spoons
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Post by spoons on Jul 6, 2020 23:48:44 GMT -5
What will the top 10 artists of the year look like?
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𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿
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Post by 𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿 on Jul 7, 2020 0:27:38 GMT -5
What will the top 10 artists of the year look like? I think guaranteed most will be identical to the possible Billboard Hot 100 YE Top 10, namely Roddy Ricch, Weeknd, Post Malone, Doja Cat, Dua Lipa. Harry Styles and Ariana Grande could be good candidates too.
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lights
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Post by lights on Jul 7, 2020 6:15:01 GMT -5
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lights
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Post by lights on Jul 7, 2020 6:24:34 GMT -5
I posted this on here a while ago, but here's an update. The movement of key songs since dropping out still show that Juicy is looking safe in the 80s, Even Though I'm Leaving is still heading for ~#95, and now I can add that More Hearts Than Mine will be very close to #100. (Based on my estimates of their points ofc)
Cutoff looking almost identical to last year.
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Post by waluigionascooter on Jul 7, 2020 9:24:51 GMT -5
What will the top 10 artists of the year look like? I think guaranteed most will be identical to the possible Billboard Hot 100 YE Top 10, namely Roddy Ricch, Weeknd, Post Malone, Doja Cat, Dua Lipa. Harry Styles and Ariana Grande could be good candidates too. Lil Baby and Lil Uzi Vert too
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 7, 2020 14:44:22 GMT -5
changed formulas again lol also kinda busy so no fancy formatting
TL, DR: Locked: Break My Heart, Even Though I'm Leaving Unlocked: Juicy, Out West Added: None
1. Circles - 888,460 2. The Box - 848,047 3. Blinding Lights - 730,418 4. Don't Start Now - 674,111 5. Memories - 650,967 6. Life Is Good - 604,264 7. Someone You Loved - 600,072 8. Dance Monkey - 510,098 9. Roxanne - 495,465 10. Adore You - 487,555 11. Say So - 485,481 12. Everything I Wanted - 485,317 13. The Bones - 469,712 14. Intentions - 424,716 15. 10,000 Hours - 418,302 16. Hot Girl Bummer - 408,678 17. Falling - 397,219 18. Ballin' - 395,710 19. Savage - 393,272 20. Heartless - 363,191 21. Good As Hell - 352,743 22. Bop - 344,775 23. Lose You To Love Me - 342,266 24. My Oh My - 337,089 25. High Fashion - 329,240 26. No Guidance - 324,500 27. Toosie Slide - 319,362 28. Rockstar - 318,696 29. I Hope - 307,904 30. Blueberry Faygo - 282,590 31. Woah - 264,883 32. Señorita - 258,867 33. Nobody But You - 249,389 34. RITMO - 246,061 35. Roses - 245,169 36. Chasin' You - 242,775 37. Whats Poppin - 240,868 38. Highest In The Room - 240,110 39. Heart On Ice - 230,549 40. Bad Guy - 223,268 41. Trampoline - 208,850 42. Godzilla - 206,270 43. Truth Hurts - 201,217 44. I Hope You're Happy Now - 200,196 45. Yummy - 192,282 46. Sunday Best - 191,289 47. Death Bed - 188,126 48. Before You Go - 186,540 49. One Man Band - 185,487 50. Sum 2 Prove - 181,763 51. All I Want For Christmas Is You - 180,332 52. You Should Be Sad - 179,055 53. Suicidal - 178,702 54. Bandit - 171,864 55. Only Human - 168,687 56. Dior - 168,455 57. Panini - 167,574 58. Hot - 166,196 59. Break My Heart - 164,455 60. Homesick - 163,039 61. The Scotts - 162,030 62. Does To Me - 161,828 63. P*$$y Fairy - 159,192 64. Slide - 151,548 65. Even Though I'm Leaving - 150,662
