Billboard Hot 100: 08/24/2019

[kingvavis]

Let the tracking week and discussion begin!

[twelvevinylrecords]

Hot Girl Summer Top 5?

[moonlite]

Aug 9, 2019 12:47:11 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Hot Girl Summer Top 5?

Nah, it has no music vid and probably wont do well on Spotify

[whales10268]

I expect Small Talk will debut in the 60s and fall off the following week.

[xyz]

Boyfriend out of top 10. #21 on iTunes already

[Au$tin]

Aug 9, 2019 12:53:49 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Aug 9, 2019 12:47:11 GMT -5 twelvevinylrecords said:

Hot Girl Summer Top 5?

Nah, it has no music vid and probably wont do well on Spotify

I think it'll do fairly well on Spotify. I doubt enough to warrant top 5 on the Hot 100, but the hype from Nicki and Megan collaborating is real. I mean, it's #1 on iTunes right now with "Truth Hurts" down to 50%. Rap isn't really the type of genre to do that on iTunes and Spotify already favors rap more than iTunes. Of course, it will definitely perform better on Apple Music, where it's currently #2 behind "No Guidance." I wouldn't be shocked at all to see it top 20 on Spotify for the week. Again, not enough for a top 5 Hot 100 debut, but top 10 isn't out of the question as of yet. (Without seeing Spotify #s and Airplay #s, I'd probably guess a debut around 11-15 at the moment if all holds well.)

I'm also interested to see if it storms up Urban & Rhythmic or not.

[Deleted]

What song do you guys expect will finally dethrone Old Town Road? (If not this week then next week.)

[Au$tin]

Aug 9, 2019 17:52:01 GMT -5 @delphox said:

What song do you guys expect will finally dethrone Old Town Road? (If not this week then next week.)

Definitely banking on it being "Señorita" or "Truth Hurts." If neither of them do it, then "Ransom" is probably the track with next best chance. If none of those three, then I'd wager we still haven't heard the next #1 yet.

Taylor Swift might also be throwing herself into the ring if she indeed has a third single releasing on August 23rd alongside the album with a music video. I believe "ME!" and even "You Need to Calm Down" both had about as many points on their #2 weeks as "Old Town Road" is poised to have this upcoming week.

[Deleted]

I hope Lover's third single has a radio deal and official video available during album release week to increase the chances of scoring a #1 this era.

[jayhawk1117]

Well me debuted with 600 points and YNTCD debuted with just under 500 iirc so if single 3 has a MV she can certainly do it

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Let's sum up top 4 and Ransom

	Radio	iTunes	Spotify	YouTube	Apple
Old Town Road	#22 (-1,14)	#5	#10 (853k)	#1 (2,5M)	#29, #336
bad guy	#4 (+0,62)	#8	#6 (1,14M)	#9 (897k)	#19
Senorita	#7 (+1,60)	#6	#2 (1,22M)	#6 (1,17M)	#10
Truth Hurts	#6 (+1,67)	#2	#4 (1,19M)	#8 (936k)	#5
Ransom	/   (+0,51)	#73	#1 (1,7M)	#5 (1,3M)	#3

/ - not in the top 100
*Spotify: numbers as of 08/08
*YouTube: numbers as of 08/07

I think Ransom has no chance to replace OTR, but #1 in September is quite possible. Next #1 on Streaming for sure, after OTR.

My prediction:

Radio: #1 Senorita, #2 bad guy, #3 Truth Hurts,        #4 Old Town Road,                #5 Ransom
*based on the last 3 days
*S, BG and TH will be super close
*I have OTR around #33
Streaming: #1 Old Town Road,  #2 Ransom,         #3 Senorita, #4 Truth Hurts, #5 bad guy
Sales: #1 Truth Hurts, #2 Old Town Road,     #3 Senorita, #4 bad guy,              #5 Ransom

tough battle between Senorita, Truth Hurts and Old Town Road...it really could go either way.

