dremolus - solarpunk
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Best In This Chaotic Hell with the best taste
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Post by dremolus - solarpunk on May 24, 2020 12:23:13 GMT -5
The other 3 would contradict that. But it's probably fair to say that these days a song has to spend at least 35 weeks in a Billboard year on the Hot 100 to make the year end top ten. Yeah, hence May-August is probably the worst time to release for mega hits because the points would most likely be split between years. Logistically, unless a song takes a really long time to build and/or has extremely good longevity (such as SYL and Circles) a release roughly around the start of the tracking period in mid-November (plus or minus a couple months) would yield the best results. It's also nowhere near guaranteed or even likely that SYL will make the top 5. I think August-September is worse. Songs released in May-June still have a change to get 20 weeks in the chart year whereas August-September, most songs, as you said, have their runs cut in half. October as well is dicey as you could get caught in between years, or you could barely get enough points to make the bottom of next year's list (Hot, Bandit, Juicy)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2020 12:42:38 GMT -5
The Box is getting big losses on radio. Could it miss out on the year-end #1? The Box can still get #1 on the 2020 year end list, but since it's no longer guaranteed, it must rely on a few factors to get there:
1) Its radio numbers cannot continue to bleed this hard for this long. It would have to eventually level out somewhere.
2) Its streaming numbers must stay consistent so it doesn't drop further on the charts even with its diminishing radio support.
3) Blinding Lights and Circles, the only real competitors it has for that #1 spot, cannot have any further longevity on the charts.
Being pretty conservative myself, I still think The Box will get #1. However with every day passing, I might say Blinding Lights or Circles instead.
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Post by nathanalbright on May 24, 2020 14:06:20 GMT -5
The Box is getting big losses on radio. Could it miss out on the year-end #1? The Box can still get #1 on the 2020 year end list, but since it's no longer guaranteed, it must rely on a few factors to get there:
1) Its radio numbers cannot continue to bleed this hard for this long. It would have to eventually level out somewhere.
2) Its streaming numbers must stay consistent so it doesn't drop further on the charts even with its diminishing radio support.
3) Blinding Lights and Circles, the only real competitors it has for that #1 spot, cannot have any further longevity on the charts.
Being pretty conservative myself, I still think The Box will get #1. However with every day passing, I might say Blinding Lights or Circles instead.
Longevity is the key at this point, yes, especially given how long some songs are hanging around.
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GP
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Post by GP on May 24, 2020 17:46:24 GMT -5
The Box can still get #1 on the 2020 year end list, but since it's no longer guaranteed, it must rely on a few factors to get there:
1) Its radio numbers cannot continue to bleed this hard for this long. It would have to eventually level out somewhere.
2) Its streaming numbers must stay consistent so it doesn't drop further on the charts even with its diminishing radio support.
3) Blinding Lights and Circles, the only real competitors it has for that #1 spot, cannot have any further longevity on the charts.
Being pretty conservative myself, I still think The Box will get #1. However with every day passing, I might say Blinding Lights or Circles instead.