---PREDICTED CUTOFF - 150K POINTS---
66. Juicy - 149,184 67. Out West - 148,282 68. More Hearts Than Mine - 147,022 69. Tusa - 144,430 70. Best On Earth - 142,062 71. Hard To Forget - 140,454 72. Kinfolks - 137,719 73. Emotionally Scarred - 137,614 74. I Don't Care - 137,422 75. Stuck With U - 136,781 76. Rain On Me - 136,767 77. Watermelon Sugar - 136,580 78. Supalonely - 133,614 79. Beer Can't Fix - 133,008 80. Heartless - 132,124 81. Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - 129,815 82. In Your Eyes - 127,198 83. After A Few - 124,186 84. Stupid Love - 124,003 85. Slow Dance In a Parking Lot - 122,946 86. Walk Em Down - 122,313 87. Ridin' Roads - 122,064 88. Catch - 115,783 89. What A Man Gotta Do - 114,055 90. Sucker - 113,803 91. Lover - 111,822 92. Party Girl - 109,612 93. Gooba - 109,272 94. Old Town Road - 108,867 95. Vete - 108,794 96. What She Wants Tonight - 108,336 97. Graveyard - 106,279 98. Homemade - 106,096 99. Yo Perreo Sola - 105,455 100. Bluebird - 105,334
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Post by waluigionascooter on Jul 7, 2020 15:04:24 GMT -5
Btw what are the chances looking like for After A Few and Beer Can't Fix if they continue their trajectories?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2020 15:19:32 GMT -5
Btw what are the chances looking like for After A Few and Beer Can't Fix if they continue their trajectories? Beer Can't Fix will likely end up where More Hearts Than Mine is, assuming it hits 20 weeks. That means it will likely just miss the 2020 year end list. As for After A Few, I'm not too sure if it will last a full 20 weeks. Assuming it doesn't, it will end up where Ridin' Roads is, which means its chances are pretty much next to nothing. If it does make 20 weeks, it will probably also be where More Hearts Than Mine is, which increases its chances, although still unlikely.
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 7, 2020 15:53:40 GMT -5
also here's a chart of how the #100 position has been progressing compared with bubble songs Attachment Deletedshould also be noted that the ratio of cutoff/week 34 cutoff last year was ~1.36, which if that holds true places the cutoff between Tusa & Best On Earth
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Post by Baby Yoda Hot100Fan on Jul 7, 2020 16:04:39 GMT -5
^Sorry to ask but your x axis is Hot 100 Year-End chart week?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2020 16:46:14 GMT -5
Here's week 34 of my 2020 year end predictions. I promise I will update the projected YE positions of songs that dropped out next week.
Locked This Week: Before You Go, Sunday Best & Dior
Will Lock Next Week: Death Bed
Might Lock Next Week: P*$$y Fairy (OTW) (This is starting to fall on the radio, so I doubt it will last another week.)
Dropouts: Everything I Wanted 5181 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #25.) I Hope You're Happy Now 2146 (Will make the 2020 year end list. Projected spot is #82.)
Level Of Concern 933 (Will miss the 2020 year end list.)