#1 Senorita
#2 Truth Hurts
#3 Old Town Road (19 weeks at #1)
#4 bad guy
#5 Ransom
This is just my prediction, don't judge.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Regardless of which dethrones "Old Town Road", I say Lizzo or Shawn Mendes deserves their first number one. Although I would like for "Old Town Road" for its final week at #1 being at 08-24 chart and then finally be dethroned by 08-31 chart week (my birthday lol)

[livelightning]

How certain is week 20 for Old Town Road

[korbel16]

Aug 9, 2019 20:11:11 GMT -5 livelightning said:

How certain is week 20 for Old Town Road

i feel like it’ll get its 20th week..... but radio is going down A LOT. If it gets a 20th week then it’ll be pure luck because senorita is doing very well.

My guess after week 20 for OTR is

1) Senorita
2) OTR
3) Truth Hurts
4) Bad Guy

But this isn’t the predictions thread so let me stop right here haha

[kcdawg13]

I feel like Old Town Road is gonna fall 1-3 after it's 19th week, Senorita at #1 and Truth Hurts at #2.

[AR-J]

Aug 9, 2019 17:51:11 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Aug 9, 2019 12:53:49 GMT -5 moonlite said:

Nah, it has no music vid and probably wont do well on Spotify

I think it'll do fairly well on Spotify. I doubt enough to warrant top 5 on the Hot 100, but the hype from Nicki and Megan collaborating is real. I mean, it's #1 on iTunes right now with "Truth Hurts" down to 50%. Rap isn't really the type of genre to do that on iTunes and Spotify already favors rap more than iTunes. Of course, it will definitely perform better on Apple Music, where it's currently #2 behind "No Guidance." I wouldn't be shocked at all to see it top 20 on Spotify for the week. Again, not enough for a top 5 Hot 100 debut, but top 10 isn't out of the question as of yet. (Without seeing Spotify #s and Airplay #s, I'd probably guess a debut around 11-15 at the moment if all holds well.)

I'm also interested to see if it storms up Urban & Rhythmic or not.

Hot Girl Summer has now hit #1 on Apple Music.

[thegreatdivine]

The out-of-the-gate response to Hot Girl Summer has been great, but we all know a #1 on US iTunes means next to nothing these days in terms of chart impact. The song just hit #1 on Apple Music US, but sustaining that #1 for a couple of days will be the tricky part, seeing as No Guidance is still a monster on Apple Music US. We also have to see it's Spotify US numbers for the first few days (a platform both Megan and Nicki haven't exactly performed well at in recent times) and lastly, we have to see if it can manage to score some radio airplay within this tracking week.

All of that will be instrumental in whether or not it debuts in the top 10 or even top 20.

[AR-J]

Aug 10, 2019 0:40:49 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

The out-of-the-gate response to Hot Girl Summer has been great, but we all know a #1 on US iTunes means next to nothing these days in terms of chart impact. The song just hit #1 on Apple Music US, but sustaining that #1 for a couple of days will be the tricky part, seeing as No Guidance is still a monster on Apple Music US. We also have to see it's Spotify US numbers for the first few days (a platform both Megan and Nicki haven't exactly performed well at in recent times) and lastly, we have to see if it can manage to score some radio airplay within this tracking week.

All of that will be instrumental in whether or not it debuts in the top 10 or even top 20.

All true.

I will say, it was played all day on Power 105--I am in New York City. I'm sure it happened in other cities as well.

[Deleted]

I sa y hot girl summer where debut around where press did

[Enigma.]

Small Talk and Hot Girl Summer had pretty much the same amount of listens according to Spotify count (2.2m), I think HGS has much more in the US though.

[Envoirment]

I'm hoping both "Truth Hurts" and "Senorita" could get a week or two at #1. Both are super close, but Lizzo is catching up on both spotify and youtube, so it won't be long until she is ahead there.

[fhas]

Aug 9, 2019 18:24:42 GMT -5 jayhawk1117 said:

Well me debuted with 600 points and YNTCD debuted with just under 500 iirc so if single 3 has a MV she can certainly do it

YNTCD never got close to 500, it was close to 380.

[spicymapping]

Anyone know what's with the delay on Spotify data today?

[Crimsonio]

Aug 10, 2019 16:08:39 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Anyone know what's with the delay on Spotify data today?

