Billboard Hot 100: 10/5/19

[kierz7]

@jebsib

•Important to remember that during this period the Hot 100 was primarily an airplay chart. People had given up on 45rpm records singles, there were almost no CD singles, and cassingles were just beginning their foothold (virtually non existent before Bryan Adams' Heat of the Night). So sales totals did not stabilize or influence the chart that much … and airplay was regulated by unstable radio playlist reports usually phoned in by young interns. Once a song peaked at a station, it would be removed on that stations' playlist immediately.•

Thank you for this information.

[Az Paynter]

The clash in key signatures on that Britney/Billie mashup is hurting me. There could be something in there with the verses of BG on the Toxic instrumental if it were just the lead vocal, because the stacked harmonies are in a completely different key and the combination clashes.

'Toxic' is in C minor. 'Bad Guy' is in G minor. Musical theory would tell you that those two songs do not work together without transposing one (or both) into a matching key.

[kierz7]

Sept 29, 2019 12:41:44 GMT -5 brady47 said:

This might be off topic: But I just heard this amazing mashup of "bad guy" and Britney Spears' "Toxic"

sowndhaus.audio/track/13284/bad-toxic

This is SICK!

A double-digit week, number one SMASH if such was ever released in 2019.

[renfield75]

Sept 29, 2019 8:39:51 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Sept 29, 2019 6:31:30 GMT -5 badrobot said:

This has been talked about before (re: so few high debuts). Many here can’t comprehend a pre-internet world where people simply did not know about a song until they heard it on the radio. Information traveled slower. If you were a big fan of someone you probably had to join a by-mail fan club if you wanted anything resembling the wealth of info about each artist’s music that you get instantly online today.

As recently as the mid-90s, even once email and the web was becoming common, we still often had to wait 1-2 weeks to get chart data that today y’all complain about being late if it’s 15 minutes past normal.

And, if you wanted to buy a song, you had to go to a store and spend $3-4, which is probably close to $10 today with inflation. Nothing was instant.

Thank you for your response.

Now, I didn’t start following the Billboard charts until I was 11, in 2000 (I was HUGE fans of Destiny’s Child/Christina Aguilera at the time) so I’m not well educated on the charts throughout the early-to-mid ‘90’s/Pre-Soundscan. Of course, I understand that the charts moved much slower then, methodologies were rather inaccurate etc.

Nevertheless, I just find it extremely interesting that artists ala. Michael Jackson, Whitney Houston, Janet Jackson etc. weren’t able to score (•at the very least•) top ten or twenty debuts on the Hot 100 during their peak ‘80’s eras when you had The Beatles scoring top ten debuts in the 1960’s and the early 1970’s as pointed out by another poster.

Surely you’d think that Michael Jackson, of all artists at the time, would have scored high debuts on the Hot 100 during the “BAD” era. It still amazes me that “I Just Can’t Stop Lovin’ You” took 7 weeks to hit number one, “BAD” took six weeks etc.

It’s fascinating! Especially when you had albums debuting at number one, in the top ten, but not physical singles.

Another factor that kept records from debuting super high back then was that songs were allowed to chart the week they were released. Since sales figures for the first full week obviously wouldn't be available until the week AFTER release, songs charted essentially off of airplay that first week (a factor that wouldn't have impacted albums). That's why you see a lot of highly anticipated songs debut in the lower 30s then shoot up 15 or so places the next week (as we know, the sales/airplay/streaming tracking weeks STILL aren't in sync with each other). Billboard changed this policy in '95 so that songs couldn't debut until they had a full week of sales. Shortly after that MJ's "Scream" broke records by debuting at #5, then Biggie matched it the very next week with "One More Chance". A few weeks after that "You Are Not Alone" became the first song to enter at #1. Also at that point labels were withholding airplay hits from commercial release (something singles had to have to chart before December 1998). Songs that were released physically were usually timed to their airplay peaks, so top ten debuts became commonplace. And, as others have pointed out, the rise of instant information on the internet in the late 90s meant fans were more aware of when singles were released, making their impact more immediate.

[brady47]

Sept 29, 2019 13:01:24 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Sept 29, 2019 12:41:44 GMT -5 brady47 said:

This might be off topic: But I just heard this amazing mashup of "bad guy" and Britney Spears' "Toxic"

sowndhaus.audio/track/13284/bad-toxic

This is SICK!

A double-digit week, number one SMASH if such was ever released in 2019.

Coming for a 2nd week at #1, get that remix Billie!

