Bakarina
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Post by Bakarina on Jul 2, 2020 5:14:27 GMT -5
Supalonely is having some decent longevity in the Top 50, I'm hoping it can stick around long enough to make it. That might have something to do with consistency in streaming and airplay even if it's very modest. I hope it made it into YE list we need more NZ representation on the chart
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Groovy
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Post by Groovy on Jul 2, 2020 10:28:21 GMT -5
Speaking of Supalonely, does anybody think it can crack into the top 10 or top 20?
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Dadude#0839
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Post by Dadude#0839 on Jul 2, 2020 11:32:21 GMT -5
Speaking of Supalonely, does anybody think it can crack into the top 10 or top 20? It won’t make top 10, top 20 yes if it pulls a Falling, i think it’ll make the year end though
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 2, 2020 11:36:21 GMT -5
^It was performed yesterday on The Ellen DeGeneres Show. If that doesn't give it a noticeable boost, I think it will be hard for it to even get to the top 30.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 2, 2020 15:00:56 GMT -5
My predictions inclusive of the July 4th, 2020 chart.
Blinding Lights climbs a point on its way to an eventual #3 for the year end, Billie Eilish overtakes Dance Monkey on what is likely its last week on the chart.
Justin Bieber joins Roddy Ricch & Drake as the only acts with 2 songs in the year-end top 20 at this point.
Trollz is at #173 for the year, and could well be the first #1 song not affected by cut-offs to fail to make the top 100 of the year. The Scotts looks now like it could squeak in.
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 2, 2020 15:41:33 GMT -5
Assuming that DaBaby does get credited for Whats Poppin he could become another artist with 2 songs in the top 20 eventually.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2020 21:01:26 GMT -5
So whats the likelihood of In Your Eyes possibly making the year end Seems very slim I'm guessing
How sad that it got robbed despite having good callouts on radio
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2020 21:06:41 GMT -5
So whats the likelihood of In Your Eyes possibly making the year end Seems very slim I'm guessing How sad that it got robbed despite having good callouts on radio Unless it somehow reaches 20 weeks on the chart, it will almost definitely miss. Even lasting a full 20 weeks might not be enough though.
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jul 2, 2020 21:52:03 GMT -5
^ I guess there's also a chance of Blinding Lights sticking around the top longer than both The Box/Circles and getting #1, but both of those tracks are probably too far a head. I think it'll be #3. the fact that the entire top3 might end up becoming a nailbitter until the end is a little stressful but so exciting for a YEC! At least the battle is between 3 great songs. Whoever wins out I won't be complaining
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GP
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Post by GP on Jul 3, 2020 7:33:18 GMT -5
the fact that the entire top3 might end up becoming a nailbitter until the end is a little stressful but so exciting for a YEC! At least the battle is between 3 great songs. Whoever wins out I won't be complaining Same here! 3 deserving #1s, but whoever ends up at #3 will be so bitter since they were all huge throughout the year
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2020 9:46:31 GMT -5
At least the battle is between 3 great songs. Whoever wins out I won't be complaining Same here! 3 deserving #1s, but whoever ends up at #3 will be so bitter since they were all huge throughout the year Feels a lot like the Top 3 songs in 2012 Somebody Like I Used To Know, Call Me Maybe, and We Are Young all felt huge that whole year, they all were #1 on the charts for a bunch of weeks at a time, and they all made an impact on the cultural consciousness. It really felt like any of them would've been deserving as the biggest hit of 2012
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Post by After Minutes on Jul 3, 2020 13:55:58 GMT -5
So the locks look like this i guess?
Top 3: The Box Blinding Lights Circles
Top 5: Don't Start Now
Top 10: Say So Savage Rockstar
Top 20: Memories Someone You Loved Dance Monkey Roxanne The Bones Life is Good Intentions Everything I Wanted Toosie Slide Falling
And if I had to guess, the other songs that will reach the top 20 are Roses, Whats Poppin and like Blueberry Faygo, Adore You or Watermelon Sugar
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 3, 2020 19:49:59 GMT -5
Same here! 3 deserving #1s, but whoever ends up at #3 will be so bitter since they were all huge throughout the year Feels a lot like the Top 3 songs in 2012 Somebody Like I Used To Know, Call Me Maybe, and We Are Young all felt huge that whole year, they all were #1 on the charts for a bunch of weeks at a time, and they all made an impact on the cultural consciousness. It really felt like any of them would've been deserving as the biggest hit of 2012 I think 2011 is a lot better of an example Firework, Party Rock Anthem and Rolling In The Deep are all enduring classics that left their mark on history for sure.
