2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[lights]

^ Too early to say for sure but I highly doubt it. Streams are falling away fairly quickly and there's no sign of radio gains.

[tanooki]

Week 11 - 02/01

LW TW SONG POINTS
1 1 Circles 3,256
2 2 Someone You Loved 2,732
3 3 Memories 2,682
4 4 Roxanne 2,503
5 5 Good As Hell 2,472
7 6 10,000 Hours 2,308
6 7 Lose You to Love Me 2,285
8 8 Dance Monkey 2,257
15 9 The Box 2,181
10 10 Senorita 1,967
13 11 BOP 1,941
12 12 Ballin' 1,936
11 13 No Guidance 1,936
14 14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1,902
9 15 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1,852
16 16 Panini 1,778
17 17 Truth Hurts 1,759
19 18 Trampoline 1,730
18 19 bad guy 1,706
--LOCKED CUTOFF: 1700 POINTS--
22 20 Woah 1,593
21 21 Hot 1,587
20 22 Bandit 1,579
23 23 everything I wanted 1,578
24 24 Heartless 1,518
26 25 Don't Start Now 1,490
25 26 One Man Band 1,446
28 27 Even Though I'm Leaving 1,415
31 28 Only Human 1,367
27 29 Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 1,309
29 30 Lover 1,289
33 31 hot girl bummer 1,288
30 32 Old Town Road 1,256
34 33 The Bones 1,247
32 34 On Chill 1,202
35 35 Graveyard 1,185
39 36 Falling 1,150
42 37 Juicy 1,087
36 38 Ran$om 1,076
37 39 A Holly Jolly Christmas 1,051
38 40 Playing Games 1,037
45 41 I Don't Care 1,024
40 42 Heat 1,019
41 43 Jingle Bell Rock 994
46 44 VIBEZ 986
47 45 Heart on Ice 966
56 46 Blinding Lights 964
49 47 Ridin Roads 948
52 48 Heartache Medication 944
43 49 What If I Never Get Over You 934
57 50 Adore You 933
44 51 Beautiful People 924
55 52 Kinfolks 921
48 53 Take What You Want 921
60 54 Suicidal 894
50 55 It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 850
51 56 Remember You Young 847
53 57 Talk 835
54 58 Camelot 829
62 59 Futsal Shuffle 2020 812
58 60 Leave Em Alone 796
73 61 Yummy 788
59 62 Last Christmas 764
61 63 223's 758
66 64 Sucker 741
65 65 No Idea 718
63 66 Into the Unknown 712
70 67 Homesick 689
102 68 Life Is Good 689
64 69 Nice to Meet Ya 687
77 70 My Oh My 683
67 71 Easy 671
79 72 Start Wit Me 639
68 73 Enemies 616
81 74 RITMO 616
69 75 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 612
71 76 Vete 602
72 77 Feliz Navidad 597
74 78 Baby 583
75 79 The Christmas Song 579
76 80 Watermelon Sugar 573
78 81 Suge 564
94 82 Tusa 550
87 83 We Back 543
80 84 Hate Me 538
82 85 Slow Dancing in the Dark 523
83 86 Death 518
84 87 Sleigh Ride 516
85 88 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 512
103 89 High Fashion 510
86 90 Baby Sitter 501
88 91 Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 484
89 92 Jerry Sprunger 482
90 93 How Do You Sleep? 478
91 94 Prayed For You 473
92 95 Yellow Hearts 471
93 96 Tip Toe 469
96 97 Best on Earth 464
98 98 Make No Sense 442
95 99 Time 412
109 100 South of the Border 405
97 101 Lucid Dreams 392
99 102 Goodbyes 386
111 103 Slide 384
100 104 Like It's Christmas 374
101 105 We Were 372
110 106 OUT WEST 370
108 107 homecoming queen? 369
104 108 Follow God 350
105 109 Candy 347
114 110 TOES 347
NE 116 Godzilla 300
NE 141 What a Man Gotta Do 175

[golfradio]

Kind of embarrassing for Justin that the one-off country duet he did is going to place significantly higher on the Year-End list than the actual lead single from his album

[spoons]

I really want Bandit to make the year end, it really should have made it last year but billboard has dumb year end rules. It'll be proper for Juicewrld to score one more year end hit.

