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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 25, 2020 19:45:47 GMT -5
^More Hearts than Mine will probably be #1 in Country Airplay this week. Unfortunately, this will probably mean it will be also its peak in radio audience and the start of its descent unless it is able to cross over to other radio formats, which seems unlikely. If it manages to chart beyond 20 weeks in the Hot 100, I would say it should have a pretty good chance of making the Year-End.
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Post by waluigionascooter on Apr 25, 2020 20:57:05 GMT -5
It's not even May but it already seems like there's gonna be a lot of country songs.
Pretty much confirmed: 10,000 Hours The Bones I Hope Nobody But You One Man Band Chasin You
Very Likely: Homesick Even Though I'm Leaving Catch More Hearts Than Mine
Moderate Chance: Kinfolks Slow Dance In A Parking Lot I Hope Your Happy Now
Too Early To Tell: Hard To Forget Does To Me Beer Can't Fix
Maybe its just the lack of new rap and pop songs coming out lately, but its still insane we have almost 2013 levels of legit country hits.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 21:27:30 GMT -5
It's not even May but it already seems like there's gonna be a lot of country songs. Pretty much confirmed: 10,000 Hours The Bones I Hope Nobody But You One Man Band Chasin You Very Likely: Homesick Even Though I'm Leaving Catch More Hearts Than Mine Moderate Chance: Kinfolks Slow Dance In A Parking Lot I Hope Your Happy Now Too Early To Tell: Hard To Forget Does To Me Beer Can't Fix Maybe its just the lack of new rap and pop songs coming out lately, but its still insane we have almost 2013 levels of legit country hits. Catch and Slow Dance In A Parking lot are pretty unlikely in my opinion. They've already peaked on the radio and will head out soon.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 25, 2020 21:46:39 GMT -5
^Yeah. Unfortunately, Country radio has quite a quick turnover at #1. That, in itself, is not bad, but once a song starts dropping there, it tends to do so like a rock.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 21:48:54 GMT -5
^Yeah. Unfortunately, Country radio has quite a quick turnover at #1. That, in itself, is not bad, but once a song starts dropping there, it tends to do so like a rock. It really depends on how fast country radio drops a song and how reliant it is on radio. One Man Band for example dropped on the radio pretty slowly after it peaked, and not to mention it had quite a bit of streaming compared to other country songs. Because of that, it was able to avoid being caught between years and will be comfortably making 2020's year end list.
Songs like Catch or Slow Dance In A Parking Lot are almost completely reliant on radio and they tumbled down quite fast there once they reached #1. Because of this, they fall off too quickly before being able to pass the cutoff. More Hearts Than Mine might have the same issue if it ends up going the same fate, since it's also pretty reliant on the radio.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 26, 2020 0:17:21 GMT -5
^Of course, some Country songs have managed to have decent streaming. Those are usually by certain artists as well. BTW, I find it surprising that One Man Band still manages to chart in Streaming Songs. It seems to be the equivalent of Believer in the Country genre.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 26, 2020 1:41:23 GMT -5
As I expected, Stupid Love is starting to drop on radio. Unlike You Should Be Sad, it didn't last nearly as long. I expect it to miss the year end. Stupid Love has been almost exactly mirroring the run of 'Never Really Over' up until now, except it looks like it will probably tank on radio a couple of weeks earlier, so will miss comfortably. I would say a better comparison for Stupid Love’s chart run is Futsal Shuffle 2020, not Never Really Over
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Apr 26, 2020 2:10:30 GMT -5
According to my calculations, it'll be locked in 3 weeks as long as it keeps up it's current momentum, alongside Slide and Nobody But You. As for Stupid Love, I think if it manages to get to 20 weeks, it should be safe. Currently, it'd lock within the next 8 weeks at its current momentum, and with 13 weeks to go until it hits recurrent, it still has a small chance of sneaking in. I do hope it does, personally. Personally, I'm curious about what people think the chances for More Hearts Than Mine are. It's been gaining pretty steadily, do you guys think it'll be able to stick around long enough to make the year-end list? I'd say yes, but I know country radio has a tendency of dropping songs pretty abruptly right before they'd lock. That's a question I ask myself a lot. A few days ago, I would have said it should be able to make the 2020 year end list as long as it slowly gains on country radio and waits for songs like I Hope, Nobody But You and Chasin' You to fight for the top spot before it reaches there itself (basically don't reach #1 too quickly or early).
