2020 Billboard Hot 100 Year-End Predictions (Year 8)

[twelvevinylrecords]

Jan 22, 2020 10:51:31 GMT -5 tuna said:

quick predictions:

The Box finishes in the top 10 of the year, but not #1

Blinding Lights in the top 20 of the year, also not #1 anywhere except music critics' lists

Juicy barely makes the y/e

Don't Start Now YE top 10

[reputainbow]

JANUARY UPDATE

SPOILER: Click to show

{Top 100}KEY: 1100+: Locked | 1000+: Very Likely/Near Locked | 900+: Likely | 800+: Possibly | 700+: In Consideration

1 Circles (Post Malone) 1950
2 Someone You Loved (Lewis Capaldi) 1610
3 Memories (Maroon 5) 1490
4 Good as Hell (Lizzo) 1340
5 ROXANNE (Arizona Zervas) 1253
6 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Mariah Carey) 1135
7 Lose You to Love Me (Selena Gomez) 1130
8 10,000 Hours (Dan + Shay/Justin Bieber) 1079
9 Senorita (Shawn Mendes/Camila Cabello) 1016
10 Dance Monkey (Tones and I) 1005
11 No Guidance (Chris Brown/Drake) 939
12 The Box (Roddy Ricch) 895
13 Truth Hurts (Lizzo) 874
14 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM (Travis Scott) 850
15 Ballin' (Mustard/Roddy Ricch) 846
16 Panini (Lil Nas X) 829
17 BOP (DaBaby) 817
18 Bad Guy (Billie Eilish) 789
19 Heartless (The Weeknd) 788
20 Trampoline (SHAED) 786
21 Hot (Young Thug/Gunna) 753
22 Bandit (Juice WRLD/YoungBoy NeverBrokeAgain) 747
23 Woah (Lil Baby) 743
24 everything i wanted (Billie Eilish) 735
25 Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree (Brenda Lee) 722
26 One Man Band (Old Dominion) 688
27 Don't Start Now (Dua Lipa) 658
28 Even Though I'm Leaving (Luke Combs) 656
29 Lover (Taylor Swift) 653
30 Only Human (Jonas Brothers) 636
31 Old Town Road (Lil Nas X/Billy Ray Cyrus) 635
32 On Chill (Wale/Jeremih) 616
33 Hot Girl Bummer (Blackbear) 583
34 Graveyard (Halsey) 551
35 Ran$om (Lil Tecca) 550
36 The Bones (Maren Morris) 544
37 A Holly Jolly Christmas (Burl Ives) 536
38 Falling (Trevor Daniel) 516
39 Playing Games (Summer Walker) 515
40 Jingle Bell Rock (Bobby Helms) 498
41 Heat (Chris Brown/Gunna) 496
42 Juicy (Doja Cat/Tyga) 490
43 I Don't Care (Ed Sheeran/Justin Bieber) 470
44 Beautiful People (Ed Sheeran/Khalid) 469
45 What If I Never Get Over You (Lady Antebellum) 434
46 Talk (Khalid) 431
47 It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year (Andy Williams) 426
48 VIBEZ (DaBaby) 415
49 Adore You (Harry Styles) 409
50 Heart On Ice (Rod Wave) 398
51 Futsal Shuffle 2020 (Lil Uzi Vert) 389
52 Blinding Lights (The Weeknd) 379
53 Last Christmas (Wham!) 378
54 Take What You Want (Post Malone/Ozzy Osbourne/Travis Scott) 375
55 Ridin' Roads (Dustin Lynch) 366
56 Remember You Young (Thomas Rhett) 357
57 Heartache Medication (Jon Pardi) 353
58 Suicidal (YNW Melly) 349
59 Camelot (NLE Choppa) 337
60 Kinfolks (Sam Hunt) 333
61 Sucker (Jonas Brothers) 330
62 Into the Unknown (Idina Menzel/AURORA) 318
63 Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow (Dean Martin) 309
64 Leave Em Alone (Layton Greene/Lil Baby/City Girls/PnB Rock) 306
65 Baby (Lil Baby/DaBaby) 300
66 Feliz Navidad (Jose Feliciano) 296
67 No Idea (Don Toliver) 293
68 The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) (Nat King Cole) 293
69 Suge (DaBaby) 291
70 Yummy (Justin Bieber) 280
71 Sleigh Ride (The Ronettes) 266
72 Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (Gene Autry) 264
73 My Oh My (Camila Cabello/DaBaby) 263
74 223's (YNW Melly/9Lokknine) 263
75 Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season (Andy Williams) 250
76 How Do You Sleep? (Sam Smith) 244
77 Start Wit Me (Roddy Ricch/Gunna) 220
78 Time (NF) 206
79 Lucid Dreams (Juice WRLD) 199
80 Goodbyes (Post Malone/Young Thug) 199
81 Nice to Meet Ya (Niall Horan) 196
82 Vete (Bad Bunny) 195
83 Hate Me (Ellie Goulding/Juice WRLD) 194
84 Watermelon Sugar (Harry Styles) 181
85 Life Is Good (Future/Drake) 180
86 Prayed For You (Matt Stell) 178
87 Here Comes Santa Claus (Down Santa Claus Lane) (Gene Autry) 176
88 Death (Trippie Redd/DaBaby) 175
89 Enemies (Post Malone/DaBaby) 174
90 Like It's Christmas (Jonas Brothers) 174
91 High Fashion (Roddy Ricch/Mustard) 171
92 One Thing Right (Marshmello/Kane Brown) 166
93 Homesick (Kane Brown) 165
94 Baby Sitter (DaBaby/Offset) 157
95 Out West (JACKBOYS/Young Thug) 148
96 We Back (Jason Aldean) 144
97 Follow God (Kanye West) 144
98 We Were (Keith Urban) 142
99 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) (The Black Eyed Peas/J Balvin) 138
100 Jerry Sprunger (Torey Lanez/T-Pain) 134

