Billboard Hot 100: 09/21/19

[iggyamo]

Sept 5, 2019 10:20:48 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Lil Nas X has dropped the video for Panini.

Honestly, this is probably my favourite music video of the year, I really hope this takes off

[Gary]

We said the same thing about Old Town Road once upon a time

Depends on the streaming power of Lil Nas X carrying over to song #2

Song #1 - set streaming records - if this gets even half of that - who knows

[rockgolf]

Sept 5, 2019 9:44:04 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

Ozzy isn't a one-hit wonder on the Hot 100 anyway. His uncharted rock classics aside, "Close My Eyes Forever" reached #8 in 1989 and "Mama, I'm Coming Home" climbed to #28 in 1992. I just don't get the obsession with Year-End charts around here.

Ozzy had bigger success on the UK charts where a duet with his daughter Kelly on a remake of Changes went to #1 in 2003, and a bizarre team up with the one-man band called Was (Not Was) (!) and model Kim Basinger (!!!) went to #4 in 1992 with the track Shake Your Head.

[earth]

Sept 4, 2019 9:39:20 GMT -5 iggyamo said:

With the track list and features on each track out for Hollywood’s Bleeding. Which one do y’all think will debut the highest? How many on your way too early predictions will hit the top 10? Will Take What You Want be the next single, hit the 2020 year end list and make another one hit wonder lose that title? (Ozzy Osbourne technically only has one song that hit a year end list, including his work in Black Sabbath)

Purely based on the feautres, Tracks 7, 8 & 9 seem to all have some pretty powerful features, I can't really tell which is the strongest though. 8 will probably be a pretty basic trap flexing song, 7 will be a more sad (or at least try to be sad) love song, and 9 will be a more upbeat love song. (I'd guess that off of the title, but the fact that Ozzy Osbourne and Travis Scott are on it doesn't really support that theory) Hollywood's Bleeding will also have a big impact probably, since it's also the first track as well as the Title Track.

[earth]

Panini is #1 on U.S Trending and the Music Video has over 1 mil views in 5 hours. Hopefully the views start increasing faster. These Camila singles also seem to be doing well, Shameless definitely seems to be the one being pushed more, with the music video.

[Naos]

Sept 5, 2019 9:44:04 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

I just don't get the obsession with Year-End charts around here.

Probably because they tend to indicate what is more popular rather than something that's only big for a week or two and drops like a rock.

[renfield75]

Sept 5, 2019 15:31:11 GMT -5 Naos said:

Sept 5, 2019 9:44:04 GMT -5 renfield75 said:

I just don't get the obsession with Year-End charts around here.

Probably because they tend to indicate what is more popular rather than something that's only big for a week or two and drops like a rock.

But they also favor songs that peak early in the year. It doesn't measure an entire chart run, so it's not a complete picture either. To say a song wasn't a hit because it wasn't one of the Top 100 songs of the year (as the OP did) is not fair.

[85la]

To comment on the year-end charts, of course it's not a perfect indicator, but if we're judging how big of a hit a song is, which by definition is how well it performed compared to other songs at the time, the year-ends overall give a much more complete picture than weekly peaks. For most songs they do actually include most of their entire runs, or if it's split between years you just have to consider where it ranks for both years and that gives you a good idea of roughly where it would rank if it were combined into one year. There are cases where a song's run is split between years but only big enough to chart for one year, so this would be a shortcoming, however this doesn't happen to most songs and since it was only big enough to chart for one year, it probably wouldn't rank much higher if its full run was to be included. However, if experienced chart watchers and fanatics really want to know, they could look up the portion of the runs that missed the year-end cutoff and guestimate how much higher the song would rank if that portion was included, which is what I frequently do.

[rfucom]

Better Panini release the vid next week. It will not gonna do any big this week coz its Posty week.

[renfield75]

Sept 5, 2019 16:40:15 GMT -5 85la said:

However, if experienced chart watchers and fanatics really want to know, they could look up the portion of the runs that missed the year-end cutoff and guestimate how much higher the song would rank if that portion was included, which is what I frequently do.