That would have allowed the song to slowly gain on the hot 100 chart as well, reaching #1 on country radio on its 19th week or later, which means it could have had a good chance to pass the 20 week rule, thus meaning it would pass Even Though I'm Leaving at around 1800 points in my predictions (the lowest somewhat safe song in my opinion).
However, since Warner Nashville seems to want back to back #1s with female country artists, it will reach #1 and inevitably peak on country radio this week (which is its 17th week on the charts). This is bad news for the song's chances for the 2020 year end list because the song will definitely drop after, and will probably not surpass 20 weeks on the hot 100 chart.
This means that its chances will now fully depend on how slow its radio will fall. If it falls fast, then it won't even hit the 1700 point mark in my predictions (which is what I think the cutoff will be this year). This would mean that it will probably just miss the cut. If it falls slowly, then it should be able to at least pass that mark, maybe even pass Kinfolks (at 1710 points and projected #100 for me). This would mean that it would barely make the cut.
However, even if it doesn't make it past the 1700 point mark, if the charts do stay weak for the rest of the year, then it could still sneak in as the projected cutoff goes even lower, maybe even to 1600 points. My final answer is, it could literally go either way. My gut feeling says it should make it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.
Hm, that insight in the country charts was pretty interesting, I don't pay a lot of attention to the genre charts, personally. Based on my numbers, it would pass the 175.000 mark in 5 more weeks, which means it'd need to stick around one week past its 20th to lock (provided it gets on average as much points as it had last week). I think what will also be important is how much that radio peak will influence the points it gets - if it leads to a decent boost in points this week, it might be able to make it as long as it manages to stick around for the full 20 weeks. I do hope it does, it's an excellent song.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 26, 2020 13:03:28 GMT -5
As I expected, Stupid Love is starting to drop on radio. Unlike You Should Be Sad, it didn't last nearly as long. I expect it to miss the year end. Stupid Love has been almost exactly mirroring the run of 'Never Really Over' up until now, except it looks like it will probably tank on radio a couple of weeks earlier, so will miss comfortably. Makes me sad that Stupid Love is looking like it’ll miss :/ I actually like that song and I feel like it deserves a spot on year end. It makes me sad too, and I also agree that its performance is very analogous to Never Really Over: great songs that were overall very well-received by two slightly aging pop stars returning to form, but that just couldn't break through with contemporary audiences to become huge hits. It seems like Stupid Love had a stronger chance initially, as it debuted in the top 5, but yeah radio has been the only thing keeping it afloat and now it seems like that has started to free-fall, so its chances of making it to even close to 20 weeks seems very slim.
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kcdawg13
7x Platinum Member
XO tatted all over her body
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Post by kcdawg13 on Apr 26, 2020 13:18:06 GMT -5
I think Circles is gonna finish #2 over Blinding Lights personally, it's longevity is pretty crazy and it might break the 52 week rule.
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iggyamo
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Post by iggyamo on Apr 26, 2020 14:30:04 GMT -5
Stupid Love has been almost exactly mirroring the run of 'Never Really Over' up until now, except it looks like it will probably tank on radio a couple of weeks earlier, so will miss comfortably. Makes me sad that Stupid Love is looking like it’ll miss :/ I actually like that song and I feel like it deserves a spot on year end. It makes me sad too, and I also agree that its performance is very analogous to Never Really Over: great songs that were overall very well-received by two slightly aging pop stars returning to form, but that just couldn't break through with contemporary audiences to become huge hits. It seems like Stupid Love had a stronger chance initially, as it debuted in the top 5, but yeah radio has been the only thing keeping it afloat and now it seems like that has started to free-fall, so its chances of making it to even close to 20 weeks seems very slim. I wouldn’t call Stupid Love well received, if I recall correctly plenty of it’s core fan base called it ‘mid’ on release
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 26, 2020 15:45:29 GMT -5
It makes me sad too, and I also agree that its performance is very analogous to Never Really Over: great songs that were overall very well-received by two slightly aging pop stars returning to form, but that just couldn't break through with contemporary audiences to become huge hits. It seems like Stupid Love had a stronger chance initially, as it debuted in the top 5, but yeah radio has been the only thing keeping it afloat and now it seems like that has started to free-fall, so its chances of making it to even close to 20 weeks seems very slim. I wouldn’t call Stupid Love well received, if I recall correctly plenty of it’s core fan base called it ‘mid’ on release yeah I mean I personally really really like it because it does the “nostalgia for old Gaga” thing well in a way Perfect Illusion couldn’t, but I would say even some portions of ARTPOP and Joanne were better received by the fanbase
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Apr 26, 2020 20:21:29 GMT -5
If the album boost happens Stupid Love could make it
My question is why is it and a couple of other songs like You Should Be Sad and What A Man Gotta Go freefalling after getting their life support cut while Yummy has been polluting the bottom 20 of the hot 100 for about a month now?