[renfield75]

Sept 29, 2019 12:56:57 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

Sept 29, 2019 12:40:28 GMT -5 jebsib said:

The week MJ debuted at #37 was stellar - debuting at #37 was absolutely amazing and rare.
Once the stores got fully stocked with the singles, it blasted up to #16.
Again, an almost unprecedented move back then.

How the hell did The Beatles have two songs debut at #10 in the 1960’s and another debut at #6 in 1970? LOL. I didn’t find that out until today. That’s incredible. I thought MJ would’ve scored the same feat. during his ‘80’s peak.

Different chart era and buying methods presumably in the ‘60’s compared to the ‘80’s.

Some more information on why the Beatles had top ten debuts in the 60s but Michael didn't in the 80s: In 1968, Billboard made the Top 50 of the Hot 100 solely sales based. Airplay only factored into songs 51-100. This lasted until 1973. Therefore, what I said above about airplay causing hot singles to debut early wouldn't have impacted songs from 1968-1973...the years in which the Beatles had those massive debuts.

[Mayman]

Sept 29, 2019 12:41:44 GMT -5 brady47 said:

This might be off topic: But I just heard this amazing mashup of "bad guy" and Britney Spears' "Toxic"

sowndhaus.audio/track/13284/bad-toxic

This is really good

[jebsib]

MJ's highest debut from the Thriller or Bad era was the 7th single, Thriller debuting at #20 - and even that was an outlier: By that point, EVERYONE owned the LP, the song was famous, the video had debuted weeks earlier on MTV (hugely promoted and 'viral' (for its day) and the record company held back release of the commercial single so as not to compete with Say Say Say. In fact the week of its #20 debut, the airplay-only track was #1 on the R&R Pop chart, the first ever such situation (Think Iris and Don't Speak 12 or so years later). Thus, its lofty debut was artificial.

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

I feel like "No Guidance" should peak within Top 5.

[nekotuo]

Sept 29, 2019 16:46:08 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

I feel like "No Guidance" should peak within Top 5.

absolutely agree. it has performed amazingly consistent on streaming for a chris brown song even though drake is on it

[thegreatdivine]

No Guidance is Drake's biggest feature hit since Look Alive which came out almost 20 months ago. That answer would be Sicko Mode if he was formally credited as a featured artist, but yeah, the song has done really well and has been really consistent. It's performed way better that I ever thought it would and at this rate, it could spend up to 18 weeks in the top 10.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Sept 29, 2019 19:12:57 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

No Guidance is Drake's biggest feature hit since Look Alive which came out almost 20 months ago. That answer would be Sicko Mode if he was formally credited as a featured artist, but yeah, the song has done really well and has been really consistent. It's performed way better that I ever thought it would and at this rate, it could spend up to 18 weeks in the top 10.

I remember when I thought this will be in the top 10 for one week.

[brady47]

"No Guidance" is likely going to be Chris Brown's biggest hit since "Forever"

It's longevity in the top 10 is crazy, and Drake and Chris Brown's vocals go so well together with the song.

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 29, 2019 19:18:35 GMT -5 brady47 said:

"No Guidance" is likely going to be Chris Brown's biggest hit since "Forever"

It's longevity in the top 10 is crazy, and Drake and Chris Brown's vocals go so well together with the song.

It's also one of those rare songs that was really well-received and critically acclaimed upon arrival. I haven't met or seen many people who don't genuinely like the song. It just repeaked on Rhythmic Radio for the fourth straight time, in it's fifth non-consecutive week at #1. It was Chris' first song to reach #1 on Apple Music and it's by far the most streamed song on his album.

The song has really done wonders for Chris. It's the sole reason why his album has remained in the top 10 for so long. And to think that the person who'd give him his biggest hit as a lead artist in over 12 years would be the guy he'd had bad blood with for several years, to the point of having a public physical brawl with, is hilarious to me.

Funny how things work. Drake beefs with Meek Mill and Chris Brown, years later, they make up and he gives Meek Mill the biggest hit of his career so far and gives Chris one of the biggest hits of his career.

[divasummer]

Sept 29, 2019 12:58:49 GMT -5 kierz7 said:

@jebsib

•Important to remember that during this period the Hot 100 was primarily an airplay chart. People had given up on 45rpm records singles, there were almost no CD singles, and cassingles were just beginning their foothold (virtually non existent before Bryan Adams' Heat of the Night). So sales totals did not stabilize or influence the chart that much … and airplay was regulated by unstable radio playlist reports usually phoned in by young interns. Once a song peaked at a station, it would be removed on that stations' playlist immediately.•

Thank you for this information.

