Billboard Hot 100: 03/07/2020

[Choco]

It's currently "weak" in the sense that it's not the unstoppable monster it was at the start. Streams are down to a normal level, radio is not amazing...

The video doesn't seem like it's gonna reignite it's dominance either. The issue is that nothing else is getting there either, with "Life is Good" parked well below "The Box" on most metrics, and "Circles" being old as hell.

[tuna]

Mar 2, 2020 12:27:34 GMT -5 @aprettyoddmusicbox said:

Mar 2, 2020 12:23:55 GMT -5 tuna said:

With Circles levels of radio, could DSN potentially hit #1 while still being bad on streaming?

And it's not even that bad - it got to #10 and even #9 once previous album bombs faded away. Fortunately, this is not a "High Hopes" or "Good As Hell" scenario, so it could very well potentially hit #1, especially on the album release week which might give it the streaming push it needs.

Usually songs need to be strong across the board to hit #1, however. Most every #1 from the past year had been on top on streaming at some point. The only one that wasn’t afaik was Someone You Loved

[Lukas]

Mar 2, 2020 12:29:55 GMT -5 Choco said:

It's currently "weak" in the sense that it's not the unstoppable monster it was at the start. Streams are down to a normal level, radio is not amazing...

The video doesn't seem like it's gonna reignite it's dominance either. The issue is that nothing else is getting there either, with "Life is Good" parked well below "The Box" on most metrics, and "Circles" being old as hell.

1) You have a good point about its radio not being incredibly strong, so maybe that would cancel out its dominance in overall points, but getting 50M streams in a week is still way above normal. Especially when we had a week where the #1 streaming song had less than 25M streams not even four months ago.

2) Who said the video wouldn't give it much higher streaming numbers and thus boost its dominance further? According to Kworb, the song got over 6M views both on Saturday and Sunday, with more on Sunday than Saturday. While that number is global, if the official audio us/global views ratio is any indication, it's getting about 3M views on both days in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if the video debuts at #1 on the weekly YouTube chart with about 15M views. If so, it could easily go back to doing about 50,000 points in a week with about 65M streams, versus the 40,000-42,500 points it's doing currently with about 50M streams. Meaning, it could be stronger in this coming week than it did on its fourth week at #1 (49,400 points according to fhas; it got more streams in its fourth week than now I would admit but on its fourth week it didn't have much airplay). Even then, the music video isn't the only thing that could give it another boost. A remix could also work, and I would be surprised if one didn't get released at this rate.

3) You can't define "weak" as comparing it to what it got on its first or second week at #1. I mean you probably could but that's giving off the wrong impression as to what weak really means. That's the equivalent saying Old Town Road was a weak #1 on its 10th week because its points on that week were much less than its 2nd week at #1. 

[tuna]

Mar 2, 2020 12:44:29 GMT -5 Lukas said:

Mar 2, 2020 12:29:55 GMT -5 Choco said:

It's currently "weak" in the sense that it's not the unstoppable monster it was at the start. Streams are down to a normal level, radio is not amazing...

The video doesn't seem like it's gonna reignite it's dominance either. The issue is that nothing else is getting there either, with "Life is Good" parked well below "The Box" on most metrics, and "Circles" being old as hell.

1) You have a good point about its radio not being incredibly strong, so maybe that would cancel out its dominance in overall points, but getting 50M streams in a week is still way above normal. Especially when we had a week where the #1 streaming song had less than 25M streams not even four months ago.

2) Who said the video wouldn't give it much higher streaming numbers and thus boost its dominance further? According to Kworb, the song got over 6M views both on Saturday and Sunday, with more on Sunday than Saturday. While that number is global, if the official audio us/global views ratio is any indication, it's getting about 3M views on both days in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if the video debuts at #1 on the weekly YouTube chart with about 15M views. If so, it could easily go back to doing about 50,000 points in a week with about 65M streams, versus the 40,000-42,500 points it's doing currently with about 50M streams. Meaning, it could be stronger in this coming week than it did on its fourth week at #1 (49,400 points according to fhas; it got more streams in its fourth week than now I would admit but on its fourth week it didn't have much airplay). Even then, the music video isn't the only thing that could give it another boost. A remix could also work, and I would be surprised if one didn't get released at this rate.

3) You can't define "weak" as comparing it to what it got on its first or second week at #1. I mean you probably could but that's giving off the wrong impression as to what weak really means. That's the equivalent saying Old Town Road was a weak #1 on its 10th week because its points on that week were much less than its 2nd week at #1. 

