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Post by plankton5165 on Mar 11, 2021 12:25:35 GMT -5
I've been close to cracking the old decade-end formula (1980s and 1990s) for two days now.
But I can't seem to crack the formula. Trying to do it is so frustrating.
Either I'll Be There, Return Of The Mack, or both, are higher than Nuthin' But A "G" Thang and/or My All respectively.
Even though I'll Be There scores similarly to My All and Return Of The Mack scores similarly to Nuthin' But A "G" Thang.
This is an example of a formula that is close (only one song is at least 10 positions away from where it actually was in the '90s decade-end, at least if referring to songs that cracked the decade-end only):
4 points for every week spent at #1
1 point for every week spent in the top 2
1 point for every week spent in the top 3
1 point for every week spent in the top 5
1 point for every week spent in the top 10
The song that is at least 10 positions away is Kiss From A Rose (#70, the song was #58).
Its strongpoint is weeks in the top 5.
So I change the # of points for every week spent in the top 5 to 2, but that makes #100 (Return Of The Mack) higher than #97, #98, and #99, and when I change the # to top 5 points back to 1, #100 is once again tied with #99.
I can't seem to get Nuthin But A "G" Thang ahead of I'll Be There, while keeping My All ahead of Return Of The Mack.
And after I do other things it seems like I need to do, there are more songs that are off by more than 10 positions.
You might think "maybe it's chart points"? I'd say nah, Return Of The Mack had more chart points than My All in this top 10 inverse point system: 1. 10 points 2. 9 points 3. 8 points 4. 7 points 5. 6 points 6. 5 points 7. 4 points 8. 3 points 9. 2 points 10. 1 point
On average, every week in the top 10, Return On The Mack would also take slightly more points than My All.
I don't think TW is counted, I think songs only get points if they were in the top 10.
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jodakyellow
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Post by jodakyellow on Mar 13, 2021 12:36:47 GMT -5
Willow being so close to Cardigan’s total chart points.. I’m here for it
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 16, 2021 17:30:10 GMT -5
Hot 100 GOAT List With Pure Inverse (#1 = 100 pts, #2 = 99 points...) - Updated as of 3/20/2021 chart
1 (+1) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 6,020 2 (-1) Imagine Dragons - Radioactive 5,932 3 Post Malone - Circles 5,625 4 LeAnn Rimes - How Do I Live 5,615 5 Jewel - Foolish Games/You Were Meant For Me 5,499 6 Jason Mraz - I'm Yours 5,433 7 LMFAO ft. Lauren Bennett, GoonRock - Party Rock Anthem 5,351 8 Ed Sheeran - Shape of You 5,279 9 OneRepublic - Counting Stars 5,079 10 Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars - Uptown Funk 4,963
11 Adele - Rolling in the Deep 4,958 12 Post Malone, Swae Lee - Sunflower 4,860 13 Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth- I Hope 4,842 14 Santana ft. Rob Thomas - Smooth 4,838 15 Ed Sheeran - Perfect 4,818 16 Gotye ft. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used to Know 4,676 17 Maroon 5 ft. Cardi B - Girls Like You 4,643 18 Black Eyed Peas - I Gotta Feeling 4,631 19 Halsey - Without Me 4,615 20 Lady Antebellum - Need You Now 4,614