1 The Box 9403 (+162) 2 Circles 8540 (+170) 3 Blinding Lights 7832 (+270) 4 Don't Start Now 7103 (+165) 5 Memories 6490 (+98) 6 Life Is Good 6152 (+156) 7 Someone You Loved 6099 -8 Dance Monkey 5509 - 9 Roxanne 5301 -10 Everything I Wanted 5181 -11 Adore You 5168 (+175) 12 Say So 5104 (+195) 13 The Bones 5084 (+159) 14 10,000 Hours 4534 -15 Hot Girl Bummer 4442 (+94) 16 Ballin' 4311 -17 Falling 4281 (+153) 18 Intentions 4263 (+191) 19 Savage 4006 (+265) 20 BOP 3807 - 21 Heartless 3779 - 22 Lose You To Love Me 3721 - 23 Good As Hell 3700 - 24 My Oh My 3643 - 25 No Guidance 3520 -26 Toosie Slide 3443 (+132) 27 High Fashion 3356 (+108) 28 I Hope 3296 (+147) 29 Rockstar 3165 (+400) 30 Blueberry Faygo 2939 (+183) 31 Woah 2935 - 32 Senorita 2768 - 33 Heart On Ice 2714 -34 RITMO (Bad Boys For Life) 2710 - 35 HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 2694 -36 Nobody But You 2687 (+97) 37 Bad Guy 2559 -38 Chasin' You 2526 (+116) 39 WHATS POPPIN 2420 (+300) 40 Trampoline 2379 -41 Roses 2346 (+215) 42 Godzilla 2252 - 43 Truth Hurts 2231 - 44 One Man Band 2207 - 45 Yummy 2171 - 46 I Hope You're Happy Now 2146 - 47 Suicidal 2118 - 48 Sum 2 Prove 2104 - 49 Bandit 2021 - 50 Only Human 1965 -51 Before You Go 1962 (+135) 52 Homesick 1956 - 53 You Should Be Sad 1954 -54 Sunday Best 1943 (+141) 55 Juicy 1940 - 56 Hot 1928 - 57 All I Want For Christmas Is You 1912 -58 Dior 1902 (+96)
- - - - - LOCKED CUTOFF (1900 Points) - - - - -
59 Panini 1880 -60 P*$$y Fairy (OTW) 1877 (+81) 61 Death Bed 1837 (+138) 62 Slide 1819 - 63 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 - 64 OUT WEST 1768 -
65 Tusa 1755 -
- - - - - - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - - - - - -
66 Kinfolks 1714 - 67 BEST ON EARTH 1710 -68 THE SCOTTS 1708 (+104) 69 Does To Me 1656 (+87) 70 More Hearts Than Mine 1651 - 71 I Don't Care 1615 -72 Break My Heart 1598 (+150) 73 Emotionally Scarred 1533 (+106) 74 Ridin' Roads 1529 -
- - - - - MINIMUM CUTOFF (1500 Points) - - - - -
75 Watermelon Sugar 1472 (+187) 76 Supalonely 1443 (+99) 77 Beer Can't Fix 1427 (+74) 78 Stuck With U 1421 (+112) 79 Hard To Forget 1412 (+129) 80 Rain On Me 1357 (+172) 81 In Your Eyes 1349 (+58) 82 Walk Em Down 1319 (+100) 83 After A Few 1286 (+73) 84 Yo Perreo Sola 1214 (+68) 85 GOOBA 1208 (+85) 86 Bluebird 1121 (+110) 87 Party Girl 1083 (+123) 88 If The World Was Ending 1078 (+90) 89 Believe It 1076 (+60) 90 We Paid 969 (+179) 91 Be Kind 946 (+102) 92 One Margarita 898 (+144) 93 Chicago Freestyle 855 (+78) 94 In Between 854 (+83) 95 Go Crazy 748 (+120) 96 The Bigger Picture 653 (+167) 97 TROLLZ 577 (+86) 98 Savage Love 277 (+118)
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GPMB
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Post by GPMB on Jul 7, 2020 19:46:23 GMT -5
I posted this on here a while ago, but here's an update. The movement of key songs since dropping out still show that Juicy is looking safe in the 80s, Even Though I'm Leaving is still heading for ~#95, and now I can add that More Hearts Than Mine will be very close to #100. (Based on my estimates of their points ofc) Cutoff looking almost identical to last year. ok i can sort of understand Juicy being above 90 but for TUSA to potentially do it too? unreal
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lights
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Post by lights on Jul 7, 2020 20:09:06 GMT -5
I posted this on here a while ago, but here's an update. The movement of key songs since dropping out still show that Juicy is looking safe in the 80s, Even Though I'm Leaving is still heading for ~#95, and now I can add that More Hearts Than Mine will be very close to #100. (Based on my estimates of their points ofc) Cutoff looking almost identical to last year. ok i can sort of understand Juicy being above 90 but for TUSA to potentially do it too? unreal Tbh I think the Tusa trendline is a bit unrealistic. It will probably end up closer to ETIL than Juicy. It will probably trend downards.