[GPMB]

I honestly feel like Juicy has had a strong enough chart run so far that it will comfortably make the YE, even if it’s in the lower ranges of the chart

which is not something I would be saying if this was happening in any year 2018 or prior

[spoons]

Early predict
Circles locked top 5
Memories locked top 15
The Box locked top 5
Good As Hell locked top 20
No Guidance locked top 50
Lose You To Love Me locked top 20
Dance Monkey locked top 10

[GPMB]

anyway i hope that Hot can pull a Beautiful rather than a Blame

[sirskimask]

Potential Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List

Locked:
Circles
Someone You Loved
Senorita

Very Likely
No Guidance

Likely
Trampoline
Panini
Truth Hurts

Possible
Only Human
bad guy

Unlikely
I Don't Care

Very Unlikely
Sucker
Talk

OUT: Old Town Road (will not repeat), Beautiful People (will not repeat), Suge (will not repeat)



The herd is thinning out fast as most of the leftovers are dropping like flies. Sucker, Talk, and I Don't care will all be gone soon, bad guy and Only Human aren't too far behind either 

[lifeofaguardian]

Alright, here are the current playlists - as always, current cutoff is 175.000 points to be locked, 100.000 points to be put on the weekly playlist.




New songs:
blackbear - Hot Girl Bummer
Maren Morris - The Bones
Halsey - Graveyard

Drop-outs:
Lil Tecca - Ran$om

Locked songs:
Tones And I - Dance Monkey
Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Senorita
Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance

Lowest locked song:
Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance


And now for the predictions - these are the songs that would make the year-end list if they either get to 20 weeks or remain for 10 more weeks (depending on multiple factors)




New songs:
Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good
Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove
Mac Miller - Good News
Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication

Drop-outs:
Idina Menzel & AURORA - Into The Unknown
Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road
Halsey - Graveyard
Summer Walker - Playing Games
Ed Sheeran ft. Khalid - Beautiful People

[Deleted]

Here's week 10 of my 2020 year end predictions. Since there is an album bomb next week, I have put the songs that could get kicked out in bold.

Locked This Week: Lose You To Love Me, 10,000 Hours & Dance Monkey

Will Lock Next Week: Senorita, Ballin', The Box & BOP

Within Striking Distance Next Week: Panini, Truth Hurts, Trampoline & Bad Guy (Album bomb could kill this song's chances next week).

Dropouts:
Beautiful People 935 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
Old Town Road 1279 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)

1 Circles 2930
2 Someone You Loved 2580
3 Memories 2457
4 Good As Hell 2362
5 Roxanne 2265
6 Lose You To Love Me 2150
7 10,000 Hours 2125

8 Dance Monkey 2077

- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -

9 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912
10 Senorita 1868
11 Ballin' 1833
12 No Guidance 1825
13 The Box 1822
14 BOP 1808