As much as I love Call Me Maybe it was undeniably huge but doesn't seem to have lasted on beyond 2012, and it's still held up better than the other two
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sirskimask
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Post by sirskimask on Jul 4, 2020 1:22:22 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 33 (July 4, 2020)
CURRENTLY CHARTING: Post Malone - Circles (current: 10[+3], peak: 1, weeks charting: 43) Weeks in top 10: 39 *RECORD* (!!!)
OUT THIS WEEK: None
ALL REPEATS: Post Malone - Circles Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved Chris Brown & Drake - No Guidance Shawn Mendes & Camilla Cabello - Senorita Billie Eilish - bad guy Shaed - Trampoline Lizzo - Truth Hurts Jonas Brothers - Only Human Lil Nas X - Panini
So basically, Circles week 40 incoming!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2020 2:19:40 GMT -5
Repeats from the 2019 Year-End List - Week 33 (July 4, 2020)CURRENTLY CHARTING:Post Malone - Circles (current: 10[+3], peak: 1, weeks charting: 43) Weeks in top 10: 39 *RECORD* (!!!)OUT THIS WEEK:None ALL REPEATS:Post Malone - Circles Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved Chris Brown & Drake - No Guidance Shawn Mendes & Camilla Cabello - Senorita Billie Eilish - bad guy Shaed - Trampoline Lizzo - Truth Hurts Jonas Brothers - Only Human Lil Nas X - Panini So basically, Circles week 40 incoming!! I hope Circles can manage to get a 40th and final week because 39 will trigger my OCD just like when OTR failed to get a 20th week at #1.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2020 5:11:39 GMT -5
Here's an in depth analysis about how the 2020 year end list is shaping up. Note this is based off of my opinion and my 2020 year end predictions.
There are currently 55 songs in my 2020 year end predictions that are locked (songs with over 1900 points). Here are all the songs that are not locked yet but are guaranteed to do so in the future.
1) Before You Go 2) Sunday Best 3) Death Bed 4) THE SCOTTS 5) Break My Heart 6) Watermelon Sugar 7) Hard To Forget 8) Rain On Me 9) Party Girl 10) We Paid
That means there will be at least 65 songs that will be locked in the future. Here's also a list of songs that are current charting and are likely to make the 2020 year end list, although not guaranteed to lock.
1) Dior 2) P*$$y Fairy 3) Stuck With U 4) Does To Me 5) Emotionally Scarred 6) Supalonely 7) Walk Em Down 8) Go Crazy 9) The Bigger Picture 10) Savage Love
And here's a list of songs that have already dropped out, are not locked, but still have a good chance to make the list (1800-1900 points).
1) Panini 2) Slide 3) Even Though I'm Leaving
That equals 78 songs that will likely make the 2020 year end list. Here are some songs that are charting, but are complete tossups in whether or not they will make the list in the future.
1) Bluebird 2) One Margarita 3) If The World Was Ending 4) Be Kind 5) GOOBA 6) TROLLZ
Here's a list of all songs that have dropped out, are not safe at all, but still have a toss up chance at making the list (1700-1800 points).
1) OUT WEST 2) Tusa 3) Kinfolks 4) BEST ON EARTH
Assuming all the toss up songs that are currently charting pass 1700 points, that equals to 88 songs that will make the 2020 year end list, assuming the final cutoff is 1700 points. Here's a list of songs that I think will likely just fall short of making it proper. Not saying they have no chance at all, but they're pretty slim. I personally think the former 3 will get between 1600-1700 points, Chicago Freestyle will get between 1500-1600 points, and the latter 2 will fall under 1500 points.
1) After A Few 2) Beer Can’t Fix 3) In Your Eyes 4) Chicago Freestyle
5) Yo Perreo Sola 6) Believe It
Assuming the first 4 songs listed above do make that minimum 1500 point threshold, they will be put into a category of dropped out songs that probably won't make the cut but could still have a slim chance to sneak into the list proper (songs between 1500-1700 points).
