atg
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Post by atg on Apr 22, 2020 10:04:26 GMT -5
I wish it was possible to make a poll but I don't think it is so... What do you think's gonna be the highest song to not get into the top 10 -The Bones -Ballin' -Hot Girl Bummer -other
I think it'll be Bones but it might also dip its toes in the top 10 if Everything I Wanted, the atrocity Intentions, and Life Is Good all stumble out of the top 10 at once
It’s easily the bones (or other if something comes up later on in the year)
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 22, 2020 10:28:20 GMT -5
I feel like Ballin or The Bones will be the highest non-top ten songs of the year. Based on current predictions, Ballin is around #35 and The Bones is around #50. I feel like both could end up in the 21-30 range on Year End
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 22, 2020 10:39:24 GMT -5
It's really early to say, however I think our Top 3 is gonna be The Box, Circles and Blinding Lights. Roddy and Post are all but confirmed to finish in the Top 3 anyways and I think The Weeknd is on track right now.
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 22, 2020 11:06:57 GMT -5
My predictions for top five: 1. The Box 2. Blinding Lights 3. Circles 4. Don’t Start Now 5. Say So
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Apr 22, 2020 12:00:56 GMT -5
1. Blinding Lights 2. The Box 3. Circles 4. Say So 5. something released in the next 2-3 months 6. DSN
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Apr 22, 2020 12:14:25 GMT -5
1. Blinding Lights 2. The Box 3. Circles 4. Say So 5. something released in the next 2-3 months 6. DSN bold move to put Blinding Lights at #1 over The Box, personally I'd flip the two (though I would be pleasantly surprised to see Blinding Lights finish at #1 even tho I think both songs are great)
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Apr 22, 2020 12:26:30 GMT -5
I feel like Blinding Lights will last longer and that's what'll push it over the top
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 22, 2020 12:43:37 GMT -5
Personally, Blinding Lights feels more like the number one song of the year to me but also feel like The Box might end up on top.
Also just some probably very wrong predictions about 6-10: 6. Something waiting to hit top ten 7/8: Life Is Good and Toosie Slide 9/10: Memories/EIW/Something waiting to hit top ten.
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mako
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Post by mako on Apr 22, 2020 14:29:27 GMT -5
I know unless a miracle happens, it won't make the actual year-end, but will SUGAR atleast manage the year-end for Hip-Hop and R&B? I really hope it does, but it's currently a longshot. On a related note, i'll also try to put out Genre-specific year-end predictions at the end of the chart year alongside the h100 year-end predictions.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Apr 22, 2020 17:19:25 GMT -5
I'm completely fine with either "Blinding Lights" or "The Box" being YE #1, both are really great songs.
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Post by Lukas on Apr 22, 2020 19:39:43 GMT -5
Unless The Box like mega-collapses within the next few months, I highly doubt Blinding Lights is going to overtake it on YE. For BL to do that, it will need to average ~9,000 points over The Box for the rest of the year. Since Blinding Lights is too peaking and since radio and streaming are not ditching The Box like, at all, don't count on there being an overtake here.
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tuna
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Post by tuna on Apr 22, 2020 20:24:36 GMT -5
we'll see
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 22, 2020 20:47:21 GMT -5
I'm completely fine with either "Blinding Lights" or "The Box" being YE #1, both are really great songs. Legit this is one of my favorite years so far, the Top 3 plus Say So and Don't Start Now potentially finishing Top 10 would round-up a great year.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Apr 22, 2020 21:01:11 GMT -5
I'm completely fine with either "Blinding Lights" or "The Box" being YE #1, both are really great songs. Legit this is one of my favorite years so far, the Top 3 plus Say So and Don't Start Now potentially finishing Top 10 would round-up a great year. I would definitely love to see Doja round off the Top 5 over Life Is Good and/or Toosie Slide (sorry Drake)
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atg
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Post by atg on Apr 22, 2020 22:17:50 GMT -5
If blinding lights is the #1 YE song, that would make my prediction about a weeknd song being #1 of the year that i said at the beginning of december and even if not i was still close enough
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 23, 2020 1:53:58 GMT -5
bold of you guys to think Someone You Loved won’t be top 10 YE
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Apr 23, 2020 2:30:27 GMT -5
bold of you guys to think Someone You Loved won’t be top 10 YE For me, I think it will barely miss Top 10, say it may end up in #12-#15 range
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 23, 2020 6:09:49 GMT -5
bold of you guys to think Someone You Loved won’t be top 10 YE I've said it before, but Someone You Loved basically only has a shot if the top 10 cutoff is really low. According to my calculations it needs seventeen more weeks at it's current position to get past the top 10 cutoff of last year. It has 3 more weeks before it'll need to start surviving the 52/25 rule. Now, granted, my calculations might not be accurate and it'll most likely survive past 52 weeks, but it's still probably over 200.000 points away from the top 10, while gaining around 17.000 points a week. I can pretty confidently say it'll make the top 20 (even surviving one more week after hitting 52 weeks will have it cross the top 20 treshold), but I highly doubt even the radio will be able to keep it around for that long.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Apr 23, 2020 16:49:38 GMT -5
Year end prediction recalculation coming btw
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kcdawg13
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 23, 2020 17:43:07 GMT -5
Yeah despite sticking around for so long most of Someone You Loved's weeks in 2020 have been weak, it only sat between the 8-11 position for so many weeks cuz points are so low right now. Gives it a feeling of being a lot bigger than it is.
