Billboard Hot 100: 08/08/2020

[Deleted]

So where do y'all see this album in the long run in terms of sales, positions and weeks in the top ten? I see it actually sticking around to the top until The Killers' album drops on August 21. This week she'll pull about 120K, which'll be enough for a second week at number one. The week after (7 August) she'll have competition from Luke Bryan and Da Baby's deluxe edition, but with the album being released physically at Target, and a new song being released by her, I think she might stick around to see a third week at number one because Da Baby's album being mid-week will split his sales in half, and Luke Bryan's previous album did about 100K in its first week, which I think she'll easily top. I then see it spending another week at number one provided there are no major surprise releases. The week after four weeks at number one she'll lose out to The Killers' new album. In the top ten, it'll spend between 10-15 weeks. Seem like pretty solid numbers to me, and should guarantee a top ten placement on the year end list this year.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

kworb's Billboard Radio Songs Estimates 2020/08/01

1(=) The Weeknd - Blinding Lights 139.52(-0.17)
2(=) Harry Styles - Adore You 121.39(+0.01)
3(=) DaBaby - ROCKSTAR (feat. Roddy Ricch) 119.43(+1.08)
4(=) Dua Lipa - Break My Heart 113.65(-0.37)
5(=) Harry Styles - Watermelon Sugar 111.61(+1.71)
6(=) SAINt JHN - Roses (Imanbek Remix) 102.46(+0.88)
7(=) Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go 92.63(+1.44)
8(=) Post Malone - Circles 90.31(-0.01)
9(=) Dua Lipa - Don't Start Now 85.29(-0.27)
10(+1) Lil Mosey - Blueberry Faygo 82.35(-0.10)

14(=) Jack Harlow - WHATS POPPIN (Remix) [feat. DaBaby, Tory Lanez & Lil Wayne] 72.18(+0.83)

21(+1) LOCASH - One Big Country Song 56.08(+1.06)

24(+1) Maddie & Tae - Die From A Broken Heart 54.06(+0.70)

26(+2) BENEE - Supalonely (feat. Gus Dapperton) 50.58(+0.54)

35(=) Doja Cat - Like That (feat. Gucci Mane) 41.39(+0.55)

40(+1) Keith Urban - God Whispered Your Name 37.41(+0.54)

42(+3) Jawsh 685 X Jason Derulo - Savage Love (Laxed-Siren Beat) 36.74(+0.84)

48(+4) DJ Khaled - POPSTAR (feat. Drake) 31.81(+1.45)

49(=) Luke Combs - Lovin' on You 31.02(+0.52)

63(-21) Maroon 5 - Nobody's Love 26.98(-9.53)

69(=) Jason Aldean - Got What I Got 25.85(+0.53)

87(-3) Taylor Swift - cardigan (cabin in candlelight version) 18.53(-1.33)

93(+6) Pop Smoke - The Woo (feat. 50 Cent & Roddy Ricch) 18.05(+0.63)

-(-) Juice WRLD & Marshmello - Come & Go 13.92(+0.59)

-(-) Billie Eilish - my future 14.60(-)

-(-) Dan + Shay - I Should Probably Go To Bed 11.31(-)

-(-) J. Cole - Lion King on Ice 4.62(+1.88) +

[annoymous1]

That rolling effect for Nobody's Love tho 👀 it'll most likely rebound. About time Blueberry Faygo made it to top 10 on radio after lingering outside of it for so long.

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Not that it is relevant to this thread, but in a sense, should be a preview to what we can look forward to in the Hot 100. In the Aria Singles chart, Folklore managed to debut at Cardigan at #1, 5 debuts in the top 10 and all 16 songs managed to debut in the Top 50 chart. The latter is a weekly record. I don't expect Folklore's songs to do that as well in the Hot 100, but only slightly worse.

[thelegends]

Aug 1, 2020 8:39:18 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

Aug 1, 2020 8:33:12 GMT -5 fhas said:

When Billboard announced that they would wait 24 days to change the bundle rules, they basically said: "Hey, we're giving y'all 24 more days to game our system". This week, a song probably is going #1 due to last minute bundles. They're lucky that it's a Taylor Swift song vs. DaBaby/Roddy Ricch, so people will not complain that much.