It’s weak because it’s declining. In a couple weeks it’ll actually be open to competition which makes it much less of a #1. By week 8 of OTR there was still nothing that could stop it

[Deleted]

hey so we have a decently strong #1 rn but it's weak now bc it's declining lmao

[tuna]

yes???? relative to earlier it's weak

[sirskimask]

Mar 2, 2020 4:44:53 GMT -5 iHype. said:

It would be cool and deserved if Heartless managed to return to top 10 and spent a couple more weeks there after having the most disastrous drop from #1 ever at the time.

Despite that fall from #1, the song did end up being a decent hit in the end and having a lot more longevity during its full run as a single than various other #1s. The fact it’s also even nearing top 5 at Pop radio and getting great reception there is so impressive considering it’s pretty explicit and non-Pop friendly and he literally has another single that’s crafted exactly for Pop radio at the moment.

It's pretty crazy Heartless is still doing this while Blinding Lights is already top 10 and After Hours potentially top 20

[fhas]

Mar 2, 2020 12:46:39 GMT -5 tuna said:

Mar 2, 2020 12:44:29 GMT -5 Lukas said:

1) You have a good point about its radio not being incredibly strong, so maybe that would cancel out its dominance in overall points, but getting 50M streams in a week is still way above normal. Especially when we had a week where the #1 streaming song had less than 25M streams not even four months ago.

2) Who said the video wouldn't give it much higher streaming numbers and thus boost its dominance further? According to Kworb, the song got over 6M views both on Saturday and Sunday, with more on Sunday than Saturday. While that number is global, if the official audio us/global views ratio is any indication, it's getting about 3M views on both days in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if the video debuts at #1 on the weekly YouTube chart with about 15M views. If so, it could easily go back to doing about 50,000 points in a week with about 65M streams, versus the 40,000-42,500 points it's doing currently with about 50M streams. Meaning, it could be stronger in this coming week than it did on its fourth week at #1 (49,400 points according to fhas; it got more streams in its fourth week than now I would admit but on its fourth week it didn't have much airplay). Even then, the music video isn't the only thing that could give it another boost. A remix could also work, and I would be surprised if one didn't get released at this rate.

3) You can't define "weak" as comparing it to what it got on its first or second week at #1. I mean you probably could but that's giving off the wrong impression as to what weak really means. That's the equivalent saying Old Town Road was a weak #1 on its 10th week because its points on that week were much less than its 2nd week at #1. 

It’s weak because it’s declining. In a couple weeks it’ll actually be open to competition which makes it much less of a #1. By week 8 of OTR there was still nothing that could stop it

So... using your logic Hello's second week was weak because it fell from 1.1M downloads to 635k?

and you can't really use OTR - the most dominant #1 of the century - as a parameter for strong number ones because nothing is gonna top that song for a long time.

Pulse is forgetting that UGC is barely counted anymore, so The Box's streaming numbers are very impressive (only the 4th song ever to reach 60M on-demand streams). It's obviously not going to be radio monster because male black rappers are not strong on radio for some reason.

[Deleted]

i remember in like early-mid fall, people were saying that the weeknd would underperform once his new era came around. 4 months in, hes on its way to having 2 #1 hits and a successful promo single just from this album

[wavey.]

Mar 2, 2020 13:25:38 GMT -5 @lil14 said:

i remember in like early-mid fall, people were saying that the weeknd would underperform once his new era came around. 4 months in, hes on its way to having 2 #1 hits and a successful promo single just from this album

Right, like he's been hella consistent. I can already tell hes gonna have some real nice visuals with this era. Especially with his tour coming soon.

[tuna]

how many more singles do you think he'll have? After Hours, as well as it did, was a promo. I feel like he's got to have 1 or 2 left on the album

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

'It's Studio 54 All Over Again': Lady Gaga, SZA, Justin Timberlake & Dua Lipa Lead Disco's Radio Revival

3/2/2020 by Gary Trust 

"Don't Start Now" leads the Pop Songs chart & "The Other Side" & "Stupid Love" debut at Nos. 27 & 28.

Two superstar singles launch on Billboard's Pop Songs radio airplay chart (dated March 7), as SZA and Justin Timberlake's "The Other Side" soars in at No. 27 and Lady Gaga's "Stupid Love" starts at No. 28.

Both songs arrived during the chart's Feb. 24-March 1 tracking week: "The Other Side" (on Villa 40/Dreamworks/RCA Records) premiered on Wednesday, Feb. 26, and "Stupid Love" (on Interscope Records) was released on Friday, Feb. 28.

Meanwhile, Dua Lipa's "Don't Start Now" (on Warner Records) tops Pop Songs for a second week, and programmers are welcoming the classic club feel currently infusing the format.

"Disco is coming back in full force," says R Dub, XHTZ (Z90) San Diego director of programming, also citing Doja Cat's "Say So" (on Kemosabe/RCA), which rises 26-23 on Pop Songs. "There's an astounding amount of current songs espousing the disco sound this quarter, and it's only early March. It's Studio 54 all over again."