Experienced chart watchers can also see that a song that plunged 2-22-off the chart wasn't as big as a #14 song that spent 35 weeks on the chart, except for that one week. Again, to say an artist is a one-hit wonder (which is where this entire discussion came from) because they only had one year-end Top 100 song is not accurate. A song not being one of the 100 biggest hits of the year doesn't mean that song wasn't a hit, especially in the late 80s/very early 90s when a song could go top ten, have a 10-15 week chart run (average for the time), and not make the year end. It was still a hit. The Year End is just one more way of quantifying success, it is not the only barometer.

[rfucom]

Cant wait for Posty album. 3hrs more

[mzumii]

Future previewed a snippet of him on Die for Me and Lil Baby shared a snippet of him on On The Road

[erzo01]

Rock on the Net does its yearly charts such that a song's entire chart run is all accounted for in just a single year - the year when the song peaked.

(Before I discovered Mediabase, this and Rick Dees were my go-to pop chart haha.)

[Gary]

I agree with the year end chart comments - way too much emphasis placed on it here.

All it is is a 12 month snapshot that doesn't even cover the actual year (mid November to mid November)


Hit songs bordering the cutoff points are no less of a hit because they straddle two time periods than a hit that happens to fall within the November to November period. And I agree with the comment that it is possible to be a "hit" and not place on the year end chart.

[nathanalbright]

Sept 5, 2019 10:55:43 GMT -5 @benson said:

Sept 5, 2019 9:25:32 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Billboard has definitely never been all-encompassing when it comes to genres. There have always been and will always be flaws in their methodologies and the way they do things. (Un)fortunately, their song/album charts are the industry standard so they won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

To play devil's advocate, though, they seem to be trying to make their charts as reflective of all metrics as possible and they're better with genre representation now than in the past. Hopefully, they continue to get better.

This is true, and indirectly what prompted me to post. The generational disconnect. Things now are a lot different than ever before, certainly in terms of hard data and "realism" on the charts.  So it's important to keep in mind different contexts during different eras, instead of using the Hot 100 as one ultimate historical chart and level playing field to compare things, as some people do, even though it's the best we have, and does indeed continue to evolve.  A rock song in the 70s and 80s peaking poorly -- or not at all-- is a similar boat as the 90s songs that never charted on the Hot 100 at all.  It's all conditional and misleading without proper context.  Different reasons, but reasons nonetheless.

Tangent, but this kinda ties in with recurrent rules and the like, and those that don't like that they exist.  We've become so precise and number-centric in recent years, and are inundated with data, that the point of the Hot 100 existing tends to get lost on some.  It was never this super scientific gauge, but more of a tool for the industry to flourish and constantly move forward with new acts and trends, etc. It was about bragging rights, but also controlling the narrative, not really about exactly how many people consumed something.  However high they could push a song's ranking (authentically or not) would then be used to fuel the next single or album's success. And to break new artists, of course, which is a big deal. Vital, even. The 90s brought on more accuracy with BDS and SoundScan, and then labels found ways to manipulate that to their advantage.  And on and on. Times change and everyone adapts accordingly.  

Not to sound dramatic, but without recurrency rules, the industry may not even exist, at least not like it has. It's been pretty crucial from an industry/business perspective.  A static Hot 100 is problematic for the industry, regardless of how accurate it actually may be.  The relatively recent addition to recurrent rules (the 52/25 rule) leads me to believe this is the reality the industry continues to face.  Giving up all control of the charts to the consumer probably wouldn't end well. For any entertainment industry to thrive, It's about what's happening right now and what's next, not what already happened and still lingers for a year or two.  When there are only a certain amount of chart slots, some songs need to be put to rest to make room for the next one$ or the industry hits a wall and goes nowhere in a hurry. Plus, these days there are several charts that track a song's life outside of and/or after a Hot 100 run. The Hot 100 may be more "real" than it's ever been, but it's still impossible to track and capture this stuff with 100% inclusivity and accuracy. There are just too many variables.  But that's kinda my point, it doesn't have to to be scientific and all-encompassing to be effective and do its job. It's good enough, and we all clearly love it for what it is, flaws and all.  I know I do!

