How long do these artists have left?

[thewp]

I saw this thread topic in a pop thread and thought it was interesting.  I tried searching for a similar title/ thread, and didn't find it, so I apologize if this is redundant or creating a thread isn't ok.

How long do these artists have left? I'm not sure the criteria, I think that could be determined by the respondent, but maybe getting certifications/sales, hits on radio, top touring act, having buzz/ being part of the culture/ conversation?   

Blake Shelton
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Carrie Underwood
Miranda Lambert
Keith Urban
Kenny Chesney

anyone else?

It seems people are either about to be phased out, or they are new artists.  Who's in the middle of their career with a peak still to come?  Kacey maybe? 

[vamp111]

I feel like unless something miraculous happens, Miranda Lambert is already on her way out for having radio hits. Her last song to make top 10 was "Something Bad" in 2014 with Carrie.

[phil1996]

Blake Shelton - I’m not seeing any signs of Blake slowing down. As long as he’s on the Voice and continues to make radio friendly music, he’ll be around at least 4/5 more years.

Luke Bryan - I’d say we won’t see Luke slow down for another 5 years as well.

Eric Church - Church is gonna be around as long as he wants. He’s never gonna be a big radio guy but he’ll sell out arenas until he retires.

Miranda Lambert - same as Church.

Carrie Underwood - She’ll be around for a long time, considering she seems to take plenty of breaks.

Keith Urban - I think Keith has got 3-4 more years of hitmaking left.

Kenny Chesney - bigger than any of these above artists will probably ever be. He’ll sell shows out as long as he wants.

[Andy]

Among the older artists, I really hope Kenny Chesney doesn't go away anytime soon. I was pleasantly surprised by how much I enjoyed his most recent album.

[raylatch98]

In terms of radio success. I do think Kenny Chesney and possibly Keith Urban are reaching the end of the road moreso Kenny Chesney than Keith Urban.

I don't think Miranda Lambert will ever see the Top 10 again with one of her own singles. There has just been so many other female artists that have come in to replace Miranda Lambert on the radio.

I think Carrie Underwood is fine for a bit longer same with Luke Bryan. Even if this album era is underwhelming as can be for Carrie Underwood and Luke Bryan will probably never reach the artistic high that was the Crash My Party album era.

Eric Church will probably have a few more years with radio since he didn't really full on break out til 2011/2012 with "Drink In My Hand". I don't think Blake Shelton will ever reach his earlier highs as his songs are starting to fade when ir comes to radio ("She's Got A Way With Words", "Turnin Me On") but he should be good for a while longer.

[bboat11]

Now, it is worth keeping in mind that as hot as Carrie's career seems to be, she is about to turn 36 years old... At the rate she releases new music, she will probably only have one album era after her current one before she turns 40! Given the fact that country's ageist/sexist nature doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, it is very possible that we see her radio career start to decline in just a couple eras, so maybe in the next 5-6 years.

Also, now that she has been growing a family, it remains to be seen whether she will be more like Martina and continue to crank out top 10/20 singles for another decade after her career peak, or whether she pulls a Faith and just completely disappears to take care of her family around the time she hits 40...

Edit: Note that I am just talking about her commercial peak. I think it is very likely that Carrie will still have the ability to get radio play for another solid 15 years or so! Whereas somebody like Kenny Chesney it is very likely that his commercial peak was already about 15 years ago, and he is only about 2-3 years away from radio dropping him for good.

[someguy]

I think all of the above will be able to make music for as long as they want to (meaning that they've reached a level of success that guarantees some sort of record deal for as long as they want to record).

In terms of sustained guaranteed airplay, Miranda is past that now, and I think that Kenny and Keith are coming to the end of their free pass at radio. I can see Luke Bryan and Blake Shelton having hits for a long time to come. I can see Eric Church being hit or miss at radio (much like he is now), and I imagine that Carrie is coming near the end of her automatic airplay phase, but that she will still be able to put a single in the top 10/top 5 for awhile.