Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2020 23:07:55 GMT -5
Hoping Emotionally Scarred can sneak in, one of the best songs on the album tbh, shoulda been a hit
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jun 4, 2020 1:14:56 GMT -5
Good news is Someone You Loved should miss the top 10. It would've comfortably missed last year's top 10 and will be passed probably by Say So, Adore You, (sadly) Memories, Life Is Good, The Bones, and at least 1 of Savage or Rockstar and that'd push it out of the top 10! Yup. As you see in my chart, it's currently predicted to be #17. Even looking at the current chart, it's #5 with 9 songs so far predicted to pass it (all the ones you mentioned, plus Intentions (again, sadly) and Toosie Slide). With Drake most likely getting another song that'll pass it once he drops his summer album. And then there was one... Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 29 (June 6, 2020) CURRENTLY CHARTING:
Post Malone - Circles (current: 11[-1], peak: 1, weeks charting: 38) Weeks in top 10: 38 *RECORD*OUT THIS WEEK: Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved (peak: 1, total weeks charted: 54, total weeks in top 10: 27) ALL REPEATS:Post Malone - Circles Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved Chris Brown & Drake - No Guidance Shawn Mendes & Camilla Cabello - Senorita Billie Eilish - bad guy Shaed - Trampoline Lizzo - Truth Hurts Jonas Brothers - Only Human Lil Nas X - Panini I Don't Care as a possibility? My cutoff for the "Bubbling Under" (aka the songs below the cutoff that are within my margin of error) is somewhat deliberately placed right above I Don't Care because I refuse to acknowledge it as a 2020 hit (well, that and because it led to a 15,000 point margin which I think is a nice number to use). Also, turns out I forgot to include the new songs of this week, including the new number 1, in my calculations. So yeah, I'll be adding Rain On Me in its proper place. Everyone pretend it was always there next week, thanks.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Jun 4, 2020 21:09:16 GMT -5
Hoping Emotionally Scarred can sneak in, one of the best songs on the album tbh, shoulda been a hit I think it will make the year-end honestly
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jun 4, 2020 21:35:49 GMT -5
Hoping Emotionally Scarred can sneak in, one of the best songs on the album tbh, shoulda been a hit I think it will make the year-end honestly Lil Baby's been absolutely killing it this year. Not a huge fan or anything but I'm impressed, good for him
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Jun 5, 2020 15:07:00 GMT -5
I think it will make the year-end honestly Lil Baby's been absolutely killing it this year. Not a huge fan or anything but I'm impressed, good for him Personally there was a period of time last year where I really really liked him but he’s sort of cooled of on me since. Regardless, he seems like a cool guy and I’d say his success is a net positive
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jun 5, 2020 15:24:19 GMT -5
Lil Baby's been absolutely killing it this year. Not a huge fan or anything but I'm impressed, good for him Personally there was a period of time last year where I really really liked him but he’s sort of cooled of on me since. Regardless, he seems like a cool guy and I’d say his success is a net positive He got some bangers but a lot of his music sounds the same and it gets boring fast
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Jun 5, 2020 15:46:28 GMT -5
Personally there was a period of time last year where I really really liked him but he’s sort of cooled of on me since. Regardless, he seems like a cool guy and I’d say his success is a net positive He got some bangers but a lot of his music sounds the same and it gets boring fast i think i was duped into thinking i loved him more than i actually do because of Drip Too Hard and Freestyle, two absolutely transcendent songs that unfortunately he has never been able to reach the heights of since
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jun 5, 2020 17:33:45 GMT -5
Coulda sworn I'd already posted this, but here's my most up-to-date predictions, using the chart of June 6, 2020.
With SYL falling off the Hot 100 (52/25 rule) despite being #20 last week, there's suddenly a spat of songs that could get the bronze in the year end. Memories could temporarily get to #3 if it can stay on the Hot 100 another 2 weeks, but Don't Start Now and/or Blinding Lights could eventually get there. I suspect The Weeknd will end up #3 for the year when all points are counted.
