Billboard Hot 100: 03/07/2020

[lazer]

Could Someone You Loved exit the top ten this week? I think its a possibility since the radio for the song is bleeding really hard.

[annoymous1]

As the months pass by we are getting closer to seeing in the top 10 flashback the iconic song Old Town Road being at #1 for 19 weeks.

[Future Captain]

I hope After Hour can get to top 20 so Abel can triple down in the top 20 on top of having double top 10

[Deleted]

Mar 1, 2020 13:12:03 GMT -5 lazer said:

Could Someone You Loved exit the top ten this week? I think its a possibility since the radio for the song is bleeding really hard.

Now my radio bleeds
Into nightfall
And you're not here
To get me through it all
I let my guard down
And then you pulled the streams
I was getting kinda used to being the hit you loved (to hate)

[fhas]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

[Deleted]

Despite the ever static top 3, I'm really liking this top 10. Once "Memories" leaves, I will have nothing to complain here, even if I find "Life Is Good" to be rather overrated, but it has its merits.

Keep going, "Don't Start Now" and "Blinding Lights"! You both deserve to hit #1 so badly ✨✨✨

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Mar 1, 2020 11:38:34 GMT -5 fhas said:

Poor, Dance Monkey. It seems like it's gonna peak at #11 on the Radio Songs chart and #2 on the Digital Sales chart despite being the most downloaded song of the calendar year so far.

Definitely unlucky in Digital Song Sales. For Radio Songs, I found it quite surprising that The Bones was able to edge it for the weeks the latter was in the top 10.

[Henry Suárez]

The Box is undeniable huge streaming hit and even top 10 on Radio but I don't know I feel like this song is not like some of the past huge #1s, I remember God's Plan for example was so huge, not talking about points more like personal experience, just my impression, good for Roddy Ricch 8th week(?) at #1.

[aussie1]

I find The Box doesn't feel as big as other hits because it's a straight rap song without an overly catchy chorus. For example God's plan had a fantastic video, catchy memorable lyrics and had a more "poppy" feeling to it then The Box. The box doesn't really get a whole lot of airplay here in Aus and unless you are into rap music you aren't really going to hear it a lot. Though in saying that I'm seeing it pop up a lot more on social media in the last week or so. When I see people playing a song in snapchats/instagram or see it in videos on twitter/facebook, it always makes the song feel bigger. 

[sirskimask]

Mar 1, 2020 12:59:41 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Remember when people thought Heartless wasn't gonna stick around and might miss the YE list lmaoo

[tallen2001]

Mar 1, 2020 16:59:06 GMT -5 sirskimask said:

Mar 1, 2020 12:59:41 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

Remember when people thought Heartless wasn't gonna stick around and might miss the YE list lmaoo

I remember when people were saying the same thing about HIGHEST IN THE ROOM.

[tuna]

Mar 1, 2020 16:48:14 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

I find The Box doesn't feel as big as other hits because it's a straight rap song without an overly catchy chorus. For example God's plan had a fantastic video, catchy memorable lyrics and had a more "poppy" feeling to it then The Box. The box doesn't really get a whole lot of airplay here in Aus and unless you are into rap music you aren't really going to hear it a lot. Though in saying that I'm seeing it pop up a lot more on social media in the last week or so. When I see people playing a song in snapchats/instagram or see it in videos on twitter/facebook, it always makes the song feel bigger. 

I feel this a lot too. Looking through these threads, a lot of the discussion is centered around non-Roddy topics such as The Weeknd and Dua Lipa and Justin Bieber. It feels like The Box doesn't really matter, and I see of it in discussion is in a broader context with High Fashion and Ballin'

[Deleted]

Mar 1, 2020 16:48:14 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

I find The Box doesn't feel as big as other hits because it's a straight rap song without an overly catchy chorus. For example God's plan had a fantastic video, catchy memorable lyrics and had a more "poppy" feeling to it then The Box. The box doesn't really get a whole lot of airplay here in Aus and unless you are into rap music you aren't really going to hear it a lot. Though in saying that I'm seeing it pop up a lot more on social media in the last week or so. When I see people playing a song in snapchats/instagram or see it in videos on twitter/facebook, it always makes the song feel bigger. 