[Deleted]

Jan 28, 2020 6:47:04 GMT -5 spoons said:

I really want Bandit to make the year end, it really should have made it last year but billboard has dumb year end rules. It'll be proper for Juicewrld to score one more year end hit.

Bandit should be able to make the 2020 year end list. At its current rate, it needs 4 weeks to lock, and that's how many weeks it has left.

[Deleted]

Here's week 11 of my 2020 year end predictions. Lover, On Chill, Playing Games, Heat & What If I Never Get Over You are caught between years.

Locked This Week: The Box, Ballin', Senorita & BOP

Will Lock Next Week: No Guidance & HIGHEST IN THE ROOM

Within Striking Distance Next Week: Bandit, Hot, Woah, Don't Start Now, Everything I Wanted & Heartless

Dropouts:

Lover 1341 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
On Chill 1258 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
Playing Games 1128 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
Heat 1102 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
What If I Never Get Over You 1017 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)

Into The Unknown 791 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
Nice To Meet Ya 698 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)

1 Circles 3210

2 Someone You Loved 2810
3 Memories 2707
4 Good As Hell 2558
5 Roxanne 2485
6 10,000 Hours 2365
7 Lose You To Love Me 2355
8 The Box 2322
9 Dance Monkey 2312
10 Ballin' 2021
11 Senorita 2000

12 BOP 2000

- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -

13 No Guidance 1965
14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1948
15 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912
16 Panini 1788
17 Bad Guy 1773
18 Truth Hurts 1771

19 Trampoline 1758

- - - - - STRIKING DISTANCE (1700 Points) - - - - -

20 Bandit 1615
21 Hot 1614
22 Woah 1606
23 Don't Start Now 1582
24 Everything I Wanted 1575

25 Heartless 1554

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

26 One Man Band 1484
27 Even Though I'm Leaving 1460
28 Only Human 1368
29 Hot Girl Bummer 1355
30 The Bones 1316
31 Graveyard 1289
32 Falling 1214
33 Juicy 1206
34 Heart On Ice 1052
35 I Don't Care 1021
36 Blinding Lights 1007
37 Take What You Want 995
38 Adore You 974
39 Suicidal 954
40 Sucker 871
41 Futsal Shuffle 2020 854
42 Life Is Good 820
43 No Idea 798
44 Yummy 770
45 My Oh My 755
46 Homesick 740
47 Tusa 566
48 High Fashion 486
49 South Of The Border 431
50 Good News 331
51 I Hope 324
52 Sum 2 Prove 307
53 Godzilla 285
54 You Should Be Sad 270
55 What A Man Gotta Do 170

[mako]

Week 11 (February 1, 2020)