21 (tie) Katy Perry ft. Juicy J - Dark Horse 4,613 21 (tie) Carrie Underwood - Before He Cheats 4,613 23 Chainsmokers ft. Halsey - Closer 4,581 24 Savage Garden - Truly Madly Deeply 4,548 25 Next - Too Close 4,518 26 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 4,500 27 Los Del Rio - Macarena (Bayside Boys Mix) 4,490 28 Marshmello ft. Bastille - Happier 4,469 29 Ed Sheeran - Thinking Out Loud 4,423 30 Travis Scott - SICKO MODE 4,409
31 Post Malone - Better Now 4,366 32 The Lumineers - Ho Hey 4,343 33 Billie Eilish - bad guy 4,342 34 Fetty Wap - Trap Queen 4,319 35 Lifehouse - Hanging By A Moment 4,310 36 John Legend - All of Me 4,285 37 Bruno Mars - That's What I Like 4,283 38 Justin Timberlake - Can't Stop the Feeling 4,277 39 Avicii - Wake Me Up! 4,265 40 Bebe Rexha ft. Florida Georgia Line - Meant to Be 4,228
41 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 4,216 42 Sam Smith - Stay With Me 4,193 43 Lifehouse - You and Me 4,183 44 Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe 4,161 45 The Weeknd - The Hills 4,159 46 Cardi B, Bad Bunny, J Balvin - I Like It 4,153 47 Faith Hill - Breathe 4,135 48 matchbox twenty - Unwell 4,127 49 The Chainsmokers ft. Daya - Don't Let Me Down 4,123 50 Train - Hey, Soul Sister 4,114
51 Luis Fonsi, Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber - Despacito 4,104 52 Taylor Swift - Shake It Off 4,102 53 Lonestar - Amazed 4,085 54 Coldplay - Viva La Vida 4,078 55 Paula Cole - I Don't Want to Wait 4,066 56 Harry Styles - Adore You 4,059 57 Benny Blanco, Halsey, Khalid - Eastside 4,058 58 Taylor Swift - Love Story 4,043 59 Juice WRLD - Lucid Dreams 4,029 60 AWOLNATION - Sail 3,997
61 Imagine Dragons - Believer 3,993 62 Taylor Swift - You Belong With Me 3,990 63 Florida Georgia Line ft. Nelly - Cruise (Remix) 3,989 64 Wiz Khalifa ft. Charlie Puth - See You Again 3,969 65 Maroon 5 ft. Christina Aguilera - Moves Like Jagger 3,957 66 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 3,951 67 (tie) Bruno Mars - Just the Way You Are 3,950 67 (tie) 3 Doors Down - Kryptonite 3,950 69 Nickelback - How You Remind Me 3,936 70 Train - Drops of Jupiter (Tell Me) 3,932
71 Fergie - Big Girls Don't Cry 3,930 72 fun. - Some Nights 3,929 73 Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road 3,926 74 3 Doors Down - Here Without You 3,923 75 (tie) Shawn Mendes - Stitches 3,915 75 (tie) Panic! at the Disco - High Hopes 3,915 77 Pharrell - Happy 3,898 78 Meghan Trainor - All About That Bass 3,897 79 Silento - Watch Me 3,889 80 Tag Team - Whoomp! (There It is) 3,880
81 Faith Hill - The Way You Love Me 3,867 82 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 3,860 83 Usher - You Make Me Wanna 3,851 84 Robin Thicke ft. T.I., Pharrell - Blurred Lines 3,850 85 Taio Cruz - Dynamite 3,845 86 Cee Lo Green - f**k You (Forget You) 3,824 87 Macklemore & Ryan Lewis ft. Wanz - Thrift Shop 3,823 88 (tie) Usher ft. Lil Jon, Ludacris - Yeah! 3,817 88 (tie) Sia ft. Sean Paul - Cheap Thrills 3,817 90 Kings of Leon - Use Somebody 3,782
91 The Tony Rich Project - Nobody Knows 3,780 92 Pitbull ft. Ne-Yo, Afrojack, Nayer - Give Me Everything 3,779 93 Post Malone - Wow. 3,767 94 Duncan Sheik - Barely Breathing 3,763 95 Everything But the Girl - Missing 3,743 96 Timbaland ft. OneRepublic - Apologize 3,741 97 twenty one pilots - Stressed Out 3,722 98 Real McCoy - Another Night 3,719 99 Shania Twain - You're Still the One 3,714 100 Post Malone ft. 21 Savage - rockstar 3,706
Congrats to Blinding Lights on officially becoming the new Pure Inverse GOAT!