Are we listening to the same song? The Box is extremely catchy.

[aussie1]

Mar 1, 2020 19:16:44 GMT -5 @johnathanthegod said:

Mar 1, 2020 16:48:14 GMT -5 aussie1 said:

I find The Box doesn't feel as big as other hits because it's a straight rap song without an overly catchy chorus. For example God's plan had a fantastic video, catchy memorable lyrics and had a more "poppy" feeling to it then The Box. The box doesn't really get a whole lot of airplay here in Aus and unless you are into rap music you aren't really going to hear it a lot. Though in saying that I'm seeing it pop up a lot more on social media in the last week or so. When I see people playing a song in snapchats/instagram or see it in videos on twitter/facebook, it always makes the song feel bigger. 

Are we listening to the same song? The Box is extremely catchy.

Different opinions my friend. 

I'm not saying it's not catchy but to me it's not as catchy as Gods Plan as a user compared it to. 

[owenlovesmusic]

dam i read that wrong and rly thought Life Is Good was going #1

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Normally, I never hear the choruses in most rap songs. They’re too subtle or unmemorable because I’m so used to bombastic pop, save for the occasional bright spot (like the hook-y “Ransom” & “B.I.T.C.H”). For example (this is a hot take) “God’s Plan” has no discernible chorus to me (is it the bed mama line? The ‘03 line? the bad things line?) If a song is just chill the whole time, it goes over my head.

I assumed I’d feel the same about “The Box”, but “Pullin' out the coupe at the lot / Told 'em fuck 12, fuck SWAT” is so instantly memorable (plus the STRINGS ) that I couldn’t forget it. It’s got a strong hook, that’s why it’s been number 1 for so long.

[singingrulebritannia]

Mar 1, 2020 19:05:26 GMT -5 tuna said:

I feel this a lot too. Looking through these threads, a lot of the discussion is centered around non-Roddy topics such as The Weeknd and Dua Lipa and Justin Bieber. It feels like The Box doesn't really matter, and I see of it in discussion is in a broader context with High Fashion and Ballin'

"The Box" at this point in its run doesn't lend itself that well to the tone of chart discussion that happens in these threads. It rose to #1 too quick for people to be talking about its growth. It's metrics aren't really changing; still a streaming monster (but not on the level of the biggest ever), still great on sales, still making big gains on radio but not in the top 20 on Pop so it's not showing up on callout scores yet. It still has a big lead over the rest of the top 5 but not big enough that it's predicted to be record-breaking despite us not knowing for sure what's going to replace it. Roddy has been around long enough that his commercial build-up is natural, but it didn't take him so long to blow up that people are rushing to celebrate him overcoming extreme odds or anything, and he's not a particularly eccentric personality or mold-breaking musically.

Also, despite being ostensibly a general music board, we all know what the membership leans towards praising: capital P Pop capital S Stars with capital H History. "The Box" was never going to create a fever pitch on this board, but it doesn't have to "matter" to this niche to "matter" broadly (plus, I mean--the song's #8 on Crownnote this week. I'd say that's high enough for it to be considered a 'phenomenon' here too).

[Normi]

I never minded The Box, I tried to get into it but never could
It's just a bit repetitive and non-eventful, it being #1 for double-digit weeks is laughable
I think in 5 years it will be one of those forgotten #1s
It should make space for Dont Start Now, Blinding Lights and Say So
If those songs went to the top back to back there would finally be some fresh air on the chart

[iHype.]

It would be cool and deserved if Heartless managed to return to top 10 and spent a couple more weeks there after having the most disastrous drop from #1 ever at the time.

Despite that fall from #1, the song did end up being a decent hit in the end and having a lot more longevity during its full run as a single than various other #1s. The fact it’s also even nearing top 5 at Pop radio and getting great reception there is so impressive considering it’s pretty explicit and non-Pop friendly and he literally has another single that’s crafted exactly for Pop radio at the moment.

