Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 11:04:25 GMT -5
I wouldn't bet on "Toosie Slide" just yet, and it might be a bit too soon to tell for "Say So". Given that the latter is growing significantly on radio, though (and its streaming is still consistent), I imagine it can very well end up in the top 20 - at least.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 11:10:05 GMT -5
^Don't Start Now as well. I'm a bit cautious on that one due to my conservative estimates, but I wouldn't be surprised if that ends up being in the top 10 as well.
|
|
wrip
7x Platinum Member
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 7,621
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by wrip on Apr 17, 2020 11:20:18 GMT -5
I was looking at previous years and their top tens and by this point of the charting year at least half of the top ten of the year end typically has entered the top ten on the weekly charts (most years itโs more like 6-8). So if the same goes for this year, thereโs anywhere from 5-8 songs that have been or are in the top ten. My guesses are: The Box, Blinding Lights, Circles, Donโt Start Now, Say So, Toosie Slide, and either SYL or Memories.
|
|
inverse
2x Platinum Member
Your mind is in disturbia...
Joined: December 2015
Posts: 2,093
|
Post by inverse on Apr 17, 2020 12:32:58 GMT -5
Y'all are making boring predictions. Gonna be the first to say Everything I Wanted will finish top 10 with a peak of #8
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 12:52:19 GMT -5
Y'all are making boring predictions. Gonna be the first to say Everything I Wanted will finish top 10 with a peak of #8 "Congratulations" tease ๐ (I'm so sorry for using stan Twitter lingo, but that was the perfect expression and the first thing that came to mind)
|
|
Kologne
Charting
Joined: April 2017
Posts: 193
|
Post by Kologne on Apr 17, 2020 13:12:11 GMT -5
I think Kinfolks and other songs that charted before covid-19 could have an edge on making the year-end chart if the music climate becomes less competitive and charts weaker because of the consequences of lockdowns
|
|
wrip
7x Platinum Member
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 7,621
My Charts
Pronouns: he/him/his
|
Post by wrip on Apr 17, 2020 13:17:46 GMT -5
Y'all are making boring predictions. Gonna be the first to say Everything I Wanted will finish top 10 with a peak of #8 Iโd be pretty happy about this tbh
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 13:38:40 GMT -5
I think Kinfolks and other songs that charted before covid-19 could have an edge on making the year-end chart if the music climate becomes less competitive and charts weaker because of the consequences of lockdowns Even Though I'm Leaving and Kinfolks are definitely songs I can think of that would have their run on the 2020 year end saved because of this.
|
|
sirskimask
Platinum Member
LLJW 999
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,324
|
Post by sirskimask on Apr 17, 2020 15:35:29 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 22 (April 18, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING:
Circles (current position: 6 [-2], peak position: 1, weeks charting: 32) Weeks in top 10: 32
Someone You Loved (current position: 11 [-1], peak position: 1, weeks charting: 48) Weeks in top 10: 27
No Guidance (current position: 38 [-3], peak position: 5, weeks charting: 44) Weeks in top 10: 23
OUT THIS WEEK: None
ALL REPEATS:
Circles Someone You Loved No Guidance Senorita bad guy Trampoline Truth Hurts Only Human Panini
|
|
lifeofaguardian
Charting
Almost definitely not a furry
Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
|
Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 17, 2020 16:22:42 GMT -5
Who is guaranteed a TOP10 at this point, especially with corona?? The Box, Circles, SYL? So far in my predictions, based on 2019's precedent The Box and Circles are currently locked for the top 20 and will likely get to the top 10 within the next 10 weeks (with The Box gaining enough points to be number 1). Right outside the top 10 is Blinding Lights (would end up at 12 with 10 more weeks at its current pace), Don't Start Now (15) and as a bit of a long shot Memories (17). As for SYL, given that it's getting really close to the 25/52 rule, it will most likely end somewhere in the top 20. If it were to fall off the week after it gets to 52 weeks, it would be around number 23. I'm assuming it might stick around for a few more weeks, which might be enough to put it low in the top 20. As for other songs, I'm going to say Life Is Good and Everything I Wanted have pretty decent chances imo. Life is still pretty early in its cycle and going pretty strong and the radio loves Billie Eilish so I can see her getting the longevity needed. Looking further into the numbers, The Box, Circles, Blinding Lights and Don't Start Now all need less than 15 weeks at their current positions to lock for the top 10 (5, 9, 11, and 14 weeks, respectively). The only other songs that would need less than 20 weeks to lock are Someone You Loved (which would need to beat the 25/52 rule for 14 weeks, and going out on a limb I don't think that'll happen) and Toosie Slide (which would need to keep putting up the same numbers as its debut for the next 18 weeks, which again seems unlikely). The latter might have the longevity necessary, though, it's still early to tell what with it having charted for a whole single week.