"Stupid Love" is a "mega-smash," praises WBBM-FM (B96) Chicago assistant program director/music director Erik Bradley. "I think it's going to be massive, and early listener response indicates the same."

Meanwhile, "The Other Side" serves up a "nice throwback vibe," Bradley says of the song, which accompanies Trolls World Tour, whose soundtrack is due March 13, ahead of the film's April 17 premiere. The movie is the sequel to 2016's Trolls, which generated Timberlake's Pop Songs, and Billboard Hot 100, No. 1 "Can't Stop the Feeling!"

"Hopefully, Justin and Trolls will work the same as it did the last time," Bradley muses.

"It's a big week for top 40," says Taylor Jukes, WHYI (Y100) Miami program director, who likewise predicts "The Other Side" as a hit heading into spring. "Lady Gaga's new song is also impressive, and brings you back."

Concurrently, "Stupid Love" and "The Other Side" roar onto the Adult Pop Songs airplay chart at Nos. 24 and 27, respectively (as "Don't Stop Now" bullets at No. 8).

The Pop Songs chart ranks songs by weekly plays on a panel of 169 mainstream top 40-formatted radio stations, as monitored by Nielsen Music/MRC Data. Adult Pop Songs reflects weekly plays on 87 adult top 40 reporters.

All charts (dated March 7) will update on Billboard.com tomorrow (March 3).

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

So, BTS's ON is #1 on Digital with 85k. That's huge in this era.

[Naos]

I can imagine "On" will follow the pattern of every BTS single, but not bad sales at all.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

Hooooly shit, “Say So” is number 2 on Spotify

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

^^Especially considering that the main competition for buying the 2 versions of the song was buying the album itself.

[moonlite]

85k? Wouldn’t that get them pretty close to top 3-5?

[Deleted]

Mar 2, 2020 13:49:20 GMT -5 moonlite said:

85k? Wouldn’t that get them pretty close to top 3-5?

just from sales alone that’s about 145 points which is about 21-25 range

[moonlite]

^ yikes

[Lukas]

Mar 2, 2020 13:49:20 GMT -5 moonlite said:

85k? Wouldn’t that get them pretty close to top 3-5?

Yeah

[tuna]

BTS is holding Billboard hostage to put them above Life Is Good this week

[fhas]

Mar 2, 2020 13:40:23 GMT -5 Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ said:

So, BTS's ON is #1 on Digital with 85k. That's huge in this era.

Well... I had it at 32k using Kworb's pop bars. LMAO.

Using 85k I'd have them at #3 on the Hot 100.

[Myth X]

With these sales BTS will debut in the top 3

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

BTS stay proving that peaks mean nothing in terms of ultimate cultural impact lmao

[billboardtopten]

Mar 2, 2020 13:46:20 GMT -5 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 said:

Hooooly s**t, “Say So” is number 2 on Spotify

i wouldn't be surprised if it went top ten next week

[tuna]

a lot of their songs have peaked in the top 20 but they've made the y/e 0 times and nobody can name a specific BTS song except their stans

[Naos]

Mar 2, 2020 14:33:18 GMT -5 eidde said:

Mar 2, 2020 14:28:09 GMT -5 𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤 said:

BTS stay proving that peaks mean nothing in terms of ultimate cultural impact lmao

wait i'm actually confused do you mean that they have more or less cultural impact than the peaks show

They mean how little peak matters. A song could be in the Top 5/10 one week and drop like a rock in the next, and unless your song is absolutely massive in the first couple weeks, it'll have little impact.

It's probably better to have a song peak in the 20s-30s, or even 40s and stick around for a long time, then a Top 5 song that'll last only three months at best.

[𝕡𝕙𝕖𝕖𝕓𝕤]

BTS is viewed by many people in the same way Björk is viewed by my parents.

“Do you know who Björk is?”
“Yeah, she wears the weird clothes. Didn’t she wear a goose or something once? A bird?”
“Yep! Can you name a song by her?”
“...”

BTS has been on the news and discussed enough that there is name recognition, but I don’t know a single person that could name a song of theirs.

[highho]

I don't disagree with some of the POVs. But BTS is single-handledly bringing KPOP and Asian-pop to an extent, in the global forefront.

I say that's cultural impact, no matter how some view them and their type of music.

[Mathgeek]

Just putting it out there that I’ve watched these fans self-organize for a week to buy albums and singles. They’ve also been actively trying to become better streamers, which globally they have for the whole album.

If they land top 5 for one week only, that was their goal and I respect it. Whether people outside of their fans know these Korean songs or not is a non-issue, especially when the band doesn’t get the same mainstream radio treatment as English artist. Also, they sing in Korean.

So, good for them this week. Like it or not, it’s a big deal to see fans do this.