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tanooki
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Post by tanooki on Jul 7, 2020 20:49:04 GMT -5
Week 34/52 (65.4%) Formula: Paid/1250 + Free/1875 + Programmed/2500 + Radio/6000 + Sales/5 Cutoff: 180,000 points (margin of error +/- 7.5%.. 193.5k - 166.5k) Locked this week: P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW)
Top 10: 1 Rockstar 43,027 2 Whats Poppin 32,183 3 Blinding Lights 31,150 4 Savage 28,430 5 Roses 24,957 6 Say So 19,917 7 Intentions 19,767 8 Watermelon Sugar 19,630 9 Blueberry Faygo 19,583 10 We Paid 18,550
LW TW ARTIST - SONG POINTS 1 1 Roddy Ricch - The Box 1,055,018 2 2 Post Malone - Circles 950,256 3 3 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 825,305 4 4 Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 756,919 5 5 Maroon 5 - Memories 731,116 6 6 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 692,144 7 7 Future ft. Drake - Life Is Good 663,324 8 8 Tones & I - Dance Monkey 616,764 9 9 Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 607,066 10 10 Billie Eilish - everything I wanted 573,055
11 11 Harry Styles - Adore You 555,978 12 12 Maren Morris - The Bones 546,495 14 13 Doja Cat - Say So 533,784 13 14 Dan + Shay, Justin Bieber - 10,000 Hours 514,214 16 15 blackbear - hot girl bummer 485,101 15 16 Mustard, Roddy Ricch - Ballin' 482,049 17 17 Trevor Daniel - Falling 460,854 18 18 Justin Bieber ft. Quavo - Intentions 451,243 19 19 The Weeknd - Heartless 429,139 20 20 DaBaby - BOP 422,522
25 21 Megan Thee Stallion ft. Beyonce - Savage 421,540 21 22 Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 419,549 22 23 Lizzo - Good As Hell 417,347 23 24 Camila Cabello ft. DaBaby - My Oh My 394,891 24 25 Chris Brown ft. Drake - No Guidance 394,567 26 26 Roddy Ricch ft. Mustard - High Fashion 371,334 28 27 Gabby Barrett - I Hope 351,389 27 28 Drake - Toosie Slide 350,171 34 29 DaBaby ft. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR 327,754 29 30 Lil Baby - Woah 326,090
30 31 Shawn Mendes, Camila Cabello - Senorita 312,452 32 32 Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 311,991 31 33 Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM 299,713 33 34 The Black Eyed Peas, J Balvin - RITMO (Bad Boys for Life) 290,785 37 35 Blake Shelton, Gwen Stefani - Nobody But You 283,365 35 36 Billie Eilish - bad guy 281,570 36 37 Rod Wave - Heart on Ice 280,382 39 38 Morgan Wallen - Chasin You 266,302 38 39 SHAED - Trampoline 263,181 45 40 Jack Harlow ft. DaBaby, Tory Lanez, Lil Wayne - WHATS POPPIN 257,510
44 41 SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 253,514 40 42 Lizzo - Truth Hurts 250,374 41 43 Eminem ft. Juice WRLD - Godzilla 239,643 42 44 Justin Bieber - Yummy 236,514 43 45 Old Dominion - One Man Band 234,953 46 46 Lil Baby - Sum 2 Prove 221,962 47 47 Juice WRLD, YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Bandit 221,407 48 48 YNW Melly, Juice WRLD - Suicidal 218,732 49 49 Carly Pearce, Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now 215,817 50 50 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You 215,136
51 51 Lil Nas X - Panini 213,292 52 52 Jonas Brothers - Only Human 211,437 53 53 Young Thug ft. Gunna - Hot 210,716 54 54 Halsey - You should be sad 207,971 57 55 Surfaces - Sunday Best 207,200 59 56 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 203,039 60 57 Powfu ft. beabadoobee - death bed 200,110 55 58 Kane Brown - Homesick 198,405 56 59 Doja Cat, Tyga - Juicy 195,710 62 60 Pop Smoke - Dior 194,110
58 61 Luke Combs - Even Though I'm Leaving 190,503 61 62 H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide 185,016 66 63 Jhene Aiko - P*$$Y FAIRY (OTW) 180,941 71 64 THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott, Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS 177,314 70 65 Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does to Me 176,503 72 66 Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 175,134 63 67 Karol G, Nicki Minaj - Tusa 174,612 64 68 Russ ft. BIA - BEST ON EARTH 173,766 65 69 Sam Hunt - Kinfolks 173,605 67 70 JACKBOYS ft. Young Thug - OUT WEST 171,754
68 71 Ed Sheeran ft. Justin Bieber - I Don't Care 169,521 69 72 Ingrid Andress - More Hearts than Mine 169,433 79 73 Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred 151,585 73 74 Brenda Lee - Rockin Around the Christmas Tree 151,172 93 75 Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 150,814 83 76 Sam Hunt - Hard to Forget 150,545 74 77 Dustin Lynch - Ridin Roads 149,712 78 78 Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - Beer Can't Fix 147,805 85 79 BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely 147,767 86 80 Ariana Grande, Justin Bieber - stuck with u 147,701