Next time, they need to change the rules ASAP. There's no need to wait so much.

It takes awhile for them to set-up the system for the new rules in place. You can't do big changes on the spot without warning or without preparing the current system, the charts would've been a mess if they did it right away. 

Never has a chart rule change taken that much time. What happened is that BB had insider info on folklore’s release date before the rule change, and they allowed it to happen.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

Aug 1, 2020 0:49:56 GMT -5 Rhythm Nation said:

Two questions:

-Where will Taylor end up on the list of most hot 100 entries, versus Drake, Nikki, Glee etc?

-Last artist to score a #1 single from their 7th studio album?

Cher did it with her 22nd album  no one can top that.

[Deleted]

prince also did it with his 13th

[m450n]

The thing I have the biggest problem with when it comes to bundles is for songs that are 'droplets.' Because a lot of those times it's just a quick grab for #1 and then it's off the charts. Atleast when it's lead singles/singles a lot of the time the song is sent to radio in an attempt to have longevity.

I also think artists who attempt to game their fans by unknowing making them purchase a cd without their approval seems like exploiting to me.

[Enigma.]

^Yes but most people don't care beyond 2010s here :kii:

Technically, the record is 26th album, as Elton John's Something About the Way You Look Tonight was single from The Big Picture.

[phieaglesfan712]

Blinding Lights is almost certainly going to break Iris's record for most weeks at #1 on radio, and you can thank this weak era of competition for that. If not for BL, we would be breaking the record low #1 audience set by 7 Rings/Without Me/Sucker in March 2019.

[iHype.]

Aug 1, 2020 12:55:57 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Blinding Lights is almost certainly going to break Iris's record for most weeks at #1 on radio, and you can thank this weak era of competition for that. If not for BL, we would be breaking the record low #1 audience set by 7 Rings/Without Me/Sucker in March 2019.

To be fair, Iris was also benefitting from lack of competition with all radio formats not being included yet. "Are You That Somebody?" would've dethroned it for various weeks had Urban/Urban AC formats counted. 

"We Belong Together" was always the real record holder imo, since it had the longest run with every format counting. It was also one of the biggest crossovers on radio being a solid hit at Top 40, Rhythmic, Urban, Urban AC, AC, and even getting some Hot AC support before they played female mainstream Pop. 

[Gary]

Aug 1, 2020 11:29:21 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

^Yes but most people don't care beyond 2010s here

Technically, the record is 26th album, as Elton John's Something About the Way You Look Tonight was single from The Big Picture.

Not really -

Frank Sinatra's 45th album 'The World We Knew' released in 1967 had the #1 hit 'Somethin' Stupid'

[Enigma.]

Whoa!

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Aug 1, 2020 0:49:56 GMT -5 Rhythm Nation said:

Two questions:

-Where will Taylor end up on the list of most hot 100 entries, versus Drake, Nikki, Glee etc?

-Last artist to score a #1 single from their 7th studio album?

Assuming all the songs from Folklore chart in the Hot 100 this week, she'll surpass Nicki's total so far.

[thelegends]

Aug 1, 2020 13:54:41 GMT -5 Gary said:

Aug 1, 2020 11:29:21 GMT -5 Enigma. said:

^Yes but most people don't care beyond 2010s here

Technically, the record is 26th album, as Elton John's Something About the Way You Look Tonight was single from The Big Picture.

Not really -

Frank Sinatra's 45th album 'The World We Knew' released in 1967 had the #1 hit 'Somethin' Stupid'

I don’t think any artist alive rn will reach or be close to 45 albums, so that should be safe for the foreseeable future.

[fhas]

Aug 1, 2020 12:55:57 GMT -5 phieaglesfan712 said:

Blinding Lights is almost certainly going to break Iris's record for most weeks at #1 on radio, and you can thank this weak era of competition for that. If not for BL, we would be breaking the record low #1 audience set by 7 Rings/Without Me/Sucker in March 2019.

The weakest #1 on radio during the entire 2010s decade was 7 rings with 82.0M in its second week at #1 on Radio Songs.