[spicymapping]

Final Predictions!

1. The Box (=) - 41,300
2. Life Is Good (=) - 36,5000
3. Circles (=) - 26,400
4. Roxanne (+2) - 25,800
5. Don't Start Now (=) - 25,500
6. Dance Monkey (-2) - 24,600
7. Blinding Lights (+3) - 23,000
8. Memories (-1) - 22,500
9. Someone You Loved (-1) - 20,300
10. Heartless (+4) - 18,900
11. Everything I Wanted (+1) - 18,700
12. Intentions (-3) - 18,700
13. Hot Girl Bummer (+2) - 18,500
14. On (NEW) - 18,300
15. 10,000 Hours (-2) - 17,300
16. Ballin' (+1) - 16,600
17. Adore You (+3) - 16,300
18. Bop (=) - 16,000
19. The Bones (=) - 15,200
20. Lose You To Love Me (+1) - 14,600
21. After Hours (+56) - 14,300
22. Yummy (-11) - 13,900
23. My Oh My (+2) - 13,800
24. Dior (+25) - 13,800
25. Woah (+3) - 13,500
26. Lil Top (NEW) - 13,400
27. No Guidance (+4) - 12,800
28. Good As Hell (-6) - 12,300
29. High Fashion (-3) - 12,200
30. Falling (-3) - 12,200
31. You Should Be Sad (-2) - 11,800
32. Kinfolks (+2) - 11,400
33. Señorita (-1) - 11,100
34. What a Man Gotta Do (-1) - 11,000
35. Bad Guy (-5) - 10,900
36. Say So (+15) - 10,900
37. Sucker (+4) - 10,400
38. RITMO (+2) - 10,300
39. One Man Band (-1) - 10,200
40. Homesick (+3) - 10,200
41. Godzilla (-5) - 10,000
42. I Hope (+2) - 9,800
43. Only Human (-1) - 9,800
44. Highest In The Room (-9) - 9,700
45. I Don’t Care (-6) - 9,700
46. Make Me Want To (+7) - 9,400
47. Trampoline (-10) - 9,400
48. Red Eye (NEW) - 9,400
49. Sum 2 Prove (+1) - 9,300
50. Tusa (-3) - 8,900
51. Bad Bad (NEW) - 8,800
52. Blueberry Faygo (+2) - 8,600
53. Homemade (+21) - 8,600
54. Slide (+1) - 8,600
55. No Time To Die (-39) - 8,500
56. Heart On Ice (+5) - 8,400
57. Best On Earth (=) - 8,400
58. Juicy (-6) - 8,000
59. I Wish Grandpas Never Died (+8) - 7,800
60. Fine By Time (NEW) - 7,800
61. Suicidal (-5) 7,500
62. More Hearts Than Mine (+8) - 7,300
63. To Die For (-17) - 7,400
64. Chasin You (+7) - 7,200
65. Nobody But You (-2) - 7,200
66. What She Wants Tonight (-2) - 7,100
67. Slow Dance In a Parking Lot (+7) - 7,000
68. Knocked Off (NEW) - 7,000
69. I Hope You’re Happy Now (-4) - 7,000
70. Know Your Worth (+8) - 6,900
71. We Back (-2) - 6,900
72. Forever (-48) - 6,800
73. Shake The Room (NEW) - 6,800
74. Out West (-6) - 6,800
75. Go Stupid (-15) - 6,800
76. RIP Lil Phat (NEW) - 6,600
77. Catch (+10) - 6,500
78. Make No Sense (+4) - 6,500
79. Before You Go (-3) - 6,400
80. Numbers (-57) - 6,400
81. Rare (+9) - 6,300
82. Dive Bar (+10) - 6,300
83. P*$$y Fairy (+16) - 6,300
84. homecoming queen? (+5) - 6,200
85. The Man (RE) - 6,100
86. South of The Border (-27) - 6,100
87. Come Thru (+7) 6,000
88. Welcome To The Party (NEW) - 6,000
89. Give No Fxk (-41) - 5,900
90. Long RD (NEW) - 5,900
91. Toes (-16) - 5,900
92. Moral Of The Story (NEW) - 5,900
93. Bat Man (NEW) - 5,870
94. Ridin Roads (-9) - 5,800
95. What’s Poppin (-11) - 5,800
96. B.I.T.C.H. (-8) - 5,700
97. Does To Me (NEW) - 5,600
98. Into The Unknown (-1) - 5,400
99. Filter (NEW) - 5,400
100. My Time (NEW) - 5,400