I know I'm one of those people that tends to be irritated about recurrent rules and the like.  When it comes to data, I think it is important that we have some idea of sales/radio/streams/etc. on an ongoing and comprehensive basis.  Quite often rules about recurrency tend to affect the way that songs of the year/decade/all time are viewed, and I think it is important that our understanding of the most popular and most enduring songs does reflect the long haul and not merely a chart run which was hedged in by various limitations.  To be sure, the UK regulations against album bombs that only allow chart positions to the top 3 songs of an artist are even more restrictive and even more distorting of the actual popularity of music at a given time.  Some songs may stick around for a very long time and be played on the radio forever, especially in those genres where turnover is slow, like in adult contemporary or adult alternative, for example.  As someone who likes having accurate and comprehensive data when it comes to music, to better understand which songs and artists endured and which were just passing fads, it is important to note if a song spent dozens of weeks receiving points from radio, streaming, or sales that it would have been on the Hot 100 if it had been allowed there, and to make sure that this is taken into account when seeking to place songs within the context of their time and for all time.  To be sure, there is a certain conservative bias here when it comes to recognizing that which has endured, but temperamentally speaking I do not find this conservative bias to be a bad thing, not least when a lack of historical understanding or memory tends to lead people to assume that every new hit has "ended" some longtime successful artist.  It is certainly worthwhile for there to be charts that reflect new songs that have been put out, but if the populace prefers to listen to older songs over and over again and is rejecting new offerings, this is worthwhile for the industry to understand as well.  Of course, there are often wide disconnects between what is playing on the radio and what people would want to listen to on their own, and even in streaming there are plenty of cases where the industry tries to push songs that may not have genuine organic popularity.  Whatever system exists, it is likely that labels and would-be music curators will try to game it to increase their own clout, though, and that is just part of how things go.

[spicymapping]

Thought this would be fun - prediction so absurdly early that multiple songs that'll chart are unknown. Using my predictions for 9/14 for comparison

1. Goodbyes (+8)
2. Señorita (-1)
3. Truth Hurts (-1)
4. Circles (+1)
5. Ran$om (-2)
6. Bad Guy (-2)
7. Sunflower (+9)
8. Old Town Road (-2)
9. No Guidance (-2)
10. Take What You Want (NEW)
11. Wow. (+24)
12. Someone You Loved (-1)
13. I Don’t Care (-3)
14. Talk (-6)
15. Money In The Grave (-3)
16. Shameless (NEW)
17. Beautiful People (-3)
18. Sucker (-3)
19. Hollywood’s Bleeding (NEW)
20. Enemies (NEW)
21. Suge (-2)
22. If I Can’t Have You (-5)
23. Boyfriend (-3)
24. You Need To Calm Down (-11)
25. My Type (-4)
26. The Git Up (-4)
27. Panini (+3)
28. Die For Me (NEW)
29. On The Road (NEW)
30. Hot Girl Summer (-12)
31. Baby (-8)
32. How Do You Sleep? (-4)
33. The London (-8)
34. Knockin’ Boots (-5)
35. Saint Tropez (NEW)
36. A Thousand Bad Times (NEW)
37. Lover (-13)
38. Dancing With a Stranger (-12)
39. Staring At The Sun (NEW)
40. Allergic (NEW)
41. Trampoline (-9)
42. Beer Never Broke My Heart (-15)
43. Only Human (-7)
44. Pop Out (-13)
45. Liar (NEW)
46. Cash Shit (-9)
47. All The Good Girls Go To Hell (+43)
48. Speechless (-15)
49. On Chill (-9)
50. Without Me (-16)
51. Internet (NEW)
52. I’m Gonna Be (NEW)
53. One Thing Right (-8)
54. Time (=)
55. Living (=)
56. I Don’t Know About You (-2)
57. Motivation (-7)
58. I Know (NEW)
59. Myself (NEW)
60. Good As Hell (-8)
61. China (-14)
62. The Ones Who Didn’t Make It Back Home (-16)
63. Prayed For You (-5)
64. All To Myself (-16)
65. Hot (-16)
66. Otro Trago (-15)
67. Easier (-11)
68. Ballin’ (-5)
69. Southbound (-7)
70. F.N (-10)
71. Love You Too Late (-6)
72. Hate Me (-2)
73. It’s You (-5)
74. Queen Of Mean (-13)
75. Callaita (-11)
76. Rearview Town (-17)
77. Did It Again (-20)
78. Tip of My Tongue (-2)
79. One Man Band (-1)
80. Lalala (-13)
81. Good Vibes (+1)
82. Baby Sitter (+4)
83. Call You Mine (-10)
84. Bad Bad Bad (-15)
85. No Me Conoce (-8)
86. Baguettes In The Face (-6)
87. What If I Never Get Over You (+4)
88. It All Comes Out In The Wash (-5)
89. Every Little Thing (+4)
90. Buy My Own Drinks (+4)
91. Good Things Fall Apart (+4)
92. The Bones (NEW)
93. Wish Wish (-1)
94. Right Back (-9)
95. Slide Away (-23)
96. Press (-15)
97. 223’s (NEW)
98. Uno (-2)
99. The Archer (-25)
100.The Man (-34)