I was 10 in 87 and I always remember being able to buy a cassette or vinyl single.
The only times you couldn't get singles were in the mid 90's.
The vinyl transitioned very well into people buying cassette's into buying cd's..
I was last to give up every format. LoL

[HolidayGuy]

Looking at the historical charts, I was listening to America's Greatest Hits this weekend, and in the top 5 20 years ago in 1989, it was "Miss You Much" at 5, "Cherish" at 4 and "If I Could Turn Back Time" at 3. Diva takeover, it was. :)

[sirskimask]

Sept 29, 2019 19:12:57 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

No Guidance is Drake's biggest feature hit since Look Alive which came out almost 20 months ago. That answer would be Sicko Mode if he was formally credited as a featured artist, but yeah, the song has done really well and has been really consistent. It's performed way better that I ever thought it would and at this rate, it could spend up to 18 weeks in the top 10.

Going Bad?

[Au$tin]

Sept 29, 2019 22:46:33 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Sept 29, 2019 19:12:57 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

No Guidance is Drake's biggest feature hit since Look Alive which came out almost 20 months ago. That answer would be Sicko Mode if he was formally credited as a featured artist, but yeah, the song has done really well and has been really consistent. It's performed way better that I ever thought it would and at this rate, it could spend up to 18 weeks in the top 10.

Going Bad?

Definitely did not perform as well as the three aforementioned tracks. (Unless we're referring specifically to peaks.) "Biggest X since" means you have to back to the since to find something bigger, and certainly "Going Bad" was not bigger than "No Guidance" in terms of overall stats. (Yes, I realize they have the same peak, but peaks are not the end all be all.) To find Drake's last feature bigger than "No Guidance," you definitely need to refer back to "Look Alive" or "Sicko Mode" depending on your definition of feature. (Given credit vs. known credit)

[Deleted]

Sept 29, 2019 23:16:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Sept 29, 2019 22:46:33 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Going Bad?

Definitely did not perform as well as the three aforementioned tracks. (Unless we're referring specifically to peaks.) "Biggest X since" means you have to back to the since to find something bigger, and certainly "Going Bad" was not bigger than "No Guidance" in terms of overall stats. (Yes, I realize they have the same peak, but peaks are not the end all be all.) To find Drake's last feature bigger than "No Guidance," you definitely need to refer back to "Look Alive" or "Sicko Mode" depending on your definition of feature. (Given credit vs. known credit)

Isn't going bad currently 12 on the building YEC? It's definitely was bigger than Look Alive lol

[thegreatdivine]

Sept 29, 2019 23:21:33 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Sept 29, 2019 23:16:48 GMT -5 Au$tin said:

Definitely did not perform as well as the three aforementioned tracks. (Unless we're referring specifically to peaks.) "Biggest X since" means you have to back to the since to find something bigger, and certainly "Going Bad" was not bigger than "No Guidance" in terms of overall stats. (Yes, I realize they have the same peak, but peaks are not the end all be all.) To find Drake's last feature bigger than "No Guidance," you definitely need to refer back to "Look Alive" or "Sicko Mode" depending on your definition of feature. (Given credit vs. known credit)

Isn't going bad currently 12 on the building YEC? It's definitely was bigger than Look Alive lol

If I'm not mistaken, a new Billboard calendar year starts in the first week of December of the previous year, right? Going Bad was released on the last day of November, so it had it's first full tracking week in the first week of Billboard's calendar year. Look Alive was released on the 9th of February. I don't think the building YEC tells the whole story.

Look Alive has more streams on Spotify and Apple Music. It's music video has garnered more views. It spent more weeks in the top 10 than Going Bad and peaked higher than Going Bad did. It's currently certified 4x Platinum (Going Bad has moved just over 3 million units in the US), but has moved over 7 million units in the US.

Now, where Going Bad outperformed Look Alive was on radio. Going Bad peaked at #1 on Rhythmic and Urban radio, Look Alive didn't. Also, if I'm not mistaken, Going Bad charted for more weeks than Look Alive did, but if I had to guess, I'd say that Look Alive is a bigger hit using chart points than Going Bad is.

For me, personally, in the streaming era, I think the biggest songs are the ones that moved the most units, not necessarily the ones that peaked higher or charted longer. A song could completely dominate radio and spend months in the top 10, but be a non-entity on streaming and it'll end up moving less units than a song that had no weeks in the top 10, but remained consistent on streaming throughout it's chart run. The idea of a hit record means something different to everybody.

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2019 1:58:53 GMT -5 thegreatdivine said:

Sept 29, 2019 23:21:33 GMT -5 @drakeisskinny said:

Isn't going bad currently 12 on the building YEC? It's definitely was bigger than Look Alive lol

If I'm not mistaken, a new Billboard calendar year starts in the first week of December of the previous year, right? Going Bad was released on the last day of November, so it had it's first full tracking week in the first week of Billboard's calendar year. Look Alive was released on the 9th of February. I don't think the building YEC tells the whole story.