Blinding Lights has nine weeks at #1 with less than 82.0M.

June 6 - 77.4M
June 13 - 76.3M
June 20 - 75.2M
June 27 - 74.3M (weakest radio #1 of at least the past 11.5 years)
July 4 - 76.8M
July 11 - 77.3M
July 18 - 77.3M
July 25 - 76.4M
August 1 - 74.7M

However, this is clearly due to the coronavirus pandemic because BL is a dominant radio #1 with eight consecutive weeks beating the #2 song by more than 10 million audience impressions.

[iHype.]

Lmao, and people complain about artists oversaturating the market today. 

In those days it was easier to do 20+ albums, because with an artist like Frank Sinatra they'd pump out majority albums where the entire tracklist would just be covers of standards/classics.

Not to discredit their craft or anything, but it is obviously easier to just go in the studio and cover 10 songs that are already completely made and call it a day. Whereas now since the 70s/80s for the most part mainstream artists are creating/putting together completely new songs for albums. So yeah, we probably may not see a mainstream artist from these recent generations reach 40 studio albums released or a similar crazy number. 

[dovahduck]

Imagine if Gucci Mane somehow got a number one single on his 102nd project...

[Gary]

[fridayteenage]

Aug 1, 2020 9:42:25 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Aug 1, 2020 8:39:18 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

It takes awhile for them to set-up the system for the new rules in place. You can't do big changes on the spot without warning or without preparing the current system, the charts would've been a mess if they did it right away. 

Never has a chart rule change taken that much time. What happened is that BB had insider info on folklore’s release date before the rule change, and they allowed it to happen.

Taylor Swift IS the music industry.

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

^ ok, we got it..

[Baby Yoda Hot100Fan]

Life is Good returned to #1 in the weekly US YouTube chart. Cardigan debuted at #5, All In at #6, Savage Love rose 12-8, Go Crazy dropped 5-10 and Exile debuted at #24.

[spicymapping]

preds woo

[Deleted]

[Ｓｏｕｎｄｃｌ🕤ｃｋ]

“the 1” is overrated. it will be in the top 5 just because it’s an opening track.

[cedric]

8/8 predictions

[waluigionascooter]

I'm really happy about how likely Falling will drop out this week.

[ificanthaveyou]

Aug 1, 2020 9:42:25 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Aug 1, 2020 8:39:18 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

It takes awhile for them to set-up the system for the new rules in place. You can't do big changes on the spot without warning or without preparing the current system, the charts would've been a mess if they did it right away. 

Never has a chart rule change taken that much time. What happened is that BB had insider info on folklore’s release date before the rule change, and they allowed it to happen.

God you act like they changed the rules for Taylor. The bundle rule has been in place for countless number 1s already. Taylor didn’t do anything wrong, and her #1 is as legit as the rest of them. Did Billboard allow all the other bundles to happen to?

[Naos]

Aug 1, 2020 9:42:25 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Aug 1, 2020 8:39:18 GMT -5 dremolus - solarpunk said:

It takes awhile for them to set-up the system for the new rules in place. You can't do big changes on the spot without warning or without preparing the current system, the charts would've been a mess if they did it right away. 

Never has a chart rule change taken that much time. What happened is that BB had insider info on folklore’s release date before the rule change, and they allowed it to happen.

Is there any evidence of this?

[Au$tin]

Aug 2, 2020 2:36:58 GMT -5 Naos said:

Aug 1, 2020 9:42:25 GMT -5 thelegends said:

Never has a chart rule change taken that much time. What happened is that BB had insider info on folklore’s release date before the rule change, and they allowed it to happen.

Is there any evidence of this?

Zero. In fact, Taylor's own record label didn't even know about the release until hours before it dropped. I highly doubt Billboard would have known and not her own record label. Let's not forget that "cardigan" didn't even have a bundle until later in the week. If Billboard had insider information that Taylor was going to do the bundle route, wouldn't Taylor had done that from day one of release?

thelegends is just pulling shit out of his ass. Billboard waiting to change a rule strictly for Taylor Swift's own benefit is nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory that has plenty of evidence to debunk it.