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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 21, 2020 10:42:10 GMT -5
^On the latter point. Radio already dropped it and I doubt sales and streaming will pick up for it anytime soon.
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atg
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Post by atg on May 21, 2020 11:57:35 GMT -5
The fact that circles and someone you loved are making the top 5 of this YE list shows that its best to release your mega hit around May-August
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 21, 2020 12:14:40 GMT -5
The fact that circles and someone you loved are making the top 5 of this YE list shows that its best to release your mega hit around May-August The other 3 would contradict that. But it's probably fair to say that these days a song has to spend at least 35 weeks in a Billboard year on the Hot 100 to make the year end top ten.
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GP
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Post by GP on May 21, 2020 12:18:40 GMT -5
Am I the only one seeing Blinding Lights possibly challenging both The Box and Circles?? I just see it being another big longevity benemoth. DSN and Say So rounding up the top5 would be the best top5 in a few good years
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 21, 2020 12:32:09 GMT -5
The fact that circles and someone you loved are making the top 5 of this YE list shows that its best to release your mega hit around May-August Someone You Loved was already a hit in the UK by the time it debuted in the Hot 100. It took a while for it to cross the pond.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on May 21, 2020 13:53:29 GMT -5
Am I the only one seeing Blinding Lights possibly challenging both The Box and Circles?? I just see it being another big longevity benemoth. DSN and Say So rounding up the top5 would be the best top5 in a few good years Not enough weeks left in the Billboard year to catch up, realistically, since the other songs are still charting strong. Could do so on the all-time chart, potentially, by say, Jan 2021 but the 52/25 rule will hurt because it charted for a couple of months before really taking off.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 21, 2020 14:03:55 GMT -5
Am I the only one seeing Blinding Lights possibly challenging both The Box and Circles?? I just see it being another big longevity benemoth. DSN and Say So rounding up the top5 would be the best top5 in a few good years The last really good top 5 was like 2011.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 21, 2020 14:15:37 GMT -5
I've been cheering for In your eyes, Dior, and level of concern a lot and it feels like they've all been having the same run... Honestly as long as Dior is able to reach 20 weeks it should have a shot at the YE
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atg
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Post by atg on May 21, 2020 15:52:38 GMT -5
I've been cheering for In your eyes, Dior, and level of concern a lot and it feels like they've all been having the same run... In Your Eyes is getting a Doja Cat remix so don't give up hope just yet Now out of the 3 In Your Eyes - Definitely possible if the remix helps it Dior - 50/50 Level Of Concern - Uncertain/too early to tell
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on May 21, 2020 16:03:52 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 27 (May 23, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING:
Post Malone - Circles (current: 10 [-2], peak: 1, weeks charting: 37) Weeks in top 10: 37 **NEW RECORD**
Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved (current: 18 [=], peak: 1, weeks charting: 53) Weeks in top 10: 27
OUT THIS WEEK: None
ALL REPEATS: Post Malone - Circles Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved Chris Brown & Drake - No Guidance Shawn Mendes & Camilla Cabello - Senorita Billie Eilish - bad guy Shaed - Trampoline Lizzo - Truth Hurts Jonas Brothers - Only Human Lil Nas X - Panini
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2020 16:20:07 GMT -5
Here's the projected cutoff for the next 7 weeks assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut. Week 28 (53.85%)52 Slide 1819 53 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 54 Tusa 1755 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -55 Chasin' You 1751 56 Kinfolks 1714 57 BEST ON EARTH 1710 Week 29 (55.77%)54 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 55 Tusa 1755 56 I Hope You're Happy Now 1718 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
57 Kinfolks 1714 58 BEST ON EARTH 1710 59 More Hearts Than Mine 1651 Week 30 (57.69%)56 Stuck With U 1800 57 Tusa 1755 58 Kinfolks 1714 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
59 BEST ON EARTH 1710 60 More Hearts Than Mine 1651 61 I Don't Care 1615 Week 31 (59.62%)58 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 59 Tusa 1755 60 Roses 1724 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
61 Kinfolks 1714 62 BEST ON EARTH 1710 63 WHATS POPPIN 1701 Week 32 (61.54%)60 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 61 Tusa 1755 62 THE SCOTTS 1745 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
63 Kinfolks 1714 64 BEST ON EARTH 1710 65 Dior 1707 Week 33 (63.46%)61 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 62 Dior 1795 63 Before You Go 1767 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - -
64 Tusa 1755 65 Kinfolks 1714 66 BEST ON EARTH 1710
Week 34 (65.38%) 63 Slide 1819 64 Sunday Best 1819 65 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 66 Tusa 1755 67 Kinfolks 1714 68 BEST ON EARTH 1710
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spoons
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Post by spoons on May 22, 2020 13:10:40 GMT -5
Am I the only one seeing Blinding Lights possibly challenging both The Box and Circles?? I just see it being another big longevity benemoth. DSN and Say So rounding up the top5 would be the best top5 in a few good years The last really good top 5 was like 2011. 2015 was pretty solid.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 22, 2020 13:26:46 GMT -5
^ If #5 and #6 had switched I'd say it was legit good over just decent.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 23, 2020 0:38:00 GMT -5
what if Homesick ends up being the Rumor of this year where Lights has it way higher than anyone else does on their predictions list but his outlier of a prediction actually ends up being correct
also the fact that they’re both country and had very similar chart runs
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 2:58:02 GMT -5
I just noticed Lights and I have the same current position for Homesick at #42. The only noticable difference being that he has Hot above and Only Human below while I have Only Human above and Hot below.