Longevity is the key at this point, yes, especially given how long some songs are hanging around. Let's see how June changes things up..maybe ROCKSTAR's ascension boosts The Box slowly....still around June the picture will be clearer especially if Circles keeps being in the top10 (predicted for #9)
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on May 24, 2020 19:34:38 GMT -5
nothing in this life is certain but death, taxes & spicy changing his formula
1. Circles 868,187 2. The Box 813,115 3. Someone You Loved 668,753 4. Memories - 652,308 5. Don't Start Now - 611,976 6. Blinding Lights - 599,312 7. Roxanne - 564,722 8. Life Is Good - 560,962 9. Dance Monkey - 534,534 10. Everything I Wanted - 474,467 11. 10,000 Hours - 470,278 12. Ballin' - 427,937 13. Adore You - 410,492 14. Heartless - 403,829 15. Good As Hell - 398,371 16. The Bones - 393,999 17. Lose You To Love Me - 386,515 18. Bop - 384,882 19. Hot Girl Bummer - 381,394 20. No Guidance - 355,363 21. Say So - 348,641 22. My Oh My - 322,764 23. Falling - 317,810 24. Intentions - 310,495 25. Señorita - 285,628 26. Woah - 283,900 27. Highest In The Room - 263,978 28. Heart On Ice - 258,264 29. High Fashion - 256,457 30. RITMO - 246,106 31. Bad Guy - 243,830 32. I Hope - 230,393 33. Trampoline - 227,901 34. Truth Hurts - 221,242 35. Yummy - 218,227 36. Toosie Slide - 210,945 37. Godzilla - 210,391 38. All I Want For Christmas Is You - 202,632 39. One Man Band - 200,421 40. Suicidal - 197,073 41. Nobody But You - 192,706 42. You Should Be Sad - 191,684 43. Savage - 191,200 44. Bandit - 187,075 45. Sum 2 Prove - 185,149 46. Panini - 185,059 47. Only Human - 182,126 48. Homesick - 181,787 49. Hot - 179,505 50. Blueberry Faygo - 178,114 51. Slide - 172,379 52. Juicy - 168,576 53. Even Though I'm Leaving - 164,874 54. More Hearts Than Mine - 163,293 55. Chasin' You - 163,246 56. Tusa - 163,192 57. Best On Earth - 162,109
PROJECTED CUTOFF - 160K POINTS
58. Kinfolks - 153,384 59. I Hope You're Happy Now - 149,335 60. I Don't Care - 147,887 61. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - 147,835 62. Ridin' Roads - 137,912 63. Out West - 137,812 64. Slow Dance In a Parking Lot - 137,400 65. Whats Poppin - 128,899 66. P*$$y Fairy - 127,319 67. What A Man Gotta Do - 124,237 68. Catch - 123,998 69. Dior - 123,696 70. Stupid Love - 123,689 71. What She Wants Tonight - 123,046 72. Sucker - 122,978 73. Lover - 122,130 74. Vete - 121,625 75. Homemade - 119,641 76. Graveyard - 118,760 77. Old Town Road - 117,702 78. Futsal Shuffle 2020 - 117,269 79. Heartache Medication - 116,944 80. Vibez - 116,634 81. Before You Go - 114,160 82. On Chill - 111,138 83. We Back - 107,980 84. Roses - 107,957 85. Sunday Best - 105,030 86. A Holly Jolly Christmas - 104,020 87. I Love Me - 103,820 88. Death Bed - 103,024 89. Ran$om - 100,852
TRACKING CUTOFF - 100K POINTS
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 25, 2020 11:49:51 GMT -5
Where do you guys think Sunday Best will peak and do you think it will make the year-end list?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2020 12:17:24 GMT -5
Where do you guys think Sunday Best will peak and do you think it will make the year-end list? I think it's pretty likely that it makes the 2020 year end list. As for where it peaks, I'm going to say it just makes the top 20 on the weekly chart.
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Post by The Music Guy in the Group on May 25, 2020 14:06:14 GMT -5
nothing in this life is certain but death, taxes & spicy changing his formula Still kind of wish you showed how many spots a song jumped. Still a nice change.
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Post by waluigionascooter on May 25, 2020 17:53:31 GMT -5
How soon do you think we'll see another cursed song...
The song that hits #1 but completely misses the Year End list.
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 25, 2020 18:14:30 GMT -5
Something that was brought up in the General Discussion thread is that if The Box does end up as the year-end #1, it would be the first such song to miss the weekly top 5 of BOTH the radio chart and the sales chart (Digital Song Sales/Hot 100 Single Sales, whichever was the main sales chart at the time) ever since Nielsen began tracking this info in 1991. It's also seems unlikely it will make the top 20 of either the radio or digital year-end charts. Thus, it would be the first year-end #1 overwhelmingly driven by streaming and a testament to the fact that this is definitely the most prominent form of music consumption now.
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85la
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Post by 85la on May 25, 2020 18:16:22 GMT -5
How soon do you think we'll see another cursed song... The song that hits #1 but completely misses the Year End list. Possibly this year, given the high turnover rate and record drops. Maybe Stuck With U?....
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on May 25, 2020 20:47:35 GMT -5
Where do you guys think Sunday Best will peak and do you think it will make the year-end list? I think it's pretty likely that it makes the 2020 year end list. As for where it peaks, I'm going to say it just makes the top 20 on the weekly chart. Any chance it breaks into the top 10?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2020 21:04:14 GMT -5
I think it's pretty likely that it makes the 2020 year end list. As for where it peaks, I'm going to say it just makes the top 20 on the weekly chart. Any chance it breaks into the top 10? I personally don't think it will, but it isn't impossible.