Locked: The Box, Highest In The Room, Panini, Truth Hurts

Locked
Locked next week
Locked in 2 weeks
Recurrent/Not Charting

1. (=) Circles 3331
2. (=) Someone You Loved 2858
3. (=) Memories 2833
4. (=) Good As Hell 2621
5. (=) Roxanne 2533
6. (=) 10,000 Hours 2411
7. (=) Lose You To Love You 2388
8. (=) Dance Monkey 2352
9. (+6) The Box 2232
10. (-1) Senorita 2030
11. (=) Ballin' 2028
12. (+1) Bop 2019
13. (-1) No Guidance 1961
14. (=) Highest In The Room 1945
15. (-5) All I Want For Christmas Is You 1865
16. (=) Panini 1811
17. (=) Truth Hurts 1801
--  --  CUTOFF (1800)  -- --
18. (+1) Trampoline 1763
19. (-1) Bad Guy 1760
20. (+1) Hot 1645
21. (+1) Woah 1643
22. (-2) Bandit 1643
23. (=) Everything I Wanted 1629
24. (+1) Heartless 1559
25. (+2) Don't Start Now 1557
26. (=) One Man Band 1509
27. (+1) Even Though I'm Leaving 1468
28. (-4) Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1430
29. (+2) Only Human 1398
30. (+3) Hot Girl Bummer 1338
31. (-2) Lover 1338
32. (-2) Old Town Road 1301
33. (+2) The Bones 1283
34. (-2) On Chill 1259
35. (-1) Graveyard 1254
36. (+2) Falling 1219
37. (+5) Juicy 1146
38. (-2) Ran$om 1127
39. (-2) Jingle Bell Rock 1095
40. (-1) Playing Games 1087
41. (-1) A Holly Jolly Christmas 1076
42. (-1) Heat 1066
43. (+1) Vibez 1041
44. (+3) I Don't Care 1030
45. (+1) Heart On Ice 1020
46. (+10) Blinding Lights 998
47. (+2) Ridin' Roads 994
48. (+4) Heartache Medication 985
49. (+5) Adore You 983
50. (-2) Take What You Want 976
51. (-8) What If I Never Get Over You 964
52. (+3) Kinfolks 954
53. (+7) Suicidal 946
54. (-9) Beautiful People 932
55. (+39) Life Is Good 898
56. (-6) It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year 887
57. (-6) Remember You Young 881
58. (-5) Camelot 864
59. (-2) Last Christmas 843
60. (+3) Futsal Shuffle 2020 842
61. (-3) Talk 840
62. (+13) Yummy 838
63. (-4) Leave Em Alone 830
64. (-3) 223's 806
65. (+1) No Idea 795
66. (-4) Into The Unknown 773
67. (+1) Easy 748
68. (+4) Homesick 747
69. (+5) Sucker 738
70. (+6) My Oh My 732
71. (-7) Nice To Meet Ya 722
72. (-7) Let It Snow x3 707
73. (+4) Start Wit Me 697
74. (-7) Feliz Navidad 676
75. (+6) Ritmo (Bad Boys For Life) 670
76. (-7) The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You) 669
77. (-7) Vete 656
78. (-7) Enemies 652
79. (-6) Watermelon Sugar 631
80. (-2) Sleigh Ride 592
81. (+8) We Back 590
82. (+10) Tusa 588
83. (-4) Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer 587
84. (-4) Baby 583
85. (-3) Suge 559
86. (-3) Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season 559
87. (-3) Hate Me 558
88. (-3) Slow Dancing In The Dark 554
89. (-3) Death 553
90. (+7) Best On Earth 522
91. (-4) Baby Sitter 522
92. (-4) Tip Toe 514
93. (+12) High Fashion 510
94. (-4) Jerry Sprunger 509
95. (-1) Yellow Hearts 505
96. (+3) Make No Sense 485
97. (-4) How Do You Sleep? 479
98. (-3) Prayed For You 475
99. (+10) South Of The Border 437
100. (-4) Like It's Christmas 433
101. (+7) Slide 428
103. (+4) Homecoming Queen? 410
106. (+5) Out West 393
110. (+6) Toes 371
111. (NEW) Godzilla 366
114. (+27) Good News 336
124. (+32) You Should Be Sad 287
127. (+11) Sugar 264
143. (NEW) What A Man Gotta Do 183

[GPMB]

thank FUCK, bad guy didn’t drop out this week

[spicymapping]

lover missed the year end and you're all guilty for it. this is your fault. be ashamed. 