15 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 1783

- - - - - STRIKING DISTANCE (1700 Points) - - - - -

16 Panini 1663
17 Bad Guy 1650 (Might go recurrent).
18 Truth Hurts 1650
19 Trampoline 1616

20 Bandit 1500

- - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -

21 Hot 1492
22 Woah 1472
23 Everything I Wanted 1431
24 Heartless 1399
25 Don't Start Now 1398
26 One Man Band 1367 (Might go recurrent).
27 Even Though I'm Leaving 1342 (Might go recurrent).
28 Lover 1341 (Almost certain to go recurrent).
29 On Chill 1258 (Likely to go recurrent).
30 Only Human 1241
31 Hot Girl Bummer 1219
32 Graveyard 1181
33 The Bones 1170
34 Playing Games 1128 (Almost certain to go recurrent).
35 Heat 1102 (Almost certain to go recurrent).
36 Juicy 1094
37 Falling 1088
38 What If I Never Get Over You 1017 (Almost certain to go recurrent).
39 Heart On Ice 962
40 Take What You Want 925
41 I Don't Care 901 (Might go recurrent).
42 Blinding Lights 859
43 Adore You 844
44 Suicidal 826
45 Into The Unknown 791 (Might return the week after).
46 Sucker 757 (Likely to go recurrent).
47 Futsal Shuffle 2020 754
48 No Idea 714
49 Nice To Meet Ya 698 (Might return the week after).
50 Homesick 646
51 My Oh My 631
52 Yummy 570
53 Life Is Good 470
54 High Fashion 336
55 South Of The Border 331

[Deleted]

Jan 22, 2020 16:20:50 GMT -5 GPMB said:

I honestly feel like Juicy has had a strong enough chart run so far that it will comfortably make the YE, even if it’s in the lower ranges of the chart

which is not something I would be saying if this was happening in any year 2018 or prior

Same, I honestly find songs that peak in the 40s-50s that make the year end list way more interesting as they used to be very rare until now.

I also have my eye on Heart On Ice (peak 54) since I think it could pull a Close Friends or Worth It and just barely make the 2020 year end list.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Some of those songs are getting good longevity and have been pretty steady throughout their chart run. That is now generally trumping a high peak, but relatively short chart run, most not close to its peak.

[dremolus - solarpunk]

Jan 23, 2020 5:28:36 GMT -5 @delphox said:

Jan 22, 2020 16:20:50 GMT -5 GPMB said:

I honestly feel like Juicy has had a strong enough chart run so far that it will comfortably make the YE, even if it’s in the lower ranges of the chart

which is not something I would be saying if this was happening in any year 2018 or prior

Same, I honestly find songs that peak in the 40s-50s that make the year end list way more interesting as they used to be very rare until now.

I also have my eye on Heart On Ice (peak 54) since I think it could pull a Close Friends or Worth It and just barely make the 2020 year end list.

I'd also keep on eye on Make No Sense, Tusa, RITMO, Start wit Me and I can even see Take What You Want getting a few more weeks after hitting 20.

[Deleted]

I seriously hope "No Guidance" will be Chris Brown's last visit to the Year-End...

The fact he managed to be more relevant than Usher and Ne-Yo throughout the 2010s baffles me on both an artistic and moral level. He is living proof that 'cancel culture' is nothing more than a worthless hashtag that has no effect on artists' careers (unless you're the Dixie Chicks or Janet Jackson, of course...)

[inverse]

Dec 19, 2019 13:42:34 GMT -5 inverse said:

I have this conspiracy theory that the reason Billboard did such a stupid year end tracking period for 2019 is because they wanted to put All I Want For Christmas Is You on a year end list so this is gonna be a 54 week year to ensure that it'll be there

I have this conspiracy theory that the reason Billboard created a formula change at a stupid point in the middle of the year immediately after All I Want For Christmas Is You fell off the charts is because they wanted to put it on a year end list and so they gave it boosted point totals to ensure it'll be there.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^Personally, I thought it happened to prevent another Old Time Road and to temper the influence of YouTube.

[atg]

Jan 23, 2020 14:06:13 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

I seriously hope "No Guidance" will be Chris Brown's last visit to the Year-End...

The fact he managed to be more relevant than Usher and Ne-Yo throughout the 2010s baffles me on both an artistic and moral level. He is living proof that 'cancel culture' is nothing more than a worthless hashtag that has no effect on artists' careers (unless you're the Dixie Chicks or Janet Jackson, of course...)

Drake is the reason why no guidance has a lotta longevity but he also had another minor hit with gunna called heat. i think its at its last week on the chart and idk how to explain that song having success

[gregtwinner]

Jan 23, 2020 20:57:28 GMT -5 atg said:

Jan 23, 2020 14:06:13 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

I seriously hope "No Guidance" will be Chris Brown's last visit to the Year-End...

The fact he managed to be more relevant than Usher and Ne-Yo throughout the 2010s baffles me on both an artistic and moral level. He is living proof that 'cancel culture' is nothing more than a worthless hashtag that has no effect on artists' careers (unless you're the Dixie Chicks or Janet Jackson, of course...)