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GPMB
Gold Member
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Post by GPMB on Jun 5, 2020 19:25:51 GMT -5
Coulda sworn I'd already posted this, but here's my most up-to-date predictions, using the chart of June 6, 2020. ok not to be rude but how do you have Ridin' Roads above Slide and VIBEZ above BEST ON EARTH
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jun 6, 2020 2:17:37 GMT -5
I just realized how Billboard is using the cutoffs now. Between using 11/24 as the first week of 2019 and 11/23 as the first date of 2020, they’re using 11/20 as the cutoff. Which means 2022 will be a 53 week year, with 11/19/2022 as the last week of that chart year and 11/26/2022 as the first of 2023.
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mikerivera
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Post by mikerivera on Jun 6, 2020 2:19:34 GMT -5
Sorry if someone else has already noticed this btw, but I thought I would post it just in case
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Post by LegendaryLover on Jun 6, 2020 13:02:43 GMT -5
Is it too early to start placing bets on who's taking the YE #1? The Box? Blinding Lights? Circles?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 15:23:20 GMT -5
Is it too early to start placing bets on who's taking the YE #1? The Box? Blinding Lights? Circles? If I had a hundred bucks to bet, I would put 50 on The Box, 35 on Circles and 15 on Blinding Lights.
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iHype.
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Post by iHype. on Jun 6, 2020 15:29:43 GMT -5
Jeez, with the whole radio numbers being heavily decreased and streaming lower than usual these past months the Year-End is probably gonna have notably more Q1 2020 + 2019 hits making it.
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starlord
Charting
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Posts: 391
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Post by starlord on Jun 6, 2020 15:54:49 GMT -5
Is it too early to start placing bets on who's taking the YE #1? The Box? Blinding Lights? Circles? With 22 weeks still to go, Blinding Lights is the one that's gonna make it beyond Sept/Oct, the box is falling hard on radio. Mine are Blinding Lights The box Circles Or I am just being baised for The Weeknd here. :'(
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owenlovesmusic
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Post by owenlovesmusic on Jun 6, 2020 19:22:56 GMT -5
Hoping Emotionally Scarred can sneak in, one of the best songs on the album tbh, shoulda been a hit That whole album had hits! The deluxe too.
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HeyHeyHey
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Post by HeyHeyHey on Jun 6, 2020 20:31:54 GMT -5
I really like all 3 songs that as of now are in contention for the Year End #1. I’m not even sure which one feels like it should be #1. I lean a little towards BL in terms of what feels the most popular this year but none would be disappointments.
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artistry
Charting
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Post by artistry on Jun 6, 2020 21:48:15 GMT -5
Where is Supalonely by Benee currently ranked? How many more weeks before it hits the top 100?
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jun 7, 2020 12:38:59 GMT -5
Was this the first time Circles was out of top 10 all year?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 13:33:25 GMT -5
Was this the first time Circles was out of top 10 all year? more like ever lol
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jun 7, 2020 15:37:50 GMT -5
I just realized how Billboard is using the cutoffs now. Between using 11/24 as the first week of 2019 and 11/23 as the first date of 2020, they’re using 11/20 as the cutoff. Which means 2022 will be a 53 week year, with 11/19/2022 as the last week of that chart year and 11/26/2022 as the first of 2023. How can you be sure they haven't just committed to 52 weeks per year from now on? Meaning that by like 2100 the chart year would begin in July
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Post by waluigionascooter on Jun 7, 2020 17:12:39 GMT -5
Is it too early to start placing bets on who's taking the YE #1? The Box? Blinding Lights? Circles? I still at least 75% confident The Box will be #1. 11 weeks at #1 spot many of those weeks > 50,000 points, and should outlast Circles. Looks pretty similar to God's Plan 2 years ago. Circles and Blinding Lights are a very close race for #2 and 3.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jun 7, 2020 17:35:49 GMT -5
I just realized how Billboard is using the cutoffs now. Between using 11/24 as the first week of 2019 and 11/23 as the first date of 2020, they’re using 11/20 as the cutoff. Which means 2022 will be a 53 week year, with 11/19/2022 as the last week of that chart year and 11/26/2022 as the first of 2023. How can you be sure they haven't just committed to 52 weeks per year from now on? Meaning that by like 2100 the chart year would begin in July Eventually, they would have to have a 53 week year, due to to leap year adding an extra day every year. Otherwise, the start of the chart year would end up shifted further back into November.