TL, DR:
Locked: Highest In The Room, The Box, Truth Hurts, Panini, Trampoline
Added: Falling, Juicy

1. Circles (=)
2. Someone You Loved (=)
3. Memories (=)
4. Good As Hell (=)
5. Roxanne (=)
6. Lose You To Love Me (=)
7. 10,000 Hours (=)
8. Dance Monkey (=)
9. Señorita (=)
10. No Guidance (=)
11. Ballin' (+1)
12. Bop (+1)
13. Highest In The Room (+1)
14. The Box (+5)
15. All I Want For Christmas Is You (-4)
16. Truth Hurts (-1)
17. Panini (-1)
18. Trampoline (=)

PREDICTED CUTOFF - 17K

19. Bad Guy (-2) WA: 1
20. Heartless (+4) WA: 1 
21. Woah (+1) WA: 2
22. Everything I Wanted (+1) WA: 1
23. Hot (-3) WA: 2
24. Bandit (-3) WA: 2
25. Don't Start Now (+1) WA: 2
26. One Man Band (-1) WA: 3
27. Even Though I'm Leaving (=) WA: 4
28. Only Human (+3) WA: 4
29. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree (-1)
30. Lover (-1)
31. Hot Girl Bummer (+2) WA: 4
32. Old Town Road (-2)
33. The Bones (+1) WA: 4
34. On Chill (-2)
35. Graveyard (=) WA: 7, WL: 1
36. Falling (NEW) WA: 6
37. Juicy (NEW) WA: 7
38. Ransom (-2)

TRACKING CUTOFF - 10K

[spicymapping]

Caught between years, edited to this week.

Also, for all songs already caught, parenthesis is their position if they were entirely in 2019

Already caught:

- Lover (63)
- On Chill (63)
- Playing Games (82)
- Heat (84)
- Time (92)
- Prayed For You (97)
- Camelot (97)
- 223's (97)
- I Don't Know About You (100)

Fate undecided: 

- Hot
- Bandit
- One Man Band
- Even Though I'm Leaving
- Take What You Want
- Graveyard
- Hot Girl Bummer
- The Bones


Not yet at threshold:

- Don't Start Now
- Vibez
- Heartache Medication
- Juicy
- Kinfolks
- Ridin' Roads
- Make No Sense
- Start Wit Me
- homecoming queen?
- South of the Border
- Toes
- What She Wants Tonight

Also, Hot's entire run would be in the top 50 of 2019. I will be livid if y'all let this miss.

[twelvevinylrecords]

Disgusted that Lover missed two year end lists. Curious if Taylor didn't bow out of the Grammy's and performed the song if it would have stayed, Oh well, at least bad guy will probably make it

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^It would probably still have dropped out, but re-entered next week.

[lurker2]

Jan 28, 2020 10:33:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

]Also, Hot's entire run would be in the top 50 of 2019. I will be livid if y'all let this miss.

Out of curiosity, what was the biggest song to get caught between years?

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^I don't know about the more current songs, but I do think Purple Rain would be among the biggest ones in the pre-Soundscan era.

[sirskimask]

Jan 28, 2020 15:20:20 GMT -5 lurker2 said:

Jan 28, 2020 10:33:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

]Also, Hot's entire run would be in the top 50 of 2019. I will be livid if y'all let this miss.

Out of curiosity, what was the biggest song to get caught between years?

The Greatest?

[cedric]

Jan 28, 2020 15:20:20 GMT -5 lurker2 said:

Jan 28, 2020 10:33:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

]Also, Hot's entire run would be in the top 50 of 2019. I will be livid if y'all let this miss.

Out of curiosity, what was the biggest song to get caught between years?

Probably Mr. Know It All?

[GPMB]

Hot better not drop out next week

[inverse]

Take What You Want is the most tragic caught between years story since Everywhere by Michelle Branch

[dremolus - solarpunk]

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List:

Locked
Circles
Someone You Loved
Senorita
No Guidance

Very Likely
bad guy
Trampoline

Likely
Truth Hurts
Panini

Possible
Only Human

Unlikely
N/A

Very Unlikely
I Don't Care
Sucker

OUT: Talk (will not repeat)

[dremolus - solarpunk]

It honestly feels wild YNW Melly has three hit songs, all of which got huge while he was behind bars. I know there have been rappers who've stayed successful despite being in jail but are there any other rappers who've been successful while in jail?