75 81 Diplo, Morgan Wallen - Heartless 146,768 76 82 Taylor Swift - Lover 143,226 77 83 Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus - Old Town Road 141,402 87 84 The Weeknd - In Your Eyes 141,254 80 85 Halsey - Graveyard 140,614 81 86 Jonas Brothers - Sucker 140,428 82 87 Jordan Davis - Slow Dancing in a Parking Lot 138,271 84 88 Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 137,837 88 89 Jonas Brothers - What a Man Gotta Do 135,405 95 90 Travis Denning - After a Few 135,384
98 91 NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down 134,133 89 92 Jon Pardi - Heartache Medication 133,115 103 93 Lady Gaga, Ariana Grande - Rain On Me 132,822 90 94 Wale ft. Jeremih - On Chill 132,032 91 95 Brett Young - Catch 131,484 92 96 Lil Uzi Vert - Futsal Shuffle 2020 131,481 94 97 DaBaby - VIBEZ 131,133 96 98 Luke Bryan - What She Wants Tonight 127,853 97 99 Bad Bunny - Vete 127,550 99 100 Burl Ives - A Holly Jolly Christmas 123,221
105 101 6ix9ine - GOOBA 121,732 100 102 Jake Owen - Homemade 121,691 101 103 Lil Tecca - Ran$om 121,004 102 104 Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock 117,281 110 105 StaySolidRocky - Party Girl 115,411 104 106 Summer Walker ft. Bryson Tiller - Playing Games 114,654 109 107 Bad Bunny - Yo Perreo Sola 114,561 106 108 Jason Aldean - We Back 113,152 112 109 Miranda Lambert - Bluebird 112,536 107 110 Chris Brown ft. Gunna - Heat 110,796
123 112 JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels - If the World Was Ending 103,453 126 115 Marshmello, Halsey - Be Kind 101,926 125 116 Kenny Chesney - Here and Now 101,277
140 122 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - We Paid 97,944 145 129 Luke Bryan - One Margarita 90,468
134 131 Lil Baby, 42 Dugg - Grace 88,206 141 134 Drake ft. Giveon - Chicago Freestyle 86,684 144 137 Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin, Keith Urban - Be a Light 85,045 142 139 Juice WRLD - Righteous 83,184
152 143 Maddie & Tae - Die From a Broken Heart 80,832 151 144 Scotty McCreery - In Between 79,794
150 147 Don Toliver - After Party 79,004 155 149 Florida Georgia Line - I Love My Country 76,387
189 160 Lil Baby - The Bigger Picture 64,977 172 161 6ix9ine, Nicki Minaj - TROLLZ 64,500
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2020 21:07:24 GMT -5
If Pu$$y Fairy can stabilize while it's radio goes up and streaming stays steady or goes up then yes but I wouldn't bet on it. I can't believe that a song called Pu$$y Fairy could end up being one of the 100 biggest songs of the year. I'm here from the future to tell you that anything can happen in 2020.
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lifeofaguardian
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jul 8, 2020 4:49:06 GMT -5
Week 34 - 11/07/2020For a week as quiet as this one, a few interesting things happened. For one, Savage enters the top 20 and, probably the most interesting, P*$$y Fairy (OTW) escapes recurrency for long enough to pass the Year-End threshold. In less positive news, though, After A Few is predicted to fall barely short of the cutoff. Current Status (173.000 Points to be considered "Locked", Playlist represents the top 100):Added this week:6ix9ine - GOOBA Drop-Outs this week:Jake Owen - Homemade Songs Locked this week:Pop Smoke - Dior Jhene Aiko - P*$$y Fairy (OTW) Currently lowest Locked song:H.E.R. ft. YG - Slide Songs predicted to lock within 5 weeks:1 week:THE SCOTTS, Travis Scott & Kid Cudi - THE SCOTTS Dua Lipa - Break My Heart Luke Combs ft. Eric Church - Does To Me 2 weeks:Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 3 weeks:Lil Baby - Emotionally Scarred Sam Hunt - Hard To Forget Ariana Grande & Justin Bieber - Stuck With U Ariana Grande & Lady Gaga - Rain On Me 4 weeks:BENEE ft. Gus Dapperton - Supalonely 5 weeks:NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch - Walk Em Down StaySolidRocky - Party Girl Thomas Rhett ft. Jon Pardi - Beer Can't Fix Predicted Positions for Locked Drop-Outs:See image for the full list of drop-outs #23: Billie Eilish - everything i wanted #80: Carly Pearce & Lee Brice - I Hope You're Happy Now Predictions (Songs must have 158.000 points when adding multiple weeks of the points gained last week to their total):
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spicymapping
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Post by spicymapping on Jul 8, 2020 11:07:30 GMT -5
^Sorry to ask but your x axis is Hot 100 Year-End chart week? yeah
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 8, 2020 14:22:23 GMT -5
What will the top 10 artists of the year look like? I think guaranteed most will be identical to the possible Billboard Hot 100 YE Top 10, namely Roddy Ricch, Weeknd, Post Malone, Doja Cat, Dua Lipa. Harry Styles and Ariana Grande could be good candidates too. Include Drake too. "Life Is Good" will boost his points. And Bieber! The Dan+Shay track & the Grande duet that went to #1.