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Jun 7, 2020 20:09:39 GMT -5
Is it too early to start placing bets on who's taking the YE #1? The Box? Blinding Lights? Circles? If I had a hundred bucks to bet, I would put 50 on The Box, 35 on Circles and 15 on Blinding Lights. oh uhh these tweets reminded me of a dream I had last night where Circles suddenly dropped out of the Hot 100 due to dropping out of the top 10, in a similar way to the recurrency rules on the composite genre charts (mainly the country charts), and in the dream I was disappointed because it would only barely make YE top 10 yes i have dreams about billboard charts, my life is that pathetic
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inverse
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Your mind is in disturbia...
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Post by inverse on Jun 7, 2020 21:31:23 GMT -5
^ Literally same wtf I had one in 2016 where Break Up In A Small Town recharted at #21 in the middle of the year and when I woke up I was so relieved when I realized it was a dream and then immediately after was just like "How does something like that even come up in a dream"
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Jun 7, 2020 22:25:10 GMT -5
on the topic of tracking year cutoffs, I haven't completely ruled out the possibility that 2020 will be a 53-week year
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2020 23:44:32 GMT -5
on the topic of tracking year cutoffs, I haven't completely ruled out the possibility that 2020 will be a 53-week year I think they should do 53 week years for the next few years in order to get the Billboard Year in line with the Calendar Year.
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Post by phieaglesfan712 on Jun 8, 2020 13:16:28 GMT -5
Is it too early to start placing bets on who's taking the YE #1? The Box? Blinding Lights? Circles? With 22 weeks still to go, Blinding Lights is the one that's gonna make it beyond Sept/Oct, the box is falling hard on radio. Mine are Blinding Lights The box Circles Or I am just being baised for The Weeknd here. This race reminds me a lot of 2014. What an exciting race between AOM, Happy, and Dark Horse. Just like in 2014, we already know what the YE Top 3 songs are going to be at this point in the year, maybe not quite the exact order.
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
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Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jun 9, 2020 2:46:56 GMT -5
Where is Supalonely by Benee currently ranked? How many more weeks before it hits the top 100? Right now, I have Supalonely at 108 with 91,000 points. For it to be locked for the Year-End, I'd say it has to last the full 20 weeks and remain relatively stable. If it manages to make some modest gains, it might get there earlier.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Jun 9, 2020 3:37:39 GMT -5
Week 30/52 (57.7%) Formula: Paid/1250 + Free/1875 + Programmed/2500 + Radio/6000 + Sales/5 Cutoff: 180,000 points (margin of error +/- 7.5%.. 193.5k - 166.5k) Locked this week: I Hope You're Happy Now, ROCKSTAR
Top 10: 1 Rockstar 30,880 2 Savage 30,400 3 Blinding Lights 29,190 4 Say So 25,593 5 Rain On Me 22,933 6 Toosie Slide 22,660 7 Don't Start Now 20,933 8 Intentions 20,457 9 The Box 19,710 10 Roses 18,280
LW TW ARTIST - SONG POINTS 1 1 Roddy Ricch - The Box 986,913 2 2 Post Malone - Circles 880,888 4 3 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 712,726 5 4 Maroon 5 - Memories 689,763 6 5 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 689,400 3 6 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 687,824 8 7 Tones & I - Dance Monkey 607,577 7 8 Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 607,066 9 9 Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good 603,653 10 10 Billie Eilish - everything I wanted 543,877
11 11 Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 514,214 13 12 Harry Styles - Adore You 488,987 12 13 Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin' 482,049 14 14 Maren Morris - The Bones 481,699 17 15 Doja Cat - Say So 448,760 15 16 blackbear - hot girl bummer 448,082 16 17 The Weeknd - Heartless 429,139 18 18 DaBaby - BOP 422,522 19 19 Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 419,549 20 20 Lizzo - Good As Hell 417,347
22 21 Trevor Daniel - Falling 402,534 21 22 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 394,567 23 23 Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My 384,498 24 24 Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions 370,128 25 25 Lil Baby - Woah 326,090 27 26 Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion 324,789 26 27 Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita 312,452 33 28 Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce - Savage 307,203 28 29 Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 299,713 32 30 Gabby Barret - I Hope 294,388