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Mar 16, 2021 19:02:13 GMT -5
To reiterate what's in the post above, in the straight inverse point system, Blinding Lights became the song with the most points all time this week. Using what's believed to be the official Billboard criteria, Blinding Lights is still at #2 all time. Last Week | Rank | Chg | Track | Artist | 2 | 2 | 0 | Blinding Lights | The Weeknd | 96 | 79 | 17 | Mood | 24KGoldn and Iann Dior | 1313 | 1256 | 57 | Go Crazy | Chris Brown and Young Thug | 1379 | 1332 | 47 | positions | Ariana Grande | 1482 | 1460 | 22 | Dynamite | BTS | 2042 | 2021 | 21 | Holy | Justin Bieber and Chance the Rapper | 2361 | 2123 | 238 | Driver's License | Olivia Rodrigo | 3157 | 3093 | 64 | For The Night | Pop Smoke | 3408 | 3187 | 221 | 34+35 | Ariana Grande | 3348 | 3272 | 76 | Levitating | Dua Lipa | 4511 | 4426 | 85 | Dakiti | Bad Bunny and Jhay Cortez | 4992 | 4567 | 425 | Save Your Tears | The Weeknd | 5219 | 4992 | 227 | What You Know Bout Love | Pop Smoke | 5336 | 5172 | 164 | Therefore I Am | Billie Eilish | 5913 | 5222 | 691 | Up | Cardi B | 6399 | 6123 | 276 | Good Days | SZA | 6956 | 6827 | 129 | Willow | Taylor Swift | 7125 | 6930 | 195 | Whoopty | CJ | 7171 | 7010 | 161 | Better Together | Luke Combs | 7291 | 7202 | 89 | Body
| Megan Thee Stallion | 8091 | 7648 | 443 | Calling My Phone | Lil Tjay and 6lack | 8365 | 7937 | 428 | You Broke Me First | Tate Mcrae | 8054 | 7960 | 94 | Goosebumps | Travis Scott and Kendrick Lamar | 8466 | 8149 | 317 | My Ex's Best Friend | Machine Gun Kelly and Blackbear | 8787 | 8683 | 104 | Forever After All | Luke Combs | 9269 | 8960 | 309 | Anyone
| Justin Bieber | 9312 | 9038 | 274 | Starting Over | Chris Stapleton |
How close is Blinding Lights to #1 all-time? It could be realistically be as little as 3 weeks away, if it spends those 3 weeks in the weekly top ten. (Probable, since I think it's likely to move back up on the chart next week.) But if it only spends two more weeks in the top ten, it will break the record if it spends the next 3 weeks in the top 19. Yeah, it's that specific.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Mar 19, 2021 3:18:37 GMT -5
Week 66/521
LW TW ARTIST SONG POINTS 1 1 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 1,726,484 2 2 Roddy Ricch - The Box 1,027,650 3 3 Post Malone - Circles 1,012,690 4 4 DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR 998,175 5 5 24kGoldn ft. iann dior - Mood 988,032 ~ALL-TIME LIST CUTOFF: 980,552~ 6 6 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 725,985 ~2010'S CUTOFF: 662,382~ 7 7 Gabby Barrett ft. Charlie Puth - I Hope 652,163 8 8 Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good 637,755 9 9 Drake ft. Lil Durk - Laugh Now Cry Later 620,660 10 10 Doja Cat - Say So 556,903
13 11 Chris Brown, Young Thug - Go Crazy 544,428 11 12 Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez, Lil Wayne - WHATS POPPIN 543,539 12 13 Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce - Savage 537,574 14 14 Cardi B, Megan Thee Stallion - WAP 534,280 15 15 Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions 531,080 17 16 Ariana Grande - positions 531,060 16 17 Maroon 5 - Memories 529,295 18 18 BTS - Dynamite 523,260 19 19 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 515,100 20 20 Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 510,085
21 21 Jawsh 685, Jason Derulo - Savage Love 494,213 22 22 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 493,631 23 23 Harry Styles - Adore You 477,615 24 24 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 469,285 25 25 Justin Bieber ft. Chance the Rapper - Holy 439,320 28 26 Olivia Rodrigo - drivers license 411,200 26 27 Tones & I - Dance Monkey 400,435 27 28 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You 395,205 29 29 Drake - Toosie Slide 356,235 30 30 Pop Smoke ft. Lil Baby, DaBaby - For the Night 326,705
31 31 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 319,428 32 32 Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 316,030 36 33 Ariana Grande - 34+35 307,995 33 34 Billie Eilish - everything I wanted 305,660 35 35 Dua Lipa ft. DaBaby - Levitating 299,068 34 36 Internet Money, Gunna ft. Don Toliver, NAV - Lemonade 293,378 37 37 Brenda Lee - Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 275,475 38 38 Maren Morris - The Bones 272,476 39 39 Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 264,503 40 40 Lizzo - Good As Hell 249,645