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 26, 2020 20:42:27 GMT -5
If the album boost happens Stupid Love could make it wait but wasn't Chromatica delayed until like December or something? or maybe that was just an indefinite corona-delay that could be reversed
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iggyamo
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Post by iggyamo on Apr 26, 2020 23:28:02 GMT -5
If the album boost happens Stupid Love could make it wait but wasn't Chromatica delayed until like December or something? or maybe that was just an indefinite corona-delay that could be reversed I think it was May
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dremolus - solarpunk
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My Reviews
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on Apr 27, 2020 0:22:51 GMT -5
After a few years have passed and we look back at the biggest songs of 2020, XS by Rina Sawayama is going to eclipse all of the biggest hits of the year except for Don't Start Now, Blinding Lights and The Box. The same way Run Away with Me has eclipsed many hits, same with Ribs by Lorde, same with Dancing on My Own
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Apr 27, 2020 1:43:33 GMT -5
I updated some of the points from 3/28 to now to account for points continuing to be lower
1 Roddy Ricch - The Box 6,656 2 Post Malone - Circles 6,201 3 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 5,093 4 Maroon 5 - Memories 5,064 5 Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 4,957 6 Tones & I - Dance Monkey 4,513 7 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 4,464 8 Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 4,234 9 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 4,037 10 Billie Eilish - everything I wanted 3,835
11 Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good 3,765 12 Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin' 3,715 13 Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 3,665 14 DaBaby - BOP 3,651 15 Lizzo - Good As Hell 3,594 16 The Weeknd - Heartless 3,509 17 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 3,404 18 blackbear - hot girl bummer 3,255 19 Marren Morris - The Bones 3,143 20 Harry Styles - Adore You 3,042
21 Lil Baby - Woah 2,971 22 Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita 2,761 23 Trevor Daniel - Falling 2,693 24 Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2,578 25 Billie Eilish - bad guy 2,536 26 Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My 2,455 27 SHAED - Trampoline 2,376 28 Lizzo - Truth Hurts 2,245 29 Justin Bieber - Yummy 2,151 30 Old Dominion - One Man Band 2,148
31 Rod Wave - Heart on Ice 2,142 32 Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion 2,050 33 YNW Melly, Juice WRLD - Suicidal 2,017 34 Black Eyed Peas, J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 1,997 35 Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit 1,978 36 Jonas Brothers - Only Human 1,951 37 Doja Cat - Say So 1,941 38 Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions 1,926 39 Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot 1,905 40 Lil Nas X - Panini 1,879
41 Kane Brown - Homesick 1,860 42 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You 1,852 43 Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla 1,794 44 Doja Cat, Tyga - Juicy 1,782 45 Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving 1,744 46 Halsey - You should be sad 1,731 -LOCKED CUTOFF: 1706 POINTS- 47 Gabby Barret - I Hope 1,657 48 Sam Hunt - Kinfolks 1,653 49 Karol G ft. Nicki Minaj - Tusa 1,639 50 Ed Sheeran ft. Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 1,610
51 Russ ft. BIA - BEST ON EARTH 1,572 52 Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove 1,526 53 H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide 1,514 54 Dustin Lynch - Ridin Roads 1,457 55 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 1,335 56 Blake Shelton, Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You 1,315 57 Brenda Lee - Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 1,309 58 Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 1,307 59 Taylor Swift - Lover 1,289 60 Luke Bryan - What She Wants Tonight 1,283