29 31 The Black Eyed Peas, J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 290,785 34 32 Drake - Toosie Slide 287,106 30 33 Billie Eilish - bad guy 281,570 31 34 Rod Wave - Heart on Ice 280,382 35 35 SHAED - Trampoline 263,181 36 36 Lizzo - Truth Hurts 250,374 40 37 Blake Shelton, Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You 243,978 39 38 Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla 239,643 41 39 Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 239,457 37 40 Justin Bieber - Yummy 236,514
38 41 Old Dominion - One Man Band 234,953 42 42 Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove 221,962 43 43 Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit 221,407 44 44 YNW Melly, Juice WRLD - Suicidal 218,732 50 45 Morgan Wallen - Chasin You 218,686 45 46 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You 215,136 46 47 Lil Nas X - Panini 213,292 47 48 Jonas Brothers - Only Human 211,437 48 49 Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot 210,716 49 50 Halsey - You should be sad 207,971
51 51 Kane Brown - Homesick 198,405 52 52 Doja Cat, Tyga - Juicy 195,710 53 53 Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving 190,503 58 54 Carly Pearce, Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now 185,299 54 55 H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide 185,016 63 56 DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR 183,289 61 57 Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN 176,677 55 58 Karol G, Nicki Minaj - Tusa 174,612 56 59 Russ ft. BIA - BEST ON EARTH 173,766 57 60 Sam Hunt - Kinfolks 173,605
59 61 Ed Sheeran ft. Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 169,521 60 62 Ingrid Andress - More Hearts than Mine 169,433 65 63 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 168,502 62 64 JACKBOYS ft. Young Thug - OUT WEST 163,334 67 65 Pop Smoke - Dior 156,865 71 66 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 153,745 75 67 Surfaces - Sunday Best 151,801 64 68 Brenda Lee - Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 151,172 68 69 Jhene Aiko - P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW) 150,888 66 70 Dustin Lynch - Ridin Roads 149,712
77 71 Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed 147,426 69 72 Taylor Swift - Lover 143,226 70 73 Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road 141,402 72 74 Halsey - Graveyard 140,614 73 75 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 140,428 74 76 Jordan Davis - Slow Dancing in a Parking Lot 138,271 83 77 Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 137,837 86 78 Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does to Me 136,881 76 79 Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 135,405 78 80 Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication 133,115
90 81 THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott, Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS 132,186 79 82 Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill 132,032 80 83 Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 131,481 81 84 DaBaby - VIBEZ 131,133 82 85 Luke Bryan - What She Wants Tonight 127,853 84 86 Bad Bunny - Vete 127,550 92 87 Diplo, Morgan Wallen - Heartless 127,494 85 88 Brett Young - Catch 126,860 87 89 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 123,221 96 90 Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 122,144
88 91 Jake Owen - Homemade 121,691 89 92 Lil Tecca - Ran$om 121,004 98 93 Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - Beer Can't Fix 117,900 91 94 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 117,281 99 95 The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 115,907 93 96 Summer Walker ft. Bryson Tiller - Playing Games 114,654 94 97 Jason Aldean - We Back 113,152 95 98 Chris Brown ft. Gunna - Heat 110,796 101 99 Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred 110,740 97 100 Demi Lovato - I Love Me 108,954
105 101 BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely 108,548 100 102 Andy Williams - It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year 102,565 112 103 Sam Hunt - Hard to Forget 102,091 114 104 Travis Denning - After a Few 100,727 102 105 Lady Antebellum - What If I Never Get Over You 100,651 103 106 Don Toliver - No Idea 100,322 104 107 Ed Sheeran ft. Khalid - Beautiful People 99,848 106 108 YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Make No Sense 98,337 107 109 Idina Menzel & AURORA - Into the Unknown 98,075 123 110 Ariana Grande, Justin Bieber - stuck with u 97,989
121 113 NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down 93,829 118 115 Lil Uzi Vert - That Way 90,920 127 117 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 89,858 122 118 Bad Bunny - Yo Perreo Sola 89,661
133 124 6ix9ine - GOOBA 84,296 134 128 twenty one pilots - Level of Concern 80,034 136 130 PARTYNEXTDOOR ft. Rihanna - BELIEVE IT 78,076
135 132 NAV ft. Travis Scott, Gunna - Turks 76,456 150 138 Miranda Lambert - Bluebird 70,310 147 140 JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels - If the World Was Ending 69,159
145 141 Noah Cyrus ft. Leon Bridges - July 66,387 148 143 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - Grace 66,239 155 146 Juice WRLD - Righteous 63,302 166 147 StaySolidRocky - Party Girl 63,282 161 148 Kenny Chesney - Here and Now 63,232
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