|
|
|
Post by twelvevinylrecords on Apr 17, 2020 20:55:29 GMT -5
What would you should be sad need to make the YE?
|
|
atg
3x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 3,003
|
Post by atg on Apr 17, 2020 21:11:31 GMT -5
i swear yall hoes dont think any song is locked lmao The hoes are laughing? YUH
|
|
|
Post by Lukas on Apr 17, 2020 21:26:47 GMT -5
How we are applying the definition of "locked" though (in terms of top ten standards)?
Like, unless The Box loses all of its streaming in the next few weeks or Circles loses all of its airplay, both songs making the top 10 is basically guaranteed. It's almost one of the biggest guarantees you can make here. I think that should be sufficient to say that it is locked.
That said, they may not have the cumulative points yet to be within the top 10 range of the last few years (but they will eventually haha) so that could propose an alternative perspective.
|
|
|
Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Apr 17, 2020 22:30:14 GMT -5
Y'all are making boring predictions. Gonna be the first to say Everything I Wanted will finish top 10 with a peak of #8 That would be nice. But Post and Quavo already did it 3 years ago with "Congratulations".
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2020 22:51:14 GMT -5
What would you should be sad need to make the YE? I say it needs at least 2 more weeks to be somewhat safe for the 2020 year end list (assuming the charts stay weak because of COVID-19).
|
|
lifeofaguardian
Charting
Almost definitely not a furry
Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
|
Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 18, 2020 1:55:02 GMT -5
How we are applying the definition of "locked" though (in terms of top ten standards)? Like, unless The Box loses all of its streaming in the next few weeks or Circles loses all of its airplay, both songs making the top 10 is basically guaranteed. It's almost one of the biggest guarantees you can make here. I think that should be sufficient to say that it is locked. That said, they may not have the cumulative points yet to be within the top 10 range of the last few years (but they will eventually haha) so that could propose an alternative perspective. I'd agree with you there, when I used the word "locked" for my top 10 predictions earlier, I meant the latter definition. Basically "this is how many weeks they still need to be guaranteed a spot in the top 10, even if they were to drop off the face of billboard by some mystery the week after". What would you should be sad need to make the YE? According to my numbers, it should cross my "locked" threshold next week (barring a massive drop to number 100 or something like that) and I'd probably consider it relatively safe if it lasts a second week.
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 18, 2020 2:03:11 GMT -5
Remember when everyone said boyfriend was locked until it lost all it points in 2 weeks and bleary made it above a song that peaked at 49
|
|
dremolus - solarpunk
Diamond Member
Best In This Chaotic Hell with the best taste
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 13,279
My Reviews
Pronouns: (he/him/they)
|
Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Apr 18, 2020 9:56:13 GMT -5
I don't know if this has been answered before but who has more total weeks in the Top 10 (not including features): Drake or Post Malone?
|
|
|
Post by nathanalbright on Apr 18, 2020 10:41:58 GMT -5
Remember when everyone said boyfriend was locked until it lost all it points in 2 weeks and bleary made it above a song that peaked at 49 I remember that, but a lot of times people think of locked as being based on current rates of change as opposed to the points that it has right now if it dropped off the face of the earth.
