Chart Inaccuracies/Mistakes

[Private Dancer]

So airplay has been a huge part of how billboard does it chart since the 60s. Here's where I think Billboard may have messed up. How is it songs that are low at radio peak high on the charts?
For example:

Don't Leave Me This Way: Hot 100:#1 Airplay: #7

Hold On:#2 Airplay:#11

I Miss You: #5 Airplay:#9

I dont understand what is going. Can someone explain?

[jebsib]

Sure -

Hold On got to #11 airplay on Radio and Records, but #8 Airplay on Billboard.
(BB had more rhythmic stations on their radio panel in 1990 than R&R, giving slight airplay edge to r&b songs.)
With the song being a multi-week #1 in sales, it evened out to #2 in overall points against other songs whose airplay and sales might not have been in sync either.

Klymaxx was #3 sales; #6 airplay on BB - evened out to #5 overall.

Not sure about Thelma Houston (pre sales charts) but be careful with R&R peaks being 'accurate' during the first 5 years it existed (1973-79) -
Their station samples were very small-market / rock / AC heavy.

[Deleted]

Aug 26, 2020 18:42:24 GMT -5 jebsib said:

With the song being a multi-week #1 in sales, it evened out to #2 in overall points against other songs whose airplay and sales might not have been in sync either.

I think this pretty much sums up the answer.

If the sales were strong enough, it could chart high despite low airplay. A song could have hypothetically peaked at #30 airplay and #1 sales and hit #1 on the Hot 100 if the sales were strong enough. There were quite a few examples in the 90s of songs with low airplay peaks reaching high positions on the Hot 100 due to sales especially because Hot 100 Airplay didn't even factor in some of the major radio formats (such as Urban) until later in the decade. I think it helps to think of it in terms of "airplay points" and "sales points" instead of just looking at the peaks on the component charts and trying to figure out how it reached a certain Hot 100 position with those peaks.

This is probably more common than ever in the streaming era.. there are a lot of songs reaching high positions on the Hot 100 (including #1) with minimal airplay.. so a song could hit #1 on the Hot 100 with very minimal airplay if its streaming numbers are massive. Similar idea.. just a different time period and different methods of consumption.

[leoapp]

2 extreme examples i remember:
Divine (90s RnB trio) with Lately, a 1-week. no. 1 but peaked at no. 2 sales and no. 32 airplay.

Paula Abdul with Promise of a New Day, also a 1-week no. 1, but peaked at no. 25 sales and no. 5 airplay.

Not sure if all those Idol coronation songs (except Kelly's A Moment Like This) with big sales, did they chart on Hot 100 airplay?

[Private Dancer]

And also the SOS band "take your time" peaked at #3 but then on airplay it reached like #11 or like the lower top ten

[chingaling]

Aug 26, 2020 19:32:06 GMT -5 leoapp said:

2 extreme examples i remember:
Divine (90s RnB trio) with Lately, a 1-week. no. 1 but peaked at no. 2 sales and no. 32 airplay.

Paula Abdul with Promise of a New Day, also a 1-week no. 1, but peaked at no. 25 sales and no. 5 airplay.

Not sure if all those Idol coronation songs (except Kelly's A Moment Like This) with big sales, did they chart on Hot 100 airplay?

I never understood the Promise of a new day case. It seems such an illegitimate number one!

[jebsib]

Divine peaked at #8 airplay on BB.

SOS Band had massive sales but low airplay because Radio saw it as dangerously Disco and this was during the Disco-Backlash years.

Promise of a New Day was a confusing case and the result of a stupid 6 month policy of Billboard: It reached #1 on the Hot 100 using the old formula - where its reported sales & airplay were (probably) like #2 and #1 (my guess) - but they were only publishing the NEW and upcoming computerized Sales and Airplay charts (to 'preview' what the charts would be like in a few months). Those charts did not yet feed into the official Hot 100. Thus the confusingly low #25 sales / #5 airplay peaks.

Now - one caveat: Based on those stats, it looks like 'Promise' would have only reached what, #13, #15 - these sales and airplay lists were still only test charts and weren't ready for primetime until 11/3/91. That is to say BB was still working out all the bugs while still adding tons of monitored airplay radio stations; Thus they were incomplete at this stage. So you have to take that, too, into consideration.