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 8, 2020 14:28:38 GMT -5
And for those waiting with baited breath for my top 100 predictions, please, use mouthwash!
For the week of July 11, 2020 (my 63rd birthday):
Life Is Good squeezes Roxanne from the top 10, but I think there won't be any further new top 10s until ROCKSTAR gets there. By that point a song will need over 6000 points to make the top ten and there aren't many other songs on that trajectory.
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Post by The Music Guy in the Group on Jul 8, 2020 15:55:15 GMT -5
Do Y'all have thoughts on any of these songs possibly making the year end? (Yes I know this is a long list)
After Party by Don Toliver Bang! by AJR Be a Light by Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin & Keith Urban Be Kind by Marshmello & Halsey Bluebird by Miranda Lambert Chicago Freestyle by Drake ft. Giveon Die from a Broken Heart by Maddie & Tae Done by Chris Janson Don't Rush by Young T & Bugsey ft. Headie One Go Crazy by Chris Brown & Young Thug Got What I Got by Jason Aldean If the World Was Ending by JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels I Love My Country by Florida Georgia Line ily by surf mesa ft. Emilee Like That by Doja Cat ft. Gucci Mane MAMACITA by The Black Eyed Peas, Ozuna & J.Rey Soul One Margarita by Luke Bryan One Night Standards by Ashley McBryde Savage Love by Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo The Bigger Picture by Lil Baby Walk Em Down by NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch We Paid by Lil Baby & 42 Dugg Yo Perrero Sola by Bad Bunny
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lights
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Post by lights on Jul 8, 2020 16:09:18 GMT -5
Do Y'all have thoughts on any of these songs possibly making the year end? (Yes I know this is a long list) After Party by Don Toliver Bang! by AJR Be a Light by Thomas Rhett ft. Reba McEntire, Hillary Scott, Chris Tomlin & Keith Urban Be Kind by Marshmello & Halsey Bluebird by Miranda Lambert Chicago Freestyle by Drake ft. Giveon Die from a Broken Heart by Maddie & Tae Done by Chris Janson Don't Rush by Young T & Bugsey ft. Headie One Go Crazy by Chris Brown & Young Thug Got What I Got by Jason Aldean If the World Was Ending by JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels I Love My Country by Florida Georgia Line ily by surf mesa ft. Emilee Like That by Doja Cat ft. Gucci Mane MAMACITA by The Black Eyed Peas, Ozuna & J.Rey Soul One Margarita by Luke Bryan One Night Standards by Ashley McBryde Savage Love by Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo The Bigger Picture by Lil Baby Walk Em Down by NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch We Paid by Lil Baby & 42 Dugg Yo Perrero Sola by Bad Bunny Highly likely: We Paid by Lil Baby & 42 Dugg Go Crazy by Chris Brown & Young Thug One Margarita by Luke Bryan Likely: Savage Love by Jawsh 685 & Jason Derulo Toss-up: Die from a Broken Heart by Maddie & Tae If the World Was Ending by JP Saxe ft. Julia Michaels Walk Em Down by NLE Choppa ft. Roddy Ricch Yo Perrero Sola by Bad Bunny Bluebird by Miranda Lambert Unlikely: After Party by Don Toliver Don't Rush by Young T & Bugsey ft. Headie One Too soon to tell: The rest
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rockgolf
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 8, 2020 16:15:11 GMT -5
lifeofaguardian: I like your predictive chart and I suspect its going to be close to the eventual real thing. A question, tho. How do you determine projected points? Do you extrapolate future chart positions (or points) based on existing data? If so, how?
