts were weak when GLY was #1 for 7 weeks with the lowest numbers possible. Right now, "7 rings" is a strong #1. "without me" and "sunflower" are fierce competition. 
Let's also not forget how frontloaded J. Cole always is. His songs always freefall after Day 1.
No need to devalue Ariana's achievements by saying "Charts are weak" or crediting Scooter Braun for it. 

But it's just a fact that the charts were stronger when KOD was released. He's not devaluing her.

I found this from fhas:

Feb 10, 2019 13:13:50 GMT -5 fhas said:

Highlights of the week:

- MIDDLE CHILD: strongest #4 since Girls Like You (40,200 points - August 11);
- Happier: strongest #8 since Emotionless (27,100 points - July 14);
- New peak in points: MIDDLE CHILD, Wow.;

So given that we've got the strongest #4 since August, and the strongest #8 since July, it probably is a fairly strong chart we've got at the moment. At least the top 10. I don't know how strong the charts were on KOD's release week though.

[rimetm]

Estimates for KOD - Before and After [credit: fhas]

April 28, 2018
49.9k - Nice for What
45.5k - God's Plan
37.2k - Meant to Be
31.6k - Psycho
28.4k - The Middle
27.0k - Look Alive
25.1k - Perfect
24.2k - Freaky Friday
21.6k - I Like It
20.9k - Chun-Li

May 5, 2018
45.3k - Nice for What
43.6k - God's Plan
40.7k - No Tears Left to Cry
36.0k - Meant to Be
31.1k - Psycho
30.0k - ATM
28.1k - The Middle
27.4k - Kevin's Heart
26.0k - Look Alive
24.6k - KOD

Estimates for TUN - Before [credit: fhas]

February 16, 2019 (Predictions)
45.3k - 7 Rings
37.6k - Without Me
37.3k - Sunflower
33.5k - Happier
31.6k - Sicko Mode
27.9k - High Hopes
27.0k - Thank U, Next
24.5k - Middle Child
24.4k - Girls Like You
24.3k - Wow.

It's hard to say really. The lower bound of the top 10 is considerably higher, and there's 5 songs above 30k compared to 4 in the before for Cole. However, there also aren't 2 songs above 40k and the 24k range seems like it might get washed away pretty easily by debuts. I'd say it's about equal, personally.

[Deleted]

I don't really care about Ariana Grande's new material but it's refreshing to see something other than hip hop dominating streaming.

[fhas]

Feb 11, 2019 13:06:10 GMT -5 rimetm said:

Estimates for KOD - Before and After [credit: fhas]

-

It's hard to say really. The lower bound of the top 10 is considerably higher, and there's 5 songs above 30k compared to 4 in the before for Cole. However, there also aren't 2 songs above 40k and the 24k range seems like it might get washed away pretty easily by debuts. I'd say it's about equal, personally.

It's hard to compare... The week before KOD was released wasn't that strong, but then - during the album week - NTLTC was released as the lead single for Ariana's album.

Now, it's the opposite. This week (Feb. 16) the three oldest songs in the top 10 received big boosts thanks to Fortnite/SB, but they are going to fall next week (I'm not sure if it's going to be a "hard" fall, though).

During the KOD week, the 10th biggest "non-Cole" song was Never Be The Same with 22,000 points. I'm expecting the 10th biggest "non-Ariana" song to be in that range (21-22k).

[fhas]

Feb 11, 2019 12:27:30 GMT -5 velaxti said:

Feb 10, 2019 12:11:59 GMT -5 livelightning said:

But it's just a fact that the charts were stronger when KOD was released. He's not devaluing her.

I found this from fhas:

Feb 10, 2019 13:13:50 GMT -5 fhas said:

Highlights of the week:

- MIDDLE CHILD: strongest #4 since Girls Like You (40,200 points - August 11);
- Happier: strongest #8 since Emotionless (27,100 points - July 14);
- New peak in points: MIDDLE CHILD, Wow.;

So given that we've got the strongest #4 since August, and the strongest #8 since July, it probably is a fairly strong chart we've got at the moment. At least the top 10. I don't know how strong the charts were on KOD's release week though.