[Private Dancer]

Aug 27, 2020 10:01:42 GMT -5 jebsib said:

Divine peaked at #8 airplay on BB.

SOS Band had massive sales but low airplay because Radio saw it as dangerously Disco and this was during the Disco-Backlash years.

Promise of a New Day was a confusing case and the result of a stupid 6 month policy of Billboard: It reached #1 on the Hot 100 using the old formula - where its reported sales & airplay were (probably) like #2 and #1 (my guess) - but they were only publishing the NEW and upcoming computerized Sales and Airplay charts (to 'preview' what the charts would be like in a few months). Those charts did not yet feed into the official Hot 100. Thus the confusingly low #25 sales / #5 airplay peaks.

Now - one caveat: Based on those stats, it looks like 'Promise' would have only reached what, #13, #15 - these sales and airplay lists were still only test charts and weren't ready for primetime until 11/3/91. That is to say BB was still working out all the bugs while still adding tons of monitored airplay radio stations; Thus they were incomplete at this stage. So you have to take that, too, into consideration.

I always knew Promise Of A New Day wasn't a real #1. Cause no one was really playing that song at the time. It was after Rush Rush was everywhere, but POAND flopped.

[KeepDeanWeird]

I think I read Roxette’s ‘Fading Like A Flower’ (#2) had similar metrics to TPOAND. I don’t think it even cracked Top 10 in sales. It peaked at #11 on radio - I just checked. Real tracking exposed the fraud at radio and retail.

[jodakyellow]

Am I the only one who doesn't get what the title of this thread has to do with its content?

[WolfSpear]

This was a pretty big problem around the time of the Nielsen era. Billboard published the old Hot 100 Airplay even though the current Nielsen-run chart existed back in December 1990. You could easily see the discrepancies between the two formulas. Disc jockeys were keen on dropping songs off their playlists after a certain time, even though they were in rotation...

You’ll see most of these differences between Dec ‘90 and June ‘91, after that it’s goodbye to all things old... except for the fact that the Hot 100 continued to rely on the old method until November of 1991.

Once single sales started to dissolve in the late 90’s, you could easy see #1 in sales and a no-show on the big chart. That’s where Digital comes in (late 2004/published in early 2005). As soon as we rely on downloads, the physical chart means nothing to me. It has no significance other than to report a dying trend, in my opinion. It actually plays the same role as physical did during that time. What does #1 in sales mean to you? How do you interpret the stats?

I view Sales as a curiosity. I know that Streaming Songs is a better indicator of popularity. Airplay is Airplay... it doesn’t have the control it used to have during the prime of the industry. Only thing is tells me is what the labels want me to hear... judge it as you’d like.

[Michael1973]

Aug 27, 2020 15:40:50 GMT -5 KeepDeanWeird said:

I think I read Roxette’s ‘Fading Like A Flower’ (#2) had similar metrics to TPOAND. I don’t think it even cracked Top 10 in sales. It peaked at #11 on radio - I just checked. Real tracking exposed the fraud at radio and retail.

My local CHR never touched this song...except once a week during their weekly countdown based on their playlist. That's not at all suspicious, is it?

[HolidayGuy]

brocka- "Promise of a New Day," though, was a legit airplay No. 1 the way Billboard used to compile the charts- meaning, the majority of station reporters had it ranked high on their playlists to give it that No. 1 peak. Plus, I'd hardly say a No. 5 audience-based peak meant no one was playing it. :)_

We wouldn't know how it and other singles at the time performed in BDS and SoundScan metrics had those early charts not been published. So, I don't think it's necessarily fair to frown upon May 1991-November 1991 hits' Hot 100 peaks varying from their airplay and sales rankings.

For Top 40 Radio Monitor, there only were around 100 or so stations that made up that panel for a time. A number of stations continued to submit their playlists the old-fashioned way, and that airplay often would play an integral role in singles' rankings through the mid-'90s and beyond.

[imbondz]

Every Heartbeat by Amy Grant reaching #2 was odd I recall. It had big airplay but hardly any sales. Can’t remember the #’s tho.