61 Ingrid Andress - More Hearts than Mine 1,279 62 Halsey - Graveyard 1,271 63 Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication 1,258 64 Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road 1,256 65 Bad Bunny - Vete 1,250 66 DaBaby - VIBEZ 1,247 67 Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill 1,202 68 Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 1,201 69 Jason Aldean - We Back 1,165 70 JACKBOYS ft. Young Thug - OUT WEST 1,143
71 Jordan Davis - Slow Dancing in a Parking Lot 1,118 72 Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 1,111 73 Lil Tecca - Ran$om 1,076 74 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 1,051 75 Summer Walker ft. Bryson Tiller - Playing Games 1,037 76 Carly Pearce, Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now 1,026 77 Jhene Aiko - P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW) 1,025 78 Chris Brown ft. Gunna - Heat 1,019 79 YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Make No Sense 1,005 80 Morgan Wallen - Chasin You 1,004
81 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 994 82 Jake Owen - Homemade 982 83 Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 939 84 NLE Choppa - Camelot 938 85 Don Toliver - No Idea 936 86 Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You 934 87 Ed Sheeran ft. Khalid - Beautiful People 924 88 Post Malone ft. Ozzy Osbourne, Travis Scott - Take What You Want 921 89 Brett Young - Catch 919 90 Idina Menzel & AURORA - Into the Unknown 914
91 Riley Green - I Wish Grandpas Never Died 887 92 Pop Smoke - Dior 880 93 Ed Sheeran ft. Camila Cabello, Cardi B - South of the Border 861 94 Andy Williams - It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 850 95 Thomas Rhett - Remember You Young 847 96 Roddy Ricch ft. Gunna - Start Wit Me 841 97 DaniLeigh ft. Chris Brown - Easy 840 98 Khalid - Talk 835 99 Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN 818 100 Jimmie Allen - Make Me Want To 804
101 Layton Greene, Lil Baby, City Girls, PnB Rock - Leave Em Alone 796 102 Kelsea Ballerini - homecoming queen? 791 103 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 777 104 Wham! - Last Christmas 764 105 Megan Thee Stallion - B.I.T.C.H. 761 106 DaBaby ft. Lil Baby, Moneybagg Yo - TOES 760 107 YNW Melly ft. 9lokknine - 223's 758 108 Drake - Toosie Slide 729 109 Niall Horan - Nice to Meet Ya 687 110 Summer Walker ft. Usher - Come Thru 675
111 Diplo, Morgan Wallen - Heartless 673 112 Lil Uzi Vert - That Way 671 113 Tory Lanez ft. T-Pain - Jerry Sprunger 661 114 Demi Lovato - I Love Me 647 115 Megan Thee Stallion - Savage 633 116 Brockhampton - SUGAR 623 117 The Weeknd - After Hours 619 118 Post Malone ft. DaBaby - Enemies 616 119 Dean Martin - Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow 612 120 Ellie Goulding, Juice WRLD - Hate Me 600
121 Jose Feliciano - Feliz Navidad 597 122 Lil Baby, DaBaby - Baby 583 123 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 573 124 Nat King Cole - The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You) 569 125 DaBaby - Suge 564 126 Lil Uzi Vert - P2 558 127 Khalid, Disclosure - Know Your Worth 546 128 Surfaces - Sunday Best 539 129 Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred 526 130 Selena Gomez - Rare 526
131 Joji - Slow Dancing in the Dark 523 132 Trippie Redd ft. DaBaby - Death 518 133 The Ronettes - Sleigh Ride 514 134 Gene Autry - Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer 512 135 DaBaby ft. Offset - Baby Sitter 501 136 SZA, Justin Timberlake - The Other Side 500 137 Lil Uzi Vert - Baby Pluto 492 138 Andy Williams - Happy Holiday/The Holiday Season 484 139 Lil Baby, Gunna - Heatin Up 481 140 Sam Smith - How Do You Sleep? 478
141 Matt Stell - Prayed For You 473 142 Ant Saunders - Yellow Hearts 471 143 Lil Uzi Vert - Myron 470 144 Polo G ft. NLE Choppa, Stunna 4 Vegas - Go Stupid 469 145 Roddy Ricch ft. A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie - Tip Toe 469 146 Mac Miller - Good News 459 147 Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed 454 148 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - Grace 439 149 Sam Smith - To Die For 437 150 The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 433
151 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 420 152 NF - Time 412 153 Jhene Aiko ft. H.E.R. - B.S. 411 154 Bad Bunny - Si Veo A Tu Mama 410 155 Lil Yachty, DaBaby ft. Drake - Oprah's Bank Account 406 156 Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does to Me 404 157 Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - Beer Can't Fix 400 158 Bad Bunny - La Dificil 394 159 Juice WRLD - Lucid Dreams 392 160 Bad Bunny - Yo Perreo Sola 387