[tanooki]

....chart search isn't working

[𝓲𝓽'𝓼.𝓰𝓿]

Seeing "Hot Girl Bummer" closer to Top 10 is just...great :)

[tuna]

pls let the update be on time today

[Deleted]

Mar 2, 2020 6:57:56 GMT -5 spicymapping said:

Final Predictions!


36. Say So (+15) - 10,900
37. Sucker (+4) - 10,400 
38. RITMO (+2) - 10,300
39. One Man Band (-1) - 10,200
40. Homesick (+3) - 10,200
41. Godzilla (-5) - 10,000
42. I Hope (+2) - 9,800
43. Only Human (-1) - 9,800
44. Highest In The Room (-9) - 9,700
45. I Don’t Care (-6) - 9,700

85. The Man (RE) - 6,100
86. South of The Border (-27) - 6,100
87. Come Thru (+7) 6,000

WHY? 😭
It's going to mark a whole year since this song debuted and peaked at #1.

Anyway, I'm happy for the predictions of "Say So" getting such a boost and "I Don't Care" steadily dropping. Quite surprised to see the drop for "South Of The Border", even though it was somewhat expected, as radio was its only driving force.

[Choco]

Mar 2, 2020 4:06:24 GMT -5 singingrulebritannia said:

Mar 1, 2020 19:05:26 GMT -5 tuna said:

I feel this a lot too. Looking through these threads, a lot of the discussion is centered around non-Roddy topics such as The Weeknd and Dua Lipa and Justin Bieber. It feels like The Box doesn't really matter, and I see of it in discussion is in a broader context with High Fashion and Ballin'

"The Box" at this point in its run doesn't lend itself that well to the tone of chart discussion that happens in these threads. It rose to #1 too quick for people to be talking about its growth. It's metrics aren't really changing; still a streaming monster (but not on the level of the biggest ever), still great on sales, still making big gains on radio but not in the top 20 on Pop so it's not showing up on callout scores yet. It still has a big lead over the rest of the top 5 but not big enough that it's predicted to be record-breaking despite us not knowing for sure what's going to replace it. Roddy has been around long enough that his commercial build-up is natural, but it didn't take him so long to blow up that people are rushing to celebrate him overcoming extreme odds or anything, and he's not a particularly eccentric personality or mold-breaking musically.

Also, despite being ostensibly a general music board, we all know what the membership leans towards praising: capital P Pop capital S Stars with capital H History. "The Box" was never going to create a fever pitch on this board, but it doesn't have to "matter" to this niche to "matter" broadly (plus, I mean--the song's #8 on Crownnote this week. I'd say that's high enough for it to be considered a 'phenomenon' here too).

Plus what's so interesting about it that it needs to be actively discussed right now? It's not breaking records in any metric, it's kidna there by default because several superstar releases didn't live up to the task of taking it down (which is also why "Circles" has lingered so much inside top 5), and it most likely won't break any record a la OTR because it's already quite "weak" points-wise that in a few weeks even a "underperformance" like "Yummy" will overtake it.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/03/02

1(=) Post Malone - Circles 139.96(-0.19)