41 41 Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 229,925 42 42 The Weeknd - Heartless 226,440 43 43 AJR - Bang! 203,207 44 44 Lady Gaga, Ariana Grande - Rain On Me 201,960 46 45 Bad Bunny, Jhay Cortez - Dakiti 199,635 45 46 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 198,625 53 47 The Weeknd - Save Your Tears 182,800 47 48 Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 181,645 48 49 Trevor Daniel - Falling 180,710 49 50 Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin' 175,695
50 51 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 168,760 51 52 Juice WRLD, Marshmello - Come & Go 167,875 52 53 blackbear - hot girl bummer 166,685 55 54 Pop Smoke - What You Know Bout Love 161,089 54 55 DaBaby - BOP 154,700 57 56 Billie Eilish - Therefore I Am 154,647 63 57 Cardi B - Up 149,120 56 58 Andy Williams - It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 148,470 58 59 Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My 145,843 59 60 DJ Khaled, Drake - Popstar 137,411
60 61 Morgan Wallen - Chasin You 135,031 61 62 Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion 134,470 62 63 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 133,195 64 64 Ava Max - Kings & Queens 120,576 65 65 Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed 118,626 69 66 SZA - Good Days 117,440 66 67 Justin Bieber - Yummy 114,801 67 68 Justin Bieber, Benny Blanco - Lonely 114,200 68 69 THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott, Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS 112,880 70 70 Morgan Wallen - More Than My Hometown 108,582
71 71 Ariana Grande, Justin Bieber - stuck with u 108,511 72 72 Jose Feliciano - Feliz Navidad 107,570 73 73 Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita 107,100 74 74 Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 106,845 75 75 Lil Baby - The Bigger Picture 105,961 76 76 Taylor Swift - cardigan 105,009 78 77 Taylor Swift - willow 103,960 77 78 Kane Brown ft. Swae Lee, Khalid - Be Like That 103,326 79 79 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - We Paid 100,759 82 80 CJ - Whoopty 99,189
GOAT List: 2. Blinding Lights (=) 96. Mood (+16) 1346. Go Crazy (+229) 1429. positions (+54) 1480. Dynamite (+16)
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azul120
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Post by azul120 on Mar 20, 2021 20:16:38 GMT -5
Also even a #1 like "Say So" which actually had a really decent chart run for a #1 today, has lower points than every single #1 hit from the 1980s. Say So: 507,392 Smallest #1 of the 1980s (Dirty Diana): 543,756 Even "Life Is Good", an 8-week #2 has less points than the weakest #1 of the 1980s. The formula is literally now at a point where either a song does massive on the all-time list after spending lots of weeks top 10 (Circles, Blinding Lights, The Box) or it just does absolutely terrible on the all-time list even it has a nice run (Savage, Say So, Life Is Good). There is no inbetween. Billboard def has got to reevaulate the point system for today. Problem is there's no really easy solution. The fact is that there is a much greater disparity between the, say #10 & #100 songs of the year today than there was 30 or 40 years ago. Not unlike the distribution of wealth, the "Ricch" are getting a much larger slice of the pie, while the poorer charting songs are getting a lot less. If you try to even the scenario out for one era, you end up over exaggerating a different era. I've done analysis on the distribution of tracks by decade on the top songs from my list and here's how it breaks down: Years | Top 100 | Top 500 | Top 1000 | Top 5000 | Top 10000 | 1950s | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1960s | 9.0% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 20.2% | 21.7% | 1970s | 13.0% | 18.2% | 19.8% | 20.5% | 20.4% | 1980s | 18.0% | 20.0% | 23.2% | 21.8% | 20.1% | 1990s | 20.0% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 14.0% | 13.5% | 2000s | 12.0% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 2010s | 25.0% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 2020s | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
The Hot 100 began in August 1958, so the numbers for the 50's are small. And of course, the 2020's have barely begun in chart terms.
Ideally, each decade (except the 50's & 20's) should get about 15% of tracks over a reasonable number of songs. But fully a quarter of the all-time top 100 are from 2010 to 2019 - a significant oversampling, while the 1960s are underrepresented with only 9 tracks in the top 100.