In a stronger year it wouldn't have so much longevity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2020 23:44:51 GMT -5
Hoping Tusa manages to sneak into the year end
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2020 1:28:34 GMT -5
Hoping Tusa manages to sneak into the year end If it is able to beat the recurrent rules for just 1 week, then its chances of making the 2020 year end list are moderately improved. Seeing how its radio is still stable, I'm not sure if it will stay for a 21st week or not. If it doesn't get an extra week, its chances will be slim but still possible.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 2:38:37 GMT -5
As I expected, Stupid Love is starting to drop on radio. Unlike You Should Be Sad, it didn't last nearly as long. I expect it to miss the year end.
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lights
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Post by lights on Apr 25, 2020 6:46:20 GMT -5
As I expected, Stupid Love is starting to drop on radio. Unlike You Should Be Sad, it didn't last nearly as long. I expect it to miss the year end. Stupid Love has been almost exactly mirroring the run of 'Never Really Over' up until now, except it looks like it will probably tank on radio a couple of weeks earlier, so will miss comfortably.
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spoons
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Post by spoons on Apr 25, 2020 11:18:31 GMT -5
Sum 2 Prove made some radio gains recently. What are it's chances to make the year end?
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wrip
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Post by wrip on Apr 25, 2020 11:21:59 GMT -5
Makes me sad that Stupid Love is looking like it’ll miss :/ I actually like that song and I feel like it deserves a spot on year end.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 11:23:33 GMT -5
Sum 2 Prove made some radio gains recently. What are it's chances to make the year end? It should be able to get there as long as it doesn't drop out within the next month so pretty likely.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 25, 2020 15:11:44 GMT -5
Sum 2 Prove made some radio gains recently. What are it's chances to make the year end? it’s already close to the cutoff by my calculations so even if the dropout comes sooner than expected I think it’ll be safe
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 25, 2020 15:49:10 GMT -5
Sum 2 Prove made some radio gains recently. What are it's chances to make the year end? According to my calculations, it'll be locked in 3 weeks as long as it keeps up it's current momentum, alongside Slide and Nobody But You. As for Stupid Love, I think if it manages to get to 20 weeks, it should be safe. Currently, it'd lock within the next 8 weeks at its current momentum, and with 13 weeks to go until it hits recurrent, it still has a small chance of sneaking in. I do hope it does, personally. Personally, I'm curious about what people think the chances for More Hearts Than Mine are. It's been gaining pretty steadily, do you guys think it'll be able to stick around long enough to make the year-end list? I'd say yes, but I know country radio has a tendency of dropping songs pretty abruptly right before they'd lock.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 16:31:33 GMT -5
Sum 2 Prove made some radio gains recently. What are it's chances to make the year end? According to my calculations, it'll be locked in 3 weeks as long as it keeps up it's current momentum, alongside Slide and Nobody But You. As for Stupid Love, I think if it manages to get to 20 weeks, it should be safe. Currently, it'd lock within the next 8 weeks at its current momentum, and with 13 weeks to go until it hits recurrent, it still has a small chance of sneaking in. I do hope it does, personally. Personally, I'm curious about what people think the chances for More Hearts Than Mine are. It's been gaining pretty steadily, do you guys think it'll be able to stick around long enough to make the year-end list? I'd say yes, but I know country radio has a tendency of dropping songs pretty abruptly right before they'd lock. That's a question I ask myself a lot. A few days ago, I would have said it should be able to make the 2020 year end list as long as it slowly gains on country radio and waits for songs like I Hope, Nobody But You and Chasin' You to fight for the top spot before it reaches there itself (basically don't reach #1 too quickly or early).
That would have allowed the song to slowly gain on the hot 100 chart as well, reaching #1 on country radio on its 19th week or later, which means it could have had a good chance to pass the 20 week rule, thus meaning it would pass Even Though I'm Leaving at around 1800 points in my predictions (the lowest somewhat safe song in my opinion).
However, since Warner Nashville seems to want back to back #1s with female country artists, it will reach #1 and inevitably peak on country radio this week (which is its 17th week on the charts). This is bad news for the song's chances for the 2020 year end list because the song will definitely drop after, and will probably not surpass 20 weeks on the hot 100 chart.
This means that its chances will now fully depend on how slow its radio will fall. If it falls fast, then it won't even hit the 1700 point mark in my predictions (which is what I think the cutoff will be this year). This would mean that it will probably just miss the cut. If it falls slowly, then it should be able to at least pass that mark, maybe even pass Kinfolks (at 1710 points and projected #100 for me). This would mean that it would barely make the cut.
However, even if it doesn't make it past the 1700 point mark, if the charts do stay weak for the rest of the year, then it could still sneak in as the projected cutoff goes even lower, maybe even to 1600 points. My final answer is, it could literally go either way. My gut feeling says it should make it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.
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