[korbel16]

This might be the week any song that is 20+ weeks that are currently #35-#50 on the hot 100 go recurrent (besides “Wow”. obviously)... if Post’s Album bomb is really strong... look out for 7 rings, Whiskey Glasses, God’s Country, and hell maybe even Hey Look Ma I made It...

[kcdawg13]

I feel like Circles is gonna be #1 not Goodbyes, I actually think Sunflower will be higher than Goodbyes as well. I expect the whole Top 3 to be Post Malone.

[Mauricio]

"Die for me" sounds like a hit and it's the 7th track on the album. I hope it debuts top 20

[tanooki]

I hope Take What You Want becomes a huge hit

[Enigma.]

Saint Tropez is on top of the local New Music Friday playlist here in my country so I guess that's the 4/5th single?

[nick64]

Sept 5, 2019 7:45:49 GMT -5 violentdreams said:

Sept 4, 2019 10:13:24 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Gotta hear the songs first, no? Can't judge an album based on track titles/features. I thought ''Celebrate'' with Travis Scott and Post Malone that appeared on DJ Khaled's album would be a decent hit, but that song didn't do anything.

It was predictable. Post and Travis both don't have much of a feature stimulus despite being huge on their own, so them collabing on a song and flopping wasn't really a surprise.

I’d say Travis has done pretty well for himself with features, arguably more so than as a lead. “Zeze”, “The London”, “Love Galore”, “Sky Walker”, “4 AM”, “Portland”, just to name a few off the top of my head.

[kanfad]

Staring At The Sun deserves to be just as big or bigger than Sunflower. louis bell is really a genius

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 6, 2019 4:45:30 GMT -5 kanfad said:

Staring At The Sun deserves to be just as big or bigger than Sunflower. louis bell is really a genius

It shares too many similarities with Sunflower.

[thegreatdivine]

In non-Post Malone related news, Alessia Cara dropped a new EP, which is really good. Also, a trio Pop band called MUNA dropped their sophomore album (they're REALLY GOOD). EARTHGANG, a hip-hop duo, also dropped their major label debut album. It's a pretty good project. They're signed to J. Cole's label. All in all, a good week for new music.

[rfucom]

Sept 6, 2019 4:59:22 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

In non-Post Malone related news, Alessia Cara dropped a new EP, which is really good. Also, a trio Pop band called MUNA dropped their sophomore album (they're REALLY GOOD). EARTHGANG, a hip-hop duo, also dropped their major label debut album. It's a pretty good project. They're signed to J. Cole's label. All in all, a good week for new music.

Why drop an EP at the same time with Posty same with Camilla single. I think its better to save it for next week.

[rfucom]

Spicymapping, im here for Goodbyes be no.1 first because it will benefit with radio AI more than Circles. I hope circles will ne next after Goodbyes.

[Deleted]

Sept 5, 2019 10:37:48 GMT -5 Gary said:

"He's cheating"

(Before this song starts to compete for #1 - just getting it in now to beat the rush - LOL)

How old are you

[Deleted]

in a perfect world Wow would leap to the peak it should of gotten half a year ago

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 6, 2019 5:26:58 GMT -5 rfucom said:

Sept 6, 2019 4:59:22 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

In non-Post Malone related news, Alessia Cara dropped a new EP, which is really good. Also, a trio Pop band called MUNA dropped their sophomore album (they're REALLY GOOD). EARTHGANG, a hip-hop duo, also dropped their major label debut album. It's a pretty good project. They're signed to J. Cole's label. All in all, a good week for new music.

Why drop an EP at the same time with Posty same with Camilla single. I think its better to save it for next week.

Her debut album moved less than 30K units in it's first week. I doubt she dropped to compete with Post Malone or Camilla.