Now when you extend that to the top 500, the number of tracks each decade is more reasonably even. The 1980s now becomes the most represented decade with 100 of the 500 songs but no one decade seems to be greatly over- or under-represented. By the point where the top 10,000 songs are included, the rich/poor gap of the past couple of decades really shows. The 60's becomes the most represented decade (21.7%), the 2010's least (a mere 9.3%). If the ideal was to get nearly the same number of tracks from each decade in the top 600, they did a pretty good job.
Pardon the quote revive, but only just took a deep dive through the thread. One notable thing is that the 90s was the only decade to register a decline on every lower tier. Also, the years of 1992 and 1993 had perhaps the least amount of top 600 of all time entries. One theory I have is that 1994 was when radio airplay was now electronically tabulated, accounting for the progressively longer chart stays.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Mar 21, 2021 17:42:15 GMT -5
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Mar 21, 2021 20:44:59 GMT -5
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azul120
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Post by azul120 on Mar 21, 2021 21:57:51 GMT -5
Nice. Thanks.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Mar 22, 2021 20:19:07 GMT -5
60s-10s full decade end lists have been posted in the sheet
Now, I have to figure out: 1. Artists lists 2. Gathering data such as top 10s, peak date, etc. 3. Seeing if I'm able to post this into a weekly format (Being able to do a LW/TW like I've been doing)
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azul120
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Post by azul120 on Mar 22, 2021 20:55:27 GMT -5
As well as weeks in the top 10? I understand it's a bit of a tall order.
General question: has anyone tackled or thought of tackling the Modern Rock/Alternative charts?
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 22, 2021 21:18:17 GMT -5
60s-10s full decade end lists have been posted in the sheet Now, I have to figure out: 1. Artists lists 2. Gathering data such as top 10s, peak date, etc. 3. Seeing if I'm able to post this into a weekly format (Being able to do a LW/TW like I've been doing) If you’re willing to pay for it, racpro.com makes all of that a lot easier. You can look up songs by year, title or artist, and it’ll show you the entire chart run in a single sheet, including the chart date.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Mar 22, 2021 21:45:32 GMT -5
60s-10s full decade end lists have been posted in the sheet Now, I have to figure out: 1. Artists lists 2. Gathering data such as top 10s, peak date, etc. 3. Seeing if I'm able to post this into a weekly format (Being able to do a LW/TW like I've been doing) If you’re willing to pay for it, racpro.com makes all of that a lot easier. You can look up songs by year, title or artist, and it’ll show you the entire chart run in a single sheet, including the chart date. I have the racpro subscription and use it frequently, but the problem is that I'm not able to download the archives
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 22, 2021 21:49:29 GMT -5
Oh and for fixing the inverse system to be more accurate, there is a solution if Billboard is willing to put in the effort. Stop using the same inverse for every year and slapping a simple multiplier on it. Instead, they need to create different inverse systems for every “era” (however you want to define that). The inverse can be based on average point totals per position or average chart run. After that, create a general distribution based on those inverses (make sure that distribution has the same curve for every era). Look for the songs which stand out as outliers. Base the all time list on whichever songs have the highest outlier value for a given era.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Mar 22, 2021 23:44:43 GMT -5
As well as weeks in the top 10? I understand it's a bit of a tall order. General question: has anyone tackled or thought of tackling the Modern Rock/Alternative charts? working on it, its a pivot table doing all the calculations and its not co-operating with me on that I'm currently working on cracking the Alternative Airplay GOAT list, I'll probably try Hot Rock/Alt next
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Mar 23, 2021 2:12:50 GMT -5
LMAO at Trollz literally 19 spots away from the top 10,000. Never has a bigger L been taken.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Mar 23, 2021 5:09:52 GMT -5
Hot 100 GOAT List GOAT List: 2. Blinding Lights (=) 81. Mood (+15) 1304. Go Crazy (+42) 1380. positions (+49) 1460. Dynamite (+20)
I'll post decade end sometime this week
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 23, 2021 5:17:27 GMT -5
With Blinding Lights moving to #1 on the all-time Pure Inverse chart, I will just update its points each week just to see how much the gap widens between it and #2.
1 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 6,115 2 Imagine Dragons - Radioactive 5,932
Gap widens to 183 points, equivalent to a week at #10 and a week at #9.