2(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 122.31(+1.01)
3(=) Maroon 5 - Memories 116.77(-1.25)
4(+1) Arizona Zervas - ROXANNE 109.60(+0.78)
5(-1) The Weeknd - Heartless 108.46(-0.68) -
6(=) Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved 96.92(-1.91)
7(=) Roddy Ricch - The Box 89.28(+0.78)
8(=) blackbear - hot girl bummer 88.17(+0.92)
9(=) Selena Gomez - Lose You to Love Me 82.96(-1.20)
10(+2) Billie Eilish - everything i wanted 79.12(+0.94)

13(=) Harry Styles - Adore You 76.07(+1.34)

15(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 67.64(+2.23)

17(+1) Future - Life Is Good (feat. Drake) 62.57(+2.48) +

24(+3) Camila Cabello - My Oh My (feat. DaBaby) 52.56(+0.82)

34(+1) Garth Brooks & Blake Shelton - Dive Bar 43.87(+1.92)

36(+2) Justin Bieber - Intentions (feat. Quavo) 42.88(+2.13)

64(+5) Khalid & Disclosure - Know Your Worth 25.94(+1.01)

71(+14) SZA & Justin Timberlake - The Other Side 24.42(+2.86)

72(+6) Doja Cat - Say So 24.28(+1.47) +

75(+15) Lady Gaga - Stupid Love 23.65(+3.34)

-(-) Migos - Give No Fxk (feat. Travis Scott & Young Thug) 14.99(+0.75)

-(-) Static & Ben El & Pitbull - Further Up (Na, Na, Na, Na, Na) 13.44(+0.90)

-(-) Kenny Chesney - Here and Now 12.71(+0.81)

-(-) Skip Marley & H.E.R. - Slow Down 10.86(+3.37) +

[Deleted]

"Don't Start Now" is hopefully coming for that #1 on radio. I definitely wasn't expecting it some weeks ago. This is so exciting! 😍

[tuna]

With Circles levels of radio, could DSN potentially hit #1 while still being bad on streaming?

[Lukas]

Mar 2, 2020 12:01:35 GMT -5 Choco said:

Mar 2, 2020 4:06:24 GMT -5 singingrulebritannia said:

"The Box" at this point in its run doesn't lend itself that well to the tone of chart discussion that happens in these threads. It rose to #1 too quick for people to be talking about its growth. It's metrics aren't really changing; still a streaming monster (but not on the level of the biggest ever), still great on sales, still making big gains on radio but not in the top 20 on Pop so it's not showing up on callout scores yet. It still has a big lead over the rest of the top 5 but not big enough that it's predicted to be record-breaking despite us not knowing for sure what's going to replace it. Roddy has been around long enough that his commercial build-up is natural, but it didn't take him so long to blow up that people are rushing to celebrate him overcoming extreme odds or anything, and he's not a particularly eccentric personality or mold-breaking musically.

Also, despite being ostensibly a general music board, we all know what the membership leans towards praising: capital P Pop capital S Stars with capital H History. "The Box" was never going to create a fever pitch on this board, but it doesn't have to "matter" to this niche to "matter" broadly (plus, I mean--the song's #8 on Crownnote this week. I'd say that's high enough for it to be considered a 'phenomenon' here too).

Plus what's so interesting about it that it needs to be actively discussed right now? It's not breaking records in any metric, it's kidna there by default because several superstar releases didn't live up to the task of taking it down (which is also why "Circles" has lingered so much inside top 5), and it most likely won't break any record a la OTR because it's already quite "weak" points-wise that in a few weeks even a "underperformance" like "Yummy" will overtake it.

The only song that got more points in a week than this song since Old Town Road was at #1 was All I Want For Christmas is You. Don't call it a weak #1 when it's not. It may not be record-breaking, but it isn't weak. In fact, it's still getting about 40K points in a week, which I think is more than normal in the current era.

[Deleted]

Mar 2, 2020 12:23:55 GMT -5 tuna said:

With Circles levels of radio, could DSN potentially hit #1 while still being bad on streaming?

And it's not even that bad - it got to #10 and even #9 once previous album bombs faded away. Fortunately, this is not a "High Hopes" or "Good As Hell" scenario, so it could very well potentially hit #1, especially on the album release week which might give it the streaming push it needs.