Ugh... Billboard posted the official data for Happier (after more than three months) and I always adjust the data from the week before when they give us the info about this week's chart. After the adjustment, Happier lost 200 points and is now the second strongest #8 since July 14. On the January 5 chart, "Jingle Bell Rock" was slightly stronger than Happier this week. Still, very impressive for a song released in August/September and your point about the #8 being strong is still valid.

[Au$tin]

Feb 11, 2019 11:05:54 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

I'm streaming Brandi, Kacey, H.E.R, Dan & Shay, Janelle today. We need some shakeups on the Hot 100, not that I think it will make a huge difference, but I'm sure others are doing it also this week.

So is Rainbow not from the album that won Album of the Year??

Rainbow is indeed from Golden Hour. It's the final track.

[flextamcsignals]

I hope Ariana doesn’t block Rainbow from charting. It’s currently #5 on iTunes and the video already has over 200k views.

[kimberly]

Feb 11, 2019 11:05:54 GMT -5 chartfreak said:

I'm streaming Brandi, Kacey, H.E.R, Dan & Shay, Janelle today. We need some shakeups on the Hot 100, not that I think it will make a huge difference, but I'm sure others are doing it also this week.

So is Rainbow not from the album that won Album of the Year??

"Rainbow" is indeed off of Golden Hour and was performed last night. It's at #5 on iTunes, where some other tracks, like Grammy-winning "Butterflies" is at #27 and album opener "Slow Burn" is at #59. Golden Hour is the #1 album there.

On Apple Music, the album just broke into the Top 10 at #9, "Butterflies" is #157, and "Slow Burn" is #200. "Rainbow" is not charting as of yet.

[inverse]

So what's gonna have impacts this week? Ariana's album is gonna bomb the charts. Is GLY/Sicko Mode gonna still get a super bowl boost or is that just the 2/16 week?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Feb 11, 2019 17:46:18 GMT -5 inverse said:

So what's gonna have impacts this week? Ariana's album is gonna bomb the charts. Is GLY/Sicko Mode gonna still get a super bowl boost or is that just the 2/16 week?

The Super Bowl boost happened in the 02-16 chart week.

[kimberly]

Feb 11, 2019 18:03:45 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Feb 11, 2019 17:46:18 GMT -5 inverse said:

So what's gonna have impacts this week? Ariana's album is gonna bomb the charts. Is GLY/Sicko Mode gonna still get a super bowl boost or is that just the 2/16 week?

The Super Bowl boost happened in the 02-16 chart week.

“Boost” being an extra week in the top 10 for gly.

Not happening, sis.

[kimberly]

Monday Evening - Apple Music Update after Grammys

thank u, next holds on to #1 and #3 on the albums chart.
Kacey Musgraves is up to #8 (+9) with Golden Hour, the big winner of the night.
Mac Miller's Swimming is at #19 (+3), Cardi B's Invasion of Privacy is up to #18 (+9), H.E.R.'s self titled album enters the top 30 at #24.

Here's how the songs are doing:

#1 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" (=)
#2 "needy" (=)
#3 "NASA" (=)
#4 "bloodline" (=)
#5 "fake smile" (+1)
#6 "ghostin" (-1)
#7 "7 rings" (=)
#8 "bad idea" (=)
#10 "in my head" (-1)
#11 "imagine" (=)
#12 "make up" (=)
#14 "thank u, next" (=)
#22 "Talk" by Khalid
#23 "7 rings" (-1)
#25 "Money" by Cardi B (=)
#43 "thank u, next" (-4)
#51 "Shallow" by Lady Gaga (+1)
#85 "7 rings" [CLEAN/Single] (-4)
#91 "break up with your boyfriend, I'm bored" [CLEAN] (-2)
#143 "needy" [CLEAN] (-12)
#155 "Butterflies" by Kacey Musgraves 
#165 "NASA" [CLEAN] (-11)
#168 "Focus" by H.E.R.
#196 "Slow Burn" by Kacey Musgraves
# - - "fake smile" [CLEAN] (dropped out)
# - - "bloodline" [CLEAN] (dropped out)