I see you have several songs listed as having 15 remaining weeks, but a few with 17 (the actual remaining number of weeks in the Billboard Calendar year). How do you determine the remaining weeks? (I think you're already incorporating the 20w/#50 and 52w/#25 rules based on remaining weeks for some songs.)
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atg
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Post by atg on Jul 8, 2020 19:48:00 GMT -5
I really hope "Blinding Lights" can be the year-end #1 instead of "The Box". TikTok or not, "Blinding Lights" felt more representative of this year, IMO. It would've been really cool if "Circles" managed to snag the top spot, but too many of its points were in 2019. The fact that it's above "The Box" on this week's chart gives me some hope, though. Blinding Lights could get that #1. It’s still at #3 on its 31st week while the box is #16 on its 30th week. If blinding lights can hold the top 5 at least for 6-8 more weeks and the top 10 overall for probably 12 weeks then it’s got it most likely
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 20:22:08 GMT -5
I really hope "Blinding Lights" can be the year-end #1 instead of "The Box". TikTok or not, "Blinding Lights" felt more representative of this year, IMO. It would've been really cool if "Circles" managed to snag the top spot, but too many of its points were in 2019. The fact that it's above "The Box" on this week's chart gives me some hope, though. Blinding Lights could get that #1. It’s still at #3 on its 31st week while the box is #16 on its 30th week. If blinding lights can hold the top 5 at least for 6-8 more weeks and the top 10 overall for probably 12 weeks then it’s got it most likely Under Naomi (previously Tanooki), Lights, Life Of A Guardian, and my 2020 year end predictions, if both songs got around the same amount of points until the chart year ends, then Blinding Lights would just beat out The Box for that YE #1. It's literally a numbers game at this point to see which song can lose less points in the coming weeks.
Under Rockgolf's predictions (happy birthday by the way), Blinding Lights will also beat The Box, but will fall behind Circles for #1, assuming everything also stays the same.
PS: Sorry to Spicymapping since I couldn't calculate the trajectories of both songs since you made a formula change this week.
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lifeofaguardian
Charting
Almost definitely not a furry
Joined: April 2019
Posts: 123
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Post by lifeofaguardian on Jul 9, 2020 8:49:13 GMT -5
lifeofaguardian : I like your predictive chart and I suspect its going to be close to the eventual real thing. A question, tho. How do you determine projected points? Do you extrapolate future chart positions (or points) based on existing data? If so, how?
I see you have several songs listed as having 15 remaining weeks, but a few with 17 (the actual remaining number of weeks in the Billboard Calendar year). How do you determine the remaining weeks? (I think you're already incorporating the 20w/#50 and 52w/#25 rules based on remaining weeks for some songs.)
Thank you! The projected points are based on what a song would look like if they remained completely static for the rest of their runs (which is obviously inaccurate, but I do feel like it gives a pretty good general idea of which songs lower on the charts could make it). As for the remaining weeks, there are a lot of factors that I'll try to explain in a way that makes sense (... I'm bad with words lmao): I'm assuming each song will have a chart run of 20 weeks (based on the 20/50 rule), with a maximum chart run of 52 weeks (based on the 52/25 rule). However, there is also a minimum amount of weeks to be added depending on how long they've charted: - Songs in the top 20 get a minimum of 15 weeks added - Songs in the top 40 get a minimum of 10 weeks added To offer a more clear example I'll use a few examples here of current songs: The Bigger Picture, at the moment, has charted for 3 weeks. Therefore, in order to get a minimum of 20 weeks, it needs 17 more weeks added. Rain On Me, meanwhile, has charted for 6 weeks, so it would need 14 more weeks added. However, since it's in the top 20, it gets 15 weeks because that is the minimum. Similarly, Savage Love is in the top 40 and has charted for 3 weeks as well, so it gets 17 weeks added to get to 20 Meanwhile, Toosie Slide is also in the top 40 but has charted for 13 weeks as well. 7 weeks is less than the top 40 minimum of 10 weeks, so it gets 10 weeks added to its total. Circles is in the top 20 and should get 15 weeks added, but since a chart run on my prediction can't exceed 52 weeks (because it's rare enough for a song to exceed that limit that I don't want to add another exception for that), it gets 8 more weeks (the amount of weeks it needs for 52 weeks). Supalonely, meanwhile, is