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lights
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Post by lights on May 26, 2020 7:49:00 GMT -5
How soon do you think we'll see another cursed song... The song that hits #1 but completely misses the Year End list. Stuck with u has a chance. I know it's extremely early but Rain on me seems like another #1 then tank. I think they'll probably both scrape onto the year-end but we're definitely getting closer.
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GP
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Post by GP on May 26, 2020 8:55:13 GMT -5
How soon do you think we'll see another cursed song... The song that hits #1 but completely misses the Year End list. Stuck with u has a chance. I know it's extremely early but Rain on me seems like another #1 then tank. I think they'll probably both scrape onto the year-end but we're definitely getting closer. Rain On Me will also have an album boost that SWU won't...if any doesn't make it, I would say SWU
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lights
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Post by lights on May 26, 2020 9:06:34 GMT -5
Songs like P*ssy fairy and Out West that were relying on staying 21+ weeks to lock for the year-end chart have started dropping on radio. Looks like both will now drop out just short, although still in with a chance.
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velaxti
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Post by velaxti on May 26, 2020 10:45:22 GMT -5
How soon do you think we'll see another cursed song... The song that hits #1 but completely misses the Year End list. Possibly this year, given the high turnover rate and record drops. Maybe Stuck With U?.... I think Stuck With U will still at least chart for 20 weeks, and even if its just in the top 50 for a month and in the lower half the rest of the time, that will surely be enough. The way I see it, a song like El Perdon got in with charting about 30 weeks never getting higher than about 60 (can't remember the exact numbers, but it's not so important for the point I'm making), and Stuck With U's week at #1 counts about the same as say 5 weeks at #80 (again don't know the exact numbers, but hopefully you get my reasoning).
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spicymapping
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ahoe s2e11 out now
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Post by spicymapping on May 26, 2020 13:11:34 GMT -5
nothing in this life is certain but death, taxes & spicy changing his formula Still kind of wish you showed how many spots a song jumped. Still a nice change. would have been basically meaningless since i changed the formula but i'll get back to that next week
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 26, 2020 14:13:39 GMT -5
Songs like P*ssy fairy and Out West that were relying on staying 21+ weeks to lock for the year-end chart have started dropping on radio. Looks like both will now drop out just short, although still in with a chance. Thank god neither song is good at all
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 26, 2020 16:39:06 GMT -5
Songs like P*ssy fairy and Out West that were relying on staying 21+ weeks to lock for the year-end chart have started dropping on radio. Looks like both will now drop out just short, although still in with a chance. I wanted Out West to make it is there any chance even slightly that it makes it to 20 weeks and if so can it still make the YE (though I know the chances will be very very low)
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lights
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Post by lights on May 26, 2020 17:28:40 GMT -5
Songs like P*ssy fairy and Out West that were relying on staying 21+ weeks to lock for the year-end chart have started dropping on radio. Looks like both will now drop out just short, although still in with a chance. I wanted Out West to make it is there any chance even slightly that it makes it to 20 weeks and if so can it still make the YE (though I know the chances will be very very low) Yeah it should still make 20 weeks, which would have it drop out near Kinfolks on my predictions (outside chance)
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 26, 2020 17:39:46 GMT -5
I wanted Out West to make it is there any chance even slightly that it makes it to 20 weeks and if so can it still make the YE (though I know the chances will be very very low) Yeah it should still make 20 weeks, which would have it drop out near Kinfolks on my predictions (outside chance) ok if Out West making it means Kinfolks is gonna make it too then maybe I could do without Out West making it, it's far from my favorite Travis/Thugger collaboration anyway
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 17:44:39 GMT -5
Do you guys think Circles' Top 10 record is unbreakable?