161 Post Malone ft. Young Thug - Goodbyes 386 162 Lil Uzi Vert - Lo Mein 381 163 MoneyBagg Yo ft. Lil Baby - U Played 380 164 BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely 375 165 Jonas Brothers - Like It's Christmas 374 166 Keith Urban - We Were 372 167 Noah Cyrus ft. Leon Bridges - July 361 168 Kanye West - Follow God 350 169 Doja Cat - Candy 347 170 Gene Autry - Here Comes Santa Claus 340
171 BTS - ON 338 172 A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie ft. Roddy Ricch, Gunna, London on Da Track - Numbers 326 173 Billie Eilish - No Time to Die 325 174 Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 324 175 Marshmello, Kane Brown - One Thing Right 324 176 Garth Brooks, Blake Shelton - Dive Bar 320 177 NAV ft. Travis Scott, Gunna - Turks 307 178 Bad Bunny, Jowell, Randy, Nengo Flow - Safaera 305 179 Lil Uzi Vert - Silly Watch 302 180 NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down 299
181 PARTYNEXTDOOR ft. Rihanna - BELIEVE IT 291 182 Billie Eilish - all the good girls go to hell 289 183 Taylor Swift - The Man 285 184 Trippie Redd ft. Juice WRLD, YNW Melly - 6 Kiss 283 185 Alicia Keys - Underdog 256 186 Roddy Ricch ft. Meek Mill - Peta 255 187 Perry Cuomo - It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas 242 188 Bad Bunny, Sech - Ignorantes 239 189 Bad Bunny, J Balvin - La Cancion 239 190 Sam Hunt - Hard to Forget 238
191 PARTYNEXTDOOR ft. Drake - Loyal 237 192 G Herbo ft. Chance the Rapper, Juice WRLD, Lil Uzi Vert - PTSD 234 193 Lil Baby ft. Lil Uzi Vert - Commercial 234 194 Drake ft. Rick Ross - Money in the Grave 234 195 Travis Denning - After a Few 226 196 Justin Bieber ft. Post Malone, Clever - Forever 226 197 Demi Lovato - Anyone 224 198 Lil Wayne ft. Big Sean, Lil Baby - I Do It 221 199 Nicki Minaj - Yikes 221 200 YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Lil Top 219
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Kologne
Charting
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Posts: 193
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Post by Kologne on Apr 27, 2020 10:30:59 GMT -5
If the album boost happens Stupid Love could make it My question is why is it and a couple of other songs like You Should Be Sad and What A Man Gotta Go freefalling after getting their life support cut while Yummy has been polluting the bottom 20 of the hot 100 for about a month now? Yummy was kept afloat because there are people who still stream it a little 10 weeks into its chart run - even though radio had already dropped that atrocious song The others three were ditched by streaming listeners after, what, four to five weeks? I am not sure if Stupid Love could re-enter the chart after leaving it for weeks. I don't know the exact rules when it comes to what is considered recurrent or not, as it appears unlikely to get 20 weeks on the hot100
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kindofbiased
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Post by kindofbiased on Apr 27, 2020 12:02:57 GMT -5
After a few years have passed and we look back at the biggest songs of 2020, XS by Rina Sawayama is going to eclipse all of the biggest hits of the year except for Don't Start Now, Blinding Lights and The Box. The same way Run Away with Me has eclipsed many hits, same with Ribs by Lorde, same with Dancing on My Own i think the goal should be that it wont have to eclipse the biggest hits of the year as it should BECOME one of the biggest hits of the year
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GP
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Post by GP on Apr 27, 2020 12:14:16 GMT -5
I missed Panini getting in, wow
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Deleted
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Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2020 14:30:26 GMT -5
I missed Panini getting in, wow Same. I keep forgetting it had made the Year-End early in the Billboard year.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Apr 27, 2020 16:05:32 GMT -5
wait but wasn't Chromatica delayed until like December or something? or maybe that was just an indefinite corona-delay that could be reversed I think it was May According to an Official Charts article today, it has a 12/31/2020 release date, but it is actually TBA.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2020 19:01:16 GMT -5
Slide seems to be in radio free fall now. However, it most likely has enough points to at the very least scrape the bottom of the 2020 year end list.