|
|
mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
|
Post by mako on Apr 18, 2020 13:23:36 GMT -5
Week 22 (April 18, 2020) *Didn't have time to post last week's update (again)
Locked last week/this week: [LAST WEEK] Ritmo (Bad Boys For Life) [THIS WEEK] Godzilla, Say So Locked Locked next week Locked in two weeks Recurrent/Not Charting Top 10 this week
-TOP 15- (6500) 1. (+1) The Box 6495 2. (-1) Circles 6371 -TOP 20- (5750) 3. (=) Memories 5157 4. (=) Someone You Loved 5026 -TOP 25- (5000) 5. (=) Roxanne 4819 6. (=) Dance Monkey 4592 7. (+1) Don't Start Now 4417 8. (-1) 10,000 Hours 4302 -TOP 30- (4000) 9. (+2) Life Is Good 3984 10. (+7) Blinding Lights 3844 11. (-2) Lose You To Love Me 3805 (#34) 12. (-2) Good As Hell 3804 (#35) 13. (-1) Ballin' 3786 14. (-1) Bop 3725 15. (-1) Everything I Wanted 3683 -TOP 40- (3600) 16. (=) Heartless - The Weeknd 3487 17. (-2) No Guidance 3470 18. (+1) Hot Girl Bummer 3204 -TOP 50- (3100) 19. (-1) Woah 3092 (#51) 20. (+1) The Bones 3072 21. (+3) Adore You 2980 22. (-2) Senorita 2834 (#57) 23. (+2) Falling 2764 -TOP 60- (2700) 24. (-2) Highest In The Room 2635 (#62) 25. (-2) Bad Guy 2604 (#63) 26. (=) Trampoline 2415 (#69) 27. (+3) My Oh My 2414 -TOP 70- (2400) 28. (+1) Yummy 2297 29. (-2) Truth Hurts 2295 (#75) 30. (+3) Heart On Ice 2275 31. (-3) One Man Band 2236 (#78) -TOP 80- (2200) 32. (+5) Suicidal 2145 33. (+8) High Fashion 2076 34. (+8) Ritmo (Bad Boys For Life) 2071 35. (+4) Homesick 2065 36. (-5) Bandit 2056 (#86) 37. (-5) Only Human 1998 (#88) 38. (-4) Hot 1970 (#89) -TOP 90- (1950) 39. (-4) Panini 1918 (#92) 40. (-4) Juicy 1914 (#93) 41. (+3) Godzilla 1903 42. (-4) All I Want For Christmas Is You 1865 43. (+8) Say So 1858 44. (-4) Even Though I'm Leaving 1807 (#100) -CUTOFF (1800)- 45. (+2) You Should Be Sad 1778 46. (=) Tusa 1775 47. (+13) Intentions 1730 48. (=) Best On Earth 1709 49. (-6) Kinfolks 1702 50. (+3) I Hope 1689 51. (+3) Slide 1630 52. (-7) I Don't Care 1619 53. (-1) Ridin' Roads 1577 54. (+1) Sum 2 Prove 1571 55. (-6) Vete 1541 56. (+7) What A Man Gotta Do 1476 57. (+10) What She Wants Tonight 1451 58. (+10) More Hearts Than Mine 1440 59. (-9) Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree 1430 60. (+11) Nobody But You 1393 61. (-5) We Back 1351 62. (-5) Graveyard 1347 63. (-5) Sucker 1344 64. (-5) Lover 1338 65. (-4) Futsal Shuffle 2020 1325 66. (-4) Vibez 1317 67. (-3) Heartache Medication 1305 68. (-3) Old Town Road 1301 69. (+11) Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 1292 70. (+8) I Hope You're Happy Now 1276 71. (-2) Make No Sense 1266 72. (-6) On Chill 1259 73. (+4) Out West 1256 74. (+9) Pu$$y Fairy (OTW) 1187 75. (+20) Chasin' You 1135 76. (-6) Ran$om 1127 77. (+24) Blueberry Faygo 1115 78. (+15) Homemade 1109 79. (-7) Jingle Bell Rock 1095 80. (-7) Playing Games 1087 81. (=) Into The Unknown 1086 82. (-8) A Holly Jolly Christmas 1076 83. (-8) I Wish Grandpas Never Died 1071 84. (-8) Heat 1066 85. (+17) Catch 1058 86. (-7) No Idea 1042 87. (-5) Camelot 1000 88. (+20) Stupid Love 982 89. (-5) Take What You Want 976 90. (-5) What If I Never Get Over You 964 91. (-5) Easy 959 92. (-5) Beautiful People 932 93. (-5) Start Wit Me 932 94. (+17) Whats Poppin 931 95. (+14) Dior 925 96. (-7) South Of The Border 924 97. (-7) Homecoming Queen? 913 98. (+12) Before You Go 910 99. (+7) B.I.T.C.H. 903 100. (-9) Make Me Want To 902
Songs below #100 that are on the rise/ over 95 points this week (excluding most album bomb songs)