I'm guessing because today is National Lazy Day

[kimberly]

Spotify:
#1 Ransom 1.833
#2 Hot Girl Summer 1.290
#3 Senorita 1.286
#4 Truth Hurts 1.277
#5 boyfriend 1.251

Apple:
#1 Hot Girl Summer
#2 No Guidence
#3 Ransom
#4 Money in the Grave
#5 Truth Hurts

[cassiuscasanova]

Wow hot girl summer is actually doing really well

[Au$tin]

Wow, great Spotify numbers for Hot Girl Summer! I expected 6-10.

[Enigma.]

YESS amazing for Meghan/Nicki/Ty! I kinda hoped that Cash Shit would've been her breakthrough song because it's my #1 jam but very happy with this too.

[spicymapping]

I have no life so here's what the radio numbers will look like for all songs in the top 100 excl. recurrents by the end of the week. Gainers bolded.

SPOILER: Click to show

{Spoiler}1. Talk (=) 162.72
2. I Don't Care (=) 146.28
3. Senorita (+4) 128.63
4. Bad Guy (-1) 127.77
5. Truth Hurts (+1) 125.35
6. If I Can't Have You (-1) 120.82
7. Sucker (-3) 110.44
8. Hey Look Ma, I Made It (=) 85.13
9. Dancing With a Stranger (=) 76.66
10. No Guidance (=) 69.52
11. Goodbyes (+3) 67.84
12. Someone You Loved (+3) 66.84
13. Beer Never Broke My Heart (-1) 65.23
14. Speechless (-3) 65.16
15. You Need To Calm Down (-2) 64.99
16. The Ones Who Didn't Make It Back Home (+1) 59.52
17. All To Myself (+1) 57.97
18. Money In The Grave (+6) 57.17
19. Suge (-3) 56.34
20. Rearview Town (-1) 55.79
21. Beautiful People (+11) 52.76
22. Raised On Country (+3) 51
23. Boyfriend (+41) 50.83
25. Without Me (-3) 48.45
26. Knockin Boots (=) 48.39
28. Wow. (-7) 45.56
29. Old Town Road (-6) 42.62
31. Sunflower (+4) 41.02
32. God's Country (-1) 40.62
33. The London (+4) 40.44
34. Sweet But Psycho (-4) 39.19
35. Some Of It (-2) 39.19
36. Happier (=) 38.84
37. Trampoline (+2) 37.98
38. Only Human (+6) 37.56
39. Southbound (+2) 36.5
40. Whiskey Glasses (-2) 36.21
41. Just Us (-7) 36.15
43. Living (-1) 35.21
44. Easier (-1) 34.75
45. Talk You Out of It (=) 34.64
46. What Happens In a Small Town (+6) 33.36
47. Pop Out (+9) 33.36
48. My Type (=) 32.9
49. Buy My Own Drinks (-2) 32.64
50. How Do You Sleep? (+19) 32.35
51. I Don't Know About You (+3) 32.32
53. We Were (+2) 30.71
55. Love You Too Late (-4) 30.05
57. Worth It (-4) 28.43
58. Better (+5) 28.15
60. Clout (+13) 27.93
62. Press (+12) 26.97
63. Never Really Over (-36) 26.45
64. Shallow (+3) 26.23
65. Good Vibes (+12) 26.15
66. Prayed For You (+13) 25.37
68. Love Ain't (-2) 24.98
69. 7 Rings (-7) 24.92
71. Cash Shite (+12) 24.41
72. Tip Of My Tongue (+4) 24.36
76. Go Loko (+2) 22.8
82. Si Me Das Tu Amor (NEW) 21.37
83. Panini (NEW) 21.36
84. What If I Never Get Over You (=) 21.27
85. The Git Up (+3) 21.16
86. 24/7 (-27) 21.1
87. Every Little Thing (+4) 20.87
88. Before I Let Go (-6) 20.56
90. Back To Life (-4) 19.91
92. Call You Mine (+4) 19.24
94. Ran$om (NEW) 19.19
95. Thought About You (+2) 19.02
96. Daydrunk (NEW) 18.6
97. Going Bad (-32) 18.28
99. It All Comes Out the Wash (NEW) 17.47
100. Love Me Less (NEW) 17.43

[AR-J]

Aug 10, 2019 21:38:20 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Wow, great Spotify numbers for Hot Girl Summer! I expected 6-10.

#46 on Urban Radio, 6.59 Aud.

If they fast track the video, they can keep momentum. It was shot on Friday.