[HolidayGuy]

^"Every Heartbeat" peaked at No. 20 on the POS Singles chart, so it wasn't that one. :)

"Good For Me," which peaked after the Hot 100 switched to BDS/SoundScan, had a No. 8 Hot 100 peak, with airplay and sales peaks of 6 and 62, respectively. Small-market-airplay points (airplay compiled the old-fashioned way) likely boosted its H100 position, as it did some of her and other acts' singles.

Another thing to keep in mind for May '91-Nov. '91 hits: when Billboard introduced SoundScan, the latter's coverage was only around 55% of the market. SoundScan would estimate the overall sales number and that's what Billboard went with/reported. So, the estimating may not have been the best.

[imbondz]

Sept 5, 2020 11:54:59 GMT -5 HolidayGuy said:

^"Every Heartbeat" peaked at No. 20 on the POS Singles chart, so it wasn't that one. :)

"Good For Me," which peaked after the Hot 100 switched to BDS/SoundScan, had a No. 8 Hot 100 peak, with airplay and sales peaks of 6 and 62, respectively. Small-market-airplay points (airplay compiled the old-fashioned way) likely boosted its H100 position, as it did some of her and other acts' singles.

Another thing to keep in mind for May '91-Nov. '91 hits: when Billboard introduced SoundScan, the latter's coverage was only around 55% of the market. SoundScan would estimate the overall sales number and that's what Billboard went with/reported. So, the estimating may not have been the best.

But Every Heartbeat still made it to #2 somehow on the hot 100

[HolidayGuy]

^Again, as that was under the old chart methodology, kinda fruitless trying to make sense of its H100 peak compared to its BDS/SoundScan peaks. :)

[dawhite76]

All of these examples are nothing compared to the greatest chart inaccuracy of all time - Wayne Newton's "The Letter" reaching #1 Pop and Country in Cashbox during 1992. On the Pop chart, it even interrupted the reign of "I Will Always Love You" which would become the longest running #1 song ever to that point! The song never charted in any other trade publication (Billboard, R&R, etc.) making its Cashbox success very, um, interesting.

[renfield75]

Sept 10, 2020 9:42:28 GMT -5 dawhite76 said:

All of these examples are nothing compared to the greatest chart inaccuracy of all time - Wayne Newton's "The Letter" reaching #1 Pop and Country in Cashbox during 1992. On the Pop chart, it even interrupted the reign of "I Will Always Love You" which would become the longest running #1 song ever to that point! The song never charted in any other trade publication (Billboard, R&R, etc.) making its Cashbox success very, um, interesting.

Still absolutely baffling. I would love to find out the real story behind that but can't find it anywhere.

[inverse]

Sept 10, 2020 9:42:28 GMT -5 dawhite76 said:

All of these examples are nothing compared to the greatest chart inaccuracy of all time - Wayne Newton's "The Letter" reaching #1 Pop and Country in Cashbox during 1992. On the Pop chart, it even interrupted the reign of "I Will Always Love You" which would become the longest running #1 song ever to that point! The song never charted in any other trade publication (Billboard, R&R, etc.) making its Cashbox success very, um, interesting.

To illustrate how weird this is, a list of all cash box's #1's of 1992 and how they did on billboard

Black Or White - #1

Can't Let Go - #2

Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me - #1

Diamonds and Pearls - #3

To Be With You - #1

Remember The Time - #3

Save The Best For Last - #1

Tears In Heaven - #2

Jump - #1

Bohemian Rhapsody - #2

My Lovin' (You're Never Gonna Get It) - #2

Under the Bridge - #2

I'll Be There - #1

Baby Got Back - #1

This Used To Be My Playground - #1

November Rain - #3

End Of The Road - #1

How Do You Talk To An Angel - #1

I Will Always Love You - #1

The Letter - did not chart ??????

[Gary]

Was 'The Letter' available as a single?

[Private Dancer]

Sept 10, 2020 18:01:14 GMT -5 inverse said:

Sept 10, 2020 9:42:28 GMT -5 dawhite76 said:

All of these examples are nothing compared to the greatest chart inaccuracy of all time - Wayne Newton's "The Letter" reaching #1 Pop and Country in Cashbox during 1992. On the Pop chart, it even interrupted the reign of "I Will Always Love You" which would become the longest running #1 song ever to that point! The song never charted in any other trade publication (Billboard, R&R, etc.) making its Cashbox success very, um, interesting.