Look Alive has more streams on Spotify and Apple Music. It's music video has garnered more views. It spent more weeks in the top 10 than Going Bad and peaked higher than Going Bad did. It's currently certified 4x Platinum (Going Bad has moved just over 3 million units in the US), but has moved over 7 million units in the US.

Now, where Going Bad outperformed Look Alive was on radio. Going Bad peaked at #1 on Rhythmic and Urban radio, Look Alive didn't. Also, if I'm not mistaken, Going Bad charted for more weeks than Look Alive did, but if I had to guess, I'd say that Look Alive is a bigger hit using chart points than Going Bad is.

For me, personally, in the streaming era, I think the biggest songs are the ones that moved the most units, not necessarily the ones that peaked higher or charted longer. A song could completely dominate radio and spend months in the top 10, but be a non-entity on streaming and it'll end up moving less units than a song that had no weeks in the top 10, but remained consistent on streaming throughout it's chart run. The idea of a hit record means something different to everybody.

Idk why you're bringing up it being released in February when both of which had there full charts run in there respective years and didn't going bad spend like 13 more weeks charting than Look Alive ? So I think it might have more chart points but you can't compare that cuz the formula was different and the amount of chart points r lower now than they where when look alive peaked.

You're way of selling units to tell what the bigger hit isn't fair since radio doesn't impact units at all and it's sells huge radio hits short

[thegreatdivine]

@drakeisskinny that's my point exactly. A label can easily work a song on radio, but even with bought Spotify playlist support, a musician's fans still have to stream that song consistently for it to keep putting up decent streaming figures. Also, the way playlisting works, if a song gets a high placement on a playlist, but doesn't get enough engagement, it soon gets pushed down and if that continues, it gets taken off the playlist completely, regardless of how much was paid for the song to get placed on that playlist to begin with.

I believe dominating in streaming > dominating in radio because you make no money and you get no plaques of achievement off radio impressions.

A song with 300 million radio audience impressions that pulls in 10 million US streams weekly over a 52-week run will move less than 4 million units from 520 million streams in the US. Compare that to a song that gets no radio support whatsoever, but manages to pull 30 million US streams weekly over a 52-week run. That song moves over 10 million units in the US from over 1.5 billion streams. That equates to a diamond plaque and more money off streams.

Now, granted, the song with massive radio support will peak higher than the song with no radio support at all, but it all depends on what your idea of success is. Chart success is also a kind of success, but I believe whatever leads to making more money off a song equates to a more significant level of success and between radio and streaming, streaming wins that argument.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2019/09/30

1(=) Lizzo - Truth Hurts 158.79(+0.12)
2(=) Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita 151.52(+0.19)
3(=) Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 123.02(-0.10)
4(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 121.16(+0.59)
5(=) Khalid - Talk 109.58(-0.74)
6(=) Jonas Brothers - Sucker 102.55(+0.02)
7(=) Billie Eilish - bad guy 87.16(-0.60)
8(=) Chris Brown - No Guidance (feat. Drake) 85.48(-0.07)
9(=) Post Malone - Goodbyes (feat. Young Thug) 84.72(-0.18)
10(=) Ed Sheeran - Beautiful People (feat. Khalid) 74.99(-0.05)

12(+1) Jonas Brothers - Only Human 66.17(+0.70)

34(+1) Wale - On Chill (feat. Jeremih) 39.95(+0.77)

61(+2) Camila Cabello - Liar 26.95(+0.93)

65(+1) Chris Brown - Heat (feat. Gunna) 25.74(+0.77)

66(+6) Maroon 5 - Memories 25.56(+2.08)

78(+3) Lizzo - Good as Hell 21.45(+1.11)

80(+3) Halsey - Graveyard 20.69(+1.25)

89(+4) Layton Greene, Lil Baby & City Girls - Leave Em Alone (feat. PnB Rock) 18.45(+0.96)

[Gary]

Lizzo's 'Truth Hurts' Leads Hot 100 For 5th Week, Chris Brown's 'No Guidance' Is His First Top 5 Hit Since 2008

9/30/2019 by Gary Trust


Brown had last reached the region with 'Forever.'
Lizzo logs her fifth week atop the Billboard Hot 100 with "Truth Hurts."
Plus, Chris Brown notches his first top five Hot 100 hit since 2008, as "No Guidance," featuring Drake, rises from No. 7 to No. 5.