Drake is the reason why no guidance has a lotta longevity but he also had another minor hit with gunna called heat. i think its at its last week on the chart and idk how to explain that song having success

I don't want him around either but he's really good at adapting to trends so his songs sound like newer artists, and he's only 30 so he's not considered a "has-been" yet

[GPMB]

if Bad Guy doesn’t repeat I will be really mad

all it needs is two (or one if the cutoff ends up being SUPER low) more weeks before it can get there, but considering next week will be an album bomb week and it’s currently at #40, I have serious doubts about it being able to do so

[sirskimask]

Jan 23, 2020 23:54:27 GMT -5 GPMB said:

if Bad Guy doesn’t repeat I will be really mad

all it needs is two (or one if the cutoff ends up being SUPER low) more weeks before it can get there, but considering next week will be an album bomb week and it’s currently at #40, I have serious doubts about it being able to do so

Grammys will keep it safe should it survive the album bombs

[mako]

Currently working on predictions for this chart year. I honestly forgot how fun doing this was, that is, until I accidentally deleted the whole file so FML

[GPMB]

Jan 24, 2020 1:10:33 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Jan 23, 2020 23:54:27 GMT -5 GPMB said:

if Bad Guy doesn’t repeat I will be really mad

all it needs is two (or one if the cutoff ends up being SUPER low) more weeks before it can get there, but considering next week will be an album bomb week and it’s currently at #40, I have serious doubts about it being able to do so

Grammys will keep it safe should it survive the album bombs

Yeah but the album bombs are what I’m worried about

but maybe disregard what I’m saying because I just calculated the amount of points it’s gotten over the chart year so far with the inverse point system I used for my year end predictions last year, and I got 157k. my #100 last year (which, embarrassingly, was Never Really Over) got around 155k points, so I guess there may be a chance that even if bad guy drops out next week there will be a very minuscule chance that it could scrape onto the very bottom of 2020 YE

[Deleted]

Jan 24, 2020 11:28:16 GMT -5 GPMB said:

Jan 24, 2020 1:10:33 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Grammys will keep it safe should it survive the album bombs

Yeah but the album bombs are what I’m worried about

but maybe disregard what I’m saying because I just calculated the amount of points it’s gotten over the chart year so far with the inverse point system I used for my year end predictions last year, and I got 157k. my #100 last year (which, embarrassingly, was Never Really Over) got around 155k points, so I guess there may be a chance that even if bad guy drops out next week there will be a very minuscule chance that it could scrape onto the very bottom of 2020 YE

That's why I dislike the December-November Year-End format, because songs that were smashes from the previous year that only charted for a month or two during the actual calendar year could scrape onto the Year-End list (also because Even Though I'm Leaving wouldn't have been caught between years in a January-December format).

[korbel16]

Does anyone know what week the first tracking week for the 2020’s decade end is?

[GPMB]

also Camelot is going to be caught between years and that makes me really sad, it's nearly as good as Shotta Flow and it deserves a year end spot

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Jan 24, 2020 17:59:28 GMT -5 korbel16 said:

Does anyone know what week the first tracking week for the 2020’s decade end is?

That would be the October 5th, 2019 dated chart, which generally was the September 20 to 26, 2019 tracking week for sales and streaming. Add to those dates three days to get the radio tracking week.

[mako]

Good news, I recovered the file and finally completed it.

Week 10 (January 25, 2020)