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 26, 2020 17:45:46 GMT -5
Do you guys think Circles' Top 10 record is unbreakable? for now it may seem like it but we never know what will happen in the future, I bet chart watchers in 1998 thought nothing could beat How Do I Live
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2020 17:51:12 GMT -5
Do you guys think Circles' Top 10 record is unbreakable? for now it may seem like it but we never know what will happen in the future, I bet chart watchers in 1998 thought nothing could beat How Do I Live I understand, but... 38 weeks and counting is just ridiculous. I can imagine that this is how Baseball fans in 1941 felt as they watched Joe DiMaggio smash the hitting streak record.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on May 26, 2020 19:39:16 GMT -5
^Hard, yes. But I wouldn't think impossible as Radioactive's record is because of Hot 100 rule changes. If the current rules remain, it might take a while, but Circles' record is not untouchable.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on May 26, 2020 23:36:37 GMT -5
If AIWFCIY gets 4 weeks in the top 10 each year from now on it will hit 40 weeks by 2028
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on May 26, 2020 23:43:38 GMT -5
yeah Radioactive's record will basically be impossible to beat
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tgcxavier
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Post by tgcxavier on May 26, 2020 23:45:48 GMT -5
I hope circles lasts 40 weeks in the top 10
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Post by xtynaaguilera99 on May 27, 2020 6:01:32 GMT -5
nothing in this life is certain but death, taxes & spicy changing his formula 1. Circles 868,187 2. The Box 813,115 3. Someone You Loved 668,753 4. Memories - 652,308 5. Don't Start Now - 611,976 6. Blinding Lights - 599,312 7. Roxanne - 564,722 8. Life Is Good - 560,962 9. Dance Monkey - 534,534 10. Everything I Wanted - 474,467 11. 10,000 Hours - 470,278 12. Ballin' - 427,937 13. Adore You - 410,492 14. Heartless - 403,829 15. Good As Hell - 398,371 16. The Bones - 393,999 17. Lose You To Love Me - 386,515 18. Bop - 384,882 19. Hot Girl Bummer - 381,394 20. No Guidance - 355,363 21. Say So - 348,641 22. My Oh My - 322,764 23. Falling - 317,810 24. Intentions - 310,495 25. Señorita - 285,628 26. Woah - 283,900 27. Highest In The Room - 263,978 28. Heart On Ice - 258,264 29. High Fashion - 256,457 30. RITMO - 246,106 31. Bad Guy - 243,830 32. I Hope - 230,393 33. Trampoline - 227,901 34. Truth Hurts - 221,242 35. Yummy - 218,227 36. Toosie Slide - 210,945 37. Godzilla - 210,391 38. All I Want For Christmas Is You - 202,632 39. One Man Band - 200,421 40. Suicidal - 197,073 41. Nobody But You - 192,706 42. You Should Be Sad - 191,684 43. Savage - 191,200 44. Bandit - 187,075 45. Sum 2 Prove - 185,149 46. Panini - 185,059 47. Only Human - 182,126 48. Homesick - 181,787 49. Hot - 179,505 50. Blueberry Faygo - 178,114 51. Slide - 172,379 52. Juicy - 168,576 53. Even Though I'm Leaving - 164,874 54. More Hearts Than Mine - 163,293 55. Chasin' You - 163,246 56. Tusa - 163,192 57. Best On Earth - 162,109 PROJECTED CUTOFF - 160K POINTS
58. Kinfolks - 153,384 59. I Hope You're Happy Now - 149,335 60. I Don't Care - 147,887 61. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - 147,835 62. Ridin' Roads - 137,912 63. Out West - 137,812 64. Slow Dance In a Parking Lot - 137,400 65. Whats Poppin - 128,899 66. P*$$y Fairy - 127,319 67. What A Man Gotta Do - 124,237 68. Catch - 123,998 69. Dior - 123,696 70. Stupid Love - 123,689 71. What She Wants Tonight - 123,046 72. Sucker - 122,978 73. Lover - 122,130 74. Vete - 121,625 75. Homemade - 119,641 76. Graveyard - 118,760 77. Old Town Road - 117,702 78. Futsal Shuffle 2020 - 117,269 79. Heartache Medication - 116,944 80. Vibez - 116,634 81. Before You Go - 114,160 82. On Chill - 111,138 83. We Back - 107,980 84. Roses - 107,957 85. Sunday Best - 105,030 86. A Holly Jolly Christmas - 104,020 87. I Love Me - 103,820 88. Death Bed - 103,024 89. Ran$om - 100,852 TRACKING CUTOFF - 100K POINTSis this an update from this week (Savage being No. 1)?
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