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Post by plankton5165 on Mar 23, 2021 22:31:03 GMT -5
Oh and for fixing the inverse system to be more accurate, there is a solution if Billboard is willing to put in the effort. Stop using the same inverse for every year and slapping a simple multiplier on it. Instead, they need to create different inverse systems for every “era” (however you want to define that). The inverse can be based on average point totals per position or average chart run. After that, create a general distribution based on those inverses (make sure that distribution has the same curve for every era). Look for the songs which stand out as outliers. Base the all time list on whichever songs have the highest outlier value for a given era. On page 19, I explained something like that, that changes a score during a Neilsen SoundScan era from 700,000 to 770,000. But, the scores over 1 million during a Neilsen SoundScan era stay the same.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 24, 2021 5:01:41 GMT -5
Oh and for fixing the inverse system to be more accurate, there is a solution if Billboard is willing to put in the effort. Stop using the same inverse for every year and slapping a simple multiplier on it. Instead, they need to create different inverse systems for every “era” (however you want to define that). The inverse can be based on average point totals per position or average chart run. After that, create a general distribution based on those inverses (make sure that distribution has the same curve for every era). Look for the songs which stand out as outliers. Base the all time list on whichever songs have the highest outlier value for a given era. I agree. This is part of the problem: March 24, 2012 - December 28, 2013: x0.9 January 4, 2014 - November 26, 2016: x0.85 December 3, 2016 - August 4, 2018: x0.8 August 11, 2018 - September 28, 2019: x0.85 October 5, 2019 - February 29, 2020: x0.8 Either the multiple for the 2014-2018 period is too low or the multiple for the 2019-present is too high. No way should this weak era of 2019-present be getting the same multiplier as the era that produced Shape of You, Despacito, Rockstar, Perfect, and God's Plan. Circles should not be higher than Uptown Funk on the all-time list either. Uptown Funk was a clear outlier in a very strong 2015 era, dominating all metrics like no other song (not even Blinding Lights). Circles, while a big hit, was overshadowed by Old Town Funk before it and Blinding Lights after it. To fix this, I would make the multiplier for the January 4, 2014 - August 4, 2018 period either 0.9 or 0.95, maybe even lower the current era to a 0.75 multiplier. If they do nothing about the multiplier, Mood might probably end up higher than Uptown Funk too.
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Post by plankton5165 on Mar 24, 2021 10:00:38 GMT -5
Oh and for fixing the inverse system to be more accurate, there is a solution if Billboard is willing to put in the effort. Stop using the same inverse for every year and slapping a simple multiplier on it. Instead, they need to create different inverse systems for every “era” (however you want to define that). The inverse can be based on average point totals per position or average chart run. After that, create a general distribution based on those inverses (make sure that distribution has the same curve for every era). Look for the songs which stand out as outliers. Base the all time list on whichever songs have the highest outlier value for a given era. I agree. This is part of the problem: March 24, 2012 - December 28, 2013: x0.9 January 4, 2014 - November 26, 2016: x0.85 December 3, 2016 - August 4, 2018: x0.8 August 11, 2018 - September 28, 2019: x0.85 October 5, 2019 - February 29, 2020: x0.8 Either the multiple for the 2014-2018 period is too low or the multiple for the 2019-present is too high. No way should this weak era of 2019-present be getting the same multiplier as the era that produced Shape of You, Despacito, Rockstar, Perfect, and God's Plan. Circles should not be higher than Uptown Funk on the all-time list either. Uptown Funk was a clear outlier in a very strong 2015 era, dominating all metrics like no other song (not even Blinding Lights). Circles, while a big hit, was overshadowed by Old Town Funk before it and Blinding Lights after it. To fix this, I would make the multiplier for the January 4, 2014 - August 4, 2018 period either 0.9 or 0.95, maybe even lower the current era to a 0.75 multiplier. If they do nothing about the multiplier, Mood might probably end up higher than Uptown Funk too. I’ve been thinking they should go with 0.9 in 2021.
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Post by plankton5165 on Mar 24, 2021 10:01:42 GMT -5
How is the multiplier in 1976 x2.0 and the multiplier in 1977 is x1.6?!