To illustrate how weird this is, a list of all cash box's #1's of 1992 and how they did on billboard

Black Or White - #1

Can't Let Go - #2

Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me - #1

Diamonds and Pearls - #3

To Be With You - #1

Remember The Time - #3

Save The Best For Last - #1

Tears In Heaven - #2

Jump - #1

Bohemian Rhapsody - #2

My Lovin' (You're Never Gonna Get It) - #2

Under the Bridge - #2

I'll Be There - #1

Baby Got Back - #1

This Used To Be My Playground - #1

November Rain - #3

End Of The Road - #1

How Do You Talk To An Angel - #1

I Will Always Love You - #1

The Letter - did not chart ??????

So how did save the best for last (best song of that year) hit #1 but #3 in sales?

[dawhite76]

Sept 10, 2020 18:04:48 GMT -5 Gary said:

Was 'The Letter' available as a single?

Interesting question - I don't know whether Cashbox had the same requirement as Billboard that a song needed to be available/sold as a single in order to chart.  That just adds to the mystery.  Billboard's Country chart was pure airplay at that time and "The Letter" never charted there.  If it was sales then that propelled "The Letter" to No. 1, it would have been eligible for Billboard's Hot 100 where it also did not chart.   So, no airplay and no sales in Billboard or R&R equals a # 1 single in Cashbox...bigger than "I Will Always Love You" at its peak?!?

[Deleted]

Sept 11, 2020 16:24:19 GMT -5 dawhite76 said:

Sept 10, 2020 18:04:48 GMT -5 Gary said:

Was 'The Letter' available as a single?

Interesting question - I don't know whether Cashbox had the same requirement as Billboard that a song needed to be available/sold as a single in order to chart.  That just adds to the mystery.  Billboard's Country chart was pure airplay at that time and "The Letter" never charted there.  If it was sales then that propelled "The Letter" to No. 1, it would have been eligible for Billboard's Hot 100 where it also did not chart.   So, no airplay and no sales in Billboard or R&R equals a # 1 single in Cashbox...bigger than "I Will Always Love You" at its peak?!?

I don't think it charted on R&R's airplay-based Country chart either.. seems like blatant chart manipulation.

[jebsib]

It was probably one of two things that made it to print without editorial noticing: A computer error or an internal goof... Cashbox was on its last legs by then (after 50 years it would fold within 4 years) and I don’t recall anyone at that point referencing it for charts stats or countdowns. Probably some inept intern made a mistake, ‘cause no way was Wayne Newton - who had been a has-been for decades by then - challenging “I Will Always Love You”!

[iHype.]

Sept 11, 2020 18:29:46 GMT -5 jebsib said:

It was probably one of two things that made it to print without editorial noticing: A computer error or an internal goof... Cashbox was on its last legs by then (after 50 years it would fold within 4 years) and I don’t recall anyone at that point referencing it for charts stats or countdowns. Probably some inept intern made a mistake, ‘cause no way was Wayne Newton - who had been a has-been for decades by then - challenging “I Will Always Love You”!

It was simply paid arrangements. 

It wasn't a computer/intern mistake because that song actually had an entire big chart run on Cashbox despite never even reaching Hot 100.
A chart run of 77-72-66-62-56-52-50-47-44-41-39-36-33-31-29-27-26-25-10-4-1-4-4-4-4-11-26-48-70-92-99. 

It also did this while listed as an 'album cut' meaning it wasn't even available for sale. It was just completely fraudulent and beyond a mistake that somehow wasn't noticed. 

As you said Cashbox was completely irrelevant by then. I guess it was a last resort since they were going broke and already suspending publication for certain periods at that point according to research. 

[HolidayGuy]

Yes, "The letter" remains the biggest chart anomaly in Cashbox's, and, perhaps, chart history. It is true, that around that time, the publication had lost its luster. For on year in the '90s, there were double-digit weeks in which no chart was published. There also was that "Murder on Music Row" scandal, which, I believe, had to do with bribes and the independent-artist country music singles chart.

The only place I saw "The Letter" appear in Billboard was the CMT video playlist, where it was listed for multiple weeks. There had been a single review of it, too.

[jebsib]

OMG - just saw "The Letter" on Youtube - I don't get the controversy - this was exactly what Top 40 was playing back in 1992.