Locked
Locked next week
Locked in 2 weeks
Recurrent / Not Charting

(=) 1. Circles 3021
(=) 2. Someone You Loved 2619
(=) 3. Memories 2578
(=) 4. Good As Hell 2408
(=) 5. Roxanne 2299
(=) 6. 10,000 Hours 2161
(=) 7. Lose You To Love Me 2160
(+1) 8. Dance Monkey 2108
(+1) 9. Senorita 1889
(-2) 10. All I Want For Christmas Is You 1865
(+1) 11. Ballin' 1830
(-1) 12. No Guidance 1814
(+1) 13. Bop 1813
-- --  CUTOFF (180,000) -- -- 
(-1) 14. Highest In The Room 1769
(+14) 15. The Box 1755
(=) 16. Panini 1684
(-2) 17. Truth Hurts 1680
(-1) 18. Bad Guy 1636
(-1) 19. Trampoline 1614
(=) 20. Bandit 1525
(=) 21. Hot 1522
(=) 22. Woah 1501
(=) 23. Everything I Wanted 1478
(-5) 24. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1430
(+2) 25. Heartless 1397
(-1) 26. One Man Band 1392
(+3) 27. Don't Start Now 1366
(=) 28. Even Though I'm Leaving 1350
(-3) 29. Lover 1338
(-6) 30. Old Town Road 1301
(+1) 31. Only Human 1265
(-1) 32. On Chill 1259
(+4) 33. Hot Girl Bummer 1193
(+2) 34. Graveyard 1146
(+4) 35. The Bones 1130
(-3) 36. Ran$om 1127
(-3) 37. Jingle Bell Rock 1095
(+3) 38. Falling 1089
(-1) 39. Playing Games 1087
(-5) 40. A Holly Jolly Christmas 1076
(-1) 41. Heat 1066
(+1) 42. Juicy 1035
(+2) 43. What If I Never Get Over You 964
(+2) 44. Vibez 944
(-3) 45. Beautiful People 932
(+2) 46. Heart On Ice 925
(+5) 47. I Don't Care 910
(+1) 48. Take What You Want 897
(+2) 49. Ridin' Roads 890
(-6) 50. It's The Longest Title Ever 887
(-1) 51. Remember You Young 881
(+2) 52. Heartache Medication 874
(=) 53. Camelot 864
(+8) 54. Adore You 845
(+1) 55. Kinfolks 845
(+3) 56. Blinding Lights 844
(-10) 57. Last Christmas 843
(=) 58. Talk 840
(-4) 59. Leave Em Alone 830
(+3) 60. Suicidal 812
(-4) 61. 223's 806
(-1) 62. Into The Unknown 773
(+5) 63. Futsal Shuffle 2020 737
(+2) 64. Nice To Meet Ya 722
(-5) 65. Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 707
(+3) 66. No Idea 703
(-3) 67. Feliz Navidad 676
(+2) 68. Easy 673
(-4) 69. The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas To You) 669
(+3) 70. Vete 656
(-4) 71. Enemies 652
(+7) 72. Homesick 648
(+2) 73. Watermelon Sugar 631
(+10) 74. Sucker 626
(+26) 75. Yummy 617
(+10) 76. My Oh My 606
(+6) 77. Start Wit Me 603
(-7) 78. Sleigh Ride 592
(-7) 79. Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer 587
(-6) 80. Baby 583
(+6) 81. Ritmo (Bad Boys For Life) 568
(-6) 82. Suge 559
(-6) 83. Happy Holiday / The Holiday Season 559
(-6) 84. Hate Me 558
(-5) 85. Slow Dancing In The Dark 554
(-5) 86. Death 553
(-5) 87. Baby Sitter 522
(+2) 88. Tip Toe 514
(+4) 89. We Back 511
(+1) 90. Jerry Sprunger 509
(-6) 91. Yellow Hearts 505
(+5) 92. Tusa 480
(-5) 93. How Do You Sleep? 479
(NEW) 94. Life Is Good 476
(-6) 95. Prayed For You 475
(-4) 96. Like It's Christmas 433
(+6) 97. Best On Earth 432
(-4) 98. Time 412
(+5) 99. Make No Sense 409
(-5) 100. Here Comes Santa Claus 402
(+30) 138. Sugar 173
(NEW) 140. Sum 2 Prove 170
(NEW) 141. Good News 167
(NEW) 156. You Should Be Sad 141
(NEW) 158. Rare 139

[mako]

^ I know it looks a little wonky, but I promise I'll fix it when I post the 02/01 prediction since I have no more free time to do it now.

[rockgolf]

Blah, blah, blah. January 25th chart included. Yadda Yadda Yadda.

We're only in January and just one song climbed into the top 100. This is sad, people! Well, there should be significant chart turnover next week with a couple of big album surges from last Friday showing up. Probably including Eminem's highest charting song in years. It won't be enough to make the top 100 on this list, but should show up the week after.

We could have 3 straight weeks of a song debuting and #2 and plummeting the week after. It's possible all three could fail to make the top 100.

[brandon]

Week 10

10 weeks in, now! Let's cut straight to the chase!

Locked: None

Expected To Be Locked Next Week: The Box, Dance Monkey

SPOILER: Click to show

{Hot 100 Week 10 Bubbling Under/Predictions}

[fhas]

For you guys doing YE predictions: the UGC change resulted in a loss of points for most (maybe all) songs on the Hot 100.

They've downweighted YouTube, but they didn't adjust the formula for the other streaming services and chart components (radio/sales).

If you're using an inverse point system, applying a 0.95 or 0.9 multiplier for the charts dated January 18 onwards may be the best way to predict.

I think in a few weeks I'll have the exact percentage loss in points for the songs in the top 15/20, but for now 0.95 or 0.9 is what I'm thinking.

[earth]

Is it possible for good news to have enough longevity to make the YE?