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dremolus - solarpunk
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 23, 2020 6:56:06 GMT -5
Crazy that ROCKSTAR went to number one in the UK, New Zealand and Australia before either Canada or the US.
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lights
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Post by lights on May 23, 2020 7:33:25 GMT -5
Isnt that just because the other countries charts don't count radio?
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GP
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Post by GP on May 23, 2020 7:48:30 GMT -5
Isnt that just because the other countries charts don't count radio? I think it's that and also their radio is just way faster
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lurker2
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Post by lurker2 on May 23, 2020 8:37:37 GMT -5
And in Britain I’d bet the ACR helped.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on May 23, 2020 8:56:39 GMT -5
I just noticed Lights and I have the same current position for Homesick at #42. The only noticable difference being that he has Hot above and Only Human below while I have Only Human above and Hot below. Yeah, I've got it at 46 right now myself, just a little lower. My predictions say it'll be the lowest "safe" song, with a predicted Year-end position of 84.
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GP
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Post by GP on May 23, 2020 10:09:56 GMT -5
And in Britain I’d bet the ACR helped. Yup yup, the week ROCKSTAR went #1, huge hits like Blinding Lights, Don't Start Now, Physical, Roses and more all went into ACR.
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dann
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Post by dann on May 23, 2020 10:58:55 GMT -5
Apparently the high turnover of 2020 is favoring the stable singles of 2019.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2020 11:13:50 GMT -5
I just noticed Lights and I have the same current position for Homesick at #42. The only noticable difference being that he has Hot above and Only Human below while I have Only Human above and Hot below. Yeah, I've got it at 46 right now myself, just a little lower. My predictions say it'll be the lowest "safe" song, with a predicted Year-end position of 84. My lowest locked song is Bandit, which at this point is probably too high for a locked cutoff. I would move the locked cutoff to 1900 points but that would mean Juicy is locked, and I'm not too sure if that is the case. Also I feel there is a very slight chance Billboard might remove All I Want For Christmas Is You since it is pretty much guaranteed to make every year end list from now on.
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Post by The Music Guy in the Group on May 23, 2020 11:24:03 GMT -5
Also I feel there is a very slight chance Billboard might remove All I Want For Christmas Is You since it is pretty much guaranteed to make every year end list from now on. It'll most likely make the year end for 2020 and then will no longer be counted.
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Post by nathanalbright on May 23, 2020 13:41:48 GMT -5
Also I feel there is a very slight chance Billboard might remove All I Want For Christmas Is You since it is pretty much guaranteed to make every year end list from now on. It'll most likely make the year end for 2020 and then will no longer be counted. I guess we'll see how this goes. I'm pretty sure it will count for this year though.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on May 23, 2020 17:16:49 GMT -5
Yeah, I've got it at 46 right now myself, just a little lower. My predictions say it'll be the lowest "safe" song, with a predicted Year-end position of 84. My lowest locked song is Bandit, which at this point is probably too high for a locked cutoff. I would move the locked cutoff to 1900 points but that would mean Juicy is locked, and I'm not too sure if that is the case. Also I feel there is a very slight chance Billboard might remove All I Want For Christmas Is You since it is pretty much guaranteed to make every year end list from now on. Juicy's actually the very next song below Homesick for me, so I'd consider it in the "dark gray" zone, I'd say it has a pretty decent chance. As for AIWFCIY, I'm not sure how they'll handle it. I'd think it would be hilarious if they just rolled with it this year and put it on the Year-End just to kinda honour its legacy. It might not even be that big in future years, considering it got an especially big push this year for its 25th anniversary.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 23, 2020 18:54:02 GMT -5
Also I feel there is a very slight chance Billboard might remove All I Want For Christmas Is You since it is pretty much guaranteed to make every year end list from now on. It'll most likely make the year end for 2020 and then will no longer be counted. I really feel like we're overestimating the amount of fucks billboard gives
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tgcxavier
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Post by tgcxavier on May 23, 2020 23:39:55 GMT -5
It feels like other country's charts move faster than the US's does...
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Post by Limited Edition on May 24, 2020 11:39:44 GMT -5
The Box is getting big losses on radio. Could it miss out on the year-end #1?
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 24, 2020 11:59:39 GMT -5
The fact that circles and someone you loved are making the top 5 of this YE list shows that its best to release your mega hit around May-August The other 3 would contradict that. But it's probably fair to say that these days a song has to spend at least 35 weeks in a Billboard year on the Hot 100 to make the year end top ten. Yeah, hence May-August is probably the worst time to release for mega hits because the points would most likely be split between years. Logistically, unless a song takes a really long time to build and/or has extremely good longevity (such as SYL and Circles) a release roughly around the start of the tracking period in mid-November (plus or minus a couple months) would yield the best results. It's also nowhere near guaranteed or even likely that SYL will make the top 5.
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