Let's run down the top 10 of the Hot 100 (dated Oct. 5), which blends all-genre U.S. streaming, radio airplay and sales data. All charts will update on Billboard.com tomorrow (Oct. 1).

"Truth," released on Nice Life/Atlantic Records, extends its mark for the longest reign for a rap No. 1 by a female artist unaccompanied by another act. One week ago, it surpassed Cardi B's three-week rule with "Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)" in October 2017. (One other rap No. 1 by a female artist and no accompanying acts has led the list: Lauryn Hill's "Doo Wop [That Thing]," for two weeks in 1998.)

Among all rap No. 1s by female artists, "Truth" moves to within two weeks of potentially tying for the longest command: Iggy Azalea spent seven weeks on top with "Fancy," featuring Charli XCX, in 2014.

"Truth" tops the Radio Songs chart for a second week, up 3% to 119.4 million audience impressions in the week ending Sept. 29, according to Nielsen Music. It dips to No. 2 after four week atop Digital Song Sales, down 5% to 26,000 sold, and rises 8-7 on Streaming Songs, down 6% to 27.5 million U.S. streams, in the week ending Sept. 26.

"Truth" additionally posts a sixth week at No. 1 on both the Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and Hot Rap Songs genre charts (which employ the same multi-metric methodology as the Hot 100).

Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello's "Señorita" stays at No. 2 on the Hot 100, after leading the Aug. 31-dated chart; Lewis Capaldi's "Someone You Loved" ascends 4-3 for a new high; and Lil Tecca's "Ran$om" returns to its No. 4 best, from No. 6, while topping Streaming Songs for a sixth week (45.8 million, up 2%).

Chris Brown's "No Guidance," featuring Drake, reaches the Hot 100's top five, rising 7-5 and besting its prior No. 6 high; it debuted at No. 9 on the June 22-dated chart and has spent all but two of its 16 weeks on the list in the top 10.

Brown earns his first top five Hot 100 hit in over 11 years, since "Forever" ranked at No. 4 on Sept. 20, 2008, after reaching No. 2. His four other top five entries: "No Air," with Jordin Sparks (No. 3, 2008); "With You" (No. 2, 2008); "Kiss Kiss," featuring T-Pain (No. 1 for three weeks, 2007); and "Run It!" (No. 1, five weeks, 2005).

"No Guidance" is from Brown's album Indigo, which debuted atop the July 13 Billboard 200, marking his third No. 1 and first since 2012. The track lifts 4-3 on Streaming Songs (32.8 million, down 1%), holds at No. 9 on Radio Songs (62 million, up 1%) and climbs 31-22 on Digital Song Sales (6,000, down 1%).

Meanwhile, Drake collects his 15th top five Hot 100 hit, becoming the 17th artist to amass such a sum or better. The Beatles lead with 29 top five Hot 100 hits, followed by Madonna (28), Mariah Carey (27), Janet Jackson (24) and Rihanna (23).

"No Guidance" concurrently leads Hot R&B Songs for a fifth week.

Rounding out the Hot 100's top 10, Lil Nas X's "Panini" slips to No. 6 from its No. 5 high; Billie Eilish's "Bad Guy," which ruled the Aug. 24 ranking, tumbles 3-7; Post Malone's "Circles" pushes 9-8 after reaching No. 4 and "Goodbyes," featuring Young Thug, falls 8-9 after hitting No. 3; and Lil Nas X's record 19-week No. 1 "Old Town Road," featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, is stationary at No. 10.

Find out more Hot 100 news on Billboard.com this week, and, for all chart news, you can listen (and subscribe) to Billboard's Chart Beat Podcast and Pop Shop Podcast and follow billboard and billboardcharts on both Twitter and Instagram. And again, be sure to visit Billboard.com tomorrow (Oct. 1), when all charts, including the Hot 100 in its entirety, will refresh.

[moonlite]

F*CK YES, FINALLY NO GUIDANCE HIT TOP 5

[Gary]

1. Truth Hurts 5th week
2. Senorita
3. Someone You Loved
4. Ran$om
5. No Guidance
6. Panini
7. Bad Guy
8. Circles
9. Goodbyes
10. Old Town Road

[Golden Bluebird]

[Gary]

Components

#1 Radio Truth Hurts 119.4
#1 Streaming Ran$om 45.8
#1 Digital --- ???

[shaz196]

How many top 5 hits does Drake have now?

[Gary]

Meanwhile, Drake collects his 15th top five Hot 100 hit, becoming the 17th artist to amass such a sum or better. The Beatles lead with 29 top five Hot 100 hits, followed by Madonna (28), Mariah Carey (27), Janet Jackson (24) and Rihanna (23).