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85la
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Post by 85la on Apr 27, 2020 19:03:16 GMT -5
If the album boost happens Stupid Love could make it My question is why is it and a couple of other songs like You Should Be Sad and What A Man Gotta Go freefalling after getting their life support cut while Yummy has been polluting the bottom 20 of the hot 100 for about a month now? Yummy was kept afloat because there are people who still stream it a little 10 weeks into its chart run - even though radio had already dropped that atrocious song The others three were ditched by streaming listeners after, what, four to five weeks? I am not sure if Stupid Love could re-enter the chart after leaving it for weeks. I don't know the exact rules when it comes to what is considered recurrent or not, as it appears unlikely to get 20 weeks on the hot100 I thought there would be a clear answer to this but basically I'm not really sure because re-entry rules have become kind of convoluted, but I think basically for the purposes of this song, if it falls off and hasn't yet spent 20 weeks on the chart, it can re-enter, and if it has, it cant.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Apr 27, 2020 19:21:08 GMT -5
I feel like even if More Hearts than Mine doesn't pass 20 weeks it should still have a shot at the year end if all of the rest of its weeks are within the top 50
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atg
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Post by atg on Apr 27, 2020 23:53:09 GMT -5
I predict roddy will have a couple of sleeper hits make the year end list just like billie ellish did last year
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2020 2:33:08 GMT -5
Hoping Tusa manages to sneak into the year end If it is able to beat the recurrent rules for just 1 week, then its chances of making the 2020 year end list are moderately improved. Seeing how its radio is still stable, I'm not sure if it will stay for a 21st week or not. If it doesn't get an extra week, its chances will be slim but still possible. Yep it survived another week. Its chances are now possible instead of unlikely. If it lasts another week, then it will probably be somewhat safe.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2020 4:06:37 GMT -5
Here's week 24 of my 2020 year end predictions. I'll probably track Break My Heart, I Love Me and OUT WEST next week, but no guarantees.