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Jan 28, 2020 6:49:01 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jan 28, 2020 6:47:04 GMT -5 spoons said:

I really want Bandit to make the year end, it really should have made it last year but billboard has dumb year end rules. It'll be proper for Juicewrld to score one more year end hit.

Bandit should be able to make the 2020 year end list. At its current rate, it needs 4 weeks to lock, and that's how many weeks it has left.

Although, bottom 10 placement in the YE for "Bandit" would be certain.

[Deleted]

Jan 29, 2020 6:09:53 GMT -5 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 said:

Jan 28, 2020 6:49:01 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Bandit should be able to make the 2020 year end list. At its current rate, it needs 4 weeks to lock, and that's how many weeks it has left.

Although, bottom 10 placement in the YE for "Bandit" would be certain.

I think it will be able to get into the 80s range since locked in my eyes is having an 100% chance of making the year end list despite error in predictions and strength of charts.

[brandon]

Is anyone applying .9 or .95 to their charts at all, from the chart starting January 18? I will continue to use .85 for now, but I will think about making alternate charts for if what fhas is saying is true.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Gonna call it right now: the next number one song - and possibly the number one song of the year - will be a tribute to Kobe. Tribute songs tend to do big numbers (Candle in the Wind, I'll Be Missing You, See You Again) and when that someone is as influential as Kobe Bryant, the tribute is going to be huge - I'm predicting debut at number one and spend 12 weeks.

[twelvevinylrecords]

Jan 29, 2020 7:00:10 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Gonna call it right now: the next number one song - and possibly the number one song of the year - will be a tribute to Kobe. Tribute songs tend to do big numbers (Candle in the Wind, I'll Be Missing You, See You Again) and when that someone is as influential as Kobe Bryant, the tribute is going to be huge - I'm predicting debut at number one and spend 12 weeks.

That is an interesting prediction. Hmm. There are already rap songs about Kobe, I wonder if there was one made who it would be by? Would it be a slower song, or would it be like See You again and combine styles? Yeah, This prediction gets the official TwelveVinylRecords approval.

[lifeofaguardian]

This is week 11, so here are the playlists. Let's start with the current state of affairs - as always, 175.000 points to be locked and 100.000 points to make it onto the playlist itself.



New songs:
Trevor Daniel - Falling
Doja Cat & Tyga - Juicy

Drop-outs:
None

Locked songs:
Mustard ft. Roddy Ricch - Ballin'
DaBaby - BOP
Travis Scott - Highest In The Room

Lowest locked song:
Travis Scott - Highest In The Room


And now for the predictions - these are the songs that would pass the 175.000 point mark if they either get to 20 weeks or remain for 10 more weeks (depending on multiple factors)



New songs:
Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla
Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion
Jonas Brothers - What A Man Gotta Do

Drop-outs:
Taylor Swift - Lover
Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill
Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove
Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You
Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication

[waluigionascooter]

Jan 28, 2020 15:20:20 GMT -5 lurker2 said:

Jan 28, 2020 10:33:02 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

]Also, Hot's entire run would be in the top 50 of 2019. I will be livid if y'all let this miss.

Out of curiosity, what was the biggest song to get caught between years?

Misery Business is probably up there

[inverse]

Jan 29, 2020 1:56:49 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Potential Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List:

Locked
Circles
Someone You Loved
Senorita
No Guidance

Very Likely
bad guy

Likely
Truth Hurts
Panini

Possible
Only Human

Unlikely
N/A

Very Unlikely
I Don't Care
Sucker

OUT: Talk (will not repeat)

Trampoline?

[sirskimask]

Jan 29, 2020 20:37:47 GMT -5 inverse said:

Jan 29, 2020 1:56:49 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Potential Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List:

Locked
Circles
Someone You Loved
Senorita
No Guidance

Very Likely
bad guy

Likely
Truth Hurts
Panini

Possible
Only Human

Unlikely
N/A

Very Unlikely
I Don't Care
Sucker

OUT: Talk (will not repeat)

Trampoline?

Yep, I had a feeling something was missing, thanks