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 24, 2021 12:41:35 GMT -5
All of that is why I created the “top songs of the streaming era” chart operating on real points. Uptown Funk was a gigantic hit, with Shape of You and Old Town Road being the only two songs to even come close to it. Circles was also massive and made the top 10, but it clearly wasn’t bigger than UF or even Closer. Blinding Lights is currently between Closer and Despacito, which again, feels a lot more accurate than Billboard’s inverse formula
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azul120
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Post by azul120 on Mar 24, 2021 19:16:19 GMT -5
Also, '92 and '93 are among the weakest Soundscan era years and deserve higher multipliers (as do the rest of the physical release single only years through '98, frankly). I'd propose at least 1.2x for Dec. '91 - Mar. '94 (IIRC where airplay was monitored by SoundScan) and 1.1x for Apr. '94 - Nov. '98.
And say what you will about the current era, but Blinding Lights is still in a class of its own. Uptown Funk may have had an advantage over Circles, etc., but Lights has had approximately 75% more time in the top 5 and top 10.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 25, 2021 12:23:03 GMT -5
Also, '92 and '93 are among the weakest Soundscan era years and deserve higher multipliers (as do the rest of the physical release single only years through '98, frankly). I'd propose at least 1.2x for Dec. '91 - Mar. '94 (IIRC where airplay was monitored by SoundScan) and 1.1x for Apr. '94 - Nov. '98. And say what you will about the current era, but Blinding Lights is still in a class of its own. Uptown Funk may have had an advantage over Circles, etc., but Lights has had approximately 75% more time in the top 5 and top 10. In terms of chart run, yes 100%. In terms of the actual weekly points it’s earning (aka the amount of people actually listening to it), it and every other song charting right now is way weaker than Uptown Funk. And it’s worth remembering that UF spent 14 weeks at #1 and was the first song to spend over 30 weeks in the top 10. BL only spent 4 nonconsecutive weeks at #1, and has lingered around for a year in a severely weakened top 10. Btw, this isn’t meant to be a slight on BL, which was my pfp for most of last year. Just trying to rag on Billboard’s formula, as one does
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Mar 26, 2021 5:45:09 GMT -5
It looks like Uptown Funk will keep its spot in the Top 5 all-time over Circles, after all:
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Lost In Musical Reverie
2x Platinum Member
"Everything seems nice, but if you look twice, you can see it's all lies"
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 2,297
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Post by Lost In Musical Reverie on Mar 26, 2021 8:26:19 GMT -5
It looks like Uptown Funk will keep its spot in the Top 5 all-time over Circles, after all: Yeah, that makes more sense. Even if I prefer "Circles", "Uptown Funk!" was bloody inescapable at its peak, and it earned its spot as the biggest song of the 2010s.
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azul120
New Member
Joined: December 2012
Posts: 56
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Post by azul120 on Mar 26, 2021 19:22:09 GMT -5
Why don't they just course correct and increase the multiplier for that one period that had no apparent reason to be a valley?
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mikerivera
Platinum Member
Joined: November 2018
Posts: 1,659
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Post by mikerivera on Mar 27, 2021 12:19:00 GMT -5
Okay but here’s the thing about them decreasing the multiplier for the covid era. Yes, songs like Circles and Blinding Lights had unusually long-lasting chart runs that they probably wouldn’t have had otherwise. But isn’t the whole point of doing an inverse system to judge it based on its chart run, regardless of points earned? Because if so, then why wouldn’t those two songs deserve to be placed super high? And it’s not like there haven’t been dozens of songs in this era that debut high and then have no staying power; that’s gotta count for something.
And yes, UF was definitely bigger than both songs. But it was Billboard’s decision to make it based on chart run instead of real points. Don’t use that to justify your bad decisions now
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jodakyellow
Platinum Member
Joined: July 2018
Posts: 1,501
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Post by jodakyellow on Mar 27, 2021 17:09:01 GMT -5
Okay but here’s the thing about them decreasing the multiplier for the covid era. Yes, songs like Circles and Blinding Lights had unusually long-lasting chart runs that they probably wouldn’t have had otherwise. But isn’t the whole point of doing an inverse system to judge it based on its chart run, regardless of points earned? Because if so, then why wouldn’t those two songs deserve to be placed super high? And it’s not like there haven’t been dozens of songs in this era that debut high and then have no staying power; that’s gotta count for something. And yes, UF was definitely bigger than both songs. But it was Billboard’s decision to make it based on chart run instead of real points. Don’t use that to justify your bad decisions now This is a fair point. Other songs exist; it’s not Blinding Lights’ fault that none of them have shelf lives
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