1) After A Few 2) Beer Can't Fix 3) In Your Eyes 4) More Hearts Than Mine 5) I Don't Care 6) Chicago Freestyle
7) Ridin' Roads
Here's a comprehensive list of what the 2020 year end list would look like adding in all the songs that are still charting or have dropped out and didn't lock (note that the list starts off at 56 because there are already 55 songs that are locked). Charting songs that are guaranteed to lock are put above 1900 points, charting songs that are likely to make the list are put between 1800-1900 points, charting songs that are a toss up are put between 1700-1800 points, and charting songs that are unlikely but have a chance are put between 1500-1700 points.
56) Before You Go 57) Sunday Best 58) Death Bed 59) THE SCOTTS 60) Break My Heart 61) Watermelon Sugar 62) Hard To Forget 63) Rain On Me 64) Party Girl 65) We Paid - - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (1900 Points) - - - - -
66) Dior 67) P*$$y Fairy 68) Stuck With U 69) Does To Me 70) Emotionally Scarred 71) Supalonely 72) Walk Em Down 73) Go Crazy 74) The Bigger Picture 75) Savage Love
76) Panini 77) Slide 78) Even Though I'm Leaving - - - - - HIGH CUTOFF (1800 Points) - - - - -
79) Bluebird 80) One Margarita 81) If The World Was Ending 82) Be Kind 83) GOOBA 84) TROLLZ 85) OUT WEST 86) Tusa 87) Kinfolks 88) BEST ON EARTH - - - - - MEDIUM CUTOFF (1700 Points) - - - - - 89) After A Few 90) Beer Can't Fix 91) In Your Eyes 92) More Hearts Than Mine 93) I Don't Care
- - - - - LOW CUTOFF (1600 Points) - - - - - 94) Chicago Freestyle
95) Ridin' Roads - - - - - MINIMUM CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -
Note that this analysis does not take into account songs that have yet to chart or songs that have already charted but haven't been big enough yet for me to start tracking them. Just a heads up that around this time last year, there were only 7 songs that made the 2019 year end list that didn't chart yet.
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jul 4, 2020 6:30:05 GMT -5
"TROLLZ" will either become 2020's "I Believe" or "Do I Make You Proud?" Personally, I would want the latter, but many would want to see it miss altogether.
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GP
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Post by GP on Jul 4, 2020 7:25:12 GMT -5
"TROLLZ" will either become 2020's "I Believe" or "Do I Make You Proud?" Personally, I would want the latter, but many would want to see it miss altogether. Isn't it already out of Streaming Songs? I don't see it last 8 weeks even
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 4, 2020 12:28:00 GMT -5
^Trollz was #94 on Spotify the week that just ended. It should barely hang on to the top 10 of YouTube, which is the only place remaining where it is doing decently. So it is likely to be out of Streaming Songs or in the best case, the bottom 10 of the chart.
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CF15
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Post by CF15 on Jul 4, 2020 13:45:03 GMT -5
I really hope "Blinding Lights" can be the year-end #1 instead of "The Box". TikTok or not, "Blinding Lights" felt more representative of this year, IMO. It would've been really cool if "Circles" managed to snag the top spot, but too many of its points were in 2019. The fact that it's above "The Box" on this week's chart gives me some hope, though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2020 6:45:34 GMT -5
Be Kind has been wavering on the radio for quite a while. I think it will end up becoming another Here With Me if radio finally drops it.
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narp
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Post by narp on Jul 5, 2020 15:34:46 GMT -5
I spent my night last night studying old Billboard magazine issues because I wanted to try predicting how long 2020’s eligibility period would be. I went as far back as 1988, where interestingly the Hot 100 and genre charts didn’t share the same chart year sometimes. Also, has anyone ever noticed how many errors are in those things?