107. () Come Thru 812 109. (+15) After Hours 773 112. () Heartless - Diplo ft. Morgan Wallen 744 120. (+27) I Love Me 668 123. (+29) Sunday Best 635 126. (+22) The Other Side 613 135. (+43) Savage 570 148. (+21) Myron 495 151. (+39) Death Bed 472 155. (+43) Does To Me 429 157. (+45) Beer Can't Fix 423 158. () Yo Perreo Sola 421 160. (+43) Supalonely 413 162. (+55) In Your Eyes 409 163. (NEW) Toosie Slide 409 171. (+88) Roses (Imanbek Remix) 379 180. () Walk Em Down 305 185. () Turks 281 187. () Break My Heart 273 194. () Believe It 252 213. () Hard To Forget 209 221. () After A Few 193 248. (NEW) Find My Way 146 300. (NEW) F*ck The World 102 307. (NEW) Pray 4 Love 100 318. (NEW) Be A Light 97
|
|
atg
3x Platinum Member
Joined: April 2016
Posts: 3,003
|
Post by atg on Apr 18, 2020 15:09:22 GMT -5
Top 5 YE Prediction (no order)
- The Box - Circles - Blinding Lights - Donโt Start Now - Life is Good (maybe)
6-10 prediction (this is not gonna be accurate at all lool)
- Memories - Dance Monkey - Someone You Loved - Roxanne (or a song in the later half of the year) - Say So (or a song in the later half of the year) - (#1 Summer Song)
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2020 13:22:50 GMT -5
Hate to be a bummer here but there could be a possibility that You Should Be Sad gets kicked out by a potential DaBaby album bomb. If this does happen, then that puts it at around 1690 points on my predictions, which is just under the 1700 point threshold. That means that it's more likely to miss the 2020 year end list than make it.
|
|
GP
4x Platinum Member
TOOOO BE LOOOVED
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,974
|
Post by GP on Apr 19, 2020 14:48:52 GMT -5
Poor Halsey, will she have no entries this year then?
|
|
Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2020 14:49:54 GMT -5
Poor Halsey, will she have no entries this year then? You Should Be Sad still has a chance to sneak in, especially if the charts stay weak for the rest of the year, so I wouldn't count it out just yet.
|
|
|
Post by Lukas on Apr 19, 2020 19:40:00 GMT -5
Life Is Good is incredibly stable and started off strong too so I wouldnโt be surprised if it went top 5 of the year end.
I think other songs for the top 10 include The Box (very likely will be YE #1), Blinding Lights, and Circles. Donโt Start Now and Say So also have chances as well. Unless Roxanne stabilizes soon it will probably miss the mark. Someone You Loved has a slim chance though and it really depends on when it goes recurrent. Everything other top 10 contender is I think too early to call on.
|
|
|
Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Apr 19, 2020 20:35:16 GMT -5
My predictions for YE Top 5 - The Box (#1) - Blinding Lights - Circles - Don't Start Now - Say So or Life Is Good (the other song would be #6)
I'll say "Toosie Slide" may have a similar run to "Nice For What", having a fair amount of weeks at #1, but aren't enough to lock itself in Top 10 YE (I won't be surprised if it also ends up at #11, like Nice For What did)
|
|
GPMB
Gold Member
Joined: December 2016
Posts: 618
|
Post by GPMB on Apr 19, 2020 21:44:42 GMT -5
i really want Dior to make the YE
|
|
GP
4x Platinum Member
TOOOO BE LOOOVED
Joined: December 2017
Posts: 4,974
|
Post by GP on Apr 20, 2020 5:42:03 GMT -5
DSN in the top5, I would LOVE!!
|
|
mako
Platinum Member
formerly known as "the one letter"
|
Post by mako on Apr 20, 2020 6:05:38 GMT -5
i really want Dior to make the YE That would be amazing. RIP
|
|
|
Post by ๐ฒ๐ฝ'๐ผ.๐ฐ๐ฟ on Apr 20, 2020 6:14:38 GMT -5
DSN in the top5, I would LOVE!! That would be pretty exciting especially the fact that besides Post Malone (and possibly Drake if Life Is Good or Toosie Slide is in), all possible contenders so far in Top 5 YE would be their first (Weeknd got as high as #9 before in 2015 with Earned It)
|
|