below the top 40 and has been charting for 16 weeks, so it just gets the 4 weeks added for it to hit 20 weeks. At the same time, Dior has been charting for more than 20 weeks but is below the top 40, so 5 weeks are added to its total. Again, just like songs escaping the 52/25 rule, songs dodging the 20/50 rule are rare enough that I'm comfortable not adding an exception for that, which is why Pu$$y Fairy has 0 weeks added despite potentially sticking around for another week - by Billboard's general rules, it should leave next month and it's staying because of an exception. The final rule I use is that debuts get a small penalty in that they'll only get 15 weeks added (for top 20 debuts) or 10 weeks (for others). This is because, in a lot of cases, debuts, especially high ones, tend to be frontloaded in points and not using this penalty would result in disproportionally high predictions for said debuts (think Trollz). And then of course, a song can't get more weeks added than the year is long. It wouldn't make sense for me to add 15 weeks to a song's expected run when there's only 4 weeks left, after all. That's the system itself explained. One more note, though: the "predicted position" of my chart is based on the distribution of last year's songs, adjusted to fit my predicted cutoff (for example, number 90 is the predicted cutoff+8% and so on). I do hope this was... somewhat clear because I know it's got a lot of exceptions and rules and so on. My calculation for the weeks is about 8 nested "ifs" and "mins" and "maxs" in excel lmao
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rockgolf
2x Platinum Member
Pop music fanatic since the days of 7" 45 RPM records.
Joined: August 2018
Posts: 2,105
Pronouns: he/him/his
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Post by rockgolf on Jul 9, 2020 14:36:14 GMT -5
lifeofaguardian: You did just fine with words. That was a very clear explanation.Thanks
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Deleted
Joined: January 1970
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 15:23:45 GMT -5
Here's the projected cutoff for the next 7 weeks assuming all songs stay in their respective chart positions and no new big songs debut.
Week 35 (67.31%) 65 OUT WEST 1768 66 Tusa 1755 67 Break My Heart 1748 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 68 Does To Me 1743 69 Kinfolks 1714 70 BEST ON EARTH 1710
Week 36 (69.23%)
67 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 68 OUT WEST 1768 69 Tusa 1755 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 70 Emotionally Scarred 1745 71 Kinfolks 1714 72 BEST ON EARTH 1710
Week 37 (71.15%)
69 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 70 Hard To Forget 1799 71 OUT WEST 1768 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 72 Stuck With U 1757 73 Tusa 1755 74 Supalonely 1740
Week 38 (73.08%) 71 Slide 1819 72 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 73 OUT WEST 1768
- - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 74 Tusa 1755 75 Beer Can't Fix 1723 76 Walk Em Down 1719
Week 39 (75%) 72 Slide 1819 73 Walk Em Down 1819 74 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 75 OUT WEST 1768 76 Tusa 1755 77 Beer Can't Fix 1723
Week 40 (76.92%) 75 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 76 Bluebird 1781 77 OUT WEST 1768 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 78 One Margarita 1762 79 Tusa 1755 80 After A Few 1724
Week 41 (78.85%)
77 Slide 1819 78 Even Though I'm Leaving 1804 79 GOOBA 1803 - - - - - PROJECTED CUTOFF - - - - - 80 OUT WEST 1768 81 Tusa 1755 82 After A Few 1724
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tuna
Platinum Member
weezed to meet you
Joined: July 2019
Posts: 1,510
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Post by tuna on Jul 9, 2020 22:35:18 GMT -5
Righteous is probably going to reenter with Juice WRLD's album. how many more weeks does it need to make the y/e?
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rochdief
Bubbling Under
Joined: June 2020
Posts: 4
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Post by rochdief on Jul 10, 2020 0:16:00 GMT -5
Hii my name is Roch, I'm from México:)
I was thinking that if Blinding Light gets that number one, is gonna be the best number one year end in years, the only competition would be rolling in the deep or somebody that I used to know.
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dovahduck
Platinum Member
Kavinsky finally dropped! :)
Joined: April 2018
Posts: 1,869
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Post by dovahduck on Jul 10, 2020 0:24:36 GMT -5
Hii my name is Roch, I'm from México:) I was thinking that if Blinding Light gets that number one, is gonna be the best number one year end in years, the only competition would be rolling in the deep or somebody that I used to know. Welcome to Pulse Music Roch!
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