Might Lock Next Week: I Hope
Dropouts: Yummy 2171 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #81.) Suicidal 2113 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #83.) Ridin' Roads 1527 (Will most likely miss the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #118.) What She Wants Tonight 1294 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
1 The Box 7312 (+300) 2 Circles 6615 (+225) 3 Someone You Loved 5460 (+155) 4 Memories 5347 (+145) 5 Roxanne 5194 (+120) 6 Don't Start Now 5067 (+260) 7 Dance Monkey 4827 (+110) 8 Blinding Lights 4721 (+370) 9 10,000 Hours 4430 (+100) 10 Life Is Good 4370 (+200) 11 Everything I Wanted 4076 (+175) 12 Ballin' 3913 (+109) 13 BOP 3804 (+98) 14 Lose You To Love Me 3719 - 15 Good As Hell 3700 -16 Heartless 3685 (+116) 17 No Guidance 3535 (+94) 18 Hot Girl Bummer 3443 (+124) 19 Adore You 3371 (+220) 20 The Bones 3366 (+165) 21 Woah 2943 -22 Falling 2889 (+126) 23 Senorita 2777 -24 My Oh My 2669 (+170) 25 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2613 - 26 Bad Guy 2588 -27 Heart On Ice 2395 (+114) 28 Trampoline 2391 - 29 Truth Hurts 2256 -30 Say So 2244 (+240) 31 Intentions 2225 (+215) 32 One Man Band 2208 -33 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 2178 (+107) 34 Yummy 2171 -35 High Fashion 2149 (+122) 36 Suicidal 2113 -
37 Bandit 2029 -
- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (2000 Points) - - - - -
38 Only Human 1963 - 39 Homesick 1963 - 40 Hot 1945 - 41 Juicy 1933 - 42 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 - 43 Panini 1895 -44 I Hope 1864 (+150) 45 Godzilla 1848 (+79) 46 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 - - - - - - - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - - - - - -
47 You Should Be Sad 1770 (+69) 48 Tusa 1757 (+76) 49 BEST ON EARTH 1714 (+81) 50 Kinfolks 1710 -51 Slide 1660 (+85) 52 Sum 2 Prove 1646 (+83) 53 I Don't Care 1612 -
54 Ridin' Roads 1527 - 55 Nobody But You 1506 (+135) - - - - - TRACKING CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -
56 More Hearts Than Mine 1404 (+112) 57 Blueberry Faygo 1302 (+140) 58 Slow Dance In A Parking Lot 1210 (+74) 59 I Hope You're Happy Now 1198 (+95) 60 Chasin' You 1178 (+130) 61 Toosie Slide 1140 (+320) 62 P**sy Fairy (OTW) 1116 (+72) 63 Stupid Love 1089 (+96) 64 Homemade 1053 (+68) 65 Catch 1012 (+90) 66 Dior 1009 (+89) 67 WHATS POPPIN 950 (+104) 68 Before You Go 858 (+86) 69 Savage 811 (+160) 70 Sunday Best 677 (+103) 71 Death Bed 603 (+118) 72 Roses 549 (+128) 73 In Your Eyes 524 (+88) 74 Does To Me 519 (+101) 75 Beer Can't Fix 504 (+91) 76 Supalonely 470 (+84) 77 Hard To Forget 340 (+93)
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2020 4:23:30 GMT -5
Here's the projected cutoff for the next 7 weeks assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut.
Week 25 (48.08%) 46 You Should Be Sad 1839 47 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 48 Tusa 1757 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 49 Slide 1745 50 Sum 2 Prove 1729 51 BEST ON EARTH 1714
Week 26 (50%)48 Sum 2 Prove 1812 49 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 50 Toosie Slide 1780 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
51 Nobody But You 1776 52 Tusa 1757 53 BEST ON EARTH 1714 Week 27 (51.92%) 50 Slide 1830 51 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 52 Tusa 1757 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 53 More Hearts Than Mine 1740 54 Blueberry Faygo 1722 55 BEST ON EARTH 1714
Week 28 (53.85%) 52 Even Though I'm Leaving 1802 53 Tusa 1757 54 More Hearts Than Mine 1740 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 55 BEST ON EARTH 1714 56 Kinfolks 1710 57 Chasin' You 1698
Week 29 (55.77%) 54 Tusa 1757 55 More Hearts Than Mine 1740 56 BEST ON EARTH 1714 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 57 Kinfolks 1710 58 I Don't Care 1612 59 Savage 1611
Week 30 (57.69%) 56 More Hearts Than Mine 1740 57 BEST ON EARTH 1714 58 Kinfolks 1710 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 59 I Don't Care 1612 60 I Hope You're Happy Now 1578 61 WHATS POPPIN 1574
Week 31 (59.62%)
58 Kinfolks 1710 59 WHATS POPPIN 1678 60 Catch 1642 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 61 Dior 1632 62 I Don't Care 1612 63 I Hope You're Happy Now 1578
PS: I removed Stupid Love from this calculation because I doubt it will have much of a chance to even make the 2020 year end list at this point.
PS: I also want to mention that if I added week 32, then I Don't Care would be the projected cutoff, which is just completely insane.
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lights
Charting
https://hot100reviews.home.blog/
Joined: August 2019
Posts: 397
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Post by lights on Apr 28, 2020 6:21:55 GMT -5
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