1988: Nov 14 1987 - Nov 12 1988 (53) ***Hot 100 eligibility dates: Dec 12 1987 - Dec 3 1988 (52) 1989: Nov 19 1988 - Nov 11 1989 (52) ***Hot 100 eligibility dates: Dec 10 1988 - Dec 2 1989 (52) 1990: Nov 18 1989 - Nov 17 1990 (53) 1991: Nov 24 1990 - Nov 23 1991 (53) 1992: Nov 30 1991 - Nov 28 1992 (53) 1993: Dec 5 1992 - Nov 27 1993 (52) 1994: Dec 4 1993 - Nov 26 1994 (52) 1995: Dec 3 1994 - Nov 25 1995 (52) 1996: Dec 2 1995 - Nov 30 1996 (53) 1997: Dec 7 1996 - Nov 29 1997 (52) 1998: Dec 6 1997 - Nov 28 1998 (52) 1999: Dec 5 1998 - Nov 27 1999 (52) 2000: Dec 4 1999 - Nov 25 2000 (52) 2001: Dec 2 2000 - Nov 24 2001 (52) 2002: Dec 1 2001 - Nov 30 2002 (53) 2003: Dec 7 2002 - Nov 29 2003 (52) 2004: Dec 6 2003 - Nov 27 2004 (52) 2005: Dec 4 2004 - Nov 26 2005 (52) 2006: Dec 3 2005 - Nov 25 2006 (52) 2007: Dec 2 2006 - Nov 24 2007 (52) 2008: Dec 1 2007 - Nov 29 2008 (53) 2009: Dec 6 2008 - Nov 28 2009 (52) 2010: Dec 5 2009 - Nov 27 2010 (52) 2011: Dec 4 2010 - Nov 26 2011 (52) 2012: Dec 3 2011 - Nov 24 2012 (52) 2013: Dec 1 2012 - Nov 30 2013 (53) 2014: Dec 7 2013 - Nov 29 2014 (52) 2015: Dec 6 2014 - Nov 28 2015 (52) 2016: Dec 5 2015 - Nov 26 2016 (52) 2017: Dec 3 2016 - Nov 25 2017 (52) 2018: Dec 2 2017 - Nov 17 2018 (52) 2019: Nov 24 2018 - Nov 16 2019 (52) 2020: Nov 23 2019 - TBA (??) ***I’m assuming they’ll count the Nov 23 2019 charts for 2020 for scientific purposes.
I’ve seen multiple possibilities posted here, but the two I think are most possible are: Nov 23 2019 - Nov 14 2020 (52) Nov 23 2019 - Nov 21 2020 (53)
The top option would make it a typical chart year. It’s very possible that we get a 53 week chart year this time around though as we haven’t had one for 7 years. Both are plausible options though.
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inverse
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Post by inverse on Jul 5, 2020 18:21:34 GMT -5
2018: Dec 2 2017 - Nov 17 2018 (51) This is in fact 52 weeks. There is a chart dated "Jan 3, 2018" in between Dec 30 2017 and Jan 6 2018
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narp
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Post by narp on Jul 5, 2020 19:02:05 GMT -5
2018: Dec 2 2017 - Nov 17 2018 (51) This is in fact 52 weeks. There is a chart dated "Jan 3, 2018" in between Dec 30 2017 and Jan 6 2018 That’s weird. I had no idea. Is there a reason that happened?
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Post by tiktokfamous on Jul 5, 2020 19:05:13 GMT -5
Why is circles still so big? I was sick of that song 6 months ago. It’s a good song but it’s not THAT good. 40 weeks in the top 10 and #1 song of 2020 contender? Gheez.
The fact that it returned to the top 10 just last week...why?!
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Jul 5, 2020 19:50:21 GMT -5
This is in fact 52 weeks. There is a chart dated "Jan 3, 2018" in between Dec 30 2017 and Jan 6 2018 That’s weird. I had no idea. Is there a reason that happened? Re-calibration of the chart dates
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 5, 2020 21:07:03 GMT -5
^Yeah. They changed the chart date from being dated two Saturdays after they are refreshed on the Billboard to the Saturday right after. The January 3rd date helped fill in the gap caused by that transition.
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n13l5
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Post by n13l5 on Jul 6, 2020 15:14:56 GMT -5
Why is circles still so big? I was sick of that song 6 months ago. It’s a good song but it’s not THAT good. 40 weeks in the top 10 and #1 song of 2020 contender? Gheez. The fact that it returned to the top 10 just last week...why?! I know right the radio just refuses to let it go
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mzumii
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Post by mzumii on Jul 6, 2020 15:57:33 GMT -5
Why is circles still so big? I was sick of that song 6 months ago. It’s a good song but it’s not THAT good. 40 weeks in the top 10 and #1 song of 2020 contender? Gheez. The fact that it returned to the top 10 just last week...why?! It's an amazing pop song imo, and a lot of people see it as Post's first hit that is *mostly* considered by a lot of people to be good.... plus the streaming numbers are great and radio doesn't want to let it go
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Post by waluigionascooter on Jul 6, 2020 17:04:45 GMT -5
I feel like the reason the cutoff is earlier than before, in the middle of November is because the demand for the year end rankings are higher than ever, so Billboard as a business wants to get them out as soon as possible.
That being said I think it could go either way and a 53 week year